Author Topic: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.  (Read 2178 times)

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Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2017, 11:54:10 AM »

Offline CelticsQuestFor18

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Now let me be very clear from the beginning before I go on further: Both of these players are likely long shots and even if either (or both) are traded, it won't be until next summer at the earliest. And both will cost A TON in assets (understandably), that is obvious.

Okay, now that I have acknowledged that, let me explain why out of the two, Celtics fans should be "realistically" looking at Porzingis and not Davis. Anthony Davis is a HOF-Talent, and definitely the better of the two as of now.

But here's the problem, Anthony Davis is signed to a BIG contract right now (5 Years/127M - Approximately 27M/Year left on it), and matching salaries will be DIFFICULT. Now I know what many people will say, "Trade Horford to make salaries match". But I think trading our first marquee FA-Signing in franchise history within 2 years will paint a REALLY BAD picture of Boston. Future FA's will be hesitant and the Isaiah trade already came at a shock to many, now imagine if they dealt Horford too (loyalty? what loyalty?). Is it a business? Absolutely. But it still looks bad when it's your first marquee FA in FRANCHISE HISTORY.

THAT to me is the biggest complexity in making a Davis trade (^). Even if you manage to do it without Horford, it would include Tatum, Brown, MOST of our bench, Lakers Pick + more future picks. YIKES... we become the Pelicans with a few stars but no bench and less draft picks going forward.

Meanwhile, Porzingis is currently still on his rookie contract, so matching salaries wouldn't be a problem, and he is also 2 years younger than AD (LOTS of room to grow). Reality is, the Knicks are a dumpster fire and will actually be WORSE once Carmelo is (finally) dealt. Porzingis skipped his exit meeting months ago and was extremely frustrated with the Knicks. Now maybe that was just beef with Phil Jackson solely and now Phil is gone. But guess what. Dolan still exists, and the Knicks FO is still really bad. No way the Knicks are contending anytime soon (even with KP), and they don't seem to have any direction or way to build a contending team around KP.

Another atrocious start next year and a bad season overall could push KP to "pull a Kyrie" and demand out of NYK. Now I understand the Knicks could really hesitate to deal KP to a divisional team (Boston), but Boston still has a lot to offer than most other teams, and here's hoping the "lure of Kyrie" can help us out too.

This also allows us to KEEP Horford, and I think having a saavy, durable veteran in Horford can be big for us in the playoffs until his contract ends, and even then Horford strikes me as someone who would be willing to re-sign cheap if Boston is at the point where they are legitimately contending for banners (and hopefully Warriors dominance ends as they can't sustain their entire team - luxury tax issues).

Also, I question AD's desire to win, as despite the transcendental talent he is, he hasn't led the Pelicans far in recent years and some have questioned whether he tries hard enough on defense at times (it's come up some games over the years). Of course, the Pelicans are a WILD CARD team in that they could be good enough to make a 6-8 seed in the loaded West (Cousins-AD experiment goes relatively well), or it blows up in their face and they are a bad team and Cousins is dealt for value as he's a rental too. Then Davis can demand a trade too next summer, as by then he will have just 2 years left on his deal (because we know he isn't opting in to his 3rd year and so Pelicans may see the Butler and George trades bringing back less and deciding "now is the time" if things go real sour).

I think both Davis and KP will cost a TON in a trade (obviously, and I've stated this above), but I think given how they've played in recent years, Davis right now is obviously the better player and will cost more than KP, so maybe in a KP deal we can keep an asset (or two) whereas for Davis we may have to give up everything (picks, bench, etc.). Mannix even said earlier that to acquire AD would probably require the "biggest package in NBA history", and the C's already overpaid for Kyrie (partially because of Isaiah's injury), so the treasure chest isn't as big anymore (though it can still be enough to formulate maybe one more deal for a star).

So lots to look forward to next season, but I'm sure we can all agree the C's are one star away from legitimately contending for Banner 18 (preferably that star is a young PF/C), and obviously KP and AD will be the names we hear a lot. Here's to hoping the Knicks and Pelicans are dumpster fires next season (but also a tad bit better than Lakers LOL)!

Thoughts? SORRY if this is way too long but I hope this explains my viewpoint better!

I don't think KP is a long shot to be traded. I think there is ZERO CHANCE he gets traded. I was hopeful right around the draft that maybe Phil was crazy enough to move him. Then Phil got fired for even trying. Even if by some miracle he did become available I don't think the Knicks are gonna ship him to a division rival.

As for Horford, I would drive him to the airport myself if it means getting Davis. Two years into his deal looks a lot different trading a guy than one year especially if you are getting back a consensus top 10 NBA player. Locking into a Davis, Kyrie, Hayward trio means we aren't going to have cap space for 5-10 years anyway so the impact on free agents doesn't really matter.

I also think we all need to sit back and realize that KP and Davis aren't really in the same class. Davis is a far better NBA player. He may be two years older, but he's already reached a point that KP may never reach. Granted, KP has a unique skill set but I also feel he gets overrated because of that. He has significant holes in his offensive game in that he doesn't really create much offense for himself. Defensively he struggles to cover mobile bigs. He's good, but he's not the upper level star a lot of people want to make him. 

KP may very well end up an awesome player, but because of where Davis already is its unlikely he's ever that valuable. If you acquire KP he's not good enough, even with Horford to get this team past GS in the next 2-3  years meaning Horford will either be gone or greatly diminished anyway. the sad fact is a prime Horford is not going to be part of our next championship (without some injury luck against GS)

I put zero stock into Davis missing the playoffs in the west. That organization is a laugh stock, he's never played with anybody of consequence. Hawyard and Irving would instantly be far and away the best teammates he's ever had. Its not like he's a locker room cancer, he's be the perfect soldier for that NOP team despite the fact that organization is god awful. The west is hard, last years Celtics team probably isn't a top 4 seed, maybe 6-8, i'm not putting that on Davis. Talent wins in the NBA, GIVE ME TALENT. This character stuff is overrated, that's what we have Brad for.

All this may make it sound like I am against KP. I'm not, it may very well be that KP becomes available and Davis does not in which case go after KP. All I'm saying is that in a perfect world where we have a hot at both don't overthink it, go after Davis.

Wow, TP, that was a great analysis.

Yeah only hope for KP is that he himself gets real frustrated and "pulls a Kyrie" but the likelihood of that happening is less than 1%.

AD is slightly better chance especially if Cousins-AD doesn't work and Cousins is dealt at the deadline as a rental (and by next summer he will have 2 years left on his deal).

But the issue remains that... we add Davis, what's our bench behind Irving, Hayward and Davis? It looks real weak and decimated. Won't have much cap space to add ring chasers besides maybe the exceptions we have.

EDIT: SORRY, I guess I missed the part where you said you'd drive Horford and his 30M/Year to the airport to make the deal happen LOL. That changes what I said in the last paragraph about having a very weak and decimated bench. Just hope it can be done without including both of Brown and Tatum (only one at most).

And that's not at all to say I don't love Horford, guys a professional and is in my view underrated in terms of his impact on the team. But after this year he'll be what, 32? He may very well start declining as soon as next year. And history tells us you need a top 5-10 NBA player to be a real championship contender (aberrations like the Pistons aside). Davis is that.

I too would prefer to only include one of Brown/Tatum + any/all picks necessary. In a vacuum Davis might very well be worth both, but what team out there is gonna offer a former #3 pick, a likely early lottery pick from either LA or SAC, another prime pick in MEM and a smattering of lesser picks and interesting young guys? Very few teams can beta that offer, (Maybe PHILI, if they include Simmons, but would they?).

On another note there may be a way to do this trade for Davis without including Horfrod. Lets say smart sigs an extension at 4x12. Then add either Brown/Tatums salary along with Morris and you are there (or pretty close).  Does a Smart, Tatum, Morris, LA/SAC, MEM + whatever else get it done? It may very well depend on what brown and or Tatum show us this year.

Lastly I don't worry that much about a bench. You put together a good enough team and veterans will want to play here. You'll get ring chasers, an with our pile of first and young guys even in a god father offer we'd still likely retain a few depth pieces.

Doing a S&T involving Smart and then adding those other pieces should work (may need another salary filler piece), but then we'd have a pretty big hole at the guard position behind Irving, unless you think Rozier is ready to start or be the first guy off the bench (Hint: I don't).

I don't either, at least not yet. But maybe Rozier shows something this year. In any case my overall point is this, if you have a chance to get Davis I don't think you should be sitting there saying "Ya, I want Davis. But what about back up PG? What will we possibly do there!"

I mean forget about Driving Smart to the airport, I would give him a piggy back ride to the airport if it got a deal done. GIVE ME DAVIS.

You really think you can piggy back Marcus "I lost 20 pounds and got ripped" Smart?  :P

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2017, 11:56:26 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Anthony Davis is probably the best big man in the NBA.
He was All NBA first team this year and is still getting better. Kristaps is lightyears away from having a similar impact on both ends like Davis.

Davis is a defensive game changer which is why he's so special.

For me, AD is the #1 priority for Ainge. We must be the most appealling team to him as a free agent and we must do what we can to get him, hopefully giving up just one of Tatum/Brown as the main piece.

Horford's contract will be off the books by the time Davis is a free agent anyway.
Only way we're getting him salary wise is to move Horford+Brown or Tatum which is a deal I'd do all day to get AD.

If Anthony Davis becomes available you'd trade anyone for him and not think twice about public image especially if AD hasn't reached his prime yet.

If AD hasn't reached his prime yet, then oh boy..  :o

Just have to root Pelicans are 2nd or 3rd worst team in the league (with Lakers worse obviously)   ;D

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2017, 11:57:33 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Now let me be very clear from the beginning before I go on further: Both of these players are likely long shots and even if either (or both) are traded, it won't be until next summer at the earliest. And both will cost A TON in assets (understandably), that is obvious.

Okay, now that I have acknowledged that, let me explain why out of the two, Celtics fans should be "realistically" looking at Porzingis and not Davis. Anthony Davis is a HOF-Talent, and definitely the better of the two as of now.

But here's the problem, Anthony Davis is signed to a BIG contract right now (5 Years/127M - Approximately 27M/Year left on it), and matching salaries will be DIFFICULT. Now I know what many people will say, "Trade Horford to make salaries match". But I think trading our first marquee FA-Signing in franchise history within 2 years will paint a REALLY BAD picture of Boston. Future FA's will be hesitant and the Isaiah trade already came at a shock to many, now imagine if they dealt Horford too (loyalty? what loyalty?). Is it a business? Absolutely. But it still looks bad when it's your first marquee FA in FRANCHISE HISTORY.

THAT to me is the biggest complexity in making a Davis trade (^). Even if you manage to do it without Horford, it would include Tatum, Brown, MOST of our bench, Lakers Pick + more future picks. YIKES... we become the Pelicans with a few stars but no bench and less draft picks going forward.

Meanwhile, Porzingis is currently still on his rookie contract, so matching salaries wouldn't be a problem, and he is also 2 years younger than AD (LOTS of room to grow). Reality is, the Knicks are a dumpster fire and will actually be WORSE once Carmelo is (finally) dealt. Porzingis skipped his exit meeting months ago and was extremely frustrated with the Knicks. Now maybe that was just beef with Phil Jackson solely and now Phil is gone. But guess what. Dolan still exists, and the Knicks FO is still really bad. No way the Knicks are contending anytime soon (even with KP), and they don't seem to have any direction or way to build a contending team around KP.

Another atrocious start next year and a bad season overall could push KP to "pull a Kyrie" and demand out of NYK. Now I understand the Knicks could really hesitate to deal KP to a divisional team (Boston), but Boston still has a lot to offer than most other teams, and here's hoping the "lure of Kyrie" can help us out too.

This also allows us to KEEP Horford, and I think having a saavy, durable veteran in Horford can be big for us in the playoffs until his contract ends, and even then Horford strikes me as someone who would be willing to re-sign cheap if Boston is at the point where they are legitimately contending for banners (and hopefully Warriors dominance ends as they can't sustain their entire team - luxury tax issues).

Also, I question AD's desire to win, as despite the transcendental talent he is, he hasn't led the Pelicans far in recent years and some have questioned whether he tries hard enough on defense at times (it's come up some games over the years). Of course, the Pelicans are a WILD CARD team in that they could be good enough to make a 6-8 seed in the loaded West (Cousins-AD experiment goes relatively well), or it blows up in their face and they are a bad team and Cousins is dealt for value as he's a rental too. Then Davis can demand a trade too next summer, as by then he will have just 2 years left on his deal (because we know he isn't opting in to his 3rd year and so Pelicans may see the Butler and George trades bringing back less and deciding "now is the time" if things go real sour).

I think both Davis and KP will cost a TON in a trade (obviously, and I've stated this above), but I think given how they've played in recent years, Davis right now is obviously the better player and will cost more than KP, so maybe in a KP deal we can keep an asset (or two) whereas for Davis we may have to give up everything (picks, bench, etc.). Mannix even said earlier that to acquire AD would probably require the "biggest package in NBA history", and the C's already overpaid for Kyrie (partially because of Isaiah's injury), so the treasure chest isn't as big anymore (though it can still be enough to formulate maybe one more deal for a star).

So lots to look forward to next season, but I'm sure we can all agree the C's are one star away from legitimately contending for Banner 18 (preferably that star is a young PF/C), and obviously KP and AD will be the names we hear a lot. Here's to hoping the Knicks and Pelicans are dumpster fires next season (but also a tad bit better than Lakers LOL)!

Thoughts? SORRY if this is way too long but I hope this explains my viewpoint better!

I don't think KP is a long shot to be traded. I think there is ZERO CHANCE he gets traded. I was hopeful right around the draft that maybe Phil was crazy enough to move him. Then Phil got fired for even trying. Even if by some miracle he did become available I don't think the Knicks are gonna ship him to a division rival.

As for Horford, I would drive him to the airport myself if it means getting Davis. Two years into his deal looks a lot different trading a guy than one year especially if you are getting back a consensus top 10 NBA player. Locking into a Davis, Kyrie, Hayward trio means we aren't going to have cap space for 5-10 years anyway so the impact on free agents doesn't really matter.

I also think we all need to sit back and realize that KP and Davis aren't really in the same class. Davis is a far better NBA player. He may be two years older, but he's already reached a point that KP may never reach. Granted, KP has a unique skill set but I also feel he gets overrated because of that. He has significant holes in his offensive game in that he doesn't really create much offense for himself. Defensively he struggles to cover mobile bigs. He's good, but he's not the upper level star a lot of people want to make him. 

KP may very well end up an awesome player, but because of where Davis already is its unlikely he's ever that valuable. If you acquire KP he's not good enough, even with Horford to get this team past GS in the next 2-3  years meaning Horford will either be gone or greatly diminished anyway. the sad fact is a prime Horford is not going to be part of our next championship (without some injury luck against GS)

I put zero stock into Davis missing the playoffs in the west. That organization is a laugh stock, he's never played with anybody of consequence. Hawyard and Irving would instantly be far and away the best teammates he's ever had. Its not like he's a locker room cancer, he's be the perfect soldier for that NOP team despite the fact that organization is god awful. The west is hard, last years Celtics team probably isn't a top 4 seed, maybe 6-8, i'm not putting that on Davis. Talent wins in the NBA, GIVE ME TALENT. This character stuff is overrated, that's what we have Brad for.

All this may make it sound like I am against KP. I'm not, it may very well be that KP becomes available and Davis does not in which case go after KP. All I'm saying is that in a perfect world where we have a hot at both don't overthink it, go after Davis.

Wow, TP, that was a great analysis.

Yeah only hope for KP is that he himself gets real frustrated and "pulls a Kyrie" but the likelihood of that happening is less than 1%.

AD is slightly better chance especially if Cousins-AD doesn't work and Cousins is dealt at the deadline as a rental (and by next summer he will have 2 years left on his deal).

But the issue remains that... we add Davis, what's our bench behind Irving, Hayward and Davis? It looks real weak and decimated. Won't have much cap space to add ring chasers besides maybe the exceptions we have.

EDIT: SORRY, I guess I missed the part where you said you'd drive Horford and his 30M/Year to the airport to make the deal happen LOL. That changes what I said in the last paragraph about having a very weak and decimated bench. Just hope it can be done without including both of Brown and Tatum (only one at most).

And that's not at all to say I don't love Horford, guys a professional and is in my view underrated in terms of his impact on the team. But after this year he'll be what, 32? He may very well start declining as soon as next year. And history tells us you need a top 5-10 NBA player to be a real championship contender (aberrations like the Pistons aside). Davis is that.

I too would prefer to only include one of Brown/Tatum + any/all picks necessary. In a vacuum Davis might very well be worth both, but what team out there is gonna offer a former #3 pick, a likely early lottery pick from either LA or SAC, another prime pick in MEM and a smattering of lesser picks and interesting young guys? Very few teams can beta that offer, (Maybe PHILI, if they include Simmons, but would they?).

On another note there may be a way to do this trade for Davis without including Horfrod. Lets say smart sigs an extension at 4x12. Then add either Brown/Tatums salary along with Morris and you are there (or pretty close).  Does a Smart, Tatum, Morris, LA/SAC, MEM + whatever else get it done? It may very well depend on what brown and or Tatum show us this year.

Lastly I don't worry that much about a bench. You put together a good enough team and veterans will want to play here. You'll get ring chasers, an with our pile of first and young guys even in a god father offer we'd still likely retain a few depth pieces.

Doing a S&T involving Smart and then adding those other pieces should work (may need another salary filler piece), but then we'd have a pretty big hole at the guard position behind Irving, unless you think Rozier is ready to start or be the first guy off the bench (Hint: I don't).

I don't either, at least not yet. But maybe Rozier shows something this year. In any case my overall point is this, if you have a chance to get Davis I don't think you should be sitting there saying "Ya, I want Davis. But what about back up PG? What will we possibly do there!"

Who knows, maybe we can also get back one of the Pelican's backup guard to fill that void too.

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2017, 12:04:43 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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I'm no cap expert, but I didn't think you could do a sign and trade with other players included from the same team.

In a vacuum, Davis is obviously the better player. But to the OP's point, having to match salaries almost makes the trade counterproductive. I mentioned this in another thread, can anyone name a player of Davis' caliber, who only made the playoffs in 1 out of 5 years? The Pelicans have had enough talent on that team to at least make the playoffs. They obviously don't have the other star players needed to compete for a title, but that is something totally different.

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2017, 12:08:28 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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I also believe that Porzingis provides the better value. I would assume the trade would be for Tatum and the Lakers pick. That does seem like a lot to give up. On the other hand, Porzingis would make the Celtics into legitimate title contenders immediately and also during Horford's timeline. Plus, Porzingis is a legitimate PF, as opposed to Tatum, who we hope can grow into that position since his natural SF slot is locked up by Hayward. My only hesitation would be the tendency of players his height breaking down sooner than most.

That starting lineup would be unbelievable:
Irving
Brown (or Smart)
Hayward
Porzingis
Horford

If Porzingis could rebound better, he could be a legit stud. But he's a spectacular player right now too.

That is a fantastic looking lineup though, with bruisers as depth (like Baynes). Rebounding would still be a bit of a concern, and possibly defense too unless KP took a step in improving it.

I'm no cap expert, but I didn't think you could do a sign and trade with other players included from the same team.

In a vacuum, Davis is obviously the better player. But to the OP's point, having to match salaries almost makes the trade counterproductive. I mentioned this in another thread, can anyone name a player of Davis' caliber, who only made the playoffs in 1 out of 5 years? The Pelicans have had enough talent on that team to at least make the playoffs. They obviously don't have the other star players needed to compete for a title, but that is something totally different.

The lack of playoff appearances is a little concerning, but keep in mind too that the West is just loaded (way more competitive than East). Even before Warriors, team like the Spurs, Lakers (before Kobe retired), OKC, Clippers were huge threats.

But yeah I'm no cap expert either but if that's true, then welp...  :(

(@saltlover, paging you!)


Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2017, 12:20:04 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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I understand the West is loaded, but most of those teams don't have a top 5 player on their team either. Just asking to make the playoffs shouldn't be asking for too much, especially when 8 out of 15 teams in the West make the playoffs. There is no reason for the Pelicans to miss the playoffs again, especially after the off seasons for Utah and Memphis. You would think New Orleans and Minnesota should replace them in the playoffs.

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2017, 12:35:22 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I also believe that Porzingis provides the better value. I would assume the trade would be for Tatum and the Lakers pick. That does seem like a lot to give up. On the other hand, Porzingis would make the Celtics into legitimate title contenders immediately and also during Horford's timeline. Plus, Porzingis is a legitimate PF, as opposed to Tatum, who we hope can grow into that position since his natural SF slot is locked up by Hayward. My only hesitation would be the tendency of players his height breaking down sooner than most.

That starting lineup would be unbelievable:
Irving
Brown (or Smart)
Hayward
Porzingis
Horford

If Porzingis could rebound better, he could be a legit stud. But he's a spectacular player right now too.

That is a fantastic looking lineup though, with bruisers as depth (like Baynes). Rebounding would still be a bit of a concern, and possibly defense too unless KP took a step in improving it.

I'm no cap expert, but I didn't think you could do a sign and trade with other players included from the same team.

In a vacuum, Davis is obviously the better player. But to the OP's point, having to match salaries almost makes the trade counterproductive. I mentioned this in another thread, can anyone name a player of Davis' caliber, who only made the playoffs in 1 out of 5 years? The Pelicans have had enough talent on that team to at least make the playoffs. They obviously don't have the other star players needed to compete for a title, but that is something totally different.

The lack of playoff appearances is a little concerning, but keep in mind too that the West is just loaded (way more competitive than East). Even before Warriors, team like the Spurs, Lakers (before Kobe retired), OKC, Clippers were huge threats.

But yeah I'm no cap expert either but if that's true, then welp...  :(

(@saltlover, paging you!)

I couldn't quite follow the thread enough to figure out what the sign-and-trade question is.  Just remember two things with regards to sign-and-trades:

1) If the Celtics are sending out the S&T, he only counts 50% for outgoing matching salary (assuming he gets a reasonable raise), but counts 100% for incoming salary.  So if you're sending out Smart, and think he'll get $15 million next year, that's only $7.5 million the Celtics can use to match.

2) New Orleans is subject to the hard cap if they add a player in a S&T.  Based on their current salaries, they will be right at the hard cap level if they keep Cousins next year (and he signs for at or near the max).  So a Davis trade needs to not add any payroll to the Pelicans more than what Davis' salary is.  This becomes very difficult when combined with point one above, since a S&T player already doesn't count fully for outgoing salary.

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2017, 12:40:15 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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I also believe that Porzingis provides the better value. I would assume the trade would be for Tatum and the Lakers pick. That does seem like a lot to give up. On the other hand, Porzingis would make the Celtics into legitimate title contenders immediately and also during Horford's timeline. Plus, Porzingis is a legitimate PF, as opposed to Tatum, who we hope can grow into that position since his natural SF slot is locked up by Hayward. My only hesitation would be the tendency of players his height breaking down sooner than most.

That starting lineup would be unbelievable:
Irving
Brown (or Smart)
Hayward
Porzingis
Horford

If Porzingis could rebound better, he could be a legit stud. But he's a spectacular player right now too.

That is a fantastic looking lineup though, with bruisers as depth (like Baynes). Rebounding would still be a bit of a concern, and possibly defense too unless KP took a step in improving it.

I'm no cap expert, but I didn't think you could do a sign and trade with other players included from the same team.

In a vacuum, Davis is obviously the better player. But to the OP's point, having to match salaries almost makes the trade counterproductive. I mentioned this in another thread, can anyone name a player of Davis' caliber, who only made the playoffs in 1 out of 5 years? The Pelicans have had enough talent on that team to at least make the playoffs. They obviously don't have the other star players needed to compete for a title, but that is something totally different.

The lack of playoff appearances is a little concerning, but keep in mind too that the West is just loaded (way more competitive than East). Even before Warriors, team like the Spurs, Lakers (before Kobe retired), OKC, Clippers were huge threats.

But yeah I'm no cap expert either but if that's true, then welp...  :(

(@saltlover, paging you!)

I couldn't quite follow the thread enough to figure out what the sign-and-trade question is.  Just remember two things with regards to sign-and-trades:

1) If the Celtics are sending out the S&T, he only counts 50% for outgoing matching salary (assuming he gets a reasonable raise), but counts 100% for incoming salary.  So if you're sending out Smart, and think he'll get $15 million next year, that's only $7.5 million the Celtics can use to match.

2) New Orleans is subject to the hard cap if they add a player in a S&T.  Based on their current salaries, they will be right at the hard cap level if they keep Cousins next year (and he signs for at or near the max).  So a Davis trade needs to not add any payroll to the Pelicans more than what Davis' salary is.  This becomes very difficult when combined with point one above, since a S&T player already doesn't count fully for outgoing salary.

TP! Thanks for that!

We were basically thinking of ways to acquire AD without including Horford or decimating the bench entirely, and thought a Smart S&T might an option (with some other assets obviously), but I guess it's not that easy still.  :(

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2017, 01:22:22 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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(ALSO PUT THIS AS A FANPOST ON THIS SITE RECENTLY; YOU MAY HAVE READ BEFORE)

Now let me be very clear from the beginning before I go on further: Both of these players are likely long shots and even if either (or both) are traded, it won't be until next summer at the earliest. And both will cost A TON in assets (understandably), that is obvious.

Okay, now that I have acknowledged that, let me explain why out of the two, Celtics fans should be "realistically" looking at Porzingis and not Davis. Anthony Davis is a HOF-Talent, and definitely the better of the two as of now.

But here's the problem, Anthony Davis is signed to a BIG contract right now (5 Years/127M - Approximately 27M/Year left on it), and matching salaries will be DIFFICULT. Now I know what many people will say, "Trade Horford to make salaries match". But I think trading our first marquee FA-Signing in franchise history within 2 years will paint a REALLY BAD picture of Boston. Future FA's will be hesitant and the Isaiah trade already came at a shock to many, now imagine if they dealt Horford too (loyalty? what loyalty?). Is it a business? Absolutely. But it still looks bad when it's your first marquee FA in FRANCHISE HISTORY.

THAT to me is the biggest complexity in making a Davis trade (^). Even if you manage to do it without Horford, it would include Tatum, Brown, MOST of our bench, Lakers Pick + more future picks. YIKES... we become the Pelicans with a few stars but no bench and less draft picks going forward.

Meanwhile, Porzingis is currently still on his rookie contract, so matching salaries wouldn't be a problem, and he is also 2 years younger than AD (LOTS of room to grow). Reality is, the Knicks are a dumpster fire and will actually be WORSE once Carmelo is (finally) dealt. Porzingis skipped his exit meeting months ago and was extremely frustrated with the Knicks. Now maybe that was just beef with Phil Jackson solely and now Phil is gone. But guess what. Dolan still exists, and the Knicks FO is still really bad. No way the Knicks are contending anytime soon (even with KP), and they don't seem to have any direction or way to build a contending team around KP.

Another atrocious start next year and a bad season overall could push KP to "pull a Kyrie" and demand out of NYK. Now I understand the Knicks could really hesitate to deal KP to a divisional team (Boston), but Boston still has a lot to offer than most other teams, and here's hoping the "lure of Kyrie" can help us out too.

This also allows us to KEEP Horford, and I think having a saavy, durable veteran in Horford can be big for us in the playoffs until his contract ends, and even then Horford strikes me as someone who would be willing to re-sign cheap if Boston is at the point where they are legitimately contending for banners (and hopefully Warriors dominance ends as they can't sustain their entire team - luxury tax issues).

Also, I question AD's desire to win, as despite the transcendental talent he is, he hasn't led the Pelicans far in recent years and some have questioned whether he tries hard enough on defense at times (it's come up some games over the years). Of course, the Pelicans are a WILD CARD team in that they could be good enough to make a 6-8 seed in the loaded West (Cousins-AD experiment goes relatively well), or it blows up in their face and they are a bad team and Cousins is dealt for value as he's a rental too. Then Davis can demand a trade too next summer, as by then he will have just 2 years left on his deal (because we know he isn't opting in to his 3rd year and so Pelicans may see the Butler and George trades bringing back less and deciding "now is the time" if things go real sour).

I think both Davis and KP will cost a TON in a trade (obviously, and I've stated this above), but I think given how they've played in recent years, Davis right now is obviously the better player and will cost more than KP, so maybe in a KP deal we can keep an asset (or two) whereas for Davis we may have to give up everything (picks, bench, etc.). Mannix even said earlier that to acquire AD would probably require the "biggest package in NBA history", and the C's already overpaid for Kyrie (partially because of Isaiah's injury), so the treasure chest isn't as big anymore (though it can still be enough to formulate maybe one more deal for a star).

So lots to look forward to next season, but I'm sure we can all agree the C's are one star away from legitimately contending for Banner 18 (preferably that star is a young PF/C), and obviously KP and AD will be the names we hear a lot. Here's to hoping the Knicks and Pelicans are dumpster fires next season (but also a tad bit better than Lakers LOL)!

Thoughts? SORRY if this is way too long but I hope this explains my viewpoint better!

I don't think KP is a long shot to be traded. I think there is ZERO CHANCE he gets traded. I was hopeful right around the draft that maybe Phil was crazy enough to move him. Then Phil got fired for even trying. Even if by some miracle he did become available I don't think the Knicks are gonna ship him to a division rival.

As for Horford, I would drive him to the airport myself if it means getting Davis. Two years into his deal looks a lot different trading a guy than one year especially if you are getting back a consensus top 10 NBA player. Locking into a Davis, Kyrie, Hayward trio means we aren't going to have cap space for 5-10 years anyway so the impact on free agents doesn't really matter.

I also think we all need to sit back and realize that KP and Davis aren't really in the same class. Davis is a far better NBA player. He may be two years older, but he's already reached a point that KP may never reach. Granted, KP has a unique skill set but I also feel he gets overrated because of that. He has significant holes in his offensive game in that he doesn't really create much offense for himself. Defensively he struggles to cover mobile bigs. He's good, but he's not the upper level star a lot of people want to make him. 

KP may very well end up an awesome player, but because of where Davis already is its unlikely he's ever that valuable. If you acquire KP he's not good enough, even with Horford to get this team past GS in the next 2-3  years meaning Horford will either be gone or greatly diminished anyway. the sad fact is a prime Horford is not going to be part of our next championship (without some injury luck against GS)

I put zero stock into Davis missing the playoffs in the west. That organization is a laugh stock, he's never played with anybody of consequence. Hawyard and Irving would instantly be far and away the best teammates he's ever had. Its not like he's a locker room cancer, he's be the perfect soldier for that NOP team despite the fact that organization is god awful. The west is hard, last years Celtics team probably isn't a top 4 seed, maybe 6-8, i'm not putting that on Davis. Talent wins in the NBA, GIVE ME TALENT. This character stuff is overrated, that's what we have Brad for.

All this may make it sound like I am against KP. I'm not, it may very well be that KP becomes available and Davis does not in which case go after KP. All I'm saying is that in a perfect world where we have a hot at both don't overthink it, go after Davis.

Wow, TP, that was a great analysis.

Yeah only hope for KP is that he himself gets real frustrated and "pulls a Kyrie" but the likelihood of that happening is less than 1%.

AD is slightly better chance especially if Cousins-AD doesn't work and Cousins is dealt at the deadline as a rental (and by next summer he will have 2 years left on his deal).

But the issue remains that... we add Davis, what's our bench behind Irving, Hayward and Davis? It looks real weak and decimated. Won't have much cap space to add ring chasers besides maybe the exceptions we have.

EDIT: SORRY, I guess I missed the part where you said you'd drive Horford and his 30M/Year to the airport to make the deal happen LOL. That changes what I said in the last paragraph about having a very weak and decimated bench. Just hope it can be done without including both of Brown and Tatum (only one at most).

And that's not at all to say I don't love Horford, guys a professional and is in my view underrated in terms of his impact on the team. But after this year he'll be what, 32? He may very well start declining as soon as next year. And history tells us you need a top 5-10 NBA player to be a real championship contender (aberrations like the Pistons aside). Davis is that.

I too would prefer to only include one of Brown/Tatum + any/all picks necessary. In a vacuum Davis might very well be worth both, but what team out there is gonna offer a former #3 pick, a likely early lottery pick from either LA or SAC, another prime pick in MEM and a smattering of lesser picks and interesting young guys? Very few teams can beta that offer, (Maybe PHILI, if they include Simmons, but would they?).

On another note there may be a way to do this trade for Davis without including Horfrod. Lets say smart sigs an extension at 4x12. Then add either Brown/Tatums salary along with Morris and you are there (or pretty close).  Does a Smart, Tatum, Morris, LA/SAC, MEM + whatever else get it done? It may very well depend on what brown and or Tatum show us this year.

Lastly I don't worry that much about a bench. You put together a good enough team and veterans will want to play here. You'll get ring chasers, an with our pile of first and young guys even in a god father offer we'd still likely retain a few depth pieces.

Doing a S&T involving Smart and then adding those other pieces should work (may need another salary filler piece), but then we'd have a pretty big hole at the guard position behind Irving, unless you think Rozier is ready to start or be the first guy off the bench (Hint: I don't).

I don't either, at least not yet. But maybe Rozier shows something this year. In any case my overall point is this, if you have a chance to get Davis I don't think you should be sitting there saying "Ya, I want Davis. But what about back up PG? What will we possibly do there!"

I mean forget about Driving Smart to the airport, I would give him a piggy back ride to the airport if it got a deal done. GIVE ME DAVIS.

You really think you can piggy back Marcus "I lost 20 pounds and got ripped" Smart?  :P

I didn't say it would be quick.....

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2017, 01:26:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Tatum, Brown, Morris, Yabusele, and Ojeleye/Nader is enough salary to acquire Davis right now (I don't know next summer with the salary increases how it shakes out).  If Boston gets the LAL pick and it was traded after the draft so the salary could count, Boston could eliminate the last 3 (or either of the first two).  Thus, Tatum, Brown, LAL is probably close to enough salary and probably gets NO enough value.  So Boston would be Horford, Davis, Hayward, Smart, Irving with Morris, Baynes, Rozier, Yabu, BOS 18, Ojeleye/Nader, Theis, White, Allen and then whatever other free agents Boston added for the bench. 

That is a championship level team, Boston isn't with the Zinger as even with him Boston isn't in GS' class even if Brown or someone else could be held back for value (the Zinger will require at least LAL and 1 of Tatum/Brown). 
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Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2017, 02:03:13 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Tatum, Brown, Morris, Yabusele, and Ojeleye/Nader is enough salary to acquire Davis right now (I don't know next summer with the salary increases how it shakes out).  If Boston gets the LAL pick and it was traded after the draft so the salary could count, Boston could eliminate the last 3 (or either of the first two).  Thus, Tatum, Brown, LAL is probably close to enough salary and probably gets NO enough value.  So Boston would be Horford, Davis, Hayward, Smart, Irving with Morris, Baynes, Rozier, Yabu, BOS 18, Ojeleye/Nader, Theis, White, Allen and then whatever other free agents Boston added for the bench. 

That is a championship level team, Boston isn't with the Zinger as even with him Boston isn't in GS' class even if Brown or someone else could be held back for value (the Zinger will require at least LAL and 1 of Tatum/Brown).

Warriors hopefully will not be able to sustain their team in 3 years as luxury tax issues come into play and Klay and Draymond will need new deals

But if the C's add Davis next summer, then they could be pretty dang close to Golden State by 2019.

It will be hard to choose (if LAL Pick conveys) whether you want to trade Tatum AND Brown, OR one of the two + Yabu, Morris (rental) and Nader...

But I think NOP would prefer Brown + Tatum (sucks for us...)

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #26 on: September 22, 2017, 02:35:31 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Regarding trading Horford, I think Danny's reputation is probably solidified no matter what happens with Al. In trade discussions he literally has no loyalty.  He also has a reputation for building good teams.

For me, KP is a nice piece. I would have given the #3 for him. Davis is a guy who could make our core great, though.


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Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #27 on: September 22, 2017, 02:56:12 PM »

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Regarding trading Horford, I think Danny's reputation is probably solidified no matter what happens with Al. In trade discussions he literally has no loyalty.  He also has a reputation for building good teams.

For me, KP is a nice piece. I would have given the #3 for him. Davis is a guy who could make our core great, though.

That is what it comes down to for me. KP makes us a very, very good team going forward. AD makes us a great one.

The biggest difference in what they would provide the team in my eyes is rebounding. If we added KP, we would still struggle a bit on the glass. Adding AD gives us a glass eater who would thrive in our offense and defense.
My 2017 Draft Rankings:       My 2017 FA Celtic Rankings:
1.) Markelle Fultz                   1.) Gordon Hayward
2.) Jayson Tatum                   2.) Blake Griffin
3.) Lonzo Ball                           3.) No other realistic options
4.) Josh Jackson                          move the needle much
5.) Lauri Markkanen

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2017, 03:42:48 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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if the deal comes around .....one wants to jump ship.....your ready to react .  If Porzingis wants out before Davis , then you have to think hard about getting him. 

Im hoping Davis falls from his team sooner .

Re: Porzingis Is The Wiser Trade Target For Ainge, Not AD. Here's Why.
« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2017, 04:26:24 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 The Zinger is a huge injury risk. Already missed a lot of games, and the long term problems for a player that height have been documented.