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ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« on: September 21, 2017, 07:43:10 AM »

Offline Big333223

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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20754510/preseason-bpi-reveal-shows-just-how-dominant-golden-state-warriors-be

This will be more or less interesting depending on how much stock you put into something like BPI, but here it is. Warriors are #1 and then there's a big gap between them and the Rockets, followed closely by the Spurs and the Celtics. Then it's the Thunder and the Cavs at #5 and #6. Because the Celtics are the top team in the East, they have the second best odds to win the championship.

There's also some stuff about that Brooklyn pick and the Lakers/Kings pick:
Quote
According to BPI, that pick has an 11 percent chance of being the No. 1 overall pick, a 33 percent chance of being in the top three and a 59 percent chance of being in the top five.

If those are lower than you were expecting, that's because BPI actually doesn't think Brooklyn is the worst team in the NBA. That honor belongs to the Chicago Bulls (-7.2), who dealt Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves this offseason. The Atlanta Hawks, who lost Paul Millsap and Tim Hardaway Jr. and traded Dwight Howard, are the second-worst team in the league at -5.8.

It's no surprise, then, that the Bulls and Hawks also have the best shot at the No. 1 overall pick next summer, with a 20.9 percent and 14.8 percent chance, respectively.

While Boston might keep an eye on the pick it traded to Cleveland, much more important to the Celtics is the Lakers' pick, which becomes theirs if it falls between 2-5 as a result of the trade the 76ers made with the Celtics for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft. That pick has an 18.3 percent chance of falling in the zone that would result in the Sixers shipping it to Boston. The Celtics will receive a different pick in 2019 if the Lakers' pick falls outside that zone.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2017, 08:22:29 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds. 
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Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 08:35:45 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Two things that stand out to me is the expectation of Boston to win the championship to be twice as big as the chance for Cleveland. And that there's only an 18% chance that the Lakers' pick will fall to the Celtics seems rather low.

Also I think the estimation of the strength of all the teams by this model is extremely good. In fact the prediction of the 16 playoff teams (all teams > 41 wins) might turn out to be exactly accurate, though I think Memphis will sneak in. I do expect that the weak teams in the west (Dallas, LA Lakers, Sacramento, Phoenix) will end up with less wins than this model predicts.

By the way, if this model is accurate then Ainge really shouldn't have traded the Nets' pick in stead of the Lakers' pick.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2017, 08:41:35 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2017, 08:49:45 AM »

Offline Moranis

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.
Ah, but they not only have to beat the Warriors they have to beat at least 1 of the other western teams (and maybe 2) and still beat the Eastern team in the Finals.  I mean they project the Thunder as the 4th seed in the West.  If ESPN gets everything right, they would have to beat the Wolves, the Warriors, and the Rockets (or Spurs) just to make the Finals where they would meet Boston (or Cleveland).  There is no way the Thunder should have greater championship odds than Cleveland for sure and probably Toronto, Washington, and Milwaukee just given what a gauntlet the west is presumed to be at the top (I think the bottom of the west is pretty weak overall but those 5 teams all could be great teams). 
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Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2017, 09:10:15 AM »

Offline wdleehi

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Interesting they like Toronto more then DC.   


I could see Toronto having a better regular season then DC, but no way do I like them better in the playoffs.   

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Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2017, 09:13:17 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.
Ah, but they not only have to beat the Warriors they have to beat at least 1 of the other western teams (and maybe 2) and still beat the Eastern team in the Finals.  I mean they project the Thunder as the 4th seed in the West.  If ESPN gets everything right, they would have to beat the Wolves, the Warriors, and the Rockets (or Spurs) just to make the Finals where they would meet Boston (or Cleveland).  There is no way the Thunder should have greater championship odds than Cleveland for sure and probably Toronto, Washington, and Milwaukee just given what a gauntlet the west is presumed to be at the top (I think the bottom of the west is pretty weak overall but those 5 teams all could be great teams).
Yeah, there's no question that the western teams have it harder.  But that's because they're considered to be better.  So whether they have to beat the Warriors in the semis or quarters or finals, it boils down to who has the better odds? 

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2017, 10:01:10 AM »

Online bdm860

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.
Ah, but they not only have to beat the Warriors they have to beat at least 1 of the other western teams (and maybe 2) and still beat the Eastern team in the Finals.  I mean they project the Thunder as the 4th seed in the West.  If ESPN gets everything right, they would have to beat the Wolves, the Warriors, and the Rockets (or Spurs) just to make the Finals where they would meet Boston (or Cleveland).  There is no way the Thunder should have greater championship odds than Cleveland for sure and probably Toronto, Washington, and Milwaukee just given what a gauntlet the west is presumed to be at the top (I think the bottom of the west is pretty weak overall but those 5 teams all could be great teams).
Yeah, there's no question that the western teams have it harder.  But that's because they're considered to be better.  So whether they have to beat the Warriors in the semis or quarters or finals, it boils down to who has the better odds?

I'm with Moranis here.  Now this is a very basic, high level example of how I see it, assuming HOU/SAS are better than anybody out of the East.  Using the ESPN rankings and assigning very unscientific odds of victory to the playoff matchups.

Warriors:
Round 1-POR 99%
Round 2-OKC/MIN 99%
Round 3-HOU/SAS 99%
Round 4-BOS/CLE-99%
Overall odds (99%*99%*99%*99%) = 96.1%


Rockets:
Round 1-LAC 90%
Round 2-SAS 50%
Round 3-GS 1%
Round 4-BOS/CLE 60%
Overall odds: 0.27%

Boston:
Round 1-CHO 90%
Round 2-WAS/MIL 65%
Round 3-CLE 50%
Round 4-GS 1%
Overall odds: 0.29%

This is how Boston (and Cleveland) could have better odds of winning a championship even if HOU/SAS are better.  Of course playing with the %'s can change the outlook, this is just an example so don't focus on the actual %'s, just a general idea of how I see it.

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Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2017, 10:31:58 AM »

Offline Big333223

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To clarify, the BPI projects the Celtics to be the 4th best team but gives them the 2nd best odds at the title, because they're in the East and the Warriors are such heavy favorites in the West.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2017, 10:45:07 AM »

Offline Phantom255x

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For CLE, A Lot Really Hinges On Rose + IT

Right now, Isaiah is expected to be healthy and back 2nd half of season so Cavs should still beat us in ECF (in 6, maybe 7 games).

BUT if Rose is only a shell of himself and/or injury prone, and Isaiahís injury is A LOT WORSE than expected (to the point where even when he returns he isnít 100% at all), then that makes it a LEGIT possibility.

Sure, they may have Lebron, and obviously Lebron on your team = ECF appereance guaranteed. But with no Irving and a subpar IT and Rose, it will be real difficult unless Kevin Love starts averaging like 30 PPG (though I acknowledge Love usually kills us, but now we have a team with some bruisers and younger blood too).

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2017, 12:08:43 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.
Ah, but they not only have to beat the Warriors they have to beat at least 1 of the other western teams (and maybe 2) and still beat the Eastern team in the Finals.  I mean they project the Thunder as the 4th seed in the West.  If ESPN gets everything right, they would have to beat the Wolves, the Warriors, and the Rockets (or Spurs) just to make the Finals where they would meet Boston (or Cleveland).  There is no way the Thunder should have greater championship odds than Cleveland for sure and probably Toronto, Washington, and Milwaukee just given what a gauntlet the west is presumed to be at the top (I think the bottom of the west is pretty weak overall but those 5 teams all could be great teams).
Yeah, there's no question that the western teams have it harder.  But that's because they're considered to be better.  So whether they have to beat the Warriors in the semis or quarters or finals, it boils down to who has the better odds?

I'm with Moranis here.  Now this is a very basic, high level example of how I see it, assuming HOU/SAS are better than anybody out of the East.  Using the ESPN rankings and assigning very unscientific odds of victory to the playoff matchups.

Warriors:
Round 1-POR 99%
Round 2-OKC/MIN 99%
Round 3-HOU/SAS 99%
Round 4-BOS/CLE-99%
Overall odds (99%*99%*99%*99%) = 96.1%


Rockets:
Round 1-LAC 90%
Round 2-SAS 50%
Round 3-GS 1%
Round 4-BOS/CLE 60%
Overall odds: 0.27%

Boston:
Round 1-CHO 90%
Round 2-WAS/MIL 65%
Round 3-CLE 50%
Round 4-GS 1%
Overall odds: 0.29%

This is how Boston (and Cleveland) could have better odds of winning a championship even if HOU/SAS are better.  Of course playing with the %'s can change the outlook, this is just an example so don't focus on the actual %'s, just a general idea of how I see it.
Yeah, we're definitely splitting hairs here.  I'm not actually seeing the full tables of odds so I don't know how much different the odds for say, Houston are compared to say Wash.  Probably not too far off?

Anway, given that the Warriors odds are 57%!, I am guessing the biggest component of odds to win the title is who has the best chance to beat them (since any team that wants to win is almost assured to have to go through the Warriors).

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2017, 12:25:22 PM »

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For CLE, A Lot Really Hinges On Rose + IT

Right now, Isaiah is expected to be healthy and back 2nd half of season so Cavs should still beat us in ECF (in 6, maybe 7 games).

BUT if Rose is only a shell of himself and/or injury prone, and Isaiahís injury is A LOT WORSE than expected (to the point where even when he returns he isnít 100% at all), then that makes it a LEGIT possibility.

Sure, they may have Lebron, and obviously Lebron on your team = ECF appereance guaranteed. But with no Irving and a subpar IT and Rose, it will be real difficult unless Kevin Love starts averaging like 30 PPG (though I acknowledge Love usually kills us, but now we have a team with some bruisers and younger blood too).
true, a lot hinges on Rose and IT but I do think the C's are in a much better position this year to compete with them - roster-wise.  how the new C's roster comes together remains to be seen.

in our favor:
This year's roster is more-athletic overall than last year's roster.  We have beefier guys to bang with them (not necessarily taller unfortunately but even Semi and Yabu offer more beef to bang on the boards than KO did last year).

We now have a PG that can render IT a negative on the floor as opposed to us having that done to us.  IT's D isn't going to be any better this year and as we all saw Kyrie can just pick him apart at will.  Cleveland will have to adjust to counter other teams going at IT on offense to drive him off the court.  IT will also be contending with Smart, Rozier and Brown guarding him --> players who are much bigger and either just as quick or more muscular which will cut down his scoring.

We have a starting SF who's actually effective on offense who Lebron will actually have to guard.  that will help tire him in the playoffs a bit more and take him off the court for longer rests.  getting him off the court for an extra 4-5 minutes a game will make a difference.

C's have more than just 1 reliable scorer this year.  Hayward and Kyrie are a solid 1-2 scoring punch.  add Horford as an option-3 and he's very solid.  granted we don't have AB or KO to add shooting but they were very hot-and-cold shooters.  We should be able to get a good scoring night out of one or two of Brown/Tatum/Morris/Rozier on a given night. 




Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2017, 12:27:39 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I'd be curious how they rated Thomas in this thing.  If the BPI is based on the regular season and they don't expect Thomas to play for a few months it makes a lot of sense, though that might alter the actual finals odds if Thomas is back and healthy for the playoffs.  And I really don't see how Boston and Cleveland aren't the 2nd and 3rd favorites for the title.  I get that the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder, and Wolves are all going to be very good teams, but with the Warriors such heavy favorites there is no way any other western team should be ahead of at a minimum Boston and Cleveland.  Frankly, Toronto and Washington probably should also have better odds to make the finals than any of those other western teams.  Maybe even the Bucks.  That is what a dominant team like the Warriors should do to the odds.
Are these the odds to make the finals, or win the title though?  I completely agree that teams in the east have a higher chance of making the finals.  But the odds are for winning the title.  So in that case, either side presumably would have to beat the Warriors.  So I can see the odds for other western teams being higher if the thought is that they are better.
Ah, but they not only have to beat the Warriors they have to beat at least 1 of the other western teams (and maybe 2) and still beat the Eastern team in the Finals.  I mean they project the Thunder as the 4th seed in the West.  If ESPN gets everything right, they would have to beat the Wolves, the Warriors, and the Rockets (or Spurs) just to make the Finals where they would meet Boston (or Cleveland).  There is no way the Thunder should have greater championship odds than Cleveland for sure and probably Toronto, Washington, and Milwaukee just given what a gauntlet the west is presumed to be at the top (I think the bottom of the west is pretty weak overall but those 5 teams all could be great teams).
Yeah, there's no question that the western teams have it harder.  But that's because they're considered to be better.  So whether they have to beat the Warriors in the semis or quarters or finals, it boils down to who has the better odds?

I'm with Moranis here.  Now this is a very basic, high level example of how I see it, assuming HOU/SAS are better than anybody out of the East.  Using the ESPN rankings and assigning very unscientific odds of victory to the playoff matchups.

Warriors:
Round 1-POR 99%
Round 2-OKC/MIN 99%
Round 3-HOU/SAS 99%
Round 4-BOS/CLE-99%
Overall odds (99%*99%*99%*99%) = 96.1%


Rockets:
Round 1-LAC 90%
Round 2-SAS 50%
Round 3-GS 1%
Round 4-BOS/CLE 60%
Overall odds: 0.27%

Boston:
Round 1-CHO 90%
Round 2-WAS/MIL 65%
Round 3-CLE 50%
Round 4-GS 1%
Overall odds: 0.29%

This is how Boston (and Cleveland) could have better odds of winning a championship even if HOU/SAS are better.  Of course playing with the %'s can change the outlook, this is just an example so don't focus on the actual %'s, just a general idea of how I see it.

An even simpler way to think about it: suppose Boston was the only team in the East.., and the other 29 teams all had to play each other over and over to get to the finals.

Boston would have a decent chance just because of that, and all the West teams would have a much harder row to hoe.

The BPI odds reflect something like this, it's just that instead of having all the teams, the West just has most of the very good teams.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2017, 01:02:11 PM »

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they'll change their tune after Celtics hang # 18 this year.

Re: ESPN's BPI Has the Celtics #4
« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2017, 01:42:32 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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An even simpler way to think about it: suppose Boston was the only team in the East.., and the other 29 teams all had to play each other over and over to get to the finals.

Boston would have a decent chance just because of that, and all the West teams would have a much harder row to hoe.

The BPI odds reflect something like this, it's just that instead of having all the teams, the West just has most of the very good teams.

Thanks for a new idiom.  Pretty solid.
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