How long are we expecting Hayward and Horford to remain with the Celtics

[saltlover]

I expect Horford to opt out of his current deal after Year 3 and sign a 4+1 deal in Boston for a good deal less than the max.

Not sure about Hayward.  I imagine something similar, although potentially at or near at least the 7-9 max for him.

[tarheelsxxiii]

I expect Horford to opt out of his current deal after Year 3 and sign a 4+1 deal in Boston for a good deal less than the max.

Not sure about Hayward.  I imagine something similar, although potentially at or near at least the 7-9 max for him.

Horford would play to 36-37 years old in that scenario.  I think his game will age very well.  But do you think he'll hold up for that long?

[saltlover]

I expect Horford to opt out of his current deal after Year 3 and sign a 4+1 deal in Boston for a good deal less than the max.

Not sure about Hayward.  I imagine something similar, although potentially at or near at least the 7-9 max for him.

Horford would play to 36-37 years old in that scenario.  I think his game will age very well.  But do you think he'll hold up for that long?

Can't say for sure, obviously.  But he's generally not been a player who's dealt with a lot of nagging injuries over his career.  He's had two issues with his pectoral muscles -- those give me some pause, but he's had three full seasons since the last one, so the best I can do is assume that's in the past at this point.  He's not a guy who seems like he'll be derailed by back/knee/foot issues like some bigs are.  And he's not someone who's looked worn down at the end of a season, and has had many years going multiple rounds into the playoffs.

Father Time will slowly erode his abilities, but I wouldn't be worried about the wheels falling off during his next deal.

[slamtheking]

Where do people see Horford after his contract is over? What do we see Hayward doing after year three when he has a player option? 

I could flip a coin with Horford on a cheaper contract.  Hayward, I have no clue.  Brown and Tatum, if they have become young stars would be in year 5 and 4, respectively, where do they fit?And Hayward will be looking for another big pay raise, so will the Celtics pay him or trade him?

Also, if the team wins a title in three years, how does that impact the scenarios?

I'd love to hear opinions.  All opinions are welcome, but please be respectful

Horford:
I think it depends on the team's success and chemistry the next 3 years.

If the lockerroom chemistry takes a major hit after the roster shake-up, I could see him moving on at the end of his deal regardless of whatever success the team has.

if there's good chemistry and the team is successfully challenging for the title the next 3 years, I think he stays with a less-expensive contract provided he's still productive enough for Danny to offer to resign him.

If the team isn't contending for the next 3 years for whatever reason, I think he moves on to greener pastures to try to get a ring.

Hayward:
I think he'll be here for the long haul.  this contract and the next one.

Kyrie:
for what it's worth, I'm confident Kyrie resigns after this contract is up.

[Phantom255x]

Horford actually strikes me as someone who would be willing to stay on a pay-cut after his contract ends ESPECIALLY if the C's are legitimately competing for banners then (ideally as the Warriors blow up in 2-3 years due to lux tax issues).

[saltlover]

Horford actually strikes me as someone who would be willing to stay on a pay-cut after his contract ends ESPECIALLY if the C's are legitimately competing for banners then (ideally as the Warriors blow up in 2-3 years due to lux tax issues).

The Celtics just traded face-of-the-franchise Isaiah Thomas and their longest-tenured player in Avery Bradley.  No one should give the Celtics a discount, because there is zero guarantee you'll get to stay on the team for the length of your deal.

I think Horford might take a little less per year to get a longer deal, but I don't think he'll cut the Celtics any breaks, nor should he.

[Moranis]

Until Ainge finds a trade he likes

[mmmmm]

I expect Horford to opt out of his current deal after Year 3 and sign a 4+1 deal in Boston for a good deal less than the max.

Not sure about Hayward.  I imagine something similar, although potentially at or near at least the 7-9 max for him.

Horford would play to 36-37 years old in that scenario.  I think his game will age very well.  But do you think he'll hold up for that long?

Can't say for sure, obviously.  But he's generally not been a player who's dealt with a lot of nagging injuries over his career.  He's had two issues with his pectoral muscles -- those give me some pause, but he's had three full seasons since the last one, so the best I can do is assume that's in the past at this point.  He's not a guy who seems like he'll be derailed by back/knee/foot issues like some bigs are.  And he's not someone who's looked worn down at the end of a season, and has had many years going multiple rounds into the playoffs.

Father Time will slowly erode his abilities, but I wouldn't be worried about the wheels falling off during his next deal.

I'm not too worried about the pectoral muscle surgeries.  Pectoral tears are rare in basketball because the activities simply don't put a ton of stress on them like, say, being an OL in the NFL.  Al just happened to have a chronic defect issue that, from my understanding, was addressed by the surgeries. 

Overall, I'm in the "Al's game should age well" camp.   I know that folks who focus on counting stats think that Al's game has declined the last few years, but that's deceptive.  What he's done is shift his game quite a bit.   Positionally, he plays more and more outside the paint on both ends of the court.   This has dropped both his scoring and rebounding numbers, but his increased usage as a playmaker has more than made up for it in assists on one end and his value in switching defense on the other.

Consider that, when you add both points-scored directly plus points created via assist, Al actually had his career best year last year, creating 26.0 total points per game.  He did that by scoring 14 and creating 12 via assist.

If Al was more scoring-centric and less of a passer, scoring 20 and creating 6 via assist, everyone here who complains about his max contract would be ecstatic.   But he wouldn't necessarily have been any more valuable.

He also shot the most 3PA per game of his career and posted his 2nd best 3PT% with a solid 35.5%.  He's basically transformed his game to fit the modern NBA.   

[mmmmm]

Horford actually strikes me as someone who would be willing to stay on a pay-cut after his contract ends ESPECIALLY if the C's are legitimately competing for banners then (ideally as the Warriors blow up in 2-3 years due to lux tax issues).

The Celtics just traded face-of-the-franchise Isaiah Thomas and their longest-tenured player in Avery Bradley.  No one should give the Celtics a discount, because there is zero guarantee you'll get to stay on the team for the length of your deal.

I think Horford might take a little less per year to get a longer deal, but I don't think he'll cut the Celtics any breaks, nor should he.

Yeah, I can only see that happening if it's for more total money.

I.E, if he opts out of the last year (34.2M) in exchange for 3 years at ~60M or something like that.

Something like that would benefit the C's by nocking 14M off their number in that option year and it would give Al security without having to chase down a 2x15M contract after his option year.

But we are a long way from all that and a lot can and likely will change between now and then.

[SHAQATTACK]

50 years

[bopna]

I like Horford's game now. He just gives you the ultimate compliment. No nonsense screens and one of the best if not the best pick n pop guy you can ever find next to GH and KI.

Horford will still be a very good player for the duration of his contract and then hopefully because we are contending stays on a more friendly contract to maybe even finish his carreer here...or atleast up to the tail end of his prime.

[j804]

I see Horford retired.

I can't see him remaining very effective by age 33-34 given how much he;s already declined the past 2-3 seasons. 

Hayward I feel will probably stick around.

How can a guy that hasn't jumped for a rebound in 5 years retire at 34? His knees are probably in better shape than Smart's.

https://vine.co/v/5taveZXU5Bt/embed/simple

Lol you have a point he literally jumped like 2 inches

[Bucketgetter]

Where do people see Horford after his contract is over? What do we see Hayward doing after year three when he has a player option? 

I could flip a coin with Horford on a cheaper contract.  Hayward, I have no clue.  Brown and Tatum, if they have become young stars would be in year 5 and 4, respectively, where do they fit?And Hayward will be looking for another big pay raise, so will the Celtics pay him or trade him?

Also, if the team wins a title in three years, how does that impact the scenarios?

I'd love to hear opinions.  All opinions are welcome, but please be respectful

I see Horford retired.

I can't see him remaining very effective by age 33-34 given how much he;s already declined the past 2-3 seasons. 

Hayward I feel will probably stick around.

You see Horford retired at age 33?

With guys like Udonis Halsem, Pau Gasol, David West, Nick Collison, and Zach Randolph all still playing? Who are all 35-37 years old.

Paul Gasol doesn't belong on that list because he was an elite two-way big and perennial all-star who also happens to also have elite size (7'0" / 250 lbs / 7'5 wingspan) that allows him to remain effective in the league for longer, since that size allows him to shoot right over guys, grab rebounds right over guys and affect shots on defence without having to get much elevation or movement.  Hence why a guy with elite size (like Gasol  or Howard) is more likely to last in the league.  Hence why he put up arguably better numbers last year at 36 then Horford did at 31..lol

Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph also happen to be the only guys on that list currently who aren't on the fringe of "completely useless". 

* Haslem averaged less than 2 pts, 2.5 reb and 10 mins over the past two seasons
* Collison averaged as above last season
* West was comparatively beastly, putting up 4.6 pts and 3 rebounds in his 12.6 mins year

Those guys may not be retired, but all three of them may as well have done so 3 seasons ago, because they aren't doing anything to help anybody on the court right now.

Zach Randolph is the only one on that list who has remained effective, and that has a lot to do with the fact that he has freakish length (allowing him to play bigger than he is) plus the fact that his game based mostly around power rather than finesse.  Unlike Hoford he stills bangs down low, and he still gets after rebounds - he doesn't try to be something he isn't and go chasing people around on the perimeter and popping up four threes a game.

Likewise Randolph didn't see a drop off in production starting at the age of 28 like Horford has.  The last time Horford saw a rise in statistical production was in 2013/14 when he was 27 years old.   Since then it's been a steady decline both statistically and physically - you can clearly see he's not as mobile/athletic as he was 2-3 years ago, and that mobility was a big part of what made him such a special player. 

Last season was:
* The first time in Horford's career that he shot below 50% from the field (I'm not counting the 49.9% in his rookie year)

* The first time in Horford's career that he averaged below 7 rebounds per game

* His lowest scoring average (14.0 PPG) since his second year (2008/08 season at age 22)

 * The equal second lowest eFG% of his career after his rookie year (tied with his 2nd year)

* The second lowest TS% of his career after his rookie year

And he had just turned 30...it's not looking good.

Literally none of those stats matter. It doesn’t matter that Haslam, West, and Collison aren’t producing anymore. It doesn’t matter that you think Gasol and Z Bo are better now than Horford will be at that age. The point is that they’re all still playing, and you think Horford will be retired by age 33-34, when all of those guys are still playing and they’re 4-6 years older than him. You’re timeline of NBA careers is seriously screwed up if you think Horford is retiring at the end of his current contract.

[Bucketgetter]

Where do people see Horford after his contract is over? What do we see Hayward doing after year three when he has a player option? 

I could flip a coin with Horford on a cheaper contract.  Hayward, I have no clue.  Brown and Tatum, if they have become young stars would be in year 5 and 4, respectively, where do they fit?And Hayward will be looking for another big pay raise, so will the Celtics pay him or trade him?

Also, if the team wins a title in three years, how does that impact the scenarios?

I'd love to hear opinions.  All opinions are welcome, but please be respectful

I see Horford retired.

I can't see him remaining very effective by age 33-34 given how much he;s already declined the past 2-3 seasons. 

Hayward I feel will probably stick around.

You see Horford retired at age 33?

With guys like Udonis Halsem, Pau Gasol, David West, Nick Collison, and Zach Randolph all still playing? Who are all 35-37 years old.

Paul Gasol doesn't belong on that list because he was an elite two-way big and perennial all-star who also happens to also have elite size (7'0" / 250 lbs / 7'5 wingspan) that allows him to remain effective in the league for longer, since that size allows him to shoot right over guys, grab rebounds right over guys and affect shots on defence without having to get much elevation or movement.  Hence why a guy with elite size (like Gasol  or Howard) is more likely to last in the league.  Hence why he put up arguably better numbers last year at 36 then Horford did at 31..lol

Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph also happen to be the only guys on that list currently who aren't on the fringe of "completely useless". 

* Haslem averaged less than 2 pts, 2.5 reb and 10 mins over the past two seasons
* Collison averaged as above last season
* West was comparatively beastly, putting up 4.6 pts and 3 rebounds in his 12.6 mins year

Those guys may not be retired, but all three of them may as well have done so 3 seasons ago, because they aren't doing anything to help anybody on the court right now.

Zach Randolph is the only one on that list who has remained effective, and that has a lot to do with the fact that he has freakish length (allowing him to play bigger than he is) plus the fact that his game based mostly around power rather than finesse.  Unlike Hoford he stills bangs down low, and he still gets after rebounds - he doesn't try to be something he isn't and go chasing people around on the perimeter and popping up four threes a game.

Likewise Randolph didn't see a drop off in production starting at the age of 28 like Horford has.  The last time Horford saw a rise in statistical production was in 2013/14 when he was 27 years old.   Since then it's been a steady decline both statistically and physically - you can clearly see he's not as mobile/athletic as he was 2-3 years ago, and that mobility was a big part of what made him such a special player. 

Last season was:
* The first time in Horford's career that he shot below 50% from the field (I'm not counting the 49.9% in his rookie year)

* The first time in Horford's career that he averaged below 7 rebounds per game

* His lowest scoring average (14.0 PPG) since his second year (2008/08 season at age 22)

 * The equal second lowest eFG% of his career after his rookie year (tied with his 2nd year)

* The second lowest TS% of his career after his rookie year

And he had just turned 30...it's not looking good.

Literally none of those stats matter. It doesn’t matter that Haslam, West, and Collison aren’t producing anymore. It doesn’t matter that you think Gasol and Z Bo are better now than Horford will be at that age. The point is that they’re all still playing, and you think Horford will be retired by age 33-34, when all of those guys are still playing and they’re 4-6 years older than him. You’re timeline of NBA careers is seriously screwed up if you think Horford is retiring at the end of his current contract.

[liam]

50 years

At least!