New draft rules working in our favour

[Androslav]

With the new lottery chance distribution rules, out external picks just became more valuable. Precisely, the MEM and the LAL/SAC picks. This could mean a few spots bump up in the longrun.

[smokeablount]

Posted this in the lottery reform thread:

Here's a link to an ESPN article that provides all the percentage chances for every team in the lottery:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20851002/nba-board-governors-votes-pass-legislation-draft-lottery-reform-guidelines-resting-healthy-players

   

New 2019 Lottery Odds (Vs. Previous Odds)
                NO. 1 (%)   TOP-3 (%) TOP-5 (%)   EXPECTED PICK
Team 1   14.0 (25.0)   40 (64)    100 (100)   3.7 (2.6)
Team 2   14.0 (19.9)   40 (56)    80 (100)   3.9 (3.0)
Team 3   14.0 (15.6)   40 (47)    67 (96)           4.1 (3.4)
Team 4   12.5 (11.9)   37 (38)      55 (83)           4.4 (4.0)
Team 5   10.5 (8.   32 (29)    44 (55)           5.0 (4.7)
Team 6   9.0 (6.3)    28 (22)    37 (22)           5.5 (5.5)
Team 7   7.5 (4.3)    23 (15)    32 (15)           6.2 (6.5)
Team 8   6.0 (2.    19 (10)    26 (10)           7.0 (7.6)
Team 9   4.5 (1.7)    15 (6)   20 (6)           8.0 (8.7)
Team 10 3.0 (1.1)   10 (4)   14 (4)           9.2 (9.
Team 11 2.0 (0.   7 (3)   9 (3)          10.3 (10.
Team 12 1.5 (0.7)   5 (3)   7 (3)          11.4 (11.
Team 13 1.0 (0.6)   3 (2)   5 (2)          12.5 (12.
Team 14 0.5 (0.5)   2 (2)   2 (2)          13.7 (13.

I like this for the Kings pick. I can see them finishing between the 6th and 9th worst team, so their odds of hitting #1 are higher but still quite low, however their odds off landing top 3 and top 5 increase by 100% or more on average in the 6-9 range.

And if they finish in the bottom 3, they are less likely to land top 3 and top 5 but still have really good odds, and their chances to hit #1 are heavily reduced.

I think I kind of like it either way.