Author Topic: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT  (Read 1493 times)

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For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« on: September 19, 2017, 09:07:04 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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IT was a great Celtic.  Last year was my first year with season tickets, and every night I was pumped to see how many points IT would score.  The fact that for a long time, he was above 29 ppg and within Larry Bird's 29.9 ppg Celtic record, only added to it.  His best game was the 53 points vs. the Wizards in game 2:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtuCH9iLGmk

He has amazing touch on the move within 10 feet of the rim, uses picks and screens well, and creates space on drives probably about as well as any NBA player.  He shoots well from 3 and elite from the line. 

But if you watch Kyrie's highlights against the defending champ Spurs with Kawhi (a DPOY), Duncan (led NBA in advanced defense metrics in his last NBA season), and Danny Green defending him, the skill level in scoring, shooting off the dribble, and the degree of difficulty and versatility on his scoring drives, he literally exploded off the screen- for 57 points:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXxt8hJbelo

Honestly, watching the IT video, they ran some Ray plays and inside-out passes to get him the 3's he made, he got a lot of Horford screens, he has numerous amazing drives creating space and finishing with ease... but he just doesn't pop off the screen like Kyrie does. 

Then you consider that Kyrie was 22 when he dropped 57 points on two of the best defenders in modern NBA history (yes, Duncan was still great at 37-38) and the way he did it- it's amazing.  He looks closer to Steph Curry in the ways that he scores with the ball than IT.

Last year Kyrie was only 24.  Everyone against Kyrie compares his numbers last year, or what he will do this year, to IT last year.  But this year we have a secondary scorer in Hayward, plus Al, plus improved Jaylen and Tatum, so that doesn't seem relevant. 

Why not compare IT at 24 to Kyrie at 24?  Both played with an alpha scorer and usage guy in Lebron and DMC.  It was Isaiah's best year before his first all star year, so it's not cherry picking.

IT - 20.3/6.3/2.9 .574 ts%, 85% ft 35% 3pt 20.5 PER 4.7% trb% 32.2% ast% 26.3 usg%

KI - 25.5/5.8/3.2 .580 ts% 90% ft 40% 3pt 23.0 PER 5.0% trb% 29.7% ast% 30.8% usg%

IT - Offensive win shares: 6.4 , defensive (with better team D): 1.3 = 7.7 total win shares

KI - Offensive win shares: 7.4 (second banana), defensive: 1.5 = 8.9 total win shares

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thomais02.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/irvinky01.html

I have high expectations for Kyrie this season.  I think he's a major upgrade in talent.  So even though the C's outperformed their expectation last year, I expect this year's team to improve.
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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 09:44:05 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Not sure I love comparing them at age 24.

That said, I will throw some more stats in here.

D-Wade, in the 4 years before Lebrons arrival(age 25-28): 7.1 assists per game, 38.6 assist %
D-Wade in the 4 years with Lebron: 4.7 assists per game, 25.5 assist %
Kyrie Irving in the 3 years with Lebron: 5.3 assists per game, 27.1 assist %
Who knows what Kyrie can do ages 25-28 without Lebron.

Also, with 5.8 assists per game this year, Kyrie had the second highest apg for a secondary facilitator (Steph and Dray each had ~7 a game).

Finally similar to one of the stats you posted:
ITs pre Boston assist %: 27
ITs Boston assist %: 33
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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2017, 11:33:17 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Not sure I love comparing them at age 24.

That said, I will throw some more stats in here.

D-Wade, in the 4 years before Lebrons arrival(age 25-28): 7.1 assists per game, 38.6 assist %
D-Wade in the 4 years with Lebron: 4.7 assists per game, 25.5 assist %
Kyrie Irving in the 3 years with Lebron: 5.3 assists per game, 27.1 assist %
Who knows what Kyrie can do ages 25-28 without Lebron.

Also, with 5.8 assists per game this year, Kyrie had the second highest apg for a secondary facilitator (Steph and Dray each had ~7 a game).

Finally similar to one of the stats you posted:
ITs pre Boston assist %: 27
ITs Boston assist %: 33

Re: comparing them at 24, you're 100% correct that it's far from a perfect comparison. I merely brought it up as a counterpoint comp for those comparing Kyrie last year or for the coming year to IT last year. Both comps are flawed but I've seen tons of people comping the latter, but not for age 24.

TP for the great stats that present Kyrie's 5.8 apg last year as actually quite impressive #'s. Also that based on Wade's assists pre-LBJ and IT's jump as a Celtic, Kyrie could potentially jump up to 7+ apg.

If Kyrie puts up 27-7-4 on 47/40/90 % splits with GH here, I'll view that as topping IT last year.
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2017, 07:25:28 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Yeah, comparing the two at age 24 is imperfect but I don't see it as any more problematic than comparing their numbers from last season, when Kyrie was the second option in an offense designed for Lebron and IT was the first option in an offense designed for him.

The other thing I've been seeing, that bugs me, is posters saying that if Kyrie doesn't match IT's numbers from last year then he'll have been a step down. But the alternative would've been to keep IT, who probably would not have matched his own numbers from last year, injury or not. Did anyone really think that IT was going to average 29-6 on historically good efficiency for the next 5 years? Or that he would be able to recreate that season even one more time? I guess a lot of people have looked stupid underestimating Isaiah Thomas through the years so maybe I'm just one more of them but it feels to me like we saw IT's best season last year and we haven't seen what Kyrie is capable of yet.

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2017, 08:05:14 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.


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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2017, 09:20:06 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
Where did IT rank?

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2017, 09:35:16 AM »

Offline Big333223

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
The averages get skewed because when Lebron was off the floor, Kyrie's usage jumped up to Westbrookian levels (41.8 with James on the bench, a reasonable 26.8 with James on the floor). I had trouble finding Lebron's usage rate with/without Kyrie but when the two were on the floor together, Lebron seemed to be the clear #1 playmaker and Kyrie #2.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2017, 09:55:44 AM by Big333223 »

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2017, 09:36:21 AM »

Offline johnnygreen

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.

I think you're splitting hairs. He said Irving was the second option in an offense designed for Lebron. Yes, Irving did take just over 1 more shot per game than Lebron, but Lebron still led the team in scoring and assists per game. I believe last season may have been the first time Lebron didn't lead a team in shots per game in his career.

The best comparison that I can come up with now, are the Showtime Lakers. Yes Kareem led the team in shots per game, but the offense was built around Magic.

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2017, 09:39:29 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
Where did IT rank?
#8 --> 19.05 per game.  The next Celtic on the list is AB at #41 with 14.34 per game.  huge gap between first and second most shots per game.

KI had 19.89 per game at #6.

just to be thorough on the 'second option' comment, Lebron was #11 at 18.78.  only 1 less per game than Kyrie.  not exactly what I'd consider a large enough disparity to not consider Lebron as the real primary option for Cleveland.

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2017, 10:21:51 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
People say this because even though Kyrie took a lot of shots, LeBron ran the offense. LeBron was essentially their point guard.

My argument for Boston being better for Kyrie is that I expect him to get shots in the flow of the offense, an offense that he runs rather than the your turn my turn offense he ran in Cleveland last year.

I don't like the Kyrie trade, but there is an argument to be made for Kyrie being in a better system and getting more overall responsibility which leads to him improving his numbers from last year.
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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2017, 11:17:57 AM »

Offline Big333223

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
People say this because even though Kyrie took a lot of shots, LeBron ran the offense. LeBron was essentially their point guard.

My argument for Boston being better for Kyrie is that I expect him to get shots in the flow of the offense, an offense that he runs rather than the your turn my turn offense he ran in Cleveland last year.

I don't like the Kyrie trade, but there is an argument to be made for Kyrie being in a better system and getting more overall responsibility which leads to him improving his numbers from last year.
To your point: NBA.com statistics show Irving attempted just slightly more FG's out of isolation than James (Irving 4.4 per game, James 4.2) but Irving also averaged more catch-and-shoot jumpers than James (2.7 for Irving to James' 1.9), indicating Irving played off the ball more.

The traditional stats back it up, too. While James averaged 1.5 fewer FG's per game, he attempted 2.6 more FT's per game, averaged 2.9 more apg, and turned the ball over 1.6 more times per game than Irving. All indicators that the offense revolved around James' decision making.

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2017, 12:55:18 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
To your point: NBA.com statistics show Irving attempted just slightly more FG's out of isolation than James (Irving 4.4 per game, James 4.2) but Irving also averaged more catch-and-shoot jumpers than James (2.7 for Irving to James' 1.9), indicating Irving played off the ball more.

Who doesn't play off the ball with LeBron?

Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2017, 02:56:42 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
People say this because even though Kyrie took a lot of shots, LeBron ran the offense. LeBron was essentially their point guard.

My argument for Boston being better for Kyrie is that I expect him to get shots in the flow of the offense, an offense that he runs rather than the your turn my turn offense he ran in Cleveland last year.

I don't like the Kyrie trade, but there is an argument to be made for Kyrie being in a better system and getting more overall responsibility which leads to him improving his numbers from last year.
To your point: NBA.com statistics show Irving attempted just slightly more FG's out of isolation than James (Irving 4.4 per game, James 4.2) but Irving also averaged more catch-and-shoot jumpers than James (2.7 for Irving to James' 1.9), indicating Irving played off the ball more.

The traditional stats back it up, too. While James averaged 1.5 fewer FG's per game, he attempted 2.6 more FT's per game, averaged 2.9 more apg, and turned the ball over 1.6 more times per game than Irving. All indicators that the offense revolved around James' decision making.

That's different than saying somebody was a secondary option, though.

Ricky Rubio was 6th in the NBA in time of possession. Was he Minnesota's primary option?  Or was that Wiggins, who had the ball 1/3 of the time of Rubio?

IT had the ball about 18 seconds more per game than Kyrie, averaging more passes and fewer shots. Using Kyrie's role (lead scorer and co-facilitator on a great team) to mitigate his inferior stats makes no sense.


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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2017, 04:58:06 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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... when Kyrie was the second option ...

Why do people keep saying this?  It seems to be the conventional wisdom, but it's not accurate.

Kyrie led the Cavs in shots and usage. He wasn't by any means the second option.

He was 6th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game.
People say this because even though Kyrie took a lot of shots, LeBron ran the offense. LeBron was essentially their point guard.

My argument for Boston being better for Kyrie is that I expect him to get shots in the flow of the offense, an offense that he runs rather than the your turn my turn offense he ran in Cleveland last year.

I don't like the Kyrie trade, but there is an argument to be made for Kyrie being in a better system and getting more overall responsibility which leads to him improving his numbers from last year.
To your point: NBA.com statistics show Irving attempted just slightly more FG's out of isolation than James (Irving 4.4 per game, James 4.2) but Irving also averaged more catch-and-shoot jumpers than James (2.7 for Irving to James' 1.9), indicating Irving played off the ball more.

The traditional stats back it up, too. While James averaged 1.5 fewer FG's per game, he attempted 2.6 more FT's per game, averaged 2.9 more apg, and turned the ball over 1.6 more times per game than Irving. All indicators that the offense revolved around James' decision making.

That's different than saying somebody was a secondary option, though.

Ricky Rubio was 6th in the NBA in time of possession. Was he Minnesota's primary option?  Or was that Wiggins, who had the ball 1/3 of the time of Rubio?

IT had the ball about 18 seconds more per game than Kyrie, averaging more passes and fewer shots. Using Kyrie's role (lead scorer and co-facilitator on a great team) to mitigate his inferior stats makes no sense.
Well you asked why they said Kyrie was the second option and I gave you the reason. They might have been confusing primary option with primary ball handler, but none the less that is the reasoning behind it.

So you don't believe that Kyrie will put up better numbers in Boston than he did in Cleveland? Personally, I hate watching isolation offense so the argument that Boston's offense will be a better fit for Kyrie than Cleveland is appealing to me. This is assuming Kyrie alters his shot selection to fit Brad's offense instead of the inverse.
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Re: For those bullish on Kyrie vs. IT
« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2017, 06:54:00 PM »

Offline DooVoo

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There is no point in debating this. IT is hurt, is going to miss most of the year if all, and has a very serious injury. Kyrie is younger and healthy. That is all you need to know.

We would be in huge trouble if we had to rely on IT this year and going forward.