Poll

Who has the better Rotation

2016 Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Horford, Smart, Olynyk, Amir, Brown
4 (7%)
2017 Irving, Hayward, Horford, Smart, Morris, Brown, Tatum, Rozier
53 (93%)

Total Members Voted: 57

Author Topic: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics  (Read 1360 times)

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Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« on: September 19, 2017, 01:34:25 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 The list is in order for last year's team Mpg, vs the projected 17 team

Thomas/Irving
Bradley/Hayward
Crowder/Morris
Horford/Horford
Smart/Smart
Olynyk/Tatum
Amir/Brown
Brown/Rozier

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2017, 11:10:56 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Ten to 1. More votes please.

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2017, 11:34:06 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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 Ten to 1. More votes please.

I mean, I voted for '17 cuz I'm confident that the top 4-5 guys aren't worse than last year, but it's hard to conclusively answer because of the back end of this year's 8 man rotation.

1) Kyrie's stats won't be better than IT's last year, but I think Kyrie is 'better' than IT. 

2) I loved AB but Hayward's near-elite scoring and playmaking makes a much bigger impact than AB's elite D and solid scoring, so he's better. 

3) Horford this year vs. last year should be a wash, maybe he's a bit better after a year in the system, not getting concussed / slumping so hard mid-season I hope, and seeing the impact of him stepping up his game / assertion in the playoffs.  But he could be a tad worse too.

4) I think we all hope Smart this year is better than Smart last year.  It's easy to see him being about the same but barring injury I don't really see him being worse.  His D shouldn't drop off and he looks really fit, and he has nowhere to go but up on offense.

5) I actually think Morris this year could be better than Crowder last year.  I think he could surprise us.  He played great when Detroit played Cleveland in the playoffs a few years ago, he's a pretty talented shooter with a rugged game, and he did put up 14 ppg last year.

Beyond these top 5 guys, it's up in the air.  I think if things break right, Tatum could end up starting at PF by the end of the year or being our 6th man if Smart starts at SG, but I don't think it's likely.  If that happens, that's a major feather in the cap of this year's rotation. 

Do Brown and/or Rozier make leaps?  Cuz either/both would be a huge deal. 

Also, if this list is correct and Baynes is the 9th guy in our rotation, I think he can be more valuable than at least one guy in the 8 man rotation last year, prolly Amir.
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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2017, 11:38:10 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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I think Baynes will end up playing more minutes than Rozier.  With our lack of bigs we basically need to have either Horford or Baynes on the floor at all times.  Rozier, on the other hand, will have his minutes impacted a lot if Brown starts at the 2 (since Irving and Smart are virtual locks for 30+ mpg each, leaving only ~35 mpg between Brown and Rozier).
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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2017, 11:41:02 AM »

Offline Big333223

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I think the talent on this upcoming team is definitely higher. How well they all play together... I'm optimistic but there's no way to know yet.
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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2017, 11:49:41 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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'17. 

I'm predicating that on the belief that Brown will make a 2nd year leap and you'll see discernable improvements from Smart & Rozier.  I also think Tatum is ready to go right off the bat, certainly offensively.


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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2017, 12:07:52 PM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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I think Baynes will end up playing more minutes than Rozier.  With our lack of bigs we basically need to have either Horford or Baynes on the floor at all times.  Rozier, on the other hand, will have his minutes impacted a lot if Brown starts at the 2 (since Irving and Smart are virtual locks for 30+ mpg each, leaving only ~35 mpg between Brown and Rozier).




 That's very doubtful Jim. Baynes career high is 16 mpg and that was 3 years ago when he was 27.

 Rozier avg 17 mpg last year, we got rid of Avery Bradley, and this is Scary Terry's third year.

 It's basically a lock for Rozier to get 20 mpg or more this year.

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2017, 12:14:03 PM »

Offline Rosco917

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The 2016 team was a flawed team when talking about the play-offs. They were an easier team to prepare for. IT would do the bulk of the scoring, they were weak on the boards, and a smallish team that wasn't a very physical team.

Hopefully the 17 team, has addressed some of those concerns, then again they haven't played a single game yet. The scoring should be more diversified, we still have a rebounding issue, team size is somewhat normal, and now with the addition of Baynes, Morris should be a team that doesn't get bullied.

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2017, 02:14:03 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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I think Baynes will end up playing more minutes than Rozier.  With our lack of bigs we basically need to have either Horford or Baynes on the floor at all times.  Rozier, on the other hand, will have his minutes impacted a lot if Brown starts at the 2 (since Irving and Smart are virtual locks for 30+ mpg each, leaving only ~35 mpg between Brown and Rozier).




 That's very doubtful Jim. Baynes career high is 16 mpg and that was 3 years ago when he was 27.

 Rozier avg 17 mpg last year, we got rid of Avery Bradley, and this is Scary Terry's third year.

 It's basically a lock for Rozier to get 20 mpg or more this year.

I figure Horford at 32 mpg (same as last year), so Baynes with ~16mpg.  That's right in line with his past 3 years (16.0, 15.2, and 15.5 mpg respectively).

Rozier, though, is going to be casualty of the huge number of wings.  The overall minutes will probably break down something like this:

PG: Irving 32/Smart 10/Rozier 6
SG: Brown 20/Smart 20/Rozier 8
SF: Hayward 25/Tatum 15/Brown 4/Semi or Nader 4
PF: Morris 28/Hayward 7/Tatum 5/Yabu, Theis, Semi, or Nader splitting 8
C: Horford 32/Baynes 16

Rotation players:
Irving 32
Hayward 32
Horford 32
Smart 30
Morris 28
Brown 24
Tatum 20
Baynes 16
Rozier 14
Other rookies 12 (some or all could also go to a vet min)

There's definitely room for Terry to get more minutes (if Brown plays more SF), but it's also possible that he plays less because Hayward plays some SG. I think Brown and Tatum are much better prospects and get more minutes than him,  which will cut down on the time he could get.  You may be right, but I don't think Terry has the talent to earn 20 mpg on this team, especially with how ball-dominant he is.
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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #9 on: September 19, 2017, 07:34:57 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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This is tougher to answer if you go by who you trust. Without a doubt the new top two guys are better but 4 and down it remains to be seen.

1. Irving > IT
2. Hayward > AB
3. Horford = Horford
4. Smart = Crowder?
5. Morrison = Smart?
6. Brown = KO?
7. Baynes = AJ?
8. Theis < Jerekbo

9. Rozier = Green?
10. Tatum > Brown?

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 07:45:14 PM »

Offline mctyson

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That Amir Johnson was in the top 8 is all you need to know.

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2017, 08:13:57 PM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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Celtics gain about 14/15 inches in collective height across 3 core players [Irving/IT, Morris/Crowder, Hayward/Bradley].

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Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 09:47:47 PM »

Offline Hank Finkel

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Here is how I compare the line ups form last year to this year
Irving > IT
Brown < Bradley
Hayward > Crowder
Baynes = Amir
Horford= Horford
Smart = Smart
Morris vs KO.  Not sure here maybe slight edge to Morris
Rozier = Rozier
Tatum > JJ. Eventually but there will be growing pains

Hopefully Smart improves as he matures along with Rozier.  Horford will be about the same or slightly trending down.   The only real negative is Bradley over Brown, and I feel Brown will be a solid D guy with the ability to score 10-12 per game. There are also a glut of young big wings that could help. Yabu, Nader, Semi, Theis.   I still feel this new team is missing a big rebounding rim guy to help Horford.

Re: Poll: Better 8 man Rotation 16 Celtics or 17 Celtics
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 10:46:56 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Thomas vs Irving:
Winner = Irving (2017)

Bradley vs Smart:
Winner = Bradley (2016)

Crowder vs Hayward:
Winner = Hayward (2017)

Amir vs Morris:
Winner = Morris (2017)

16' Horford vs 17' Horford:
Winner 16' Horford - he ain't getting any younger (2016)

Smart vs Rozer:
Winner = Smart - though that could change (2016)

16' Brown vs 17' Brown:
Winner = 17' Brown - he can only get better (2017)

Olynyk vs Tatum:
Winner = Tioo tough to call, I'm gong to say tie. 

End score
3 wins for 2016
4 wins for 2017
1 tie

2017 wins by a whisker

Sadly these are all 1-on-1 matchups and doesn't doesn't factor in things like chemistry (which likely suffers), overall team defence (which likely suffers) or overall rebounding (which likely suffers).

All that taken in to account, honestly, it could go either way - too many factors that are hard to predict for this year.