Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 4438 times)

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #105 on: September 21, 2017, 09:46:27 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #106 on: September 21, 2017, 09:55:51 AM »

Online Moranis

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.
6 touches a game is a pretty decent disparity.  Irving had a lot of wide open fast break three pointers.  Running was a big part of Cleveland's offense.

I agree neither is very likely to duplicate Thomas' season from last year, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if Irving came close. 
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #107 on: September 21, 2017, 10:06:06 AM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.

My take on what Danny said about the trading for Kyrie.

And, that was that there were many, many factors that went into making this trade. I'm sure several scoring, rebounding, passing, assists, defensive and rebounding stats, etc. were all part of their decision making process.

Obviously, Isaiah's injury, age and impending contract also played a part. To narrow down the comparison between these players is a great idea and necessary. But, in the end, it was the sum of all the factors that convinced Danny and his staff to pull the trigger.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #108 on: September 21, 2017, 12:16:11 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.
6 touches a game is a pretty decent disparity.  Irving had a lot of wide open fast break three pointers.  Running was a big part of Cleveland's offense.

I agree neither is very likely to duplicate Thomas' season from last year, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if Irving came close.

84.7 vs 79.0 is 5.7 additional touches per game ... but given that Thomas also passed off 3.5 times more per game, that nets out to only 2.2 non-passing touches per game difference. 

Cleveland (15th) and Boston (17th) were both ranked middle-of-the-road in fast break points per game.  CLE scored 12.9 points via fast-break and BOS scored 12.4.    Not really a big difference there.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #109 on: September 21, 2017, 12:54:18 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
And, that was that there were many, many factors that went into making this trade. I'm sure several scoring, rebounding, passing, assists, defensive and rebounding stats, etc. were all part of their decision making process.

Obviously, Isaiah's injury, age and impending contract also played a part. To narrow down the comparison between these players is a great idea and necessary. But, in the end, it was the sum of all the factors that convinced Danny and his staff to pull the trigger.

I would like to add timeline which Ainge said.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #110 on: September 21, 2017, 01:54:32 PM »

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To many variables to draw any real solid conclusions from IT and Kyries seasons last year.

Completely different coach and system.

Completely different team mates.

Kyrie was the shooting guard, IT was a point guard.

Completely different regular season goals.

Compare stats and advanced stats all day but the only thing that really matters is what would 30 NBA GMs do, Sign 27 year old KI to max or a 29 IT to max.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #111 on: September 21, 2017, 05:28:45 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Obviously, Isaiah's injury, age and impending contract also played a part. To narrow down the comparison between these players is a great idea and necessary. But, in the end, it was the sum of all the factors that convinced Danny and his staff to pull the trigger.

These were the reasons.  A 25 year-old healthy IT who had 2 years left and did what he did last year does not get traded for a similar player.

I think one thing those who are defending IT - because of his season last year - still have not answered for me is whether IT was the type of player who would make the rest of his teammates better.  I know he made last year's version of the team better, vs without him, but does he make players like Hayward, Horford, et al better?

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #112 on: September 21, 2017, 05:45:50 PM »

Offline inverselock

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.

Thomas had more efficient plays called for him.   Big difference having a real coach and system.




Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #113 on: September 21, 2017, 07:20:00 PM »

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.

Thomas had more efficient plays called for him.   Big difference having a real coach and system.



Kyrie was in the 95th percentile last season scoring on iso plays, averaging 1.12 points per shot. For all his coaching faults, Lue allowing Kyrie to run isolation was to the Cavs' benefit.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #114 on: September 21, 2017, 07:55:15 PM »

Offline inverselock

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There are easier and more efficient plays than running iso.   Spot ups, off screens, etc.....


Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #115 on: September 21, 2017, 08:41:06 PM »

Offline Chris22

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Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, and Horford.
Very optimistic.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #116 on: September 21, 2017, 09:00:48 PM »

Offline Alleyoopster

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Irving, Brown, Hayward, Tatum, and Horford.
Very optimistic.

Are you sure you're on the right blog?   ;D

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #117 on: September 21, 2017, 09:06:30 PM »

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There are easier and more efficient plays than running iso.   Spot ups, off screens, etc.....

Exactly, even for a great ISO player. Hard to believe they once had Blatt as coach, and thought Lue is an upgrade. LBJ, coach killer?

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #118 on: September 21, 2017, 09:14:54 PM »

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #119 on: September 26, 2017, 10:51:18 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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]Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's.

Well, while IT's USG was high (34%) Irving's wasn't all that low either, at 30.8%.   Irving actually took slightly more FGA per game (19.7 vs 19.4) than Thomas.  And they took the identical FGA/100 possessions.   Irving was the highest USG player in CLE and took the most FGA in CLE.   It's not like he was really a distant second option.

Thomas touched (84.7) and passed (55.7)  the ball only slightly more per game than Irving (79.0 & 52.2) did.  People make a lot of how much the Cavs used Lebron to handle & facilitate their offense, but the Celtics similarly used Al Horford a lot in theirs.

Also, as for quality of shots, it's important to note that 23.8% of Kyrie's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a nice 41.2% clip) while only 13% of Isaiah's threes occurred with no defender within 6 feet (he hit them at a 52.3% clip!).  In other words, a much bigger share of KI's shots were wide-open.

Thomas scored more points than Kyrie because he was more efficient at scoring.   Despite getting far more attention from defenders.  It's that simple.

Doubtful we'll see a similar season from Isaiah _or_ Kyrie anytime soon, though.

Thomas had more efficient plays called for him.   Big difference having a real coach and system.



If he did, that particular graphic doesn't really demonstrate it.   You need to look at frequency and point-per-play efficiency for each type.

For example, both Thomas and Irving both ran Pick & Roll more than any other play type and at about the same percentage of their respective play profiles (about 34% for both).  The differences in their play type usage were in ISO (which Kyrie ran more of) and spot ups and dribble-hand-offs (which IT ran more of).   But those differences aren't really indicative of 'more efficient plays' for Isaiah.

Kyrie was very efficient at ISO plays, at 1.12 points per play (95th percentile).   Isaiah actually was identically efficient at ISO, but ran less of it.  Instead he ran a little bit more Spot-up, which was a more efficient play type (1.22 per play for IT) and a little bit more hand-off, which was less efficient (1.06 points per play for IT).   So when you look at the differences in their play-types, overall, there is no real advantage there for IT.  And these play types amount to a smaller share of the total for each player.

It's when you look back at the play type that they both ran the most of, the bread and butter pick & roll handler play type, that's where the difference in their results came from.  Because while they both ran it the same percentage of their play type profile, Thomas was far more efficient at it, generating 1.04 points per play versus 0.95 points per play for KI.

In other words, it it the difference in efficiency running the same play type that added up to the bulk of the difference in what Thomas did last year and what Kyrie did last year.
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