Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 3707 times)

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #90 on: September 20, 2017, 08:44:23 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.
Agreed. Those were great historic numbers, great for IT, but one season on a particular team with particular teammates does not prove that is who IT is.  Makes sense to me, Roy.   ;)

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #91 on: September 20, 2017, 09:01:52 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.

Sure. You need to add talent to make the team better.  In terms of shots, you realize that IT took less than Kyrie, right?

However, you obviously can put up those numbers while being on a great team. Steph Curry and Durant do.  But, reduce the points per game, if you think IT's numbers are based upon more chances (which is silly unless you're saying the same thing about Kyrie).  IT averaged 28.9 ppg. Do you know how many players in NBA history have averaged even 23 points, 5 assists, and IT's efficiency levels?

Five: Steph, Durant, Wilt, Lebron and IT.

Our level of PG play will go down next season, unless Kyrie has a historically great season.



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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #92 on: September 20, 2017, 09:08:34 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.

Sure. You need to add talent to make the team better.  In terms of shots, you realize that IT took less than Kyrie, right?

However, you obviously can put up those numbers while being on a great team. Steph Curry and Durant do.  But, reduce the points per game, if you think IT's numbers are based upon more chances (which is silly unless you're saying the same thing about Kyrie).  IT averaged 28.9 ppg. Do you know how many players in NBA history have averaged even 23 points, 5 assists, and IT's efficiency levels?

Five: Steph, Durant, Wilt, Lebron and IT.

Our level of PG play will go down next season, unless Kyrie has a historically great season.

Roy, I feel that you have made this point. A couple times. I'm not sure anyone disagrees. IT was straight fire last year. It is highly improbable that he has a similar year. It is also highly improbable that Kyrie has a year like IT did in 2016-17.

I think Danny made the trade to consider the future, not the past.

Who do you believe will score more points next year (in aggregate, not on average): IT w/ a hip injury or Kyrie (who also seems to gets nicked up during the reg. season)?

I think that Kyrie will score more points than IT next year.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #93 on: September 20, 2017, 09:25:49 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.

Sure. You need to add talent to make the team better.  In terms of shots, you realize that IT took less than Kyrie, right?

However, you obviously can put up those numbers while being on a great team. Steph Curry and Durant do.  But, reduce the points per game, if you think IT's numbers are based upon more chances (which is silly unless you're saying the same thing about Kyrie).  IT averaged 28.9 ppg. Do you know how many players in NBA history have averaged even 23 points, 5 assists, and IT's efficiency levels?

Five: Steph, Durant, Wilt, Lebron and IT.

Our level of PG play will go down next season, unless Kyrie has a historically great season.

Roy, I feel that you have made this point. A couple times. I'm not sure anyone disagrees. IT was straight fire last year. It is highly improbable that he has a similar year. It is also highly improbable that Kyrie has a year like IT did in 2016-17.

I think Danny made the trade to consider the future, not the past.

Who do you believe will score more points next year (in aggregate, not on average): IT w/ a hip injury or Kyrie (who also seems to gets nicked up during the reg. season)?

I think that Kyrie will score more points than IT next year.

It seems like people do disagree, or are suggesting that somehow having the ball a lot (but taking fewer shots than Kyrie) played a role in his historically efficient season.

Since IT will miss at least a month of the season, something will have to go seriously wrong for him to score more aggregate points than Kyrie.  I'm not sure what points totals really tell us, though. Carmelo scored more total points than Durant last year. Does that matter?


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #94 on: September 20, 2017, 09:48:10 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.

Sure. You need to add talent to make the team better.  In terms of shots, you realize that IT took less than Kyrie, right?

However, you obviously can put up those numbers while being on a great team. Steph Curry and Durant do.  But, reduce the points per game, if you think IT's numbers are based upon more chances (which is silly unless you're saying the same thing about Kyrie).  IT averaged 28.9 ppg. Do you know how many players in NBA history have averaged even 23 points, 5 assists, and IT's efficiency levels?

Five: Steph, Durant, Wilt, Lebron and IT.

Our level of PG play will go down next season, unless Kyrie has a historically great season.

Roy, I feel that you have made this point. A couple times. I'm not sure anyone disagrees. IT was straight fire last year. It is highly improbable that he has a similar year. It is also highly improbable that Kyrie has a year like IT did in 2016-17.

I think Danny made the trade to consider the future, not the past.

Who do you believe will score more points next year (in aggregate, not on average): IT w/ a hip injury or Kyrie (who also seems to gets nicked up during the reg. season)?

I think that Kyrie will score more points than IT next year.

It seems like people do disagree, or are suggesting that somehow having the ball a lot (but taking fewer shots than Kyrie) played a role in his historically efficient season.

Since IT will miss at least a month of the season, something will have to go seriously wrong for him to score more aggregate points than Kyrie.  I'm not sure what points totals really tell us, though. Carmelo scored more total points than Durant last year. Does that matter?

IT and Kyrie are primarily scorers (at this point in their careers). They score better than they do anything else. The amount of points scored might be the most relevant stat for these two basketball players.

You are cherry picking here to make a point. Your point presents a unique position: comparing a decent player on a bad team to a great player on a great team. This scoring analysis isn't that relevant to the Celtics and the Cavs, which presumably will both be good teams.

In general, scoring matters. It's a league based on offensive production. GS won rings while averaging 116 ppg last year, first in the league. Here are the top 20 scorers from last year (total, not ppg):

Westbrook
Harden
IT
AD
KAT
Lillard
Derozan
Curry
Lebron
Cousins
Wiggins
Leonard
CJ McCollum
Greek Freak
Kemba
Jimmy Butler
Irving
Wall
Beal
PG13

All are considered to be above average players. Many are considered to be among the best. The Celtics would take most of these players on their team. I think Durant is the obvious exception (which you brought up) after missing 20 games.

The top 3 players in scoring last year were in the top 5 of MVP voting.

With IT4 hurt and in CLE, the Celtics biggest need is an influx of scoring. Fortunately, Irving will be playing for them next year.

My point is that Kyrie will score more points than IT next year, which will hopefully help them win a couple more games.

Also, projecting that IT will miss a month is conjecture. I don't think anyone really knows how many games he will play. The same can be said about Kyrie, though I think he's more of a sure thing to play more games next year.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 09:58:40 AM by green_bballers13 »

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #95 on: September 20, 2017, 10:06:47 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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My point is that Kyrie will score more points for the Celtics next year, which will hopefully help them win a couple more games, compared to IT sitting on the bench with an injury.

Sure. Has anyone argued to the contrary? If IT had stayed here, nick could have started a thread arguing that the Celts would take a step backward in part due to IT's injury.

But instead, you're going off topic again. IT's health has nothing to do with whether the 2017 Celts take a step back from 2016.

Lots of people are arguing that Kyrie is an upgrade. '17 IT vs. '17 Kyrie, there's an argument (for another thread). But '16 IT vs. '17 Kyrie? That's a different argument entirely, one that IT wins.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #96 on: September 20, 2017, 10:21:16 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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My point is that Kyrie will score more points for the Celtics next year, which will hopefully help them win a couple more games, compared to IT sitting on the bench with an injury.

Sure. Has anyone argued to the contrary? If IT had stayed here, nick could have started a thread arguing that the Celts would take a step backward in part due to IT's injury.

But instead, you're going off topic again. IT's health has nothing to do with whether the 2017 Celts take a step back from 2016.

Lots of people are arguing that Kyrie is an upgrade. '17 IT vs. '17 Kyrie, there's an argument (for another thread). But '16 IT vs. '17 Kyrie? That's a different argument entirely, one that IT wins.

I don't think this is true. Lots of people are saying that Kyrie will finish 3rd in MVP voting? Lots of people are arguing that he will score 29 ppg? I haven't read lots of people stating this.

Your argument in a vacuum makes sense and is hard to crack. Once we look to the future (adding context and relevance), this argument doesn't matter too much.

But I agree, Nick wanted to talk about the past and this year, not the future (when the Celtics have a chance to win rings). I started another thread to talk about the Celtics future and few were interested. This surprises me, as the Celtics are more interesting looking forward than they are looking back, in my opinion.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #97 on: September 20, 2017, 10:35:49 AM »

Offline incoherent

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'17 IT, even if health, would never be able to replicate '16 IT's season due to the simple fact that '17 IT would have to share the ball with hayward who wlll average 20+ ppg.

Celtics take a step back? I highly highly doubt it man.  Forgetting about Hayward?

Not to mention this team is definitely a better playoff team regardless of regular season outcome.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #98 on: September 20, 2017, 10:43:59 AM »

Offline Moranis

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My point is that Kyrie will score more points for the Celtics next year, which will hopefully help them win a couple more games, compared to IT sitting on the bench with an injury.

Sure. Has anyone argued to the contrary? If IT had stayed here, nick could have started a thread arguing that the Celts would take a step backward in part due to IT's injury.

But instead, you're going off topic again. IT's health has nothing to do with whether the 2017 Celts take a step back from 2016.

Lots of people are arguing that Kyrie is an upgrade. '17 IT vs. '17 Kyrie, there's an argument (for another thread). But '16 IT vs. '17 Kyrie? That's a different argument entirely, one that IT wins.
What is a step back exactly?  Would losing the ECF in 5 again, but only winning 50 games be a step back?  What if the ECF loss is in 7 games this time instead of 5, but the team only wins 47 games in the regular season?  What if the team wins 59 games, but by unfortunate circumstances faces Cleveland in the 2nd round and loses a tough series to the Cavs, is that a step back?

2017 Boston has more top end talent than 2016 Boston.  That makes 2017 Boston closer to winning a title than 2016 Boston.  That is all that really matters in this sort of analysis.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #99 on: September 20, 2017, 10:51:58 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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My point is that Kyrie will score more points for the Celtics next year, which will hopefully help them win a couple more games, compared to IT sitting on the bench with an injury.

Sure. Has anyone argued to the contrary? If IT had stayed here, nick could have started a thread arguing that the Celts would take a step backward in part due to IT's injury.

But instead, you're going off topic again. IT's health has nothing to do with whether the 2017 Celts take a step back from 2016.

Lots of people are arguing that Kyrie is an upgrade. '17 IT vs. '17 Kyrie, there's an argument (for another thread). But '16 IT vs. '17 Kyrie? That's a different argument entirely, one that IT wins.
What is a step back exactly?  Would losing the ECF in 5 again, but only winning 50 games be a step back?  What if the ECF loss is in 7 games this time instead of 5, but the team only wins 47 games in the regular season?  What if the team wins 59 games, but by unfortunate circumstances faces Cleveland in the 2nd round and loses a tough series to the Cavs, is that a step back?

2017 Boston has more top end talent than 2016 Boston.  That makes 2017 Boston closer to winning a title than 2016 Boston.  That is all that really matters in this sort of analysis.

I agree.

Others might say they are lacking the same depth.

Others will say that there's no way that Kyrie matches IT's performance last year, while ignoring the other improvements made on the team like Gordon Hayward, Morris, and Tatum.

Others will claim that Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, and Kelly Olynyk are franchise type players that cannot be replaced.

I don't agree with these pessimistic views.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #100 on: September 20, 2017, 10:59:51 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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2017 Boston has more top end talent than 2016 Boston.  That makes 2017 Boston closer to winning a title than 2016 Boston.  That is all that really matters in this sort of analysis.

It's a bit more nuanced than that. At the top end, we've added one star. We've subtracted one star and replaced him with a slightly lesser star. We've also subtracted two very good role-playing starters.

For all the reasons nick stated, it's not as simple as saying "we had one star, now we have two, so we're obviously better." Things like depth, chemistry, fit, spacing, defense, etc. matter, particularly in setting expectations for next year.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #101 on: September 20, 2017, 11:08:42 AM »

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2017 Boston has more top end talent than 2016 Boston.  That makes 2017 Boston closer to winning a title than 2016 Boston.  That is all that really matters in this sort of analysis.

It's a bit more nuanced than that. At the top end, we've added one star. We've subtracted one star and replaced him with a slightly lesser star. We've also subtracted two very good role-playing starters.

For all the reasons nick stated, it's not as simple as saying "we had one star, now we have two, so we're obviously better." Things like depth, chemistry, fit, spacing, defense, etc. matter, particularly in setting expectations for next year.

Nah, Jae was becoming overrated. His defense wasn't as good as his reputation, esp in the playoffs. I think Bradley is a good role player.

Also, I don't think one year in isolation is enough to make value judgements re: the "lesser star" comment. I think you'd be hard pressed to find support that Kyrie is not as much of a star as IT. If anything, one could make the point that Kyrie will be better this year as he finally is sitting in the drivers seat.

Re: depth, they don't have the same. Luckily, Danny isn't done making moves. I imagine there will be some depth to add at the trade deadline.

Re: talent, they have more. Brown and Tatum are more talented than Crowder and Kelly/Amir. Bradley isn't as good as Marcus, but I actually prefer Smart's defense going forward (he's bigger, younger, and potentially meaner).

Re: coaching, It should be the same.

Re: chemistry, this is the one that will take some time to figure out. I am projecting 1.5-3 years before this team gels into a championship contender. Unfortunately, last year's team was never a contender.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 11:14:50 AM by green_bballers13 »

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #102 on: September 21, 2017, 05:04:35 AM »

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'17 IT, even if health, would never be able to replicate '16 IT's season due to the simple fact that '17 IT would have to share the ball with hayward who wlll average 20+ ppg.

Celtics take a step back? I highly highly doubt it man.  Forgetting about Hayward?

Not to mention this team is definitely a better playoff team regardless of regular season outcome.

I agree with this.

Kyrie in playoff last year average 25.9p|5.3a|2.8r|47%|37%|21.3PER|57%TS
IT in playoff last year average     23.3p|6.7a|3.3r|43%|33%|18.1PER|56%TS

Kyrie has also put better stats in the 2016 playoff, so it's reasonable to be optimistic.



Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #103 on: September 21, 2017, 07:15:37 AM »

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'17 IT, even if health, would never be able to replicate '16 IT's season due to the simple fact that '17 IT would have to share the ball with hayward who wlll average 20+ ppg.

Celtics take a step back? I highly highly doubt it man.  Forgetting about Hayward?

Not to mention this team is definitely a better playoff team regardless of regular season outcome.

I agree with this.

Kyrie in playoff last year average 25.9p|5.3a|2.8r|47%|37%|21.3PER|57%TS
IT in playoff last year average     23.3p|6.7a|3.3r|43%|33%|18.1PER|56%TS

Kyrie has also put better stats in the 2016 playoff, so it's reasonable to be optimistic.

Those logic are off guys.
- IT with Hayward would have similar if not better stats, because they won't double or triple him. (Do Lillard and McCollum have drop stats because they have to share the ball? don't think so.)
- Irving has better stats because the opposite team couldn't double or triple on him.
Everybody so down on IT, they don't realize what he has done almost all by himself.
He put up historical celtics stats and beat records, all without having another guy to rely on the team to score.
Please compare what is comparable.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #104 on: September 21, 2017, 08:14:41 AM »

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Those logic are off guys.
- IT with Hayward would have similar if not better stats, because they won't double or triple him. (Do Lillard and McCollum have drop stats because they have to share the ball? don't think so.)
Yes, Lillard and McCollum have lesser scoring stats because they play with each other.  For example, Lillard last year missed 5 consecutive games in the middle of the season. In those 5 games, McCollum scored 29, 20, 29, 43, and 35.  which is an average of 31.2.  Including those games McCollum averaged 23 on the season.  I get that is a small sample size, but similar levels of production jumps from McCollum also occurred in the prior season i.e. Lillard missed 7 straight games the prior year, McCollum missed the first and the first two after that was a bit off, but he still averaged 26 in those 6 games.  That year he averaged 20.8. 

You historically see this when great offensive players play together.  Look at the drop in stats from the Boston Big 3 or the Miami Big 3.  Curry went from 30.1 to 25.3 with the addition of Durant.  When Durant left, Westbrook went from 23.5 to 31.6.  Even Durant dropped from 28.2 to 25.1 by leaving 1 great offensive player (Russ) to joining 2 (Curry, Klay). 

What does tend to happen is players have greater efficiency when they don't shoulder as much of the load, but they take less shots because they share that load more. 

- Irving has better stats because the opposite team couldn't double or triple on him.
Everybody so down on IT, they don't realize what he has done almost all by himself.
He put up historical celtics stats and beat records, all without having another guy to rely on the team to score.
Please compare what is comparable.
Thomas had the ball in his hand whenever he wanted the ball.  That allowed him to control the offense, take the shots he wanted, pass when he wanted, etc.  There is a reason Thomas' USG was significantly higher than Irving's. 
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