Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 4442 times)

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #75 on: September 19, 2017, 07:55:19 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I know people are arguing that we are more top heavy in talent than last year's team so we will be better but I am still concerned about the possible bench.(I know either Brown or Smart will start but will address my concerns about both as bench players).

Smart: he is an important role player but if his shooting doesn't improve, the bench will be pretty offensively challenged. The bench NEEDS a veteran scoring pressence in case Tatum can't be consistently very good on the offensive side. I have no faith that Smart can fix that shot.

Brown: he has only one year of experience and if he goes into a sophomore slump and doesn't take a big step forward, it really hurts this team. I feel he won't stagnate as he seemingly got better week by week last year. But...he is still just a 2nd year player and anything is possible. After his first game in Summer League I wasn't impressed with his performance against crap competition.

Rozier: lets face it, last year was his rookie year because he only played about 300 minutes his real rookie year and was just lost. My concerns for him is similar to those of Brown...he needs to continue to grow. But if Smart starts he has to show he can lead the 2nd team and honestly, I don't think he can. He over dribbles, pounds the ball a lot, then deep in the clock he tries to go iso. That happened a ton. Ball movement when he was the PG was awful. He may be a 2 guard in a PG body. I am not his biggest fan. I have little faith in Rozier.

Baynes: he is what he is, a defensive minded, rebounding, horrible on offense big role player. He probably gets 20 MPG and will bring energy when on the court. The continuing theme is he is just another huge problem the bench may have on offense.

Tatum: love this kid. Think he could be Paul Pierce special. But he is a rookie kid that weighs only 205 that opponents will beat up. Hoping he can be that scoring punch the bench needs but not sure he will this year, especially early to mid season.

Everyone else: inexperienced, limited, rookies. They will have to take up the 10-12 slots on the depth chart and though many may scoff at that on last year's team that meant playing 1200 minutes from those slots for the year. If one the the stars gets hurt, like Horford did last year, these guys have to produce and I don't think they can. Most of this group will be being shuttled back and forth to Portland.

This team is screaming for another veteran big and a veteran shooter. The bench basically has a 4th year guy who can't shoot, two kids with one year of experience, a limited vet big and 6 rookies. The starters may be great but unless they are all going to play 36+ minutes per game this team is going to need this bench to produce and I just don't think they can.


Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #76 on: September 19, 2017, 07:57:15 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Just a few things:

My pessimism is for this year. I think Ainge upgraded the talent but a lot of that talent is undeveloped. Long term, I love what he has done. I just don't see 53+ wins and a guarantee to the ECF nevermind beating Lebron to get to the Finals.

My take on the player order last year to this year:

Best player: IT>KI
2nd Best: Bradley<<Hayward
3rd Best: Horford=Horford
4th Best: Crowder>Brown or Morris, whoever you want to place here.
Rest: Last year >> This year due to experience and cohesion.

Sorry, you have to understand that Crowder was traded because Jaylen Brown is a far more talented player than he is.

I think Crowder was traded because his salary matched, more than anything else.

Jaylen seems to have more upside, and more natural ability. To nick's point, though, does that make him a better player next season?

We all hope so, of course. If I were betting, though, I'd predict that Jae has the better season.

There is zero doubt in my mind that Crowder was moved in part because Danny wants to free up minutes for Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum. 

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #77 on: September 19, 2017, 07:59:37 PM »

Offline mctyson

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I know people are arguing that we are more top heavy in talent than last year's team so we will be better but I am still concerned about the possible bench.(I know either Brown or Smart will start but will address my concerns about both as bench players).

I think the biggest part of your argument that is true that you haven't made is that the team - on paper - has not addressed some of the deficiencies from last year: rebounding and team defense.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #78 on: September 19, 2017, 07:59:51 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #79 on: September 19, 2017, 08:02:37 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Just a few things:

My pessimism is for this year. I think Ainge upgraded the talent but a lot of that talent is undeveloped. Long term, I love what he has done. I just don't see 53+ wins and a guarantee to the ECF nevermind beating Lebron to get to the Finals.

My take on the player order last year to this year:

Best player: IT>KI
2nd Best: Bradley<<Hayward
3rd Best: Horford=Horford
4th Best: Crowder>Brown or Morris, whoever you want to place here.
Rest: Last year >> This year due to experience and cohesion.

Sorry, you have to understand that Crowder was traded because Jaylen Brown is a far more talented player than he is.

I think Crowder was traded because his salary matched, more than anything else.

Jaylen seems to have more upside, and more natural ability. To nick's point, though, does that make him a better player next season?

We all hope so, of course. If I were betting, though, I'd predict that Jae has the better season.

There is zero doubt in my mind that Crowder was moved in part because Danny wants to free up minutes for Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum.

Maybe. If the Kyrie trade doesn't happen I think that Jae is still here, but it's impossible to tell.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #80 on: September 19, 2017, 08:02:59 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #81 on: September 19, 2017, 08:09:15 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.

The roster has more top end talent. That doesn't mean that IT's loss won't be felt, or that a player playing at a similar level is not "needed".  The efficiency in particular is tough to replace.



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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #82 on: September 19, 2017, 08:15:52 PM »

Offline chambers

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I think the OP's post is being slightly misrepresented because of his bench analysis.
Nick isn't saying that last years team was better or more talented, he's just saying his expectations for this particular year are a bit more toned down amongst all the hype- especially given the time they might need to become cohesive.

To me, this team is soooo much better than last years team. Why?

1) More talent, more stars
2) Bigger, longer, more athletic
3) Coach has finished his first deep playoff run and the experience that comes with that is priceless.

We lost a few end of bench role players that were fun to watch and made us buy in emotionally, but the reality is the only thing keeping this team from being better than last year is time played together and lack of familiarity with the offense and defense. eg Kyrie might take 6 months to work out where guys will be on certain plays to kick out, and Hayward/Kyrie/Morris might be a step behind on defensive rotations.

The only thing stopping this team from torching last years team is gel time. They may not get there by the end of this upcoming season, but by next offseason they will be way better.

Let's hope Brad can get them to buy in immediately.
As constructed I think it's possible to get to the ECF this year with a bit of luck and that should be our expectation.
After a year of playing together I think being competitive in the finals should be the expectation given how weak the East will be.
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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #83 on: September 20, 2017, 01:22:47 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.

The roster has more top end talent. That doesn't mean that IT's loss won't be felt, or that a player playing at a similar level is not "needed".  The efficiency in particular is tough to replace.

We do have a player who will be playing at a similar level - Kyrie Irving.

Here are Isaiah's offensive numbers from last year:

28.9 PPG
5.9 APG
2.8 TO
0.6 OREB
54.6% eFG%
62.5% TS%
34% USG

Here are Kyrie's numbers:

25.2 PPG
5.8 APG
2.5 TO
0.7 OREB
53.5% eFG%
58.0% TS%
30.8% USG

I think it's safe to say that those production levels are 'similar'.

We aren't talking about a drop from 29 PPG to 18 PPG here...we are talking abut a 4 PPG drop in scoring output (partially offset by Kyrie's lower usage rate) and a 4% drop in TS%.  Aside from this the two players had practically identical stats across the board.

So you are basically:
* Replacing about 90% of Isaiah's production from last year with Kyrie
* Replacing about 60% of Avery's production with whoever we start at SG (the biggest loss)
* Replacing about 180% of Crowder's production from last year with Hayward
* Replacing about 200% of Amir's production from last year with Morris
* Retaining 100% of Horford's production from last year by keeping Horford

I think our starting lineup is very easily at a plus there - it's the bench that I, personally, am worried about here.

My concern with the bench is simply how unproven the majority of our bench players are, assuming Smart stats (which all signs seem to suggest). 

We pretty much know what to expect from Baynes, but aside from that it's an open book.  We really have no clue what we are going to get from Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Theis, Yabusele, Nader, Larkin, etc.  Absolutely no clue. 

That list of guys is so unpredictable that it could just as easily be the a top 5 bench or a bottom 5 bench depending on which way any number of those dominos fall.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2017, 01:28:44 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #84 on: September 20, 2017, 07:01:43 AM »

Offline Surferdad

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #85 on: September 20, 2017, 07:20:17 AM »

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Quote
We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.

Well said. TP

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #86 on: September 20, 2017, 07:32:59 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #87 on: September 20, 2017, 08:17:09 AM »

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I'm sorry, but this thread is probably the saddest attempt to justify this mess of an off-season I have seen in a long time on this blog.

What people are basically asking for is "more time", and the season hasn't even begun, yet. "Please don't judge us if we don't win right away". Sounds to me like you are just getting your excuses in early.

What about the fact that before the off-season, we had flexibility, whereas now we're committed? Comitted to a team whose ceiling is an also-ran, basically the new Clippers?

Danny invested the two biggest assets this franchise had in over 30 years, it is entirely reasonable and appropriate to expect instant, marked improvement.

"But we got younger".

So we have more years of a team not good enough to win it all? And I should be excited about that for what reason exactly?

"Well, we can't expect a finals appearance. Last year's team massively over-achieved".

If last year's team over-achieved, why did we feel the need to go all-in then? Why commit?

And on and on and on it goes, just so nobody has to lose face in case this ominous super-team we've all dreamt about for the past few years never comes to pass. Imo, just a classic case of emotional sunk-cost fallacy.

"This has to be good, right? No way we fumble on the last few yards and mess up this sure-fire, once in a lifetime opportunity."

But deep down you know this isn't nearly good enough, this team isn't even close to what you were (rightfully) expecting, considering our assets. That's really all there is to threads like these...
"In Danny we trust" is so 2016.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #88 on: September 20, 2017, 08:19:34 AM »

Offline dreamgreen

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

The stats are reflective of IT's level of play. IT had one of the all-time great offensive seasons in NBA history.  It sounds like hyperbole, until you look at the numbers. Volume scoring with that efficiency is almost unheard of.

When considering whether there will be a step back, you have to consider how great IT was.

Yeah he was great, on a team without Gordon Hayward who will obviously command a major share of offense now. 

We have to accept that IT's top-5 MVP performance last year was both great but also completely necessary and a function of the roster.  This roster is different and that type of player is no longer needed.
TP for that statement.  A lot of people who are critical of the trade are not taking this into account.

I'm not taking it into account because it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Dozens of guys have scored 28+ points per game. Hundreds have averaged 5 apg. Three players in history have done both while maintaining the efficiency of IT, and the other two are both MVPs.

IMO IT had a great year on a decent team. To have a very good or great team IT can't have those kind of numbers it wont work. He commanded the ball and took a lot of shots, lots of times it was him vs. the other team. You can't be a great team with that even if it was Michael Jordan.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #89 on: September 20, 2017, 08:32:14 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If last year's team over-achieved, why did we feel the need to go all-in then? Why commit?
Because Ainge had to pick a direction.  I have been saying that for a long time with a lot of push back on this board, but this summer was the decision point.  Ainge either had to commit to a rebuild building around the young kids or commit to go forward utilizing assets to add high end talent.  Once he was able to land Hayward, it became apparent that he had to move some of the assets to upgrade other roster positions.  It just wasn't feasible to keep trying to win now and rebuild at the same time because he would have harmed both (by either stunting the growth of the young kids or wasting his window with Horford, Hayward, and Thomas by not getting them enough help).  I liked the trade if for no other reason, Ainge finally made a decision on what he wanted to do with the team (It is the same reason I was one of the few people on one of the prior iterations of this board that was gung ho from the get go with the Ray Allen trade in 2008).  Thus, I fully expect Ainge, at some point this season, to make some short term moves utilizing more draft picks and young players (not the LAL pick unless it is a star, but Boston has plenty of future 1st's at its disposal) to add some vets to go for at least the Finals this year, especially if Cleveland looks at all vulnerable (like say Thomas still isn't playing by the trade deadline or something like that). 
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