Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 11182 times)

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #60 on: September 19, 2017, 01:50:43 PM »

Offline KGBirdBias

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This years Celtics team has way more talent than last year. I'm not sure how that talent will gel but BS got a lot out of many less talented squads.

I agree with this. I think just on chemistry they will not be as good early but I think the plan is really for 2018 and beyond. This year will be about playing together, learning the system and building a culture. I think they will be a high scoring team but a poor defensive team.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #61 on: September 19, 2017, 02:14:14 PM »

Offline RockinRyA

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First let me say that I want the Celtics to be better than last year. I want them in the Finals competing for the championship. I want everything to go just right. I want those things, I just don't think it will happen.

First, this is a brand new team with little to no resemblance to the solid, deep team that went to the ECF last year. Newly constructed teams take time to meld together. Everyone needs to learn their role and learn their team mates strengths, weaknesses and tendencies. Newly put together teams don't normally gel as quckly and as successfully as the 2007-08 Celtics. That team was the statistical anamoly, not the norm. I think expecting this team to come together that quick and be a +56-57 win team is unrealistic.

Second, we were good last year because we were deep. We had one all-star/MVP candidate and a whole bunch of great role players that made this team 12 deep with experience. On any given night last year you could get 15+ points in a game from bench players Olynyk, Jerebko, Green, Smart, Brown and Rozier. And though Zeller never could score that much as a twelfth guy he could give solid minutes.

This year that is gone. Baynes isn't a scorer. Smart or Brown will be a starter. Crowder, who would have been our 6th man, is gone. Rozier will be back but every other player has zero NBA experience. All you have to do to see how inexperienced teams do in the NBA is watch the young teams that litter the lottery every year. Unless Smart fixes his shot or Brown and/or  Tatum develop instantly into scorers that can give you that 15-20 points a game fairly consistently, this team will not be deep. And the bench could give up tons of points on top of being outscored every game.

Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year and Cleveland could have this year and as I said earlier, Crowder is gone. Zizic looked awful in Summer League and probably would have sat a lot and been awful when he got in, but he is big and can at least rebound and foul a lot helping to preserve our bigs: Horford, Baynes, Morris. We don't have a player like that anymore.

And if you're expecting Kyrie to be a substantial defensive upgrade over IT, you're going to be disappointed. I could care less if he is 5" taller than Thomas, he is as bad a defender as Isaiah, just for different reasons. He will need to be hid on defense a lot.

I think the trade can't be judged to see who won it for many years. I think short term we lost it but I think long term we could have won it. We will see.

Overall, I think Ainge took this team a step back this year to take 2-3 steps forwards in years to come. He is booking on Kyrie being here for 7 years and being the face of the team. He is booking on Brown, Hayward, Tatum and the LA/Sac pick all playing at star level in 3-4 years. And he is betting that he hits with some of the inexperience and youth like Yabusele, Nader, Theis, Ojeleye and future late picks for them to become very good rotational contributors. That's a lot of uncertainty and its something you usually see in lottery teams, not contenders.

I hope my pessimism is replaced, but as most you who have seen my posts over the years know, I am not high on unproven youth. So I just want to say, especially to those in the game threads, don't go crazy if we aren't a 60 win team or even a ECF team. This team may not even win as many games as last year and could be too shallow and thin to be a successful playoff team this year.

If IT was healthy then yes, its arguably a step back. However it looks like he will miss significant time, and its gonna be hard to start well without him.

The team is good enough, our 8-9 guys are pretty solid, comparable to last year. The real problem lies in our lack of bigs, which is a real problem if either horford or baynes gets injured.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #62 on: September 19, 2017, 03:53:27 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #63 on: September 19, 2017, 04:31:01 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

So you reference Thomas' regular season numbers, but fail to point out his career playoff production? That said, I don't think Irving will have too hard of a time surpassing Thomas' inefficient 40% from the field 30% from 3.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #64 on: September 19, 2017, 04:46:30 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

So you reference Thomas' regular season numbers, but fail to point out his career playoff production? That said, I don't think Irving will have too hard of a time surpassing Thomas' inefficient 40% from the field 30% from 3.

Why would we look at career numbers when talking about last year?

Despite being injured, IT put up only 2.6 fewer ppg, despite taking 3.2 fewer shots. He averaged more assists and rebounds despite playing fewer numbers.




« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 05:00:32 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2017, 04:59:10 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.


Do you think he'll be as high as IT was for TO's he was 15th in the league last year?  JK

You're comparing a guy that was not the first option on his team to a guy that was and they are still close stats wise.  He put up stats next to IT as the second fiddle.   Give the guy the chance, IT is gone, it stinks but that is the way it is folks.

IT was phenomenal last year.   But there is a chance that he won't be the same player.   I am not wishing it on him, I hope he recovers, but it could happen.   When a short guy's speed and athletic ability cease to grant him the ability to get separation then it will be shot block city and probably be the end for his career.  I hope that does not happen to IT, I hope he plays well and gets paid.   But Ainge had access to the doctor reports and he pulled the trigger, that could mean something.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2017, 05:47:00 PM »

Offline 2short

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.
But do you believe we are in all probability taking a step backward with kyrie over IT?

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #67 on: September 19, 2017, 06:03:54 PM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season.

Neither will IT. That was a career year that even if healthy he likely never reaches again.

I'm more interested in what both players look like going forward. Comparing what Kyrie might do this year to what IT did last year is futile, the circumstances surrounding both players isn't the same and in all likelihood we don't need Kyrie to do what IT did statistically last year as we have more surrounding talent now.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #68 on: September 19, 2017, 06:21:39 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season.

Neither will IT. That was a career year that even if healthy he likely never reaches again.


That's possibly true, but it's irrelevant to this thread, which specifically compares this year's team to last year's.



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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #69 on: September 19, 2017, 06:29:37 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.
But do you believe we are in all probability taking a step backward with kyrie over IT?

In terms of 2016 Celtics vs 2017 Celtics?

Yes. IT had an amazing year, he ran an excellent passing offense, and he was a team leader who was beneficial.

Long-term is a topic for a different thread, but my feelings in general are pretty widely known.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #70 on: September 19, 2017, 06:30:03 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season.

Neither will IT. That was a career year that even if healthy he likely never reaches again.


That's possibly true, but it's irrelevant to this thread, which specifically compares this year's team to last year's.

I haven't seen that many people on here argue that the Celtics will not take a step back next year. Some are saying they could be as good (getting crushed in the ECF), but I haven't read anyone state that they'll win it all.

I have read a bunch of posts where people agree that the Celtics are likely better off in the long term as a result of this offseason.

So yes, while this topic can be viewed exclusively through the lens of last year vs this year, I'm not sure that level of analysis is all that interesting. I find the Celtics future to be much more interesting than predicting which Eastern Conference team will beat them in the playoffs next year.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #71 on: September 19, 2017, 06:33:08 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season.

Neither will IT. That was a career year that even if healthy he likely never reaches again.


That's possibly true, but it's irrelevant to this thread, which specifically compares this year's team to last year's.

I haven't seen that many people on here argue that the Celtics will not take a step back next year. Some are saying they could be as good (getting crushed in the ECF), but I haven't read anyone state that they'll win it all.

I have read a bunch of posts where people agree that the Celtics are likely better off in the long term as a result of this offseason.

So yes, while this topic can be viewed exclusively through the lens of last year vs this year, I'm not sure that level of analysis is all that interesting. I find the Celtics future to be much more interesting than predicting which Eastern Conference team will beat them in the playoffs next year.

Sure. Feel free to start a new thread on it. Nick's thread is about whether there will be a step back this coming season. I personally think it's an interesting topic, but to each their own.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #72 on: September 19, 2017, 07:48:41 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Just a few things:

My pessimism is for this year. I think Ainge upgraded the talent but a lot of that talent is undeveloped. Long term, I love what he has done. I just don't see 53+ wins and a guarantee to the ECF nevermind beating Lebron to get to the Finals.

My take on the player order last year to this year:

Best player: IT>KI
2nd Best: Bradley<<Hayward
3rd Best: Horford=Horford
4th Best: Crowder>Brown or Morris, whoever you want to place here.
Rest: Last year >> This year due to experience and cohesion.

Sorry, you have to understand that Crowder was traded because Jaylen Brown is a far more talented player than he is.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #73 on: September 19, 2017, 07:52:38 PM »

Offline mctyson

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Kyrie won't replicate IT's season. Three players in the history of the NBA have averaged 28+ points, 5+ assists, .620+ TS% and .540+ eFG%. IT, Curry, Durant. That's it.

So, we're in all probability looking at a step backward there.

Whether we're an overall better playoff team will depend a lot on whether Jaylen and Smart have progressed.

Roy - how do ITs stats for last year's team matter for a team that has completely turned over it's roster?

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #74 on: September 19, 2017, 07:54:10 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Just a few things:

My pessimism is for this year. I think Ainge upgraded the talent but a lot of that talent is undeveloped. Long term, I love what he has done. I just don't see 53+ wins and a guarantee to the ECF nevermind beating Lebron to get to the Finals.

My take on the player order last year to this year:

Best player: IT>KI
2nd Best: Bradley<<Hayward
3rd Best: Horford=Horford
4th Best: Crowder>Brown or Morris, whoever you want to place here.
Rest: Last year >> This year due to experience and cohesion.

Sorry, you have to understand that Crowder was traded because Jaylen Brown is a far more talented player than he is.

I think Crowder was traded because his salary matched, more than anything else.

Jaylen seems to have more upside, and more natural ability. To nick's point, though, does that make him a better player next season?

We all hope so, of course. If I were betting, though, I'd predict that Jae has the better season.


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