Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 11149 times)

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #45 on: September 19, 2017, 08:35:42 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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rookie Tatum = KO

I've got no idea what we'll get out of Tatum next year. I don't expect him to be as good as KO, either defensively or shooting-wise. He's got NBA moves, but not a refined NBA game yet.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #46 on: September 19, 2017, 08:56:20 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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rookie Tatum = KO

I've got no idea what we'll get out of Tatum next year. I don't expect him to be as good as KO, either defensively or shooting-wise. He's got NBA moves, but not a refined NBA game yet.

I think he's "straight out of the box" good enough offensively for this league.  Nothing I saw from SL jumped out at me defensively, though.

I expect more out of his rookie year than the Celtics got out of Brown.  Question will be how many minutes will the kid be afforded.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2017, 09:20:16 AM »

Offline johnnygreen

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This idea that Kyrie needs to be better than Isaiah was last season is ridiculous. If Isaiah was healthy and the trade never happened, then even Isaiah wouldn't have come close again to putting up 29 ppg. With the addition of Hayward, the scoring burden on Isaiah was going to be less significant, where a more realistic ppg being 22-24. If healthy, how would have Isaiah performed in his contract year with another legitimate scorer taking shots and points away from him? In close games, Brad would have taken some of those big shot moments away from Isaiah, in favor of Hayward. Do you honestly think Isaiah would be fine with that, especially in a his quest to get a max contract? Remember Isaiah throwing Brad under the bus after that game in Phoenix because the game winner wasn't designed for him? I love Isaiah and wish him nothing but the best, but at some point last season it went from the Celtics as a team to Isaiah and the Celtics.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2017, 09:20:34 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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Let's just do a comparison

Irving > Thomas
Hayward > Horford
Horford > Bradley

That is the top 3 players, all are better than their counterpart last year

That's really bizarre math.   Why wouldn't we do that comparison like so:

Irving > Thomas (Today, with an injured Thomas.  Not necessarily last season.)
Horford == Horford
Hayward > Bradley

So really, it's not exactly a case where all three of our best players now are better than all three of our best players last year.   Horford is Horford.  Yes, he may play better with a year in this system.  But he'll also be a year older and the system around him will be with totally new teammates.  And being a 'glue' guy, a lot will be on his shoulders to make all these new parts work together.

It isn't bizarre at all.  Last year Horford was the #2, this year he is the #3, so while he may be slightly worse as a player, he is a rung lower and will still out perform Bradley who was the #3 last year.

You are using dubious re-ordering logic in order to 'count better players' rather than really evaluate how/where we are actually better.   That's pure spin. 

Unless KI puts up an All-NBA season, we are not better than last year at the 1.  And unless Al Horford suddenly gets younger we are likely about the same with him.

The difference in talent is pretty much almost all due to the addition of Hayward.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2017, 09:43:06 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Let's just do a comparison

Irving > Thomas
Hayward > Horford
Horford > Bradley

That is the top 3 players, all are better than their counterpart last year

That's really bizarre math.   Why wouldn't we do that comparison like so:

Irving > Thomas (Today, with an injured Thomas.  Not necessarily last season.)
Horford == Horford
Hayward > Bradley

So really, it's not exactly a case where all three of our best players now are better than all three of our best players last year.   Horford is Horford.  Yes, he may play better with a year in this system.  But he'll also be a year older and the system around him will be with totally new teammates.  And being a 'glue' guy, a lot will be on his shoulders to make all these new parts work together.

It isn't bizarre at all.  Last year Horford was the #2, this year he is the #3, so while he may be slightly worse as a player, he is a rung lower and will still out perform Bradley who was the #3 last year.

You are using dubious re-ordering logic in order to 'count better players' rather than really evaluate how/where we are actually better.   That's pure spin. 

Unless KI puts up an All-NBA season, we are not better than last year at the 1.  And unless Al Horford suddenly gets younger we are likely about the same with him.

The difference in talent is pretty much almost all due to the addition of Hayward.
It isn't pure spin at all.  When you add better players, you shift players down, and their roles change.  You can't compare Horford as a #2 to Horford as a #3.  They have vastly different roles offensively (defensively not much changes) and as such are relied upon for vastly different things.  That is what adding Hayward did for the team.  It shifted Horford into his much more suited #3 player role where his passing and ability to nail an open shot are much more effective. 
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #50 on: September 19, 2017, 09:51:59 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I think if people are expecting this season by Kyrie to be better than last season by IT, you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.  IT had a generationally good season.  I think Kyrie is going to be better for the next two seasons than IT is going to be for the next two seasons (and that is ignoring that we likely would have only gotten one injury plagued season from IT) and that is why this trade was made.

The bigger change for the team is Hayward in for Bradley out.  This will likely be an upgrade but I am a big Bradley fan.  Bradley has durability issues but he is a very good player.  Hayward is more durable and we shall see but likely a better all around player, but this is not some huge upgrade.  I think Morris in for Amir Johnson may end up being more of a net gain for the team.

This trade was about aligning the window.  IT may surprise everyone again and put up 3 or 4 really good seasons but Kyrie is a safer bet for that.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #51 on: September 19, 2017, 10:15:58 AM »

Offline Granath

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The bigger change for the team is Hayward in for Bradley out.  This will likely be an upgrade but I am a big Bradley fan.  Bradley has durability issues but he is a very good player.  Hayward is more durable and we shall see but likely a better all around player, but this is not some huge upgrade.  I think Morris in for Amir Johnson may end up being more of a net gain for the team.

You're underestimating Hayward. Hayward is not "likely" a better all around player. He's a far better all around player.

Remember, I'm the one who posted an "Ode to Avery Bradley" about a year ago. I've consistently been his biggest fan on this board. But he's not in the same ballpark at Hayward. Bradley is consistently a 15/4/2 guy. He had a career month or two to start last season which skewed his stats for scoring and rebounding. But it's easy to see that was an aberration as he steadily declined throughout the year. Bradley is a top notch defender who provides some nice outside shooting. He's not a playmaker, a consistent rebounder, a guy who can create his own shot or a guy who gets to the FT line. He can only play one position - SG - because he doesn't pass well enough to play PG and he's too small to play SF. He also misses about 15 games a season due to injury.

Hayward, on the other hand, is significantly better. He's a 21/5/4 guy in a system that isn't as good as it could be for his talents. He shoots just as well from outside but can create his own shot. This is not to be underestimated. He's not the recipient of good passes the way Bradley is. He's making things happen on the court for the other guys. He rebounds a bit better and is a better passer. He gets to the line more often as well. He can play 3 positions at 6'8" (though he's best as a SF) and he consistently plays more than 70 games a year. He's a plus defender even if he's not as good as Bradley.

The advanced stats bear this out. Hayward's VORP is about 4 times what Bradley's is. Plus/Minus, Win Shares, W/48 - you name it and Hayward has far and away the better metrics. They're not even in the same ballpark.

Now what's funny is I had a similar position about Bradley vs. Jimmy Butler. But the difference in that discussion was the 2 1st round picks that everyone wanted to send along with Bradley to get Jimmy B. I said that was too much given Bradley's production. Now that we know those picks turned out to be Irving and Tatum, I think most everyone would agree with me at this point. But that's not the case here. Hayward didn't cost us anything besides the cap space that cost us Bradley and KO. That's a heck of an upgrade in my book and far more than Morris for Amir.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #52 on: September 19, 2017, 10:26:16 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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rookie Tatum = KO

I've got no idea what we'll get out of Tatum next year. I don't expect him to be as good as KO, either defensively or shooting-wise. He's got NBA moves, but not a refined NBA game yet.

What rookie has a more refined NBA game than Tatum? How often do rookies come in with a refined NBA game? I'm not sure how Danny is expecting him to be refined. I'm sure he will start on the bench, and Brad knows how young he is. While Tatum might be more refined than Jaylen offensively this year, both players are still very young. The refinement will come through experience.

I am so happy that the Celtics didn't throw good money at KO. While he may be more refined than Tatum this year, he is definitely not as valuable long term. No team in the league would trade Tatum for KO straight up.

This trade was about the future. Not the past. Not for this year. Danny made the trade so that they would contend once the Warriors need to make tough financial decisions.

Paul Pierce has a refined offensive game, but at this point of his career (ie retired), is lacking the athleticism to be a special player. KO is much younger than Pierce, yet he lacks the athleticism/ability to pound down low which limits his ceiling.

KO vs Tatum this year doesn't seem that relevant to where this team is going.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 10:39:12 AM by green_bballers13 »

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #53 on: September 19, 2017, 10:41:26 AM »

Offline Granath

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rookie Tatum = KO

I've got no idea what we'll get out of Tatum next year. I don't expect him to be as good as KO, either defensively or shooting-wise. He's got NBA moves, but not a refined NBA game yet.

I do, at least offensively.

KO had a nice year. He averaged 9/5/2 in 20 minutes. He had a nice eFG of .579 but his career number is .537. He's still a set piece kind of guy who doesn't create offense. He's been a great role player for us.

I think Tatum will average similar numbers in similar minutes. While he probably won't be as efficient, he will however be able to generate his own offense which is something the 2nd unit desperately lacked last year. So even if he's not as efficient as KO, he will be able to provide additional benefits that KO could not.

With the exception of breaking people's arms. That's a Kelly special.

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #54 on: September 19, 2017, 10:54:19 AM »

Offline billysan

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I think it is realistic to have tempered expectations with a young team like ours. I feel like it may very well take a season or even 2 before we develop chemistry and get guys in the right roles to seriously contend. A 2nd round exit this year may be our ceiling but I'm looking for teamwork and unselfish play.

We certainly have the talent to be a finals candidate going forward for  a few years. It would not surprise me to see Kyrie and Hayward work hard to prove they are unselfish teammates. I think especially Kyrie will work hard on his defense and leadership.

Jaylen, Marcus and Terry all have opportunities here to excel  in their roles. If they do, it will set a great example for Tatum to follow.  My greatest concern is lack of leadership. Who is going to step up? Horford  sets a quiet example that I hope some younger guys will emulate.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #55 on: September 19, 2017, 11:33:40 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Let's just do a comparison

Irving > Thomas
Hayward > Horford
Horford > Bradley

That is the top 3 players, all are better than their counterpart last year

That's really bizarre math.   Why wouldn't we do that comparison like so:

Irving > Thomas (Today, with an injured Thomas.  Not necessarily last season.)
Horford == Horford
Hayward > Bradley

So really, it's not exactly a case where all three of our best players now are better than all three of our best players last year.   Horford is Horford.  Yes, he may play better with a year in this system.  But he'll also be a year older and the system around him will be with totally new teammates.  And being a 'glue' guy, a lot will be on his shoulders to make all these new parts work together.

It isn't bizarre at all.  Last year Horford was the #2, this year he is the #3, so while he may be slightly worse as a player, he is a rung lower and will still out perform Bradley who was the #3 last year.

You are using dubious re-ordering logic in order to 'count better players' rather than really evaluate how/where we are actually better.   That's pure spin. 

Unless KI puts up an All-NBA season, we are not better than last year at the 1.  And unless Al Horford suddenly gets younger we are likely about the same with him.

The difference in talent is pretty much almost all due to the addition of Hayward.
He's ranking the players from last year and the players from this upcoming season and comparing them to their counterparts in the ranking. It might not be your preference or how you'd rank the players but the logic is pretty unassailable. It also shows how the top level talent has changed on the team.

I don't see a problem with comparing the two teams in a variety of ways.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #56 on: September 19, 2017, 11:43:53 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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But some folks here clearly fell in love with the scrappiness of our guys. 
I think every Celtics fan fell in love with last year's teams scrappiness. That, however, has nothing to do with my opinion that this coming season we may have taken a step back for reasons I have outlined. As I said, long term I think Ainge has done an incredible job. Just next year we might take one step back to take three steps forward the year after that.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #57 on: September 19, 2017, 12:44:56 PM »

Offline JBcat

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As far as comparing last year's team to this year's it may be only a slight increase in win totals.

IT had a legendary season last year especially in the 4th quarter.  I don't think Irving can exceed what IT, and at best match it.  We'll see though.

I don't think Brown or Smart can match Bradley's production just yet in the starting lineup.

Hayward is obviously a huge upgrade on Crowder.

Morris is a different type of player than Johnson but probably an upgrade.

Horford is a year older in his 30s so at best he will match his production from last year but could decline some.

With the bench Smart and Rozier will be a year with more experience so that will definitely help. I think Tatum should match Green's production. Baynes isn't the scorer KO but may be just as good a player.

So when I look at our roster comparing to last year the big swing in our favor is Hayward over Crowder. That has me a little more excited.

What has me even more excited is we are better situated for the long term.  In 2 or 3 years Irving is probably better than Thomas, Brown and Smart better than Bradley, Hayward still much better than Crowder, and Tatum a hell a lot better than Green was last year.

What still needs some long term fixing is our bigs situation. Baynes is only signed for 1 year, Morris 2, and Horford 3 but could be declining every year.  Ainge needs to figure that out.  Maybe Yabusele will surprise us.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #58 on: September 19, 2017, 01:07:45 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Let's just do a comparison

Irving > Thomas
Hayward > Horford
Horford > Bradley

That is the top 3 players, all are better than their counterpart last year

That's really bizarre math.   Why wouldn't we do that comparison like so:

Irving > Thomas (Today, with an injured Thomas.  Not necessarily last season.)
Horford == Horford
Hayward > Bradley

So really, it's not exactly a case where all three of our best players now are better than all three of our best players last year.   Horford is Horford.  Yes, he may play better with a year in this system.  But he'll also be a year older and the system around him will be with totally new teammates.  And being a 'glue' guy, a lot will be on his shoulders to make all these new parts work together.

It isn't bizarre at all.  Last year Horford was the #2, this year he is the #3, so while he may be slightly worse as a player, he is a rung lower and will still out perform Bradley who was the #3 last year.

You are using dubious re-ordering logic in order to 'count better players' rather than really evaluate how/where we are actually better.   That's pure spin. 

Unless KI puts up an All-NBA season, we are not better than last year at the 1.  And unless Al Horford suddenly gets younger we are likely about the same with him.

The difference in talent is pretty much almost all due to the addition of Hayward.
He's ranking the players from last year and the players from this upcoming season and comparing them to their counterparts in the ranking. It might not be your preference or how you'd rank the players but the logic is pretty unassailable. It also shows how the top level talent has changed on the team.

I don't see a problem with comparing the two teams in a variety of ways.

It's spin.

Let's say I've got three vehicles:  A blue VW bug.  A very nice pickup truck.  An old run-down Corolla.

I replace the run-down Corolla with a new Audi S6.  And I paint the blue VW bug red.

How many vehicles are 'better' than the ones I had before?

Moranis' logic is:

Red VW > Blue VW (because he likes red better)
Audi S6 > Pickup Truck
Pickup Truck > old run-down corolla

Therefore, with this logic, I've upgraded all three vehicles!!!  :laugh:

Spin.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #59 on: September 19, 2017, 01:17:18 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Does it really matter? Who cares if its spin or not? The Celtics have upgraded their team by leveraging draft picks, solid role players (Bradley, Crowder), and a promising but slow center (Zizic) for another solid role player (Morris), a super role player (Hayward), and a star scorer (Irving).

Oh, and they drafted two forwards in the last two years that will now have time to play.

It's a winning offseason, the Celtics are better in the long term, and the short term doesn't really matter, unless Steph and KD get hurt in the playoffs.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 02:00:13 PM by green_bballers13 »