Author Topic: Not as optimistic of this team as some  (Read 11181 times)

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Not as optimistic of this team as some
« on: September 18, 2017, 12:30:35 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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First let me say that I want the Celtics to be better than last year. I want them in the Finals competing for the championship. I want everything to go just right. I want those things, I just don't think it will happen.

First, this is a brand new team with little to no resemblance to the solid, deep team that went to the ECF last year. Newly constructed teams take time to meld together. Everyone needs to learn their role and learn their team mates strengths, weaknesses and tendencies. Newly put together teams don't normally gel as quckly and as successfully as the 2007-08 Celtics. That team was the statistical anamoly, not the norm. I think expecting this team to come together that quick and be a +56-57 win team is unrealistic.

Second, we were good last year because we were deep. We had one all-star/MVP candidate and a whole bunch of great role players that made this team 12 deep with experience. On any given night last year you could get 15+ points in a game from bench players Olynyk, Jerebko, Green, Smart, Brown and Rozier. And though Zeller never could score that much as a twelfth guy he could give solid minutes.

This year that is gone. Baynes isn't a scorer. Smart or Brown will be a starter. Crowder, who would have been our 6th man, is gone. Rozier will be back but every other player has zero NBA experience. All you have to do to see how inexperienced teams do in the NBA is watch the young teams that litter the lottery every year. Unless Smart fixes his shot or Brown and/or  Tatum develop instantly into scorers that can give you that 15-20 points a game fairly consistently, this team will not be deep. And the bench could give up tons of points on top of being outscored every game.

Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year and Cleveland could have this year and as I said earlier, Crowder is gone. Zizic looked awful in Summer League and probably would have sat a lot and been awful when he got in, but he is big and can at least rebound and foul a lot helping to preserve our bigs: Horford, Baynes, Morris. We don't have a player like that anymore.

And if you're expecting Kyrie to be a substantial defensive upgrade over IT, you're going to be disappointed. I could care less if he is 5" taller than Thomas, he is as bad a defender as Isaiah, just for different reasons. He will need to be hid on defense a lot.

I think the trade can't be judged to see who won it for many years. I think short term we lost it but I think long term we could have won it. We will see.

Overall, I think Ainge took this team a step back this year to take 2-3 steps forwards in years to come. He is booking on Kyrie being here for 7 years and being the face of the team. He is booking on Brown, Hayward, Tatum and the LA/Sac pick all playing at star level in 3-4 years. And he is betting that he hits with some of the inexperience and youth like Yabusele, Nader, Theis, Ojeleye and future late picks for them to become very good rotational contributors. That's a lot of uncertainty and its something you usually see in lottery teams, not contenders.

I hope my pessimism is replaced, but as most you who have seen my posts over the years know, I am not high on unproven youth. So I just want to say, especially to those in the game threads, don't go crazy if we aren't a 60 win team or even a ECF team. This team may not even win as many games as last year and could be too shallow and thin to be a successful playoff team this year.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2017, 12:35:58 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Solid post, and I agree that while there is a lot to be excited about going forward, there is also a lot of valid questions/doubts about the team too.

I honestly feel the same way (want to be optimistic but idk.. just can't). So many questions and this roster turnover is just...  :o

And while I can see they overpaid to make up for IT being injured, it was still a HUGE overpay and now they may not have enough assets to pull of a future trade for another star.

Hell, it feels like Zizic was put into the trade as a "throw-in", which is ridiculous considering many believe he would have been a Top-10 pick in the most recent draft.

Again I hope all works well, but until the season begins I will have doubts (a ton of them).

I saw Isaiah lead a team to an ECF (despite all the sh** he got for being short, ballhog, etc.), yet all I've seen Irving do is lead his team to Top-5 picks as an alpha (and even in the last few years, in games Lebron sat but Irving AND Love played... the Cavs were flat out garbage in those games still). 

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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 12:44:32 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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TP.

I liked the post, similar to how I felt.

The Celtics team last year wasn't ever going to be a true contender, but because they managed to do extremely well, and outperform expectations, we ended up with a nitty gritty team that hustled, and really just put their hearts out on the floor.

I don't think we're going to be the 1st seed. If anything, I actually think we'll end up as the 4th or 5th. I do think we'll get to the ECF. I have a feeling the Raptors aren't going to be that good, and the Wizards might end up as the 2nd or 3rd seed, but I'm not convinced they'll beat us. I think Kyrie and Hayward will prove to be a complete offensive duo, and in order for Kyrie to at least be the man.

He has to be willing to put it on both ends of the floor.

Stevens and Ainge seems really high on both, so I'll trust their judgment.


Solid post, and I agree that while there is a lot to be excited about going forward, there is also a lot of valid questions/doubts about the team too.

I honestly feel the same way (want to be optimistic but idk.. just can't). So many questions and this roster turnover is just...  :o

And while I can see they overpaid to make up for IT being injured, it was still a HUGE overpay and now they may not have enough assets to pull of a future trade for another star.

Hell, it feels like Zizic was put into the trade as a "throw-in", which is ridiculous considering many believe he would have been a Top-10 pick in the most recent draft.

Again I hope all works well, but until the season begins I will have doubts (a ton of them).

I saw Isaiah lead a team to an ECF (despite all the sh** he got for being short, ballhog, etc.), yet all I've seen Irving do is lead his team to Top-5 picks as an alpha (and even in the last few years, in games Lebron sat but Irving AND Love played... the Cavs were flat out garbage in those games still).

Can this argument or point die down already?...

Kyrie was inexperienced, young, and had come off a serious knee injury the year he was drafted... He was also sharing a back court with a ball dominant shooting guard who legit believed that he was superior.

AD, Cousins, and Kyrie are all fantastic players, but there are only very few players that can push a team that is irrefutably horrendus; into a playoff contender.

Also yes the metrics don't show him doing well when Lebron sits... But the entire team is literally built around Lebron. Yes Irving takes more shots, and higher USG %, but that's because he doesn't want to be limited by LBJ.

And I've always said this, but I think Kyrie is a better scorer than Lebron now, but I think Lebron is the far better player.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 12:51:41 PM by Monkhouse »
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2017, 01:03:40 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Let's just do a comparison

Irving > Thomas
Hayward > Horford
Horford > Bradley

That is the top 3 players, all are better than their counterpart last year

Let's look at the rest of the main rotation

Crowder, Smart, Johnson, Olynyk, Brown, Rozier vs. Smart, Brown, Rozier, Tatum, Morris, Baynes

I think that is much closer than you are really acknowledging.  Rozier, Smart and Brown should  be better than last year.  I think Morris and Baynes are better fits than Johnson and Olynyk, though obviously bring different things.  Crowder is definitely a better all around player than Tatum will be, but I do expect Tatum to be a better scorer and a guy that could drop 30 on any given night (that isn't Crowder's game).  So pretty close overall really, unless Smart, Brown, and Rozier don't progress or Tatum is just downright terrible. 

As for the deeper bench Jerekbo, Green, and Zeller had their moments and obviously would be better than a bunch of late round picks like Yabusele, Theis, and Ojeleye, but if you are winning or losing games on your deep bench, you are in trouble. 


That said, Boston is not going to beat Cleveland as the teams are presently constructed and if both teams are reasonably healthy.  Even without Thomas, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lebron/Love led Cavs to beat Boston and end up in the Finals again (though it would be a pretty interesting series in that scenario).  And the Cavs now have that BKN pick they can use to upgrade their roster further (I think they are way more inclined to make a trade than Boston is utilizing the LAL pick). 
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 01:23:39 PM by Moranis »
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 01:08:53 PM »

Offline Granath

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TP for a good post, Nick. I mostly agree but let me provide a bit of optimism for you. Shocking to some, I know, who think that I'm Negative Nanny because I'm cautious about the Irving deal.

1. The lack of cohesion could hurt us, no doubt. But most guys have picked up Brad's system quite quickly. I don't think this is a long process like trying to get players to understand The Triangle or anything like that. Moreover, Danny and Brad have found guys who like to play in this type of system. It will be easier to get guys on board when they feel comfortable doing what they're being asked to do.

There will be a disruption to chemistry. What Danny just did has never been attempted in the NBA before. But it may not be that bad, we have the perfect coach to do it and we're far more able to beat teams based on talent than we were last year.

2. We won because we were deep last year. We're top heavier this year and that's probably a good thing. We had to get bench contributions last year when the best 3 were IT, Horford and Bradley (in that order). Some guys like Amir were dead weight at times. That's been upgraded to Hayward, Irving and Horford. That's a big difference in starting firepower. We shouldn't need to be as deep.

(more on the reserves later)

3. Don't worry about Jaylen. He'll be ready. Jaylen really showed a lot post All-Star break last year and he's worked his tail off this offseason. He won't be a 15-20 ppg scorer but he'll put in 13-14ppg with good defense and that's enough when Hayward takes on more of the scoring load than Crowder could ever supply. Don't underestimate Brown - he's one of the reasons Danny made the deals he did. He believes that Jalyen can start in Bradley's place. That leaves Smart to steady the second unit.

4. What we lost in experience we gained in athleticism. This team is simply bigger, longer and stronger than last years' team, especially where it counts with Brad's system - in the wings. We're not putting 5'9" IT, 6'2" Bradley and 6'6" Crowder on the floor.  This year it's 6'3" Irving, 6'7" Brown and 6'8" Hayward hitting the floor.  Amir, Zeller, KO and Jerebko give way to Morris, Baynes, Tatum, Semi and Yabu. Those guys had years of experience and no doubt we're going to miss that. But with certain 2nd teams we got blown off the court because we didn't have anyone who could create a shot nor anyone who played above the rim. That problem largely goes away this year.

The other thing to consider is minutes will be harder to come by this year (barring injuries). Guys like Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, etc. are used to playing big minutes. Reserve minutes for the guys deeper on the bench will be precious and hopefully that spurs those guys to get better faster. It's the old "two dogs, one bone" scenario.

Finally, while our reserves have little NBA time, they aren't that inexperienced. Nader is 24. Theis is 25. Semi has 3 years of college. Jabari Bird has 4. Yabu has been playing overseas professional basketball for 3 years now. Rozier is in his 3rd year in the NBA and got 1,200 minutes last year. Smart's in his 4th year. They might not be as raw as you think.

That doesn't mean we won't have growing pains. But there's some reason to be cautiously optimistic that we may not take a step back this year.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2017, 01:19:44 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year

This piece really doesn't make any sense. IT isn't healthy this year so the Irving trade couldn't have weakened us. I suppose you mean last year's IT vs. this year's Kyrie, but Kyrie is really good and will surprise a lot of people. I also think that the stars aligned last year for IT. It's too bad for him that this wasn't his expiring year and that he didn't finish the season with a perfect hip. I see Rondo-type contracts for the rest of his career...if he can actually get healthy.

TPs to Granath and Moranis for providing more realistic frameworks for how the year should work out. Nobody is expecting us to be the Warriors, but having more star power at the top of our line-up with elite young players coming through the system should give most of us chills.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 01:37:46 PM »

Offline liam

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This years Celtics team has way more talent than last year. I'm not sure how that talent will gel but BS got a lot out of many less talented squads.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 01:48:00 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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TP for a good post, Nick. I mostly agree but let me provide a bit of optimism for you. Shocking to some, I know, who think that I'm Negative Nanny because I'm cautious about the Irving deal.

1. The lack of cohesion could hurt us, no doubt. But most guys have picked up Brad's system quite quickly. I don't think this is a long process like trying to get players to understand The Triangle or anything like that. Moreover, Danny and Brad have found guys who like to play in this type of system. It will be easier to get guys on board when they feel comfortable doing what they're being asked to do.

There will be a disruption to chemistry. What Danny just did has never been attempted in the NBA before. But it may not be that bad, we have the perfect coach to do it and we're far more able to beat teams based on talent than we were last year.

2. We won because we were deep last year. We're top heavier this year and that's probably a good thing. We had to get bench contributions last year when the best 3 were IT, Horford and Bradley (in that order). Some guys like Amir were dead weight at times. That's been upgraded to Hayward, Irving and Horford. That's a big difference in starting firepower. We shouldn't need to be as deep.

(more on the reserves later)

3. Don't worry about Jaylen. He'll be ready. Jaylen really showed a lot post All-Star break last year and he's worked his tail off this offseason. He won't be a 15-20 ppg scorer but he'll put in 13-14ppg with good defense and that's enough when Hayward takes on more of the scoring load than Crowder could ever supply. Don't underestimate Brown - he's one of the reasons Danny made the deals he did. He believes that Jalyen can start in Bradley's place. That leaves Smart to steady the second unit.

4. What we lost in experience we gained in athleticism. This team is simply bigger, longer and stronger than last years' team, especially where it counts with Brad's system - in the wings. We're not putting 5'9" IT, 6'2" Bradley and 6'6" Crowder on the floor.  This year it's 6'3" Irving, 6'7" Brown and 6'8" Hayward hitting the floor.  Amir, Zeller, KO and Jerebko give way to Morris, Baynes, Tatum, Semi and Yabu. Those guys had years of experience and no doubt we're going to miss that. But with certain 2nd teams we got blown off the court because we didn't have anyone who could create a shot nor anyone who played above the rim. That problem largely goes away this year.

The other thing to consider is minutes will be harder to come by this year (barring injuries). Guys like Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, etc. are used to playing big minutes. Reserve minutes for the guys deeper on the bench will be precious and hopefully that spurs those guys to get better faster. It's the old "two dogs, one bone" scenario.

Finally, while our reserves have little NBA time, they aren't that inexperienced. Nader is 24. Theis is 25. Semi has 3 years of college. Jabari Bird has 4. Yabu has been playing overseas professional basketball for 3 years now. Rozier is in his 3rd year in the NBA and got 1,200 minutes last year. Smart's in his 4th year. They might not be as raw as you think.

That doesn't mean we won't have growing pains. But there's some reason to be cautiously optimistic that we may not take a step back this year.

TP for a fantastic post.

I'm also happy that these wholesale changes were made during the offseason and before the start of training camp. I'm not a big fan of blockbuster trades during the season, as chemistry is hard to develop with no practice time. The new guys have also had time to hopefully get their family situation resolved and can just concentrate on basketball once training camp begins.

I believe we're just two weeks away from the first preseason game and about a month away from the season opener against Cleveland. I can't wait.

BTW, TP's to Danny, Brad, and ownership for the fireworks and back-to-back memorable offseasons. I wouldn't trade that group for anyone.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 01:49:56 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year

This piece really doesn't make any sense. IT isn't healthy this year so the Irving trade couldn't have weakened us. I suppose you mean last year's IT vs. this year's Kyrie, but Kyrie is really good and will surprise a lot of people. I also think that the stars aligned last year for IT. It's too bad for him that this wasn't his expiring year and that he didn't finish the season with a perfect hip. I see Rondo-type contracts for the rest of his career...if he can actually get healthy.

TPs to Granath and Moranis for providing more realistic frameworks for how the year should work out. Nobody is expecting us to be the Warriors, but having more star power at the top of our line-up with elite young players coming through the system should give most of us chills.
Don't see where Granath's and Moranis' views are any more realistic than mine. More optimistic, yes. Realistic, no.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 02:15:40 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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There is zero question in my mind this team is significantly more talented than last year's team.

How it gels is a good question, and I really don't expect an increase in wins.

But we were going to fall back dramatically without IT thanks to that injury. Crowder will be missed, but I am still laughing over the ridiculous notion that the Croatian Crawler was a top 10 pick - in any draft.
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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2017, 02:16:55 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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They might not win as many games as last season.  The "gel" process could take some time and hurt that but, unequivocally, I think this team is better than last year.

The scoring should be better and I actually do like depth especially since I think both Brown & Tatum are going to open up some eyes.   Rebounding and team defense make me nervous but this team is going to score points & I think they are going to pose some nightmare matchups for other teams.  I'm excited.

While last year's team faced a plateau that was rather apparent, I think this year's squad has a high ceiling.  Whether they get there in year 1 or not is another question.


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Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2017, 02:20:04 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Depends on how optimistic people are I guess.  We're better than last year.  I fully expect to make it back to the Eastern Conference Finals.  I don't expect us to beat the Cavs with a healthy IT but if he's not healthy, I give us a 50-50 chance of being in the finals. 

There is really only one concern that could derail my predictions; rebounding.  Not worried about the team gelling or defense. 

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2017, 02:22:48 PM »

Offline jambr380

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Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year

This piece really doesn't make any sense. IT isn't healthy this year so the Irving trade couldn't have weakened us. I suppose you mean last year's IT vs. this year's Kyrie, but Kyrie is really good and will surprise a lot of people. I also think that the stars aligned last year for IT. It's too bad for him that this wasn't his expiring year and that he didn't finish the season with a perfect hip. I see Rondo-type contracts for the rest of his career...if he can actually get healthy.

TPs to Granath and Moranis for providing more realistic frameworks for how the year should work out. Nobody is expecting us to be the Warriors, but having more star power at the top of our line-up with elite young players coming through the system should give most of us chills.
Don't see where Granath's and Moranis' views are any more realistic than mine. More optimistic, yes. Realistic, no.

I didn't say they were more realistic than yours, just that they had more realistic expectations, in general. Expecting our star-studded team to fail because Jerebko, Zeller, and Green aren't anchoring the deep bench anymore is a little far-fetched. It is fair to have concerns over the team immediately jelling. It is just my opinion that you may be overrating our players/team from last year and underrating what we have this year.

Depth is nice, but the NBA is a star-oriented league. We went from having zero stars this coming year (with IT injured) to now having two. We also still have Al Horford having a Horford-like effect on the game. We are going to be good - probably not win-the-championship good, but we are in far better position to compete moving forward...immediately, I believe.

You know I respect your opinion, Nick. I believe back in '07 or '08, there was a thread on who your favorite poster was and I named you and IP (IndeedProceed). I just feel that some people had/have a real emotional attachment to last year's team and are afraid to move forward with players who are ready to really compete.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2017, 02:23:37 PM »

Offline bopna

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Kyrie is no slouch...the guy is a borderline superstar for cryin out loud. IT as much as we all loved him peaked already as far as im concern. Kyrie is going to be a contender for the MVP race this year. You can all doubt that if you want but I say that he makes the Stephen Curry leap this yr like Curry was in 2014.
Add that to Hayward who was the alpha of the Jazz but with the Cs he will have no such pressure and all he will be asked is to be the man we all thought he can be...and he will so im optimistic in this department.
This team will easily beat a Cleveland team with just Lebum and Love..IT will be the key for them and if he is no where near pre injury IT then they can kiss their dreams of being in the finals again goodbye.

Re: Not as optimistic of this team as some
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2017, 02:24:07 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Third, the Irving trade weakened us for this year. If IT is healthy this year, Irving would have to upgrade his game significantly to become the super efficient high scoring guard we had last year

This piece really doesn't make any sense. IT isn't healthy this year so the Irving trade couldn't have weakened us. I suppose you mean last year's IT vs. this year's Kyrie, but Kyrie is really good and will surprise a lot of people. I also think that the stars aligned last year for IT. It's too bad for him that this wasn't his expiring year and that he didn't finish the season with a perfect hip. I see Rondo-type contracts for the rest of his career...if he can actually get healthy.

TPs to Granath and Moranis for providing more realistic frameworks for how the year should work out. Nobody is expecting us to be the Warriors, but having more star power at the top of our line-up with elite young players coming through the system should give most of us chills.
Don't see where Granath's and Moranis' views are any more realistic than mine. More optimistic, yes. Realistic, no.
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