Author Topic: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)  (Read 1080 times)

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NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« on: September 18, 2017, 10:32:04 AM »

Offline Mempitt18

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWX7sWB9km8&t=334s
Breaking down the top 3 candidates for NBA ROTY, including Jayson Tatum

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2017, 11:07:41 AM »

Offline greece666

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IMO players who will get heavy mins have the advantage.

Fultz and Lonzo will start for their teams. Most other rookies picked early in the draft play for weak teams and should see lots of mins.

Tatum will have to do twice as well to compete with them.

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2017, 11:19:01 AM »

Offline Androslav

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IMO players who will get heavy mins have the advantage.

Fultz and Lonzo will start for their teams. Most other rookies picked early in the draft play for weak teams and should see lots of mins.

Tatum will have to do twice as well to compete with them.
I agree and would add, durability.
Dennis Smith Jr. will play 28/30 minutes too. He is my favorite for ROY.
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Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2017, 11:19:43 AM »

Offline Mempitt18

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Yeah I agree with you, I do wonder if there's a case where Tatum is too impressive to keep off the floor and ends up logging 25-30 minutes like Smart as a rookie

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2017, 11:41:37 AM »

Offline saltlover

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If Tatum is able to earn 25 minutes a game on this year's team, he will be ROY.  This will be the case for three reasons:

1) His per game numbers, which matter to voters, will be respectable.
2) He'll get a bonus for team performance.
3) If he's able to get that many minutes on this Celtics team, it means his play will have been very, very good, as we know Stevens just doesn't give minutes away.

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2017, 11:45:09 AM »

Offline PhoSita

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The media will be eager to give it to Lonzo.  Dennis Smith will be given an opportunity to win some votes, too.

I suspect Fultz and Simmons will cancel each other out, especially since Embiid will get most of the spotlight (and touches) while he's healthy, but they seem to have a better chance that JT.

I think a good year for Tatum would be ~20 mpg, 8-9 points per game, a couple rebounds and an assist or two, on acceptable shooting efficiency (45-30-70).

It'd be a poor rookie class if that wins him ROY.
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Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2017, 07:57:17 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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If Tatum is able to earn 25 minutes a game on this year's team, he will be ROY.  This will be the case for three reasons:

1) His per game numbers, which matter to voters, will be respectable.
2) He'll get a bonus for team performance.
3) If he's able to get that many minutes on this Celtics team, it means his play will have been very, very good, as we know Stevens just doesn't give minutes away.

Good points.

Smart didn't get many votes his rookie year, even though Boston made the playoffs with him as their stating PG...but that has a lot to do with the fact that honestly, we didn't have anybody else to play the PG spot, so he got the gig by default and just happened to do pretty well in it.

If Tatum gets big minutes this year it'll be a very different situation.  Tatum is a 19 year old combo wing on a team's coming off a #1 seed and ECF appearance, that already has Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart on it's roster.  If he ends gets anything more than 15-20 minutes a night then he will have well and truly earned every one of them, and that's mighty impressive and worthy of consideration. 

This is compared to guys like Ball and Futlz who will be defacto starting PG's on teams who currently have nobody else who Is even CLOSE to being worthy of a starting spot at that position.

While ROY typically goes to guys who put up big numbers in big minutes, I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that situations like this (A contender getting a top 3 pick) are so incredibly rare.  In this case if Tatum puts up stellar Per-minute numbers while helping to lead the Celtics bench - I think that really does need to be given serious consideration.

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2017, 08:04:15 PM »

Offline hardlyyardley

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I think Tatum is the best tookie, but Donovan Mitchell is my sleeper for ROY

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2017, 09:54:46 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I think Tatum is the best tookie, but Donovan Mitchell is my sleeper for ROY

I think it's honestly going to be a pretty tough call between Fultz, Ball and Tatum in terms of sheer talent.

Ball is most likely to be a stat sheet stuffer since he has the ability to contribute across a range of categories - I can see him in double figures while also putting up strong assist and rebound numbers.  The past players that remind me most of Ball are:

* Ricky Rubio (10.6 PTS / 8.2 AST / 4.2 REB in his rookie year)
* Jason Kidd (11.7 PTS / 7.7 AST / 5.4 REB in his rookie year)

So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ball putting up numbers in that range.  Something like 12/8/5 I think is quite achievable for him.  Though given the team he's playing on (their youth, his probable high usage rate, run and gun style, general roster makeup, etc) I can also imagine his turnover numbers being quite high,  and his shooting percentages being quite poor, and his defence being woeful.  I can see him shooting something like 38%/33%/67% which (combined with his poor defence) potentially offsets the impressiveness of his other overall numbers. 

Fultz is a tough call.  With Fultz/Reddick/Saric/Simmons/Embiid the 76ers have a pretty solid young roster, though even with Fultz on board I think Embiid is still their Alpha scorer, and Simmons is still their most talented playmaker, with Fultz being a close second at both categories.  Because of this, I think Fultz's numbers will depends a LOT on the health of those two guys.  I feel like those three guys all NEED the ball in their hands to be most effective, and if those all stay healthy then I'm not sure how Philly is going to find a way to give all three (Simmons, Embiid and Fultz) the touches they need to perform at their best.  There is a risk that Fultz could end up getting the Kevin Love treatment (gets relegated to playing off the ball as a spot up shooter) and if that happens his production could suffer.  If either Simmons or Embiid (or both) struggles to stay healthy, then Fultz becomes the defacto #1 option for Philly and will have the ball in his hands a lot - and I expect him to put up pretty big numbers in that scenario.  20 PPG certainly isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw in 5 rebounds and 5 assists to go with it.  I think there's enough talent in Philly to get him plenty of good looks, so his percentages will probably be solid - something like 45% / 36% / 70%.  With his size (6'4"), weight (195) and length (6'9" WS) he has the same size as Marcus Smart, minus some strength, but seems significantly more athletic...so his defensive potential is high, but I think he'll be restricted by questionable defensive motor and IQ. 

Tatum obviously will have to battle for minutes and touches, so he's probably going to struggle to put up numbers competitive with those guys . I can see him putting up Per-36 minutes in the realm of 19 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists and shooting a relatively efficient 46% / 34% / 81% as a rookie.  But I think a simple lack of minutes will hold him back in this scenario given the opportunities that Ball and Fultz will get.   I think Tatum Is as good a scoring talent as Fultz is, and I think he'll be the best defender of the three due to versatility (he has the mobility and length to guard 2/3/4) and work ethic.  I think he might be better defensively then people expect by the end of the season. 

I see Fultz getting ROY in the end because he should put up good stats on a Philly team that should make a pretty significant jump in the W column, and probably makes the playoffs in the horribly weak East this year. 
« Last Edit: September 18, 2017, 10:01:23 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2017, 10:23:04 PM »

Online CelticsElite

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This draft was deep. Someone like john collins or Justin Jackson could easily surprise and be the best performing rookie, especially those rookies stuck on treadmill losing teams.

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #10 on: September 19, 2017, 09:32:10 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
My Top 5
Trade targets.      Draft.                     FAs
1. Davis              1.Fultz              1. Griffin*
2. Cousins          2. Tatum          2. Hayward
3. Butler              3. Jackson       3. Millsap
4. George            4. Ball               4. Lowry
5. Favors             5. Isaac            5. Gali

Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #11 on: September 19, 2017, 09:36:21 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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The favorites:

Ball
Simmons

Next tier:

Tatum
Fultz

Dark horses:

Smith
Fox


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Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #12 on: September 19, 2017, 09:46:31 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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The favorites:

Ball
Simmons

Next tier:

Tatum
Fultz

Dark horses:

Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.

Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
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Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2017, 09:55:02 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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The favorites:

Ball
Simmons

Next tier:

Tatum
Fultz

Dark horses:

Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.

Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.

Well, you know me, the eternal optimist.

I think Fultz will lose votes to Simmons. Tatum has an uphill battle for playing time, but he'll get plenty of exposure.


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Re: NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates (Jayson Tatum?)
« Reply #14 on: September 19, 2017, 10:04:20 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I'd say odds look like:

Simmons/Smith/Ball/Fultz

This is a stats driven award. It'll come down to playing time and usage.

Other guys who could be in the conversation: Bogdanovic, Ntilikina, Marrkenen, Tatum, Jackson

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