Poll

Which would you have thought was more unlikely

Indians winning 21 straight games and counting
2 (33.3%)
Dodgers losing 11 straight games
4 (66.7%)

Total Members Voted: 6

Author Topic: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)  (Read 309 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Moranis

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16503
  • Tommy Points: 783
Being in the greater Cleveland area, the Indians are all the rage right now.  Today they set the AL Record by winning their 21st consecutive game.  They can pass the 1935 Cubs tomorrow against the Royals. 

Until the Dodgers won last night they had lost 11 straight games.  Before that losing streak they were 92-41 (or 69%), which would have put them behind only the 2001 Mariners and 1998 Yankees all time for a 162 game season had they finished out the season on that pace.  The Dodgers still have the best record in baseball by 3.5 games over the Indians and have a 10 game lead in their division on the 3rd best team in the NL.  Even with losing 11 straight games.

So statistically I get that winning 21 games is more unlikely than losing 11 games just because 21 is bigger than 11, but take that out of it and think of it this way.  If a month ago I would have told you the Indians would win at least 21 straight games and the Dodgers would lose 11 straight games, which would you have felt was the least probable.  And vote that way.
Ohio State 2014/15 National Champions.

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32496
  • Tommy Points: -28032
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Offline Moranis

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16503
  • Tommy Points: 783
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.
I totally get that and teams lose 11 games in a row frequently enough that it isn't rare, but the best team in baseball losing 11 games in a row is pretty crazy.  I'm sure there is some sort of model that accounts for the team, schedule, etc. that probably could have realistically come up with a probability for each (outside of the standard statistics that every game is a 50% chance), but that far exceeds my knowledge. 
Ohio State 2014/15 National Champions.

Offline Dino Pitino

  • NCE
  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1496
  • Tommy Points: 193
Quote
If a month ago I would have told you the Indians would win at least 21 straight games and the Dodgers would lose 11 straight games, which would you have felt was the least probable.  And vote that way.

Dodgers. 17 losses in 18 games? No freaking way.
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Offline Bucketgetter

  • Kyrie Irving
  • Posts: 822
  • Tommy Points: 153
Dodgers. Both teams are great, so a huge winning streak isnít totally out of this world. But for a team that was threatening the MLB all time win record to lose 11 straight, and 17 out of 18? Crazy.

Would it be more unlikely that the Cavaliers win 21 straight or the Celtics lose 11 straight (or 17 out of 18)? Iíd definitely say the Celtics losing, really good teams arenít suppose to lose that much.
CB Draft
Sacramento Kings
Coach: Dave Joerger
Roster: Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Marvin Williams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, John Henson, Boban Marjanovic, Rodney Stuckey, Wade Baldwin IV, Taurean Prince, Andrew Nicholson, D.J. Augustin, Jeff Withey, James Jones, Charlie Villanueva, Jordan Adams

Offline Bucketgetter

  • Kyrie Irving
  • Posts: 822
  • Tommy Points: 153
Indians all the way. I wouldn't have predicted either, but 21 in a row is ridiculous in any sport. With the Dodgers, I never thought that we were looking at a historically great team, so some sort of regression was probable.
I totally get that and teams lose 11 games in a row frequently enough that it isn't rare, but the best team in baseball losing 11 games in a row is pretty crazy.  I'm sure there is some sort of model that accounts for the team, schedule, etc. that probably could have realistically come up with a probability for each (outside of the standard statistics that every game is a 50% chance), but that far exceeds my knowledge.
I mean you could look at the betting lines. Dodgers were huge favorites in so many of those games, especially the ones with Darvish, Hill, or Kershaw pitching. I know when Kershaw faced the Rockies they were like a -280 favorite and lost.
CB Draft
Sacramento Kings
Coach: Dave Joerger
Roster: Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Marvin Williams, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, John Henson, Boban Marjanovic, Rodney Stuckey, Wade Baldwin IV, Taurean Prince, Andrew Nicholson, D.J. Augustin, Jeff Withey, James Jones, Charlie Villanueva, Jordan Adams

Offline Phantom255x

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5479
  • Tommy Points: 419
  • On To Banner 18!
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.

Offline kraidstar

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1680
  • Tommy Points: 468
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.

Agree. Houston is still relatively unproven, whereas Cleveland came within one run of winning a championship last year.

They look like a team that has "it." AKA heart.

And Kluber in the playoffs reminds me a lot of Bumgarner a few years ago. He's so good he could win a team two or three games in a series on his own.

They aren't a team I want to tangle with.

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32496
  • Tommy Points: -28032
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
I take pride in knowing that the last team to beat CLE was the Red Sox (August 23)  8)

But yeah I'm GLAD that if the Sox do make the playoffs, they will likely play Houston in ALDS and not Cleveland. Houston is tough too but not as tough as Cleveland right now... not even close.  :o

But to answer your question, a team with likely the best record in all of MLB having a stretch where they lost 17 of 18 straight games is really, really surprising. Maybe it's just me.

A team winning 21 games in a row is really surprising, too. So surprising that it's been done zero times previously in the history of the American League, and once (or twice if you count ties) in the history of the professional sport.



Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9337
  • Tommy Points: 2035
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2017, 07:10:31 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7181
  • Tommy Points: 740
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.
eh. not really.

If we use ****ty number and take the Dodgers win % pre-losing streak as their win probability and the Indians win% pre-winning streak as their win probability.

You end up with (.585)^21 vs. (1-.694)^11
comes out to 1.3E-5 vs. 2.2E-6
or
.0013% for the Tribe and .00022% for the Dodgers

Obviously those win probabilities are kinda bogus but they arent entirely unreasonable.
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2017, 07:24:24 PM »

Offline byennie

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1720
  • Tommy Points: 227
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It depends on how you model it, really. If you assume a "hot" team is playing .700 ball, and a cold one is play .500, it comes out roughly the same. About 1 in 2000, or once every 10-20 years worth of games.

If you model them based on their winning percentages going in, you have it backwards. 1 in 500,000 chance of the Dodgers losing 11 in a row. 1 in 250,000 for the Indians.

I think the former is more realistic, and it makes sense for it to happen every ~20 years with a few teams per year capable of it.

Interesting corollary: a .700 team is more likely to sweep a 3 game series than lose game 1.
---
Lucky17 Yahoo! Points League: Jackalopes
Offseason Tracker

Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2017, 07:27:03 PM »

Offline Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23131
  • Tommy Points: 955
  • What a Pub Should Be
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.  6 teams not including CLE.   And 3 of them were in the 1880s.  You just don't see this type of thing

EDIT:  Maybe not that wide or simple.   ;)
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 07:37:44 PM by Donoghus »


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2017, 07:27:56 PM »

Online saltlover

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9337
  • Tommy Points: 2035
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.
eh. not really.

If we use ****ty number and take the Dodgers win % pre-losing streak as their win probability and the Indians win% pre-winning streak as their win probability.

You end up with (.585)^21 vs. (1-.694)^11
comes out to 1.3E-5 vs. 2.2E-6
or
.0013% for the Tribe and .00022% for the Dodgers

Obviously those win probabilities are kinda bogus but they arent entirely unreasonable.

I literally posted what I did immediately after having gotten on a train going the wrong direction on my daily commute.  And it took me four stops to realize it. I don't know what I did wrong in my mental math, but suffice it to say I'm not firing on all cylinders this evening.

Re: More Unlikely - Indians (winning 21 straight) or Dodgers (losing 11 straight)
« Reply #14 on: September 13, 2017, 07:29:42 PM »

Offline byennie

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1720
  • Tommy Points: 227
Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row.  Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

It's really this simple.   

CLE by a wide margin here.

Right, except for actual math =).
---
Lucky17 Yahoo! Points League: Jackalopes
Offseason Tracker