« **Reply #13 on:** September 13, 2017, 07:27:56 PM »

Cleveland was exponentially less likely to win 21 in a row than the Dodgers lose 11 in a row. Simple probability theory tells us it's not even close.

eh. not really.

If we use ****ty number and take the Dodgers win % pre-losing streak as their win probability and the Indians win% pre-winning streak as their win probability.

You end up with (.585)^21 vs. (1-.694)^11

comes out to 1.3E-5 vs. 2.2E-6

or

.0013% for the Tribe and .00022% for the Dodgers

Obviously those win probabilities are kinda bogus but they arent entirely unreasonable.

I literally posted what I did immediately after having gotten on a train going the wrong direction on my daily commute. And it took me four stops to realize it. I don't know what I did wrong in my mental math, but suffice it to say I'm not firing on all cylinders this evening.

Logged

2018 Mock Trade Deadline:

Pelicans: Davis, Holiday, Vucevic, Rondo, Clarkson, Nance, Hart, Moore, Ilyasova, Ajinca, Hill, Miller, Jackson, Dotson, Dakari Johnson

Warriors: KD, Steph, Klay, Draymomd, Iggy, Zaza, Young, Livingston, McGee, West, McCaw, Jones, Casspi, Jones, Looney

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