Author Topic: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so  (Read 1504 times)

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Online CelticsElite

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« Last Edit: September 10, 2017, 02:51:42 PM by CelticsElite »

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. in 10-12 days
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2017, 11:45:42 AM »

Online CelticsElite

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new model shows it making a loop

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. in a week
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2017, 12:35:37 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Ugh.  I hope it exits that loop early.

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. in a week
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2017, 02:50:46 PM »

Online CelticsElite

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Ugh.  I hope it exits that loop early.
showing a Major hit to Boston/ New England on latest Gfs computer model. 
This is one of the hurricane Bob/Carol/ Edna type tracks. Now a day would be a very costly storm. .

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. in a week
« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2017, 03:20:11 PM »

Offline Sketch5

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Ugh.  I hope it exits that loop early.
showing a Major hit to Boston/ New England on latest Gfs computer model. 
This is one of the hurricane Bob/Carol/ Edna type tracks. Now a day would be a very costly storm. .

Ugh, I hope not. We have a charity hike for Hemophilia up MT Batty off the coast of Maine on Sat. I mean we've already raised the money and thats the important thing, but it's a fun event and one of the last few times we get to do fun things out doors before winter comes and we don't see daylight for 5 months . LOL

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2017, 03:28:07 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2017, 05:39:33 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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This a joke,  but no way Pres. Trump lets a Hurricane named Jose in the US.  JK!

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2017, 07:27:20 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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This a joke,  but no way Pres. Trump lets a Hurricane named Jose in the US.  JK!

Trump would probably deport 'Jose' :laugh:

Jokes aside though this sucks. Harvey, Irma, now Jose about to wreak havoc on the U.S? Geez...  :(

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2017, 07:51:25 PM »

Offline mef730

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.

Mike
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Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2017, 01:42:15 PM »

Offline D Dub

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.

Mike

Latest model run has it eventually cut up through Maryland instead. 

Won't know for sure until 3-4 days out, but Jose seems likely for a landfall somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod tues into wed next week.   

Hopefully it spins out, but with Irma the models overplayed the spin out to sea so I'm skeptical.

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2017, 01:45:01 PM »

Offline mef730

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.

Mike

Latest model run has it eventually cut up through Maryland instead. 

Won't know for sure until 3-4 days out, but Jose seems likely for a landfall somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod tues into wed next week.   

Hopefully it spins out, but with Irma the models overplayed the spin out to sea so I'm skeptical.

Call me cynical, but I've noticed that the models tend to reflect the spin that will generate the most clicks and views.

Mike
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Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2017, 02:06:01 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.

Mike

Latest model run has it eventually cut up through Maryland instead. 

Won't know for sure until 3-4 days out, but Jose seems likely for a landfall somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod tues into wed next week.   

Hopefully it spins out, but with Irma the models overplayed the spin out to sea so I'm skeptical.

Call me cynical, but I've noticed that the models tend to reflect the spin that will generate the most clicks and views.

Mike

It's not the models, it's the reporters.  From a recent forecast regarding Jose:

Quote
Models show a wide range of possibilities, all the way from South Carolina to Newfoundland, or even out to sea. Of 20 runs of the GFS model ensemble forecast Monday morning, 25% resulted in an eventual landfall in the U.S., and another 25% in Canada. The rest kept the storm out to sea.
For the European weather model, a recurvature out to sea or a landfall in New England or Canada were the preferred solutions.

So, it could go out to sea.  Or it could strike, and if it does, it's most likely the Northeast US or Canada (which makes sense when you think about the shape of the coast, and that the storm is going to curve, but the question is how much?)

Again, models perform much better the closer in time we're at, and since landfall would be at least 7 days away, it's high uncertainty.  Reporting, of course, picks the run of the model that sells the most.

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2017, 02:22:24 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Ya, I could be wrong but I think I read somewhere that the European model has done a better job lately. All in all still to early to tell where, or how strong the storm will be.

Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2017, 02:22:55 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Luckily nine days out is an eternity in forecast time.

Nine days left to build a wall to keep Jose out.

Mike

Latest model run has it eventually cut up through Maryland instead. 

Won't know for sure until 3-4 days out, but Jose seems likely for a landfall somewhere between Hatteras and Cape Cod tues into wed next week.   

Hopefully it spins out, but with Irma the models overplayed the spin out to sea so I'm skeptical.
Well, the more distance there is to travel to impact, the more opportunity for forecasting error to accumulate. We'll just have to wait and see when it gets closer.
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Re: category 4 Hurricane Jose could be headed to U.S. (boston?) in a week or so
« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2017, 02:42:39 PM »

Offline Moranis

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it is down to a category 2 storm at the moment though do expect it to intensify again.
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