Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?

[Donoghus]

Apparently it will get voted on Sept. 28th. Would start with 2019 draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20710936/nba-board-governors-vote-draft-lottery-reform-sept-28?sf114342142=1

[Moranis]

Apparently it will get voted on Sept. 28th. Would start with 2019 draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20710936/nba-board-governors-vote-draft-lottery-reform-sept-28?sf114342142=1

I hope it fails.  Absolutely terrible idea. 

[fairweatherfan]

Apparently it will get voted on Sept. 28th. Would start with 2019 draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20710936/nba-board-governors-vote-draft-lottery-reform-sept-28?sf114342142=1

So it looks like the main points are:

- equal odds for the three worst teams, with smaller increases in probability as teams fall in the standings

- drawing for the top 4 spots instead of the top 3.

I like smoothing the odds overall to discourage tanking, as long as the incentive to drop out of the playoffs is still very low. And I'd kind like them to draw for all 14 spots too, though I understand that'd be a huge pain with the current system with a need for constant redraws til a team that hasn't come up is chosen.  Still, I'm onboard with the changes here.  But I doubt the small market teams will be.

[saltlover]

Apparently it will get voted on Sept. 28th. Would start with 2019 draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20710936/nba-board-governors-vote-draft-lottery-reform-sept-28?sf114342142=1

So it looks like the main points are:

- equal odds for the three worse teams, with smaller increases in probability as teams fall in the standings

- drawing for the top 4 spots instead of the top 3.

I like smoothing the odds overall to discourage tanking, as long as the incentive to drop out of the playoffs is still very low. And I'd kind like them to draw for all 14 spots too, though I understand that'd be a huge pain with the current system with a need for constant redraws til a team that hasn't come up is chosen.  Still, I'm onboard with the changes here.  But I doubt the small market teams will be.

I'm not a big fan of the changes.  That said, it's probably good for the Sacramento pick.  Slightly higher chance that it ends up #1, which is not good, but much greater chance it winds up 2-4.

[Big333223]

The changes won't affect tanking. As long as there is an incentive to be bad, teams who are clearly outside the playoff hunt will tank. If being a bottom 3 teams gives you better odds at the #1 then non playoff teams have incentive to be as bad as possible.