Author Topic: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?  (Read 2747 times)

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Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #30 on: September 08, 2017, 07:17:17 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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>If passed, no changes to the NBA lottery would be instituted until the 2019 draft, league sources said.

Even 2019 is doubtful. If they make a change (which I doubt), I can't see them making it until all current traded picks have been conveyed (which would be like 2021 or 2022)

What do they really care about conveyed picks? Those picks don't encourage tanking (if anything, they do just the opposite), and by reforming it, gives other potential tankers reason to not tank.

I think there needs to be a better system. What that is, I don't know.

I think it'll be terrible for fringe playoff teams to consistently get the top players while the bad teams - and let's face it, there are plenty - get mediocre picks. Good teams don't tank. Bad teams tank to jostle into lottery position against other bad (and perhaps worse) teams. And then you can see teams in the cusp of the playoffs tanking out of them. Why risk potentially getting a great player early in the draft for 2 extra home games?

Because teams have already traded away/traded for picks under the current rules. Changing the rules around the lottery would change the value if those picks. If you're the 76ers and a lottery change greatly decreases the chance of the LAL pick being #1, you would be upset. For the Celtics, it would be the opposite, with the team being upset if the odds were increased for the #1 pick.  For Memphis, I can't imagine they would have traded what could be an unprotected pick fir Jeff Green if they knew that the league could change lottery odds to potentially 1. Make it less likely to convey until protections are gone AND 2. Make it more likely that the unprotected pick conveys in the top 3 or 5.

There's just too many teams that have either traded away or traded picks under the current rules. Team owners aren't going to be vote to put themselves in a worse situation because of fair deals they already made just to try and punish some tanking teams
I'm bitter.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #31 on: September 08, 2017, 08:16:47 AM »

Offline Moranis

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i want to see reform that makes consecutive tanking less likely method of rebuilding. If you are in the top three , you can not be in the top three consecutive years or something simular to keep repeats of the Philadelphia childish experiment.  .....or Cavs getting the first pick like three years in a row or close.

I dread end of season as teams jockey to loose on purpose .  I loose interest
The Cavs were 19-63 preceding Irving.  That was the first season post-James.  The Wolves were the worst team in the league that year, the Cavs were 2nd worst, but their pick ended up 4th (Thompson).  They landed Irving with the unprotected Clippers pick.  The Clippers were 32-50 and the 8th worst team in the league.  The following season the Cavs were 21-45 tied with New Orleans as the 3rd worst.  They picked 4th.  The next season they were 24-58 and the 3rd worst team.  They ended up winning the lottery and wasted the pick on Bennett.  The following season and last before James came back, the Cavs improved to 33-49 and were the 9th worst team.  They won the lottery to get Wiggins. 

So the Cavs ended up with the 1st pick in 3 of 4 drafts, but landed that pick with the 8th worst, 3rd worst, and 9th worst record.  They had 2 other top 5 picks, both #4, which they landed by finishing 2nd worst and tied for 3rd worst. 

The Cavs are the perfect example of why the lottery system works just fine. 
Ohio State 2014/15 National Champions.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #32 on: September 08, 2017, 08:29:45 AM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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I personally wish we'd get rid of the lottery so there's no chance of a decent team ending up getting a pick that an actual bad team might deserve.

the NBA has put such a premium on "superstars" that some teams only chance of acquiring a superstar is to draft one.

the lottery is a farce to begin with, the NBA should just come out and say "we want these particular teams to suck forever and these other teams to be at the top forever". instead of making us think the lottery actually means anything.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #33 on: September 08, 2017, 09:53:10 AM »

Offline Big333223

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I find this whole thing silly. The lottery doesn't work. For as long as the odds are tied to record there will be incentive for teams to tank. Since there is no benefit to having a better record once your team is outside the top 8, the only incentive bad teams (non playoff teams) have is to be worse. That will be true no matter how small the margin of increase gets.

Even creating even odds for all 14 lottery teams would likely just create tanking among teams around the 7-10 range. If a team is #9 in the standings and has no shot at a title but knows they have as good of a shot at a franchise superstar as everyone else, aren't they going to do what they can to ensure they stay out of the playoffs?

Instituting the lottery didn't discourage tanking because even though margins changed the incentives didn't. As far as I can tell, his will remain true with the proposed changes.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #34 on: September 08, 2017, 09:56:17 AM »

Offline Granath

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I have always been in favor of a lottery flip where the best team in the lotto gets the 1st pick. So team 14 gets the #1 pick and the worst team gets 14. Then the teams that just miss the playoffs get the top picks. That gives teams something to play for and punishes "Tanking" teams. The extra talent should push the end of the lotto teams up into the playoffs after a year or two. No more getting stuck in the middle. It rewards the teams that are trying to put together playoff teams.

It doesn't punish tanking teams. It just shifts who and when they tank. In your proposal, teams lined up for the #8 playoff spot trying to tank. So we would have had the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Pacers, Bulls and Heat all trying to throw certain games at times to not get that #8 spot. Because those teams knew they didn't have a prayer of winning it all.

To me, having teams purposely losing to *just* avoid making the playoffs in order to get a better draft pick is far more damaging than the worst ones losing to get better lottery odds.

-----------------

We've danced this dance before. There is NO system that doesn't cause one of the following:

(A) Hopelessness
(B) Tanking

For instance, In the "wheel" scenario you're truly screwed if you hit a weak lottery (2013). There's simply not a franchise player. You don't get a chance at that #1 for the next 30 years and you won't get another moderately high pick for 3-5 years. Having a franchise with little to no hope of improvement is not good for the NBA. See: Nets. If every team had the same chances, you'd see much the same thing - some bad team would have a run of bad luck and get 4-5 years in a row with picks in the 20s. It's a mathematical certainty and fans of that franchise aren't going to want to see that team.

So without a truly random system (like the wheel), then there's always going to be tanking. People might be tanking for #1. In the new proposed NBA system, teams from 5-8 will have great incentive to tank to get to #5 where the lottery odds go up significantly. A reverse-odds lottery just has teams tank out of the #8 playoff spot. 

The only change I might make to the current system is that a team can only earn a top 3 pick 2 out of every 5 years (this precludes trades for picks). If you have already hit that mark and you get into the top 3 again, you automatically get bumped to #5. It won't preclude tanking but it will stop a 76er type scenario where they're tanking to get 3-4 top 3 picks in consecutive years.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 10:06:31 AM by Granath »
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #35 on: September 08, 2017, 10:18:58 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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https://twitter.com/ChrisMannixYS/status/905890830749241344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Fnba%2F
Knew small market teams would fight this, said so earlier. There's too many small markets that would vote against this to make it work. Sadly, the worst tankers over the last 5-10 years or so have been large market teams.

And forget the tourney system. The NBA Players Association would never allow that.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2017, 10:34:29 AM by nickagneta »

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #36 on: September 08, 2017, 11:15:28 AM »

Offline BaronV

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Another idea might be to separate the idea of draft position (an annual 'reward' to help bad teams get better), and quality of product (how is the team doing longer term?).  If a team has one bad season, it makes sense for them to be at the top of the lottery, score a good player, and get better.  Could that system be tweaked?  Sure, and a lot of the proposed ideas make some sense. 

However, a bigger issue is having teams in the league like Sacramento or Philly that have been bad for years.  It's one thing to have a bad roster, a bad coach, or bad luck through injuries for a season.  It's another thing to have ownership that isn't investing in its team, making consistently poor decisions, and not putting a team on the floor that fans want to see.  That costs the league money.  .  I'd love to see sports leagues force structural changes to teams that consistently underperform.  For example, if your team finishes in last place or with a bottom 5 record for X years in a row, doesn't make the playoffs at least once in X years, etc. the owner is forced to give up their majority stake in the team by the league, or is otherwise sanctioned in a way that would intent them to invest in better players and better front office staff.  Not sure if owners would vote that in, but they might, as it would benefit most of them to have a better overall product across the league. 

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #37 on: September 08, 2017, 11:27:40 AM »

Offline gift

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I won't be surprised to see the lottery reform fail. While I believe everyone in the league dislikes tanking, the alternatives are fully of uncertainty (even if they would be successful) and uncertainty is not likely to drive reform.

In honesty, I like the wheel idea the best but you definitely have to change your mindset about how teams are built in order to accept it as a fair solution. Nothing is perfect, though.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #38 on: September 08, 2017, 12:25:41 PM »

Offline footey

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I have always been in favor of a lottery flip where the best team in the lotto gets the 1st pick. So team 14 gets the #1 pick and the worst team gets 14. Then the teams that just miss the playoffs get the top picks. That gives teams something to play for and punishes "Tanking" teams. The extra talent should push the end of the lotto teams up into the playoffs after a year or two. No more getting stuck in the middle. It rewards the teams that are trying to put together playoff teams.

It doesn't punish tanking teams. It just shifts who and when they tank. In your proposal, teams lined up for the #8 playoff spot trying to tank. So we would have had the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Pacers, Bulls and Heat all trying to throw certain games at times to not get that #8 spot. Because those teams knew they didn't have a prayer of winning it all.

To me, having teams purposely losing to *just* avoid making the playoffs in order to get a better draft pick is far more damaging than the worst ones losing to get better lottery odds.

-----------------

We've danced this dance before. There is NO system that doesn't cause one of the following:

(A) Hopelessness
(B) Tanking

For instance, In the "wheel" scenario you're truly screwed if you hit a weak lottery (2013). There's simply not a franchise player. You don't get a chance at that #1 for the next 30 years and you won't get another moderately high pick for 3-5 years. Having a franchise with little to no hope of improvement is not good for the NBA. See: Nets. If every team had the same chances, you'd see much the same thing - some bad team would have a run of bad luck and get 4-5 years in a row with picks in the 20s. It's a mathematical certainty and fans of that franchise aren't going to want to see that team.

So without a truly random system (like the wheel), then there's always going to be tanking. People might be tanking for #1. In the new proposed NBA system, teams from 5-8 will have great incentive to tank to get to #5 where the lottery odds go up significantly. A reverse-odds lottery just has teams tank out of the #8 playoff spot. 

The only change I might make to the current system is that a team can only earn a top 3 pick 2 out of every 5 years (this precludes trades for picks). If you have already hit that mark and you get into the top 3 again, you automatically get bumped to #5. It won't preclude tanking but it will stop a 76er type scenario where they're tanking to get 3-4 top 3 picks in consecutive years.

Yeah, you would get stuck with the Greek Freak as your pick, LOL.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I know he wasn't projected top pick. Just so ironic you use that example.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #39 on: September 08, 2017, 12:27:59 PM »

Offline footey

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i want to see reform that makes consecutive tanking less likely method of rebuilding. If you are in the top three , you can not be in the top three consecutive years or something simular to keep repeats of the Philadelphia childish experiment.  .....or Cavs getting the first pick like three years in a row or close.

I dread end of season as teams jockey to loose on purpose .  I loose interest
The Cavs were 19-63 preceding Irving.  That was the first season post-James.  The Wolves were the worst team in the league that year, the Cavs were 2nd worst, but their pick ended up 4th (Thompson).  They landed Irving with the unprotected Clippers pick.  The Clippers were 32-50 and the 8th worst team in the league.  The following season the Cavs were 21-45 tied with New Orleans as the 3rd worst.  They picked 4th.  The next season they were 24-58 and the 3rd worst team.  They ended up winning the lottery and wasted the pick on Bennett.  The following season and last before James came back, the Cavs improved to 33-49 and were the 9th worst team.  They won the lottery to get Wiggins. 

So the Cavs ended up with the 1st pick in 3 of 4 drafts, but landed that pick with the 8th worst, 3rd worst, and 9th worst record.  They had 2 other top 5 picks, both #4, which they landed by finishing 2nd worst and tied for 3rd worst. 

The Cavs are the perfect example of why the lottery system works just fine.

Yes, but the Sixers are the reason why it should be fixed. 

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #40 on: September 08, 2017, 12:40:01 PM »

Offline Moranis

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i want to see reform that makes consecutive tanking less likely method of rebuilding. If you are in the top three , you can not be in the top three consecutive years or something simular to keep repeats of the Philadelphia childish experiment.  .....or Cavs getting the first pick like three years in a row or close.

I dread end of season as teams jockey to loose on purpose .  I loose interest
The Cavs were 19-63 preceding Irving.  That was the first season post-James.  The Wolves were the worst team in the league that year, the Cavs were 2nd worst, but their pick ended up 4th (Thompson).  They landed Irving with the unprotected Clippers pick.  The Clippers were 32-50 and the 8th worst team in the league.  The following season the Cavs were 21-45 tied with New Orleans as the 3rd worst.  They picked 4th.  The next season they were 24-58 and the 3rd worst team.  They ended up winning the lottery and wasted the pick on Bennett.  The following season and last before James came back, the Cavs improved to 33-49 and were the 9th worst team.  They won the lottery to get Wiggins. 

So the Cavs ended up with the 1st pick in 3 of 4 drafts, but landed that pick with the 8th worst, 3rd worst, and 9th worst record.  They had 2 other top 5 picks, both #4, which they landed by finishing 2nd worst and tied for 3rd worst. 

The Cavs are the perfect example of why the lottery system works just fine.

Yes, but the Sixers are the reason why it should be fixed.
The Sixers were only the worst team 1 time (and that was the only year they got the 1st pick) and there have been a lot of other teams with far worse stretches then the Sixers had littered throughout league history.  The only problem with the lottery system is people believing there is something wrong with it or it doesn't work and needs to be fixed.
Ohio State 2014/15 National Champions.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #41 on: September 08, 2017, 01:24:09 PM »

Offline ederson

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Determine the tv revenue relative to the reg season record

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #42 on: September 08, 2017, 02:51:09 PM »

Offline Granath

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I have always been in favor of a lottery flip where the best team in the lotto gets the 1st pick. So team 14 gets the #1 pick and the worst team gets 14. Then the teams that just miss the playoffs get the top picks. That gives teams something to play for and punishes "Tanking" teams. The extra talent should push the end of the lotto teams up into the playoffs after a year or two. No more getting stuck in the middle. It rewards the teams that are trying to put together playoff teams.

It doesn't punish tanking teams. It just shifts who and when they tank. In your proposal, teams lined up for the #8 playoff spot trying to tank. So we would have had the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Pacers, Bulls and Heat all trying to throw certain games at times to not get that #8 spot. Because those teams knew they didn't have a prayer of winning it all.

To me, having teams purposely losing to *just* avoid making the playoffs in order to get a better draft pick is far more damaging than the worst ones losing to get better lottery odds.

-----------------

We've danced this dance before. There is NO system that doesn't cause one of the following:

(A) Hopelessness
(B) Tanking

For instance, In the "wheel" scenario you're truly screwed if you hit a weak lottery (2013). There's simply not a franchise player. You don't get a chance at that #1 for the next 30 years and you won't get another moderately high pick for 3-5 years. Having a franchise with little to no hope of improvement is not good for the NBA. See: Nets. If every team had the same chances, you'd see much the same thing - some bad team would have a run of bad luck and get 4-5 years in a row with picks in the 20s. It's a mathematical certainty and fans of that franchise aren't going to want to see that team.

So without a truly random system (like the wheel), then there's always going to be tanking. People might be tanking for #1. In the new proposed NBA system, teams from 5-8 will have great incentive to tank to get to #5 where the lottery odds go up significantly. A reverse-odds lottery just has teams tank out of the #8 playoff spot. 

The only change I might make to the current system is that a team can only earn a top 3 pick 2 out of every 5 years (this precludes trades for picks). If you have already hit that mark and you get into the top 3 again, you automatically get bumped to #5. It won't preclude tanking but it will stop a 76er type scenario where they're tanking to get 3-4 top 3 picks in consecutive years.

Yeah, you would get stuck with the Greek Freak as your pick, LOL.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I know he wasn't projected top pick. Just so ironic you use that example.

It's not ironic at all. There's always someone who is going to be a surprise later down in the draft. But while there's always someone, the odds suck and can't be counted on. When you get a guy outside the lottery who makes an All Star team then that's like manna from heaven. You count your lucky stars and go on. But it's not a strategy to build a team around.

From that years' draft, as you said he wasn't a projected top pick and none of the guys in the top 10 are game changers. So using "the wheel" system this scenario would be encountered - a team would eventually be bad, be lucky enough to get a top pick that year and then comes away with nothing. That team is going to have an exceptionally hard time for the next decade or two unless they get lucky. That's not good for the NBA which is why there won't be a wheel.

Then there's the opposite scenario. A team like GSW gets the #1 because it's their turn at the wheel. While dynasties help sell tickets, a woefully imbalanced league is again not good for business.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #43 on: September 08, 2017, 02:55:03 PM »

Offline Granath

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So the good get richer and the bad get poorer. That sounds like a perfect feedback cycle to turn the NBA into permanently a two tiered league.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Lottery Reform in Works: How will this impact our LA/SAC Pick?
« Reply #44 on: September 08, 2017, 03:36:54 PM »

Offline ederson

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So the good get richer and the bad get poorer. That sounds like a perfect feedback cycle to turn the NBA into permanently a two tiered league.

The same could be said about the lottery changes suggested so far.
I agree with Moranis though. The current lottery system is fair and should remain as it is. So imho the only think that could make teams rethink about tanking is money.But you have a point. You could do it for the lottery teams.