Author Topic: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?  (Read 3820 times)

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Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #60 on: September 03, 2017, 04:03:10 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #61 on: September 03, 2017, 04:16:24 PM »

Offline Kuberski33

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Unless his shot improves this season he may go the way of the do-do, err I mean KO

Why does his shot have to improve. Maybe more consistency, But KO could shoot and he didn't get resigned. People don't value Smarts D. especially now AB is gone.

He also hits shots when needed more  often than not. But he's got that junkyard dog, "IT" factor  that you need on a championship team. We have enough offensive weapons now with adding Irving(a bit of a wash with IT lgone)Hayward, Morris, and Tatum, and Hopefully Brown improves.

He's also improved his ball handling quite a bit from season 1. And can run the point fairly well when IT was out last season.
His shot is a liability in today's NBA. If he could shoot he'd be an all star - but right now he's not - he's a very good rotation player who most likely will fit real well with this team because he'll be out there at crunch time with 2 and possibly 3 guys who can create their own shot. 

He's worth Olynyk money and if you can get him for that I'd probably do it.  That said to me he'd only be in demand next summer if there's another team with a chance to win the title that has the cap room to sign him.  4 yrs/$50 mill is probably still there for the C's if they do wait.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #62 on: September 03, 2017, 04:29:39 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

Preach!!
"Young man, you have the question backwards." - Bill Russell

"My guess is that an aggregator of expert opinions would be close in terms of results to that of Danny." - Roy H.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #63 on: September 03, 2017, 04:49:27 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

Boom goes the dynamite. Also in this discussion we should consider how many minutes per game each plays. Smarts minutes also come on the defending #1 seed in the East vs Dallas' lottery team.

That's another way to contrast (not just compare) two defensive minded players drafted #6 one year apart.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #64 on: September 03, 2017, 05:17:37 PM »

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Marcus+Smart&player_id1_select=Marcus+Smart&y1=2017&player_id1=smartma01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Nerlens+Noel&player_id2_select=Nerlens+Noel&y2=2017&player_id2=noelne01&idx=players

Here is their comparisons from last year. I don't have deflection stats for Noel but I am guessing they are high.

Per 100 posessions and Per 36 Minutes Nerlens scores more and creates more turnovers. His Win Shares were higher than Smarts even though he played for bad teams and played less games. Noel's win shares per 48 monutes were 3 times higher than Smart's.

Noel simply was a much more impactful player than Smart. Simply checking their advanced stats, per36 stats and per 100 possesions stats prove that.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #65 on: September 03, 2017, 05:40:37 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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Not debating those numbers but in terms of importance to their teams why did Noel play only 21mpg while Smart played 30?

If we're looking at who was more impactful for their team certainly playing time should be a consideration, which goes beyond advanced metrics.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #66 on: September 03, 2017, 06:08:32 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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I have no idea...

But a guarantee you Danny know s exactly what he is gonna do .


So why worry.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #67 on: September 03, 2017, 06:31:39 PM »

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Not debating those numbers but in terms of importance to their teams why did Noel play only 21mpg while Smart played 30?

If we're looking at who was more impactful for their team certainly playing time should be a consideration, which goes beyond advanced metrics.
Well there is a variety of reasons why he played less MPG but when looking at impact I would look at winshares. Noel playing less minutes and less games had more total winshares than Smart.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #68 on: September 03, 2017, 07:36:06 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Do Celtics have right to match?  If so just wait and see.  Smart might finally make the leap or he might just remain a defense only player.  We need to know if smart is only the next tony Allen in a pg body or if he can be a legit 2 way star.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 07:44:45 PM by vjcsmoke »

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #69 on: September 03, 2017, 10:59:38 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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Do Celtics have right to match?  If so just wait and see.  Smart might finally make the leap or he might just remain a defense only player.  We need to know if smart is only the next tony Allen in a pg body or if he can be a legit 2 way star.

Sure you can just wait and see. And then some stupid team offers him 4/70 and we just can't/won't match when we could have locked him up at 4/50 if we had just offered it now (theoretically). That's why you don't always just "wait and see."  It's a risk to wait.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #70 on: September 03, 2017, 11:13:26 PM »

Offline mctyson

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262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

Preach!!

Preach X 2!

He is the heart of the team.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #71 on: September 03, 2017, 11:32:30 PM »

Offline sirnastee

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I think we should wait and let the market set the price.  I started a post a few months ago wondering exactly how much IT can even get in the market next year.  Many teams have used up their cap space the past 2 years, and there a lot of good free agents next year. 

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #72 on: September 03, 2017, 11:42:08 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

I love the sentiment and agree. Marcus makes winning plays.

I'm just wondering, how is Marcus worth about 10 extra possessions per game?

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #73 on: September 04, 2017, 12:40:16 AM »

Offline konkmv

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we have enough shooting now... need some good defensive plays.. extend him

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #74 on: September 10, 2017, 09:18:16 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.
262 3pt shots contested
234 deflections
42.6% opponent shooting (Bradley was 46.5%)
517 contested shots (20% more than Bradley, adjusted for games)
5th in the league in charges drawn

So let's do some math.  Marcus is worth about 10 extra possessions per game.  Possessions were worth 1.1 points last year.  Marcus made 1.2 3pointers on 4.2 attempts (28.3%).  If he improves his shooting to a healthy 35% it would yield 0.81 extra points per game.  Less than 1 point.

It literally does not matter if he clanks 3's for the rest of his career.  That's why Stevens plays him 30mpg and almost every crunch time minute.

I love the sentiment and agree. Marcus makes winning plays.

I'm just wondering, how is Marcus worth about 10 extra possessions per game?
It's an approximation that I won't be able to prove, but per game...

2 steals
3 deflections
6.5 contested shots
1 loose ball recovered
.3 charges drawn
maybe 1-3 stops over a replacement level defender
boxes out better than anyone on the roster
0.4 blocks
4 rebounds (15th among PG's)
AND last but not least, all the savvy plays he makes that don't show up anywhere.  Baiting people into fouls.  Being the enforcer.  Injecting energy into our defense like an adrenaline shot. Taking opponents out of their game.  Diving for loose balls like Bird or Cowens, f the consequences.  He severely dislocated his finger diving for a ball... IN SUMMER LEAGUE!

I've actually recorded games where I noted him gaining 15 extra possessions.  10 is probably the high side of average.