Author Topic: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?  (Read 2882 times)

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Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2017, 11:36:36 AM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Quote
Look at the Andre Roberson contract by comparison.

Smart is plainly superior to Roberson and his 3/30. What is your point, that Smart is in the 4/48-4/60 range?
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Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #46 on: September 03, 2017, 11:38:03 AM »

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I see a lot of people stating that Smart is worth something between $12 to $13 million a year. I would pay him that if he comes out this year and significantly improves his shooting. If he doesn't then he is basically a defense only role player and I think that's worth around the MLE or about $8.5 million a year. He can't come out and still remain one of the worst shooters of all time and expect an 8 figure annual salary.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #47 on: September 03, 2017, 11:46:44 AM »

Offline No Nickname

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No reason to extend Smart now.  Unless you think his 3pt shooting is going to improve significantly, we'll be able to get him for 4yr/48M or less next offseason.  Just don't see much of a market for him.  Bad teams aren't looking for good defenders that can't shoot.  Many of the good teams don't need him either and those that might would be over the cap so couldn't offer him that much.   

There will be plenty teams who either have, or can make space.

If he shoots above 35% he will absolutely get more than 12 per. Evan Turner got 4/70.

I'm afraid the Turner contract is what his agent will focus on, even though it's an outlier. Portland surely regrets it now.

I'm curious how much better Smart will be seeing that he'll be on the floor with so many shooters. Forget who starts, in the 4th quarter Marcus and Irving will be the backcourt. With Hayward instead of Jae, and Morris instead of Jerebko/Amir/etc it will be an entirely different dynamic. Irving may actually slide to a more traditional SG role with Marcus distributing. All of this could lead to wide open shots for Smart, open lanes to drive, or rotating defenses that give up more buckets leading to more assists for Smart.

He could have one helluva year next season.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #48 on: September 03, 2017, 11:52:46 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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I see a lot of people stating that Smart is worth something between $12 to $13 million a year. I would pay him that if he comes out this year and significantly improves his shooting. If he doesn't then he is basically a defense only role player and I think that's worth around the MLE or about $8.5 million a year. He can't come out and still remain one of the worst shooters of all time and expect an 8 figure annual salary.

You're right. For that kind of contract you have to be the 3rd or 4th best player on the team. And although you can make the case that he's right now, it's doubtful that with his current playing level he will still be that if Brown or Tatum make big leaps forward. It would be a shame if in a few years we have to let go of Brown or can't sign/trade for a big man to replace Horford, because we signed a role player for too much money.

I love Smart but he's not worth more on the market than 6-10 million. Any team that offers more is overpaying and should hope for a significant improvement in his shooting ability. It seems like people are still not realizing how stupid the contracts are that have been given out these last two summers.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #49 on: September 03, 2017, 12:42:09 PM »

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This is the year we figure out where Smart's place is on the roster. He either starts at SG or is 3rd guard/6th or 7th man. Much depends on how lineups fare with him vs Brown in various roles.

Either way, when you need 4 allstar players to win, he would be the 5th starter. So how much to you have slotted under your cap for each of the 5th-7th or 8th player?

We currently have 3, and always will we can expect, max players. We currently have, but might not always have, rotation players on rookie deals. It might be Marcus vs Brown for starting SG, and competing for a payday as well. Whichever one can't be replaced with an MLE guy can get paid.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #50 on: September 03, 2017, 12:53:32 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart). 

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #51 on: September 03, 2017, 01:05:01 PM »

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #52 on: September 03, 2017, 01:19:49 PM »

Offline jambr380

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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.

Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts are in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).

Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.

The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2017, 04:21:17 PM by jambr380 »

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #53 on: September 03, 2017, 01:27:02 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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There's also a lot we don't know yet. Market conditions affect the size of contracts. As we saw this year the size of the salary cap can change pretty late in the game, that can have a big effect. It also matters what teams need. If there is a lack of guards in free agency, it will push prices up, if there's a glut they will go down. Waiting to see what happens makes sense in this case.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #54 on: September 03, 2017, 01:28:25 PM »

Offline RJ87

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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.

Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).

Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.

The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.

Agreed. I've always thought Andre Roberson was the best gauge for Marcus. Andre turned down a 4 year, $48m extension and ended up signing for 3 years, $30m in restricted free agency. So I'd say split the difference, offer Marcus a 4 year, $44m extension and if he balks, let him go to RFA.
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Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #55 on: September 03, 2017, 03:08:18 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #56 on: September 03, 2017, 03:09:08 PM »

Offline max215

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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.

Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).

Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.

The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.

Agreed. I've always thought Andre Roberson was the best gauge for Marcus. Andre turned down a 4 year, $48m extension and ended up signing for 3 years, $30m in restricted free agency. So I'd say split the difference, offer Marcus a 4 year, $44m extension and if he balks, let him go to RFA.

This.
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Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #57 on: September 03, 2017, 03:39:02 PM »

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People using Turner and KO as a gauge need to realize that offensive players get paid.

Guys like Andre Roberson, Matthew Dellavedova, and Patrick Beverley should be the comps here. The first two contracts in the $10M/yr range while Beverley signed just before the cap spike at around $6M/yr (feel free to use inflate that # a bit to compare to today's salaries).

Simply put, Smart is an awesome, tenacious, fan-favorite (deservedly so), but until he increases his efficiency on the offensive end - like a lot - he is not going to get paid like Turner or possibly even KO.

The reason this is going to extend into next season is because Danny is not going to offer more than $40M/4 years and Smart is not going to accept that.

Those are valid points re: offensive-minded vs defensive-minded players.

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #58 on: September 03, 2017, 03:43:36 PM »

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.

Just because one is a big man and the other is a guard doesn't mean you can't compare their values on the free market.  It's all subjective of course but comparisons with other players drafted in the same range are at least somewhat valid, even more so when the two players are known more for their defense and uniquely specific offensive talents (rim-running and facilitation).

Re: Should the Celtics extend Smart now or after the season?
« Reply #59 on: September 03, 2017, 03:45:41 PM »

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Marcus was the 6th pick of the 2014 draft. The 6th pick of the 2013 draft was Nerlens Noel, another defensive-minded, offensively-challenged player with some upside.

Supposedly Noel turned down a 4yr/$70M deal from the Mavs. Almost everyone thinks he was an idiot for turning that down (fans and media).  I think Smart would grab that in a heartbeat.  So let's say that's the high end of an offer range, although most would think Danny was overpaying in that case. The Mavs don't have the same roster makeup as the C's so they could afford to gamble on that deal.

There's also no way he'd get a max offer like #3 2013 pick Otto Porter got (4/104). 

So Marcus will probably be offered something between 4/36 and 4/70 if I had to guess. At what point is that an overpay and at what point does he just laugh and toss the offer sheet away?

I think he declines immediately anything under 4/44.  He'd rather gamble on himself. As he'd only "lose" a few million even with a sub-par year, probably netting a minimum of 4/40.

I also think Danny wouldn't risk luxury tax scenarios so he'd at a max offer 4/56.  That's a max. $14M/yr average.  Marcus probably snaps that up quickly. The odds of him having a gangbuster year might only lead to a 4/60. So take the $56M bird in hand.

But knowing Danny, he wouldn't offer his max at first, before Smart's final year of his rookie deal. So I'd guess he might meet right in the middle of a total contract value of $44M (min Smart would consider) and $56M (max Danny would actually pay next summer) and offer 4yrs/$50M.

Same contract Kelly O got (and he was drafted much lower than Smart). I'd offer it if I were Danny. And I'd take it if I were Smart (or smart).
You can't value Smart the same as Noel. Good defensive bigs that can run the floor and finish around the rim are much more highly valued than defensive specialist guards that are horribly inefficient offensively. Yes, Noel is offensively challenged but at least he is mediocre efficient.

I also think Noel is a better defensive player, though I know thats probably sacrilege to say on this board.
He's not even a great finisher.  Career 51% shooter.  Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk both had better shooting % at the rim last year.
He has increased his FG% each year he has been in the league. Last year his FG% was 59.5% and his TS% was 62.2%. From inside 3 feet he finished at 71%. Its misleading not to mention his year by year improvement in shooting and finishing and just state his career average.

In comparison, Smart hasn't shown one bit of progression in his shooting stats and they are historically bad. Hence why I think its wrong to compare Nerlens and Smart as comparable salaries. Nerlens has progressed and gotten to be decent at least. Marcus...no progress. Nerlens, IMO is the better defender and an excellent rim protector. Nerlens is a better rebounder than Smart is a passer.

If Smart doesn't improve his shooting, I just don't see any team offering Smart what Dallas offered Noel. Not even close to that number. And it doesn't matter that they were both sixth picks in their respective drafts.