Author Topic: Celtics now co-favorites to win east  (Read 1050 times)

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Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« on: August 23, 2017, 01:22:10 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The book I check pretty frequently did an adjustment of their lines today following the trade. They are now co-favorites to win the east at 5/4 along with Cleveland. Both teams are tied for second best odds to win championship at 8-1. This is from sportsbook which is one of the bigger online books.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2017, 01:28:32 PM »

Offline Granath

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I'm seeing Cleveland as 5-1 and Boston as 6-1, but your point is made.

What's weird is that the odds to win the ECF are a bit more skewed. Cleveland stands at 5/7 while Boston is at 7/4. That means that while the odds-makers currently think Cleveland should still be favored to win the ECF, Boston actually has the better chance in a series against GSW.
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Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2017, 01:35:28 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I'm seeing Cleveland as 5-1 and Boston as 6-1, but your point is made.

What's weird is that the odds to win the ECF are a bit more skewed. Cleveland stands at 5/7 while Boston is at 7/4. That means that while the odds-makers currently think Cleveland should still be favored to win the ECF, Boston actually has the better chance in a series against GSW.

Yeah I am sure these odds will move around for a while and different books are going to have slightly different odds. It does seem crazy to me that one of the biggest sportsbook has us tied for both the east and the championship. Given that the Sportsbook site skews a little square and Lebron always attracts public money I actually expect some other sites to have Cleveland as slight underdogs to Boston. 

This does actually make me feel a bit better about the trade.


Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2017, 01:38:45 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I'm seeing Cleveland as 5-1 and Boston as 6-1, but your point is made.

What's weird is that the odds to win the ECF are a bit more skewed. Cleveland stands at 5/7 while Boston is at 7/4. That means that while the odds-makers currently think Cleveland should still be favored to win the ECF, Boston actually has the better chance in a series against GSW.

Granath on a side note what ever book you are looking at is giving you terrible juice on the champs odd. You can get a better line than 5-1 or 6-1 for Cleveland or Boston at many many places.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2017, 02:00:25 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2017, 02:06:07 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2017, 03:40:29 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2017, 03:55:23 PM »

Offline Bobshot

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Ainge said he made the deal because he thought it made the Celtics better. I'm not going to argue with him. He's the teacher. We'll see.

If you look at the deal, the only player they might miss is IT. But they only have a year of him left, and he didn't figure to score 28ppg again with Hayward around. Besides, Irving has a great contract which is affordable. Money is more of a factor for GMs than it is with fans. I also figure Danny was more willing to throw in that Nets pick than trade Tatum. He also has that other lottery pick to cash in on at some point.

A lot of this will depend on how Stevens is able to fit Irving into his scheme, and get the most out of him. That's true of the other newcomers, too. A real challenge for Stevens.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2017, 04:13:10 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..
Smith is an ok defender.  Not great or anything, but certainly not as bad as you make him seem.  And at least Thomas tries on defense (something Irving never did).  Thomas is too small to really be an effective defender, but he gives the effort at least.  Don't get me wrong, it is a below average defensive backcourt, but I don't think it is the worst defensive backcourt in the league (off the top of my head, the Nets for example have a much worse defensive backcourt if they start Lin and Russell)
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Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2017, 04:14:18 PM »

Offline Granath

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Ainge said he made the deal because he thought it made the Celtics better. I'm not going to argue with him. He's the teacher. We'll see.

If you look at the deal, the only player they might miss is IT. But they only have a year of him left, and he didn't figure to score 28ppg again with Hayward around. Besides, Irving has a great contract which is affordable. Money is more of a factor for GMs than it is with fans. I also figure Danny was more willing to throw in that Nets pick than trade Tatum. He also has that other lottery pick to cash in on at some point.

A lot of this will depend on how Stevens is able to fit Irving into his scheme, and get the most out of him. That's true of the other newcomers, too. A real challenge for Stevens.

You make a valuable point but let's expound on it.

Prior to the trade, the Cs were headed into Luxury Tax territory even if they let Smart go. That's pretty critical because Horford's contract would still run for two more years. The tax is bad enough. Up to $5m it's $1.50 per $1. Get to $15m over the tax level and it's $3.25/$1. End up $18m over the tax and you pay a whopping $38.55 in tax. No team can afford that for long. Then you get the repeater tax and it's even worse.

Irving's contract allows us to possibly re-sign Smart without going into the tax. Therefore we don't pay tax in 2018/2019. We re-sign Irving in 19/20 and Horford's contract only runs one year. Either we pay tax for that year, or move Al depending on how the team is doing (plus he has a player option). Al's contract runs out in 2020 (assuming he's not gone before then) and that's when Jaylen's contract is due. Thus we're not in danger of the repeater luxury tax which would cause major issues.

It's planned pretty well and being able to push Kyrie out two years while potentially re-signing Smart means we're far better off cap-wise.
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Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2017, 04:18:46 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..
Smith is an ok defender.  Not great or anything, but certainly not as bad as you make him seem.  And at least Thomas tries on defense (something Irving never did).  Thomas is too small to really be an effective defender, but he gives the effort at least.  Don't get me wrong, it is a below average defensive backcourt, but I don't think it is the worst defensive backcourt in the league (off the top of my head, the Nets for example have a much worse defensive backcourt if they start Lin and Russell)

Moranis you can polish the turd all you want on this one, regardless, Smith/Rose/IT are a very bad defensive rotation and all statistics I have seen back that up. It is fascinating to me that you were trumping around the Cleveland being favorites to win the east next year for the better part of two months and the books make an adjustment and completely even the odds and you don't say a peep about it...

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2017, 04:48:34 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

I agree about the starting lineup. I was thinking of the finishing lineup.

But regardless, I still wonder whether the lines are reflecting injury risk, rather than just straight up talent. Especially the way Lebron had his way with us last year.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2017, 05:48:13 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

I agree about the starting lineup. I was thinking of the finishing lineup.

But regardless, I still wonder whether the lines are reflecting injury risk, rather than just straight up talent. Especially the way Lebron had his way with us last year.

It is sad that you never get an explanation for why lines change when they do (but of course that would give away their secret sauce and hurt their business). I've repeatedly made the argument on this forum the last year or so that Irving and IT were very similar players. However, given the events of the last day as well as this kind of movement in odds it appears a position that neither Danny Ainge or NBA evaluators agreed with. It seems like the prevailing thought is that IT will not replicate what he did from last season and that Irving will improve on it. I am not sure if that is fair.

Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2017, 06:12:38 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Everytime i can remember , pre game cavs vs Celts ,  interviews with Brad Stevens ......when asked how do you stop Irving ?   Brad just melts down with type of stary eyed look , if you drove a new Ferrari out of the show room.......he just looked so loving .....like I just wish for once Irving was MY guard all over his face.    He did this everytime . 

I think Brad dream players has came true .....Hayward and Irving

Im really stoked to see what he can do .....and mix in a crazy talent rookie like Tatum.


Now just bring Davis or M Gasol.


Re: Celtics now co-favorites to win east
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2017, 06:18:29 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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Everytime i can remember , pre game cavs vs Celts ,  interviews with Brad Stevens ......when asked how do you stop Irving ?   Brad just melts down with type of stary eyed look , if you drove a new Ferrari out of the show room.......he just looked so loving .....like I just wish for once Irving was MY guard all over his face.    He did this everytime . 

I think Brad dream players has came true .....Hayward and Irving

Im really stoked to see what he can do .....and mix in a crazy talent rookie like Tatum.


Now just bring Davis or M Gasol.

We don't have assets to trade for Davis anymore.

Maybe for Gasol but that's not a wise investment given his age and I don't trust the fit between Horford and Gasol.