Celtics now co-favorites to win east

[celticsclay]

Everytime i can remember , pre game cavs vs Celts ,  interviews with Brad Stevens ......when asked how do you stop Irving ?   Brad just melts down with type of stary eyed look , if you drove a new Ferrari out of the show room.......he just looked so loving .....like I just wish for once Irving was MY guard all over his face.    He did this everytime . 

I think Brad dream players has came true .....Hayward and Irving

Im really stoked to see what he can do .....and mix in a crazy talent rookie like Tatum.


Now just bring Davis or M Gasol.

We don't have assets to trade for Davis anymore.

Maybe for Gasol but that's not a wise investment given his age and I don't trust the fit between Horford and Gasol.

A trade of Brown, Tatum, Smart and the Lakers/Kings pick, particularly if both the young guys are playing well and the Lakers are looking terrible, would be somewhat enticing right?

[Boris Badenov]

Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

I agree about the starting lineup. I was thinking of the finishing lineup.

But regardless, I still wonder whether the lines are reflecting injury risk, rather than just straight up talent. Especially the way Lebron had his way with us last year.

It is sad that you never get an explanation for why lines change when they do (but of course that would give away their secret sauce and hurt their business). I've repeatedly made the argument on this forum the last year or so that Irving and IT were very similar players. However, given the events of the last day as well as this kind of movement in odds it appears a position that neither Danny Ainge or NBA evaluators agreed with. It seems like the prevailing thought is that IT will not replicate what he did from last season and that Irving will improve on it. I am not sure if that is fair.

If that's where the smart money is, that's where it is. Right?

For perspective on those expectations, here is a list of every season in NBA history where a player 5'11" or below scored 21+ points:

Player           Year     Age   PPG
Isaiah Thomas   2016-17   27   28.9
Isaiah Thomas   2015-16   26   22.2
Calvin Murphy   1975-76   27   21
Calvin Murphy   1977-78   29   25.6
Michael Adams   1990-91   28   26.5


First off, it is exceedingly rare. That's since 1947.

Second, if you look at the age ranges when these happened, they are all clustered in the 26-29 range. That's narrow and might suggest that even these exceptional players have a limited window when they can do it.

And as a corollary, even the guys who've put together these seasons have done it at most twice. It's not like there's been anyone of that height who strung together 6-7 top-flight seasons.

Maybe IT will prove to be the exception, but perhaps between this and his injury, the market just doesn't see him reaching the same level again.

[Moranis]

Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

Smith is an ok defender.  Not great or anything, but certainly not as bad as you make him seem.  And at least Thomas tries on defense (something Irving never did).  Thomas is too small to really be an effective defender, but he gives the effort at least.  Don't get me wrong, it is a below average defensive backcourt, but I don't think it is the worst defensive backcourt in the league (off the top of my head, the Nets for example have a much worse defensive backcourt if they start Lin and Russell)

Moranis you can polish the turd all you want on this one, regardless, Smith/Rose/IT are a very bad defensive rotation and all statistics I have seen back that up. It is fascinating to me that you were trumping around the Cleveland being favorites to win the east next year for the better part of two months and the books make an adjustment and completely even the odds and you don't say a peep about it...

a trade was made which made Boston better and Cleveland worse.  Of course the odds would adjust.  Only a moron would think they wouldn't.  Why would that need comment.

[celticsclay]

Mods I think I probably put this is in the wrong section and should be moved to Celtics Talk. Are people surprised that this trade improved the Celtics odds and we are seen as complete equals to Cleveland now? Would love to hear other fan's take on this change. I say this all as someone that was very unhappy with the trade overall.

To me this equals concerns about Isaiah's health.

The Brooklyn pick doesn't really affect how good Cleveland will be this year. Crowder's a known quantity. And Zizic is a rookie.

To me, when healthy, Lebron/Love/Crowder/Smith/Thomas would be the favorites. You have the best player in the league and two All-Star talents, along with one of the league's better glue guys.

Do you really think Crowder starts? Also what is happening to Thompson here? It seems like the only starting lineup they can play is IT/Smith/Lebron/Love/Thompson

IT/Smith is the worst defensive backcourt in the league right? Then Rose and IT spell each other because there is no way they can play more than a few minutes together given their defense/size..

Smith is an ok defender.  Not great or anything, but certainly not as bad as you make him seem.  And at least Thomas tries on defense (something Irving never did).  Thomas is too small to really be an effective defender, but he gives the effort at least.  Don't get me wrong, it is a below average defensive backcourt, but I don't think it is the worst defensive backcourt in the league (off the top of my head, the Nets for example have a much worse defensive backcourt if they start Lin and Russell)

Moranis you can polish the turd all you want on this one, regardless, Smith/Rose/IT are a very bad defensive rotation and all statistics I have seen back that up. It is fascinating to me that you were trumping around the Cleveland being favorites to win the east next year for the better part of two months and the books make an adjustment and completely even the odds and you don't say a peep about it...

a trade was made which made Boston better and Cleveland worse.  Of course the odds would adjust.  Only a moron would think they wouldn't.  Why would that need comment.

I think you mispelled your handle here. If your point was that somebody was going on and on all offseason about how much bigger favorites Cleveland was than Boston (I'm guessing you stated this like 15 times), and then that changed from a trade, most people would comment on the changed odds. Do you think the new odds make fair? Most feel like the trade was close to a wash for next year given IT performing at a top level better than Kyrie last year and Crowder being exactly the kind of bench player/Lebron backup they needed. However, now the Celtics are tied for favorites or outright favorites? Why? Is Cleveland that much worse? Are we that much better? I am sad you lost your talking point but don't go silent. You are our prominent Cavs fan here so we need that perspective.

[Moranis]

I think the odds will adjust back some before the season starts, but currently reflect the simple fact that Irving was the best player in the trade and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding Thomas' hip, which became far more publicized and discussed after the trade.  The Cavs will enter the season as the favorites, but the trade definitely closed the gap for the simple fact that Irving is just flat out a better player than Thomas and a guy like Crowder is a nice player to have he is a bench role player and they don't move the needle in these types of things (and Zizic certainly doesn't move the needle at all for the Cavs' odds).  If both teams enter the playoffs healthy (or at least mostly healthy), I think most people would rather have James, Thomas, and Love then Hayward, Irving, and Horford.  I think Cleveland also has more quality from 4-12 as well, at least this year.  I don't even think Zizic is on the 12 man active roster for the Cavs while he was likely a rotation level player on the Celtics.  Going forward obviously Brown and Tatum are far more valuable than any non-big 3 player on the Cavs, I just don't expect much from them this year in the way of real contribution to a contending team. 

And for the record, I'm happy that Boston now has the 2nd and 3rd best player in the series, I just think the gap between James and Irving is immense which makes up for the smaller gap between Thomas and Hayward at 3/4 and Love isn't that far behind either ahead of Horford (though Horford is the better defender still).  The role players are all just role players but I'd take Thompson and Crowder over Smart and whomever else you want to add without thinking about it.  I think Rose still has some life left in his legs and is a tier above all but Smart on the C's (outside of the big 3).  Now maybe Brown comes out vastly improved or Tatum really impresses from the get go, and that all changes, but as of now, the Cavs will be favored in a playoff series against the Celtics as the teams are currently constructed and with the assumption that the teams are generally healthy (or at least the key players from each team).

[Evantime34]

The book I check pretty frequently did an adjustment of their lines today following the trade. They are now co-favorites to win the east at 5/4 along with Cleveland. Both teams are tied for second best odds to win championship at 8-1. This is from sportsbook which is one of the bigger online books.

If this is the case, people should bet Cleveland, that's great value since they are absolutely favorites to win the east.

[Sketch5]

Everytime i can remember , pre game cavs vs Celts ,  interviews with Brad Stevens ......when asked how do you stop Irving ?   Brad just melts down with type of stary eyed look , if you drove a new Ferrari out of the show room.......he just looked so loving .....like I just wish for once Irving was MY guard all over his face.    He did this everytime . 

I think Brad dream players has came true .....Hayward and Irving

Im really stoked to see what he can do .....and mix in a crazy talent rookie like Tatum.


Now just bring Davis or M Gasol.

We don't have assets to trade for Davis anymore.

Maybe for Gasol but that's not a wise investment given his age and I don't trust the fit between Horford and Gasol.

A trade of Brown, Tatum, Smart and the Lakers/Kings pick, particularly if both the young guys are playing well and the Lakers are looking terrible, would be somewhat enticing right?

Doesn't work, you can't get Cousins for that with out giving up Rozeir or Yabu. We would have no bench.

I't rather roll with what we have this year and maybe make a move for a cheap serviceable Big.

[celticsclay]

I think the odds will adjust back some before the season starts, but currently reflect the simple fact that Irving was the best player in the trade and there is a lot of uncertainty regarding Thomas' hip, which became far more publicized and discussed after the trade.  The Cavs will enter the season as the favorites, but the trade definitely closed the gap for the simple fact that Irving is just flat out a better player than Thomas and a guy like Crowder is a nice player to have he is a bench role player and they don't move the needle in these types of things (and Zizic certainly doesn't move the needle at all for the Cavs' odds).  If both teams enter the playoffs healthy (or at least mostly healthy), I think most people would rather have James, Thomas, and Love then Hayward, Irving, and Horford.  I think Cleveland also has more quality from 4-12 as well, at least this year.  I don't even think Zizic is on the 12 man active roster for the Cavs while he was likely a rotation level player on the Celtics.  Going forward obviously Brown and Tatum are far more valuable than any non-big 3 player on the Cavs, I just don't expect much from them this year in the way of real contribution to a contending team. 

And for the record, I'm happy that Boston now has the 2nd and 3rd best player in the series, I just think the gap between James and Irving is immense which makes up for the smaller gap between Thomas and Hayward at 3/4 and Love isn't that far behind either ahead of Horford (though Horford is the better defender still).  The role players are all just role players but I'd take Thompson and Crowder over Smart and whomever else you want to add without thinking about it.  I think Rose still has some life left in his legs and is a tier above all but Smart on the C's (outside of the big 3).  Now maybe Brown comes out vastly improved or Tatum really impresses from the get go, and that all changes, but as of now, the Cavs will be favored in a playoff series against the Celtics as the teams are currently constructed and with the assumption that the teams are generally healthy (or at least the key players from each team).

Please don't do this. These are your opinions and you are presenting them as someone else's fact. Right now neither team is favored. Some sights will have the Celtics as slight favorites, some have the Cavs as slight favorites. It is a complete dead heat. You have no reason or proof that Cleveland is or will be favored at any point. Just express your own opinion that you think they would beat us. Don't try and present this as some other person's opinions or a bookmaker's opinion. It is really obnoxious to do so.

[celticsclay]

The book I check pretty frequently did an adjustment of their lines today following the trade. They are now co-favorites to win the east at 5/4 along with Cleveland. Both teams are tied for second best odds to win championship at 8-1. This is from sportsbook which is one of the bigger online books.

If this is the case, people should bet Cleveland, that's great value since they are absolutely favorites to win the east.

It will be interesting to see how IT looks. I am a bit doubtful he is going to look exactly like the same player, particularly in the start of the year. If IT is really limited from that then all of a sudden the Celtics have the 2nd and 3rd best player in this matchup by a significant margin. I also am curious if they will trade Love now.

[Moranis]

And for the record, I'm not sure what sites you are using, because all the ones I just found have either not adjusted their odds or have moved them, but not nearly enough to call the teams co-favorites.

For example, the Westgate Sports Book didn't even change their championship odds after the trade.  http://www.ibtimes.com/nba-finals-2018-odds-cavaliers-celtics-unaffected-irving-thomas-trade-2581712

Cavs are still 4/1 and the Celtics are still 10/1, where they were before the trade.


These guys moved the odds slightly  https://betting.betfair.com/us-sports/basketball/nba-trade-kyrie-irving-isaiah-thomas-outright-betting-preview-august-23-2017-230817-797.html  (they have the C's going from from 5/2 to 2/1 and the Cavs dropping from 4/6 to 4/7 to win the East).


Bovada moved the title odds for the Cavs from +350 to +450 and the C's from +1200 to +750.  As for the East, they have the Cavs at -160 and the C's at +200 (pre-trade the Cavs were -200 and the C's were +240).  http://www.nbafutures.com/2017/08/23/how-the-kyrie-irvingisaiah-thomas-trade-changed-nba-futures/


So at the end of the day, the trade closed the gap, but Vegas still shows a gap. 

[celticsclay]

And for the record, I'm not sure what sites you are using, because all the ones I just found have either not adjusted their odds or have moved them, but not nearly enough to call the teams co-favorites.

For example, the Westgate Sports Book didn't even change their championship odds after the trade.  http://www.ibtimes.com/nba-finals-2018-odds-cavaliers-celtics-unaffected-irving-thomas-trade-2581712

Cavs are still 4/1 and the Celtics are still 10/1, where they were before the trade.


These guys moved the odds slightly  https://betting.betfair.com/us-sports/basketball/nba-trade-kyrie-irving-isaiah-thomas-outright-betting-preview-august-23-2017-230817-797.html  (they have the C's going from from 5/2 to 2/1 and the Cavs dropping from 4/6 to 4/7 to win the East).


Bovada moved the title odds for the Cavs from +350 to +450 and the C's from +1200 to +750.  As for the East, they have the Cavs at -160 and the C's at +200 (pre-trade the Cavs were -200 and the C's were +240).  http://www.nbafutures.com/2017/08/23/how-the-kyrie-irvingisaiah-thomas-trade-changed-nba-futures/


So at the end of the day, the trade closed the gap, but Vegas still shows a gap.

Sigh... I already explained what site I use in the intro and it is hardly a mom and pop operation.

 I could look across a bunch of them whether it be 5 dimes, Bovada, Sportsbook, betus, matchbook etc. As I have also mentioned I have done this and made a bit of money doing so for the last 10 years so it is something I have a lot of knowledge on (and you have expressed you have extremely limited knowledge and don't actually bet on this stuff).

I have also noted multiple times that you can find a bunch of sights that are going to have different lines and some are going to have very have cleveland favorite slightly and some not (this is the whole concept of line shopping and making arbs). I'm not going to send in a bunch of links from foreign betting sites and get myself kicked off here over it (related I am also on a computer I can't open up a bunch of sports betting sites on to look at your links).

Instead of just moving the goal posts or finding some article that suggest Cleveland is a favorite on a particular sight, do you have any more actual thought or analysis on why the Celtics and Cavs are even? Is your only hypothesis that people think IT is injured still? Is it built in expectation they would still add someone like Melo? Or do you just want to waste more of my and everyone else time debating stuff in the weeds.

[Moranis]

Sportsbook's current odds for the Eastern Conference are the Cavs -110 and the Celtics +180 (+800 and +1000 for the title).  That doesn't make them co-favorties. 

[celticsclay]

Sportsbook's current odds for the Eastern Conference are the Cavs -110 and the Celtics +180 (+800 and +1000 for the title).  That doesn't make them co-favorties.

You really are a tool man. The odds were what they were when I made the post. For a season futures 80 cents is not a big move. Granath also saw similar odds on a different book. I am sure they will move more throughout training camp, preseason and of course the season. You can either join the discussion on them or wait for them to move to a point you like and comment like an ass

[Moranis]

Sportsbook's current odds for the Eastern Conference are the Cavs -110 and the Celtics +180 (+800 and +1000 for the title).  That doesn't make them co-favorties.

You really are a tool man. The odds were what they were when I made the post. For a season futures 80 cents is not a big move. Granath also saw similar odds on a different book. I am sure they will move more throughout training camp, preseason and of course the season. You can either join the discussion on them or wait for them to move to a point you like and comment like an ass

I joined the discussion and your response to that was a highly flippant and disregarding comment that completely ignored the meat of my post.  Something you do quite frequently.  I then commented that the NBA futures don't actually show Boston and Cleveland as co-favorites, which further supported the point I was making.  Which again is, Cleveland is still the favorite and is still the better team, but the trade has closed the gap even more such that even a minor injury could affect the outcome of a series. 

And if the odds were truly they were a co-favorite with even odds right after the trade, the fact that they have moved without anything else happening means that at those odds Cleveland was receiving pretty heavy betting, which moved them back to a point that they are now drawing about even betting.  In other words, bettors believe Cleveland is the better team, which the odds now reflect.