Author Topic: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me  (Read 3830 times)

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Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2017, 02:18:56 PM »

Offline JBcat

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.



You are worried how we will replace Horford in 4 seasons from now when he's gone?

We will be in the NBA finals at least 2 times by then, so lets focus on that first.

You are missing my point. The OP was focusing on how beneficial this is for us long term 5 to 7 years out.  We only have a short term window as of now IMO because there is lots of uncertainty with our big men long term.  That is because of Horford's age and contract.

Big men all star types aren't easily attainable, and we won't have max cap space for a very long time. We are thin up front.

So in my eyes until further changes it's still a short window unless someone like Yabu magically turns into Draymond Green, and we just need an average center.

That's all I was getting at.


Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2017, 02:26:31 PM »

Offline Granath

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.



You are worried how we will replace Horford in 4 seasons from now when he's gone?

We will be in the NBA finals at least 2 times by then, so lets focus on that first.

You are missing my point. The OP was focusing on how beneficial this is for us long term 5 to 7 years out.  We only have a short term window as of now IMO because there is lots of uncertainty with our big men long term.  That is because of Horford's age and contract.

Big men all star types aren't easily attainable, and we won't have max cap space for a very long time. We are thin up front.

So in my eyes until further changes it's still a short window unless someone like Yabu magically turns into Draymond Green, and we just need an average center.

That's all I was getting at.

Then you misunderstood the post. He said the window goes from 2018/2019 and goes for 5-7 years.

In reality, the window doesn't change for now. It extends it out.
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Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2017, 02:37:10 PM »

Offline biggs

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Horford is 31, how does he fit into this 5-7 year window?
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Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2017, 02:39:44 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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I think most pundits are saying that both teams are better off from this trade.

Looking at trades as if one team has to win is naive. The Celtics needed to get value for IT or get stuck paying more for them than they wanted to. That is why they were willing to give up the Brooklyn pick. They couldn't waste an opportunity to get value for IT.

I understand that some people value IT more than Ainge and considered this an overpay. But that is ignoring the reality that it is very likely that (1) Ainge would have let IT walk rather than pay more than he felt he was worth and (2) IT most likely would not have repeated the same success, especially with hip issue. The hip issue likely also contributed to the need to include the Brooklyn pick as Cleveland really needs IT to contribute this season.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2017, 02:40:15 PM »

Offline liam

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Look what the Bucks offered:
 "According to Gambadoro, Milwaukee offered guard Malcolm Brogdon, wing Khris Middleton and a first-round pick in exchange for Irving."

And look how far that package got them...

I agree. That was a decent package Milwaukee offered. They were going to send two starters and a pick. I think we topped that. What The Bucks were offering was better than what teams got for Butler and George.... I think Kyrie is viewed as a better player than either of this guys...

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2017, 02:44:40 PM »

Offline Endless Paradise

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Horford is 31, how does he fit into this 5-7 year window?

He doesn't, but it's a lot easier to move an expiring Isaiah Thomas who's not even making double figures than it is to trade an even-older, maxed-out-for-three-more-seasons Al Horford.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2017, 03:20:15 PM »

Offline jacigar

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Its all about the money. IT would get max after 17/18 at 28 years old. 5 years 28-32. Irving gets max in 18/19 at 27 years old 5 years 27-31 .Plus 17-19 at 19m per. You get Irving from age 25 thru 31 . IT from 28 thru 32. Also we still have LAL 2-6 in 2018 or Phil/Sac 2019 2-30hould get . This pick should get us future pick to replace Ah. Future lineup of Irving-Smart-Hayward-Morris-Ah with bench of Rozier-Brown Tatum-(big),looks pretty good. Hope for 1 of Theus, etc to develop.We  also have a flock of 2019 rnd 1s  to play with.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #22 on: August 23, 2017, 03:28:50 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Look what the Bucks offered:
 "According to Gambadoro, Milwaukee offered guard Malcolm Brogdon, wing Khris Middleton and a first-round pick in exchange for Irving."

And look how far that package got them...

I agree. That was a decent package Milwaukee offered. They were going to send two starters and a pick. I think we topped that. What The Bucks were offering was better than what teams got for Butler and George.... I think Kyrie is viewed as a better player than either of this guys...
That is no where near better than what Chicago got for Butler.  I'd probably give you it is better than what Indiana got, but that really depends on what you think of Oladipo vs. Middleton. 
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Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #23 on: August 23, 2017, 03:47:59 PM »

Offline JBcat

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.



You are worried how we will replace Horford in 4 seasons from now when he's gone?

We will be in the NBA finals at least 2 times by then, so lets focus on that first.

You are missing my point. The OP was focusing on how beneficial this is for us long term 5 to 7 years out.  We only have a short term window as of now IMO because there is lots of uncertainty with our big men long term.  That is because of Horford's age and contract.

Big men all star types aren't easily attainable, and we won't have max cap space for a very long time. We are thin up front.

So in my eyes until further changes it's still a short window unless someone like Yabu magically turns into Draymond Green, and we just need an average center.

That's all I was getting at.

Then you misunderstood the post. He said the window goes from 2018/2019 and goes for 5-7 years.

In reality, the window doesn't change for now. It extends it out.

Well I agree we are in better shape now than yesterday for a longer window, but not sure I agree it goes 5-7 years out at this very moment.  We have a big question mark with our bigs if you look that far out. 

Ainge still has assets to do some other things though.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #24 on: August 23, 2017, 07:04:58 PM »

Offline NorCalJack

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Well this is why this trade makes sense to me.

With regard to the Nets pick, I think it is the least valuable of Brown, Tatum, Lakers/Sac picks.  Brown and Tatum are know commodities and the Celtics like both very much.  Danny values the Lakers/Sac pick higher than the Nets pick.  If Brooklyn played out the next season in the West and the Eastern Conference, they would have a worst record playing in the West.  So I think Danny feels the Lakers will have a more difficult time winning games this year than the Nets.  Also people over value the impact that Ball will have on the Lakers win total for this year.  No rookie that has only played one year of CBB has lead a team to the playoffs.  If you look at A. Davis, as good as he is, he can not lead NO to the playoffs.  Not sure why people think Ball will lead the Lakers to a good record this year.  Also teams will be gunning for Ball and the Lakers in a tough Western Conference.  So I would rank these assets as follows.

1.)  Tatum
2.)  Brown
3.)  Lakers/Sac pick
4.)  Nets 2018 pick

Also I look at this trade as a straight up trade of Irving for the Nets pick.  IT, Jae and Zizic are just added to the trade to make salaries work.  IT is damaged goods and we were not going to sign him anyway.  Jae is a role player, with a good contract.  Zizic is a bit of a mystery to me, but I am sure the FO has seen enough to not flinch in putting him into the trade.

So I would trade our 4th best asset in the Nets pick for Kyrie straight up all day long.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #25 on: August 23, 2017, 07:22:27 PM »

Offline 2short

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Horford is 31, how does he fit into this 5-7 year window?
horford in mini tim duncan, his game will age quite nicely

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #26 on: August 23, 2017, 07:44:39 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Horford is 31, how does he fit into this 5-7 year window?
horford in mini tim duncan, his game will age quite nicely

It doesn't fit in to the 5-7 year window at all.

And Horford is nothing like Tim Duncan.  Like, not even remotely close. 

One is was a 7'0" / 260 lbs guy who was an elite defender, elite rebounder and an elite post player who rarely ever shot threes, had a deadly midrange game, and was always deadly efficient on offense. 

The other is a 6'10" / 250 lbs guy who is a pretty good defender, a poor rebounder, and average post player who spends 80% of his offense jacking up jump shots.

The only similarities is that they both have games based around fundametals, they are both good midrange shooters, and they are both quality passers.  That's really the only similarities between those two players...

Horford is more like a watered down Draymond Green minus the **** personality.

And Horford's game clearly will not age nicely, since he's only 31 years old right now and has already been showing signs of decline for three straight years now. 


Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #27 on: August 23, 2017, 07:50:14 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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IT was always a stop gap .....unless he wanted to lead a bench .  It is just hard to,start a guy that short and overcome the defensive liabilities. 

IT , Turner , AB , Crowder took Boston as far as they could .

To beat GS and Team Lebron Celtics needed a higher level of talent .

They are getting there now. 

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #28 on: August 23, 2017, 08:06:28 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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With regard to the Nets pick, I think it is the least valuable of Brown, Tatum, Lakers/Sac picks.  Brown and Tatum are know commodities and the Celtics like both very much.  Danny values the Lakers/Sac pick higher than the Nets pick.  If Brooklyn played out the next season in the West and the Eastern Conference, they would have a worst record playing in the West.

That's all good and well if the NBA draft odds were determined based on where you finish within your conference...but they aren't...they are based on overall record.

So it doesn't really matter (that much) how strong the rest of the teams in the West are.  The Lakers gave a much stronger team then the Nets.  If the Nets only win 10 games all season long (remember they DID loose Brook Lopez) then the Lakers are talented enough that they'd struggle to reach that number even if they tried.  And there is no point in them trying since we have their pick, so they have zero incentive to want to lose games. 

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #29 on: August 23, 2017, 08:10:28 PM »

Offline Chris22

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The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason.
But other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?

We still have the Lakers pick.