Author Topic: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me  (Read 1668 times)

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Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« on: August 23, 2017, 12:30:08 PM »

Offline footey

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.


Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2017, 12:36:49 PM »

Offline the TRUTH

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Great points here regarding timing and youth. Irving certainly fits our window more than IT did.

If Brown and Tatum both turn into stars, then we have a legitimate dynasty on our hands - it's only a matter of time (this assumes that Irving re-signs with us when his deal is up). So much of our future is riding on the development of Brown and Tatum now, whereas we had more margin for error if we'd retained the Nets pick.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2017, 12:43:15 PM »

Offline CoachBo

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus.  I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.

Your best post that I have read. TP.
Coined the CelticsBlog term, "Euromistake."

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #3 on: August 23, 2017, 12:45:16 PM »

Offline littleteapot

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The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason.
But other than that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
How do you feel about websites where people with similar interests share their opinions?
I'm forum!

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2017, 01:24:23 PM »

Offline JBcat

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.


Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2017, 01:29:34 PM »

Offline mef730

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.

We would happily flip Horford, but who's going to give up a young star for a 31-32 year old player making 30m per year?

Mike
Tickets for the 2017-18 season for sale at face value! Thread here: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=93612.0

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2017, 01:36:52 PM »

Offline jambr380

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.

The Zizic throw-in is one of the biggest things being overlooked in this deal. Not only did we give up our only young big, but we also gave up 4 years of a very cheap contract (and 9 years of control). The Cs must have been very disappointed with what they have seen from Zizic. IT, Crowder, and [of course] the BKN pick were the main pieces - it seems like including one of our many 2nd rounders wouldn't have been a deal breaker.

As for Horford, he will probably age well, but Danny clearly has a plan to upgrade his max contract spots to no-doubt max-level players. Irving and Hayward seem to fit the bill both in terms of age and ability; I am not sure what the future holds for Horford or if there would even be any interest in him. Luckily, he is the ultimate team player and is super-consistent.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #7 on: August 23, 2017, 01:38:11 PM »

Offline incoherent

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How this trade isnt a blatant win to some people is beyond me.

I heartily laugh in the face of anyone saying we lost this trade.  They need to check their emotions at the door. 

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #8 on: August 23, 2017, 01:39:00 PM »

Offline incoherent

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.



You are worried how we will replace Horford in 4 seasons from now when he's gone?

We will be in the NBA finals at least 2 times by then, so lets focus on that first.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #9 on: August 23, 2017, 01:39:35 PM »

Offline incoherent

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.

The Zizic throw-in is one of the biggest things being overlooked in this deal. Not only did we give up our only young big, but we also gave up 4 years of a very cheap contract (and 9 years of control). The Cs must have been very disappointed with what they have seen from Zizic. IT, Crowder, and [of course] the BKN pick were the main pieces - it seems like including one of our many 2nd rounders wouldn't have been a deal breaker.

As for Horford, he will probably age well, but Danny clearly has a plan to upgrade his max contract spots to no-doubt max-level players. Irving and Hayward seem to fit the bill both in terms of age and ability; I am not sure what the future holds for Horford or if there would even be any interest in him. Luckily, he is the ultimate team player and is super-consistent.

Zizic showed us in summer league he is no where near ready for nightly NBA competition.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2017, 01:47:07 PM »

Offline bknova

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Danny believes that the NBA rules favor super athletic, fast, talented PG's.  Look at his drafting history (e.g., Rozier), his fascination with IT. His earlier fascination with AI (pre KG trade). His prior fascination with Chris Paul (two times, once when we tried to trade Pierce to Portland, and more recently when he was leaving NO).

I agree with him. 

IT was definitely our engine the last couple of seasons.  He made us click.

But Danny also has to project out a couple of things: When will GSW be vulnerable?  And when will our top picks (Brown, Smart, Tatum, Rozier, Yabusele) be developed enough to really compete? 

The answer to both questions is: not this coming season; maybe the season after. That's when things get real interesting for us.

IT just doesn't fit into that window. He is peaking now, turning 29 soon, and will be 33/34 when his max contract (which he will get) expires.  Danny wanted to trade up for a younger player (Irving) who is likely more durable, has his best seasons ahead of him, whose peak will coincide with the above time table of our maximum competitive value as a team; i.e., starting with the 2018/19 season, and continuing for the next 5-7 years afterward. 

The price of that upgrade was the Brooklyn pick.  It was expensive, for sure, and most pundits are saying that CLE won the trade for that reason. But I feel that the best way to judge this trade is not wait for this coming season, but wait to see what happens for the next 5-7 years.  I really think we have built an incredible nucleus. I would have loved to have gotten another top pick next draft, but we are so close now to competing, that it was worth cashing it in for the upgrade in youth and talent we are getting at the most important position in today's NBA.

Timing is everything.


Who says we won't.  That Laker pick could be top 5 and we retained.  The chances of the BK pick being as high as it was this year are lower because Chicago and Indiana are in full blown tank mode. 

Yes, I would've preferred number 1 pick protection on the BK pick, but if you think about it, Danny traded Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Jason Terry for James Young, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving entering his prime, and what will likely be a top 5 pick in one of the next two drafts.  Thats highway robbery, man.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #11 on: August 23, 2017, 01:48:05 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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All very good points but one worry of mine still exists when you talk about a 5-7 year window.

That is our big man situation.  Horford has 3 years left on his contract already in his 30s.

So if you project further out like you are trying to do we still need to solve the long term big man question. Our 1 lone project big in Zizic is gone now.

Can we flip Horford within a year or 2 for a younger star big similar to what we just did with Thomas.  The easy names to put out there are Davis, Cousins, and Porzingas.  Maybe there will be another name or 2 that will surprise us.

The Zizic throw-in is one of the biggest things being overlooked in this deal. Not only did we give up our only young big, but we also gave up 4 years of a very cheap contract (and 9 years of control). The Cs must have been very disappointed with what they have seen from Zizic. IT, Crowder, and [of course] the BKN pick were the main pieces - it seems like including one of our many 2nd rounders wouldn't have been a deal breaker.

As for Horford, he will probably age well, but Danny clearly has a plan to upgrade his max contract spots to no-doubt max-level players. Irving and Hayward seem to fit the bill both in terms of age and ability; I am not sure what the future holds for Horford or if there would even be any interest in him. Luckily, he is the ultimate team player and is super-consistent.

Got news for you guys. Zizic has absolutely no chance of being a legitimate center on a contender. We saw everything we needed to see in the summer league. He is a slow center with no vertical. That in itself dramatically reduces his upside. He will only get slower as he ages, his vertical will only get worse. At his ceiling he is a solid rotation guy on a decent team or a starter on a bad team that has no other options. He's not a terrible player and should improve some, just not a key piece in this at all. Crowder and the Nets pick are worth debating, not this guy who will never matter.

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #12 on: August 23, 2017, 01:49:43 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

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I want to say one thing that I haven't seen probably because of all the pages and threads. When has Danny ever made a decision this big without consulting his best players? This means that Hayward and Horford probably signed off on this or at the least didn't give enough indication that they would be upset about the move! No matter how you slice it, if Hayward says it would be an issue I believe that Danny would not have done this because Hayward is a major piece of what we are trying to do.



I didn't know where to post this.
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Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2017, 02:03:55 PM »

Offline liam

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Look what the Bucks offered:
 "According to Gambadoro, Milwaukee offered guard Malcolm Brogdon, wing Khris Middleton and a first-round pick in exchange for Irving."

Re: Why the Irving Trade Makes Sense to me
« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2017, 02:14:46 PM »

Offline EJPLAYA

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Look what the Bucks offered:
 "According to Gambadoro, Milwaukee offered guard Malcolm Brogdon, wing Khris Middleton and a first-round pick in exchange for Irving."

And look how far that package got them...