Stevens needs to win a title soon or it won't happen

[Moranis]

at least historically.  The only coach in NBA to win his first title with a team after 6 years of coaching with that team was Red Auerbach who won his first title in his 7th season with the Celtics.  Al Cervi, Al Attles, Billy Cunningham, and Chuck Daly all won their 1st title with a team in year 6 of coaching with that team.  Only 3 coaches won their 1st title after their 11th year of coaching a NBA team overall.  Red Auerbach, Bill Fitch, and Larry Brown (it was Brown's 22nd year as a NBA head coach, but his 1st year in Detroit - Brown also had ABA and NCAA experience).  Dick Motta did it in his 10th year overall, but as indicated of the 10 year + guys only Auerbach made it past 5 years with that title winning team before breaking through.

Stevens is entering his 5th season, so historically it needs to happen in the next couple of seasons or it isn't going to happen at all. 

[saltlover]

Could be a bit of selection bias here -- how many coaches have lasted more than six years with a team without winning a title?  And for how much beyond six years did they coach?

[BitterJim]

at least historically.  The only coach in NBA to win his first title with a team after 6 years of coaching with that team was Red Auerbach who won his first title in his 7th season with the Celtics.  Al Cervi, Al Attles, Billy Cunningham, and Chuck Daly all won their 1st title with a team in year 6 of coaching with that team.  Only 3 coaches won their 1st title after their 11th year of coaching a NBA team overall.  Red Auerbach, Bill Fitch, and Larry Brown (it was Brown's 22nd year as a NBA head coach, but his 1st year in Detroit - Brown also had ABA and NCAA experience).  Dick Motta did it in his 10th year overall, but as indicated of the 10 year + guys only Auerbach made it past 5 years with that title winning team before breaking through.

Stevens is entering his 5th season, so historically it needs to happen in the next couple of seasons or it isn't going to happen at all.

How many NBA coaches have won Championships? And how many coaches spend more than 5 seasons with a team? How many coaches come into rebuilding situations and are good enough to still be there when the team becomes a contender?

The sample size for coaches in Brad's position is way too small to draw any conclusions from

[Moranis]

Could be a bit of selection bias here -- how many coaches have lasted more than six years with a team without winning a title?  And for how much beyond six years did they coach?

This might not be a complete list, as I was just doing it manually based on a list of all coaches (and not sorted by years or anything). 

Jerry Sloan (23 years in Utah)
John MacLeod (14 years with Phoenix)
Doug Moe (10 seasons in Denver)
Flip Saunders (10 year in Minnesota)
Bill Fitch (9 years in Cleveland before going to Boston and winning in year 2)
Rick Adelman (8 years with Sacramento and that was after 6 years in Portland and 2 years in Golden State)
George Karl (7 in Seattle, 8 in Denver)
Lenny Wilkens (7 years with both Cleveland and Atlanta)
Nate McMillan (7 years in Portland)
Jeff Van Gundy (7 years with New York)

Plenty of coaches made it to 6 years and then for whatever reason were not retained past that year.

[SHAQATTACK]

yup.....the rehearsal is over ...CBS has had time to practice and hone his skills ...


CBS is in the spotlight light now with likes of Horford ,Irving and Hayward


CBS ,.......the pressure cooker is on now buddy .......stage is set ....

Im going sit back and knock a few down and enjoy the ride.

[saltlover]

Could be a bit of selection bias here -- how many coaches have lasted more than six years with a team without winning a title?  And for how much beyond six years did they coach?

This might not be a complete list, as I was just doing it manually based on a list of all coaches (and not sorted by years or anything). 

Jerry Sloan (23 years in Utah)
John MacLeod (14 years with Phoenix)
Doug Moe (10 seasons in Denver)
Flip Saunders (10 year in Minnesota)
Bill Fitch (9 years in Cleveland before going to Boston and winning in year 2)
Rick Adelman (8 years with Sacramento and that was after 6 years in Portland and 2 years in Golden State)
George Karl (7 in Seattle, 8 in Denver)
Lenny Wilkens (7 years with both Cleveland and Atlanta)
Nate McMillan (7 years in Portland)
Jeff Van Gundy (7 years with New York)

Plenty of coaches made it to 6 years and then for whatever reason were not retained past that year.

I don't know -- it seems to me that the percentage of coaches who win their first title after year 6 with a team is greater than the percentage of coaches who win a title.

[SHAQATTACK]

Danny is a bloody genius ......Trading the #60 pick for a #1 pick .   .......now thats patience to get get what you really wanted all along.    SWEET .

[incoherent]

There is one massive flaw in this post.

You are comparing Stevens, a literal God, to mere mortals.

[Granath]

Stevens is entering his 5th season, so historically it needs to happen in the next couple of seasons or it isn't going to happen at all.

Another wonderful example of Moronis logic. Or the lack thereof.

1. Except just because it doesn't usually happen doesn't mean it can't happen. Everything is situational. There's never been a team that won 50 games with consecutive top 3 lottery picks either. I guess it can't happen, right?

2. The sample size is too small to make such a definitive evaluation.

3. The percentage of coaches who won a title after their 6th year of coaching is statistically greater than the percentage of coaches who win a title versus the number of overall coaches.

Long story short, nothing to see here folks.

[Moranis]

Could be a bit of selection bias here -- how many coaches have lasted more than six years with a team without winning a title?  And for how much beyond six years did they coach?

This might not be a complete list, as I was just doing it manually based on a list of all coaches (and not sorted by years or anything). 

Jerry Sloan (23 years in Utah)
John MacLeod (14 years with Phoenix)
Doug Moe (10 seasons in Denver)
Flip Saunders (10 year in Minnesota)
Bill Fitch (9 years in Cleveland before going to Boston and winning in year 2)
Rick Adelman (8 years with Sacramento and that was after 6 years in Portland and 2 years in Golden State)
George Karl (7 in Seattle, 8 in Denver)
Lenny Wilkens (7 years with both Cleveland and Atlanta)
Nate McMillan (7 years in Portland)
Jeff Van Gundy (7 years with New York)

Plenty of coaches made it to 6 years and then for whatever reason were not retained past that year.

I don't know -- it seems to me that the percentage of coaches who win their first title after year 6 with a team is greater than the percentage of coaches who win a title.

You assumption is wrong. The NBA has had 324 coaches with 32 winning a title or 9.8%.  Just 1 of the 32 coaches won a title past year 6 with the same team, which is 3.1%.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/coaches/NBA_stats.html

[Moranis]

Stevens is entering his 5th season, so historically it needs to happen in the next couple of seasons or it isn't going to happen at all.

Another wonderful example of Moronis logic. Or the lack thereof.

1. Except just because it doesn't usually happen doesn't mean it can't happen. Everything is situational. There's never been a team that won 50 games with consecutive top 3 lottery picks either. I guess it can't happen, right?

2. The sample size is too small to make such a definitive evaluation.

3. The percentage of coaches who won a title after their 6th year of coaching is statistically greater than the percentage of coaches who win a title versus the number of overall coaches.

Long story short, nothing to see here folks.

Obviously just because something has happened only once, doesn't mean it can't happen again, but historical trends also can't be just disregarded as nonsense.  There is a reason things happen over and over again historically. 

And #3 is just wrong, I posted the percentages above.  9.8 is greater than 3.1

[Moranis]

Well we are another year moved along, the team is underperforming, and some of the blame is being centered on Stevens, so I thought it was time to bring this thread back from the dead.

[Donoghus]

Ho-hum....

Let's see where this team is situated come April. 

It's not like he's on the hot seat for a mid-season firing or anything.  Looking at it now doesn't do much at all since it'll be the big picture of the entire season that he'll eventually be judged on.

[PhoSita]

I don't understand this logic at all.


Jerry Sloan coached the Utah Jazz starting 1988.  Jazz made the Finals in 1998, lost to the Bulls.

So you're saying the Jazz didn't win the Finals because Jerry had been coaching them for more than 6 years?

[Moranis]

Ho-hum....

Let's see where this team is situated come April. 

It's not like he's on the hot seat for a mid-season firing or anything.  Looking at it now doesn't do much at all since it'll be the big picture of the entire season that he'll eventually be judged on.

I don't think he is on the hot seat, but when I posted this last year, he wasn't either, but I do think Bird may be on to something when he says after so many years it is time for a change.  The message often gets lost.  Now this Celtics team is vastly different than most of the teams Stevens has had, making it more like college than the pros, but I don't think you can just ignore historical trends either.