Predict next season bottom 5 teams

[jambr380]

Gotta hand it to you, Moranis. You are pretty much the only one, pre-trade, to have the Nets outside the bottom 5 and the Lakers in it - TP. Let's see how many of us can rationalize our way to the same conclusion now 

[Moranis]

Gotta hand it to you, Moranis. You are pretty much the only one, pre-trade, to have the Nets outside the bottom 5 and the Lakers in it - TP. Let's see how many of us can rationalize our way to the same conclusion now 

I don't even necessarily think the Nets will be better than the Lakers.  They might be or they might not be.  As we all know, W/L records don't always show who is better (see Boston and Cleveland last year - which I also thought would happen this year, though that was pre-trade). 

[JBcat]

The Nets need more adequate bigs for me to feel comfortable putting them outside the bottom 5.  They will get pummeled on the boards.  As of now they have Mozgov, Booker, and the rookie Collins.  That's it?

[Moranis]

The Nets need more adequate bigs for me to feel comfortable putting them outside the bottom 5.  They will get pummeled on the boards.  As of now they have Mozgov, Booker, and the rookie Collins.  That's it?

they have some pretty good rebounding wings. 

[Fireworks_Boom!]

This got me thinking about lottery odds. Here is the snapshot from last year:

                                 #1    Top 2   Top 3   Top 4     Top 5
Worst Records           25.0   46.5    64.3    >99.9    >99.9
2nd Worst Record   19.9     38.7    55.8   87.7      >99.9
3rd Worst Record   15.6     31.3    46.9           
4th Worst Record   11.9     24.5    37.8   47.7        82.7

So as long as LAL are 4th worst record or even worse, we have a terrific chance of a top 5 pick. Minimum of an 83% chance.

[tazzmaniac]

This got me thinking about lottery odds. Here is the snapshot from last year:

                                 #1    Top 2   Top 3   Top 4     Top 5
Worst Records           25.0   46.5    64.3    >99.9    >99.9
2nd Worst Record   19.9     38.7    55.8   87.7      >99.9
3rd Worst Record   15.6     31.3    46.9           
4th Worst Record   11.9     24.5    37.8   47.7        82.7

So as long as LAL are 4th worst record or even worse, we have a terrific chance of a top 5 pick. Minimum of an 83% chance.

The pick is top 1 protected so you have to remove that percentage.  So if the Lakers finish with the worst record we only have a 75% chance of keeping the pick (#2 thru #4). 

[crimson_stallion]

I'm going to predict that the bottom 5 teams will be

*drumroll*

Atlanta
Brooklyn
Orlando
Sacramento
Indiana

Maybe not in that order, but it'll be around there.  All of those teams have absolutely garbage rosters at this point and I'd be pretty shocked if any of them even begin to sniff the playoffs. 

I can't see the Lakers being as bad as any of those 5 teams.

Seriously, you could combine all of those 5 teams into a single pool of players, select the 12 best players from that pool, and you STILL might not make the playoffs.  Your best starting 5 wold probably be:

Nikola Vucevic
Myles Turner
Demare Carroll
Victor Oladipo
Darren Collison

Who thinks that team would make the playoffs?  In the East maybe.

[Androslav]

I feel extra generous so I'll give a bottom 6 list

My Prediction:
- Chicago
- Atlanta
- Sacramento
- Indiana
- Orlando
- Brooklyn

My Wish:
- Sacramento
- Indiana
- Orlando
- Atlanta
- L.A. Lakers
- Brooklyn

[gouki88]

I don't get why people think LAL will be better than Sacramento. Sure, Sactown is generally terribly ran, but in terms of roster strength they should be better.

Hill, Hield, Fox, WCS, Skal, VC, Zach Randolph and Bogdanovic should all be solid this year.

Not to mention their other picks, being Giles, Jackson and Mason.

That, imo, compares favourably to the Lopez led Lakers. Sure, Ball is a raved about prospect. But I think he'll struggle (especially in his rookie year with no real weapons to pass to besides Lopez). Jordan Clarkson is an alright player, as is KCP, but they're no better than GHill and Hield. In fact, they're probably worse, if Buddy's Sacramento form is anything to go off.

My bottom 5 is:
LAL
Brooklyn
Atlanta
Chicago
Indiana

With Orlando and Phoenix close, then Sacramento

[Androslav]

I don't get why people think LAL will be better than Sacramento. Sure, Sactown is generally terrible running, but in terms of roster strength, they should be better.

Sacramento has some talent as you wrote, it is just the fact that they control their lottery chances this year and Lakers do not, meaning they can tank and get a high pick, while Lakers don't have a proper use for the accumulated losses. That is even more significant since Sacramento does not own the rights to their '19 pick, making that the logical year they can try to be the best they can. One year more experienced with current 4 rooks and 3 sophs developed a bit more. This way, they could also have an extra blue chipper to insert in their existing core. I also wouldn't rule out a George Hill trade somewhere around January/February. Just remember how the Lakers were OK to open the year, but with having so much incentive to stink, they stank. And got Ball.