I...um....hate this trade. With a passion. This is probably the first deal of Danny's that I've said that about. I didn't even have a problem with the Raef LaFrentz or Wally Sczerbiak trades. But I'm struggling here.
I can see the intent. Ainge didn't want to "back up the Brinks truck" on an 5'8" defensive liability who would spend most of the next contract in his 30s. At the same time, he couldn't afford to let him go for nothing next year. So this gave him a chance to trade for a better, younger player who he has under contract for two years (and probably can extend) and thus avoids the tax for those two years and can resign Smart. So a lineup of Hayward, Smart, Irving, Tatum, Brown and LAL 2018 is a team that can compete for a decade. We're going to be impossible to defend on the offensive end of the floor - Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Brown (if he progresses) with Horford facilitating - and we're not going to be worse on the defensive end as IT was hopeless on that end of the floor.
I also understand him getting rid of Crowder. In the past few weeks I've posted how there's a minutes crunch especially at the SF/PF positions. Crowder's been a bit of a disruption the last year or so and there may be some questions as to how he'd react in a more limited role coming off the bench. Plus it's another $7m saved and Marcus Morris can fill the defensive role that was Crowder's bread and butter.
At the same time....
To give up Brooklyn's #1 with no protections no option to swap that for LAL's #1 if it was the top pick was just a gross overpay. If it ends up being #1 again this could go down as a massive stinker of a decision along the lines of Bowie over Jordan in '84.
I don't like Irving. I think he's self-centered, either he's the worlds' greatest troller or an idiot and he lacks intensity on the floor. This is not a guy that I have warmed up to.
Crowder could have been a valuable piece. Zizic is the equivalent of a late lottery pick. Those aren't trivial and I don't like them being part of a "throw in" when we already gave so much away.
To win this trade, there's a lot that has to go Danny's way. IT's hip may not get better or his game may drop off substantially as he gets older. Brooklyn's pick may be #6 instead of #1. Irving could end up being as good as Russell Westbrook and that top tier guy to carry us all the way. If those things happen, then Danny wins. But if Brooklyn's pick is #1 (or #2 and LAL is #1), if we don't get by Cleveland, if Irving signs elsewhere after two years, if we don't win an NBA Championship then it's a massive bust of a deal.
Well, a lot of people have been wanting to go all-in on the poker table for a while now. They got their wish. Personally, I'm not feeling good about this one.