Author Topic: Talk me off the ledge....  (Read 4861 times)

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Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #60 on: August 22, 2017, 11:00:39 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Just ignore the last few years, I guess. If somebody told you we'd trade the aging KG and Pierce, along with spare parts, for Kyrie, Tatum, Brown and a likely lottery pick, you'd be pretty excited, right?

That's the best I've got.

Is that what we really did here? Did Crowder, IT and Zizic come out of the PP KG trades? People tend to forget we suffered through years of Wallace on the bench making $10 million to get these assets from BKN.

IT did (via the CLE pick and Marcus Thronton, which we got along with Zeller for the Paul Pierce trade exception). Zizic came from out own 2016 pick, and Crowder came from the Rondo deal
I'm bitter.

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #61 on: August 22, 2017, 11:08:03 PM »

Offline Smokeeye123

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If have traded the Brooklyn Pick, Zizic, Crowder and IT for Irving. We will have helped our biggest rival in the east. Given up a chance at a transcendent talent and given them a pick they can use to acquire another star to make them compete with the Warriors or crush us all while destroying our team chemistry... I have never felt this baffled by a trade before, and as much as I trust Ainge in general, this is a flat out awful trade if true.


Lebron is gone my dude. This year is cleveland's last ride.

 Celtic will walk into the finals this year or the next

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2017, 11:09:16 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Here take my hand...


...1. We were not paying IT $35 mil a year and 2. He's 29 going on 30 coming off a hip injury. and 3. Kyrie is 25 and not even in his prime yet.

Welcome back.

1. That's true, mostly because the max he can get will be 30% of the cap and the cap isn't rising to $116 million next year.  He literally can't get $35 million per year

2. He's 28 and turns 29 in February.  That is not "29 going on 30"
3. No arguments there

You are one of the cap kings around here so you should know better, BJ.

Just based on this year's $99M cap, a player in the 7-9 year range signing a 5 year max contract with 8% raises would make a total of just over $172M over the course of that contract ($34.4M/yr). There just needs to be a $1M increase in the cap next year for IT to sign a $35M/yr contract.

Personally, I don't think Danny was ever going to sign IT to the max and I don't think Cleveland will either. Cleveland will give it one big last shot this year and then immediately look to rebuild with a prime pick. That is [unfortunately] why the price was so high. I know I was wrong about what we had to give up (overrating IT's value, underrating Kyrie's 'trade demand' value).

He's not signing a 5 year max deal, though. I don't think there was even a chance of getting it from us (3 year max at most, 4 or 5 years only at a discount), and there's definitely no chance he gets it in CLE or elsewhere. A 3 year deal puts him at ~$97.5 million over three years (assuming a modest cap raise next year, which seems likely). But even then 1st year cap hit is what we really need to worry about as far as resigning Smart goes (which should be the only concern this summer since we have no cap space no matter what. And 2019 Morris comes off the cap sheet, which lightens the lead a bit, and 2020 Horford and Hayward should come off)
I'm bitter.

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2017, 11:15:29 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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Now I'm really glad we traded down for Tatum + LAL/SAC pick vs. Fultz. 
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Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2017, 11:18:42 PM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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If have traded the Brooklyn Pick, Zizic, Crowder and IT for Irving. We will have helped our biggest rival in the east. Given up a chance at a transcendent talent and given them a pick they can use to acquire another star to make them compete with the Warriors or crush us all while destroying our team chemistry... I have never felt this baffled by a trade before, and as much as I trust Ainge in general, this is a flat out awful trade if true.


Lebron is gone my dude. This year is cleveland's last ride.

 Celtic will walk into the finals this year or the next

yup. this is lebrons last year in cleveland.
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #65 on: August 23, 2017, 08:28:39 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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If have traded the Brooklyn Pick, Zizic, Crowder and IT for Irving. We will have helped our biggest rival in the east. Given up a chance at a transcendent talent and given them a pick they can use to acquire another star to make them compete with the Warriors or crush us all while destroying our team chemistry... I have never felt this baffled by a trade before, and as much as I trust Ainge in general, this is a flat out awful trade if true.


Lebron is gone my dude. This year is cleveland's last ride.

 Celtic will walk into the finals this year or the next

yup. this is lebrons last year in cleveland.

Maybe. Or, maybe the Cavs add another star and Lebron decides the Cavs can beat the Warriors.


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #66 on: August 23, 2017, 09:02:52 AM »

Online Granath

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I...um....hate this trade. With a passion. This is probably the first deal of Danny's that I've said that about. I didn't even have a problem with the Raef LaFrentz or Wally Sczerbiak trades. But I'm struggling here.

I can see the intent. Ainge didn't want to "back up the Brinks truck" on an 5'8" defensive liability who would spend most of the next contract in his 30s. At the same time, he couldn't afford to let him go for nothing next year. So this gave him a chance to trade for a better, younger player who he has under contract for two years (and probably can extend) and thus avoids the tax for those two years and can resign Smart. So a lineup of Hayward, Smart, Irving, Tatum, Brown and LAL 2018 is a team that can compete for a decade. We're going to be impossible to defend on the offensive end of the floor - Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Brown (if he progresses) with Horford facilitating - and we're not going to be worse on the defensive end as IT was hopeless on that end of the floor.

I also understand him getting rid of Crowder. In the past few weeks I've posted how there's a minutes crunch especially at the SF/PF positions. Crowder's been a bit of a disruption the last year or so and there may be some questions as to how he'd react in a more limited role coming off the bench. Plus it's another $7m saved and Marcus Morris can fill the defensive role that was Crowder's bread and butter.

At the same time....

To give up Brooklyn's #1 with no protections no option to swap that for LAL's #1 if it was the top pick was just a gross overpay. If it ends up being #1 again this could go down as a massive stinker of a decision along the lines of Bowie over Jordan in '84.

I don't like Irving. I think he's self-centered, either he's the worlds' greatest troller or an idiot and he lacks intensity on the floor. This is not a guy that I have warmed up to.

Crowder could have been a valuable piece. Zizic is the equivalent of a late lottery pick. Those aren't trivial and I don't like them being part of a "throw in" when we already gave so much away.

To win this trade, there's a lot that has to go Danny's way. IT's hip may not get better or his game may drop off substantially as he gets older. Brooklyn's pick may be #6 instead of #1. Irving could end up being as good as Russell Westbrook and that top tier guy to carry us all the way. If those things happen, then Danny wins. But if Brooklyn's pick is #1 (or #2 and LAL is #1), if we don't get by Cleveland, if Irving signs elsewhere after two years, if we don't win an NBA Championship then it's a massive bust of a deal.

Well, a lot of people have been wanting to go all-in on the poker table for a while now. They got their wish. Personally, I'm not feeling good about this one.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #67 on: August 23, 2017, 09:42:44 AM »

Offline Big333223

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Losing IT hurts, but I think Irving is better and will become a loved presence in Boston.

Losing Jae hurts but more minutes for Jaylen and Jayson is good for their development and there's no guarantee Jae's 3 point shooting last season was going to continue, given his history.

Losing Zizic hurts but we don't know what he'll be able to contribute.

Losing that Nets pick hurts but the C's still have the Lakers/Kings pick and the calculus may have changed for that Nets pick given the changes at the bottom of the Eastern conference this coming year.

I think this trade feels bad, but I also think it looks good.

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #68 on: August 23, 2017, 10:04:33 AM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Now I'm really glad we traded down for Tatum + LAL/SAC pick vs. Fultz.
I agree. That trade really disturbed me when it happened.

But now, I don't mind so much.

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #69 on: August 23, 2017, 10:08:22 AM »

Offline boscel33

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I don't think the pick is going to land as high as many do.  I expect it to be in the 7-11 range.  A recent BR article says the same:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2723737-nba-schedule-2017-18-team-by-team-record-predictions-and-playoff-odds

I still would have liked to have seen maybe the Lakers/Philly pick, but am OK with this.  You can only have so many young guys, our core is now Tatum (19), Brown (20), Irving (25), Hayward (27).  Toss in Smart, Yabu, and Rozier and [dang], that's the team to build around. 

That said, I think one more is coming.  Stay tuned!
While the early bird catches the worm, the second mouse gets the cheese!

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #70 on: August 23, 2017, 10:08:35 AM »

Offline td450

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I...um....hate this trade. With a passion. This is probably the first deal of Danny's that I've said that about. I didn't even have a problem with the Raef LaFrentz or Wally Sczerbiak trades. But I'm struggling here.

I can see the intent. Ainge didn't want to "back up the Brinks truck" on an 5'8" defensive liability who would spend most of the next contract in his 30s. At the same time, he couldn't afford to let him go for nothing next year. So this gave him a chance to trade for a better, younger player who he has under contract for two years (and probably can extend) and thus avoids the tax for those two years and can resign Smart. So a lineup of Hayward, Smart, Irving, Tatum, Brown and LAL 2018 is a team that can compete for a decade. We're going to be impossible to defend on the offensive end of the floor - Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Brown (if he progresses) with Horford facilitating - and we're not going to be worse on the defensive end as IT was hopeless on that end of the floor.

I also understand him getting rid of Crowder. In the past few weeks I've posted how there's a minutes crunch especially at the SF/PF positions. Crowder's been a bit of a disruption the last year or so and there may be some questions as to how he'd react in a more limited role coming off the bench. Plus it's another $7m saved and Marcus Morris can fill the defensive role that was Crowder's bread and butter.

At the same time....

To give up Brooklyn's #1 with no protections no option to swap that for LAL's #1 if it was the top pick was just a gross overpay. If it ends up being #1 again this could go down as a massive stinker of a decision along the lines of Bowie over Jordan in '84.

I don't like Irving. I think he's self-centered, either he's the worlds' greatest troller or an idiot and he lacks intensity on the floor. This is not a guy that I have warmed up to.

Crowder could have been a valuable piece. Zizic is the equivalent of a late lottery pick. Those aren't trivial and I don't like them being part of a "throw in" when we already gave so much away.

To win this trade, there's a lot that has to go Danny's way. IT's hip may not get better or his game may drop off substantially as he gets older. Brooklyn's pick may be #6 instead of #1. Irving could end up being as good as Russell Westbrook and that top tier guy to carry us all the way. If those things happen, then Danny wins. But if Brooklyn's pick is #1 (or #2 and LAL is #1), if we don't get by Cleveland, if Irving signs elsewhere after two years, if we don't win an NBA Championship then it's a massive bust of a deal.

Well, a lot of people have been wanting to go all-in on the poker table for a while now. They got their wish. Personally, I'm not feeling good about this one.
This pretty much sums up the situation. All I will add is:

First, we were running out of time. The problems with keeping IT and Crowder were going to start costing the C's as soon as the season started, and these two were going to degrade as tradeable assets. I've been worried for some time that IT's contract just wasn't going to be resolved, and if he didn't start the season strong, things were going to get difficult. Crowder was going to lose significant minutes.

You could argue that there should have been other deals, but we don't know what those might be.

Second, I have to have some faith in Ainge doing his homework. He knows the state of IT's hip, and he did a lot of research into Kyrie's character and coachability. We don't know the insider take on either of those things.

Third, while I'm terrified that the Brooklyn pick might turn into a superstar, I have to accept the actual odds. They seem to have a really smart coach and they may very well not be so terrible next year.

We offloaded the risks of dealing with IT and the uncertainty of the Brooklyn pick to Cleveland. I just hope Irving has the intelligence and character to lead this team all the way.


Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #71 on: August 23, 2017, 10:13:48 AM »

Online Dino Pitino

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Quote
either he's the worlds' greatest troller or an idiot

http://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2017/02/kyrie_irving_admits_science_su.html

Not an idiot, however good of a troller he is.
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Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #72 on: August 23, 2017, 10:18:37 AM »

Offline cman88

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I guess, something to note as well is that while the C's were #1 last season and IT was spectacular....the playoffs proved they were smoke and mirrors. if Rondo was healthy, they likely would've lost to the bulls. they had to have some game 7 heroics to beat the wizards. and then they met the buzzsaw in the cavs and were demolished. Ainge took the gamble of do you trade for the guaranteed superstar now, or put your odds in the BKN-18 pick being a superstar.

is this team better than last year? I would say yes....likely not good enough to unseat the cavs. but could at least make it a series IMO.

I also kind of kept it in the back of my mind to not get attached to anyone on this team. I will miss IT4, but as exciting as the last few years playoff runs have been I knew this is a bridge team for Ainge to get to the next championship

Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #73 on: August 23, 2017, 10:36:05 AM »

Offline angryguy77

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We could have kept all these guys, but it wouldn't matter as we were not getting past Clev or GS for the next couple of years anyway. This wasn't a panic trade and it should help us.



Re: Talk me off the ledge....
« Reply #74 on: August 23, 2017, 10:37:03 AM »

Offline gar

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Kyrie destroyed IT in the playoffs. Any time IT was on him he went to the hole or shot over him. I think that is what did it in Danny's mind. The tapes are pretty devastating. We don't have Avery to cover up for IT on defense so something had to give.