Poll

Do you believe the NBA is fair essentially would they give us 1 and 2

Yes they would if the balls bounce our way
77 (82.8%)
No they wouldn't under any circumstance
16 (17.2%)

Total Members Voted: 93

Author Topic: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick  (Read 2688 times)

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Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #30 on: August 18, 2017, 09:18:14 PM »

Offline rochrist

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 180
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If the lottery is legit, then yeah. If it's, as often rumored, they'll arrange it so we don't.

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #31 on: August 18, 2017, 10:21:28 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Ed Macauley
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  • bammokja
If the lottery is legit, then yeah. If it's, as often rumored, they'll arrange it so we don't.
please read the post immediately preceding yours. on what basis would the nba take away assets from the boston celtics?
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2017, 12:03:24 AM »

Offline BigDogPitbull

  • Al Horford
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I think the lottery is legit now.  I trust Adam Silver.  Always though David Stern was a snake.  I really think the lottery was rigged in the 80's

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2017, 02:47:41 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Ed Macauley
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  • bammokja
I think the lottery is legit now.  I trust Adam Silver.  Always though David Stern was a snake.  I really think the lottery was rigged in the 80's
What is your proof of this?
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2017, 03:29:31 AM »

Offline beantownboy171

  • Kyrie Irving
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Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:

Even if the regular season plays out perfectly and we end up in a scenario that gives us the greatest likelihood of landing #1 and #2. (i.e. Brooklyn has the worst record, LAL has the second worst). And ignore for a moment that this scenario has its on likelihood of not happening at all. Just pretend it already has for the sake of context.

I've taken general stats in college to get my degree. I'm pretty sure i've done this math correctly. Others might know stats better, so I will lay out how i've done my math:

Going into draft night BKN is 25% chance at #1, LAL has 18.8% chance at #2.

BKN is #1:
 25% chance of happening. But if it did it takes their lotto balls out of the equation for #2 or #3. This actually increases the probability of LAL getting #2, given it has already happened. You calculate this by subtracting the probability of BKN getting #2 (21.5%) from 100.

100 - 21.5 = 78.5

Then you divide 100% by 78.5%.

100 / 78.5 = 1.274

And multiply that number (1.274) by LAL's original chance at #2 (18.8%).

18.8 x 1.274 = 23.95%

So that's the good news! Given that BKN gets #1 overall our odds at landing #2 with the LAL pick actually increases under any scenario that both teams are in the lottery. However here is where the math takes a turn for the disheartening. In order to calculate the odds of this happening we have to multiply these two percentages against each other (25% at BKN #1, 23.95% LAL at #2 given that BKN already has gotten the #1).

.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)

So even in the scenario where it is the most likely we receive #1 and #2 (BKN is dead last, LAL is second to last) we only have a 6% chance actually getting both 1 and 2. Those odds drops quickly in other scenarios. Say BKN is second to last, LAL is third to last, the odds of getting 1 and 2 drops to 4%.

And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2

For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.


Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2017, 05:48:28 AM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

  • Ed Macauley
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I'd hope so.

Getting KG and Ray to join Paul Pierce ended TWENTY TWO years of frustration for this team....Bias....Reggie Lewis....

Even with KG, our fateful visit to Utah in 2009 robbed him (and US) of a legitimate shot of back-back titles.

I really believe we're in our REDEMPTION period. We DESERVE this. This is BOSTON's time.

No team other than perhaps Portland has had this amount of misfortune to befall a franchise.

If we get those top two picks then the suffering that Larry, Chief and McHale went through in the late 80s, early 90s AND the suffering that PP34 went through will finally make it even.

Tatum, Jaylen, Horford, IT4 and Hayward are awesome as well as the rest of this team. But let's stockpile some more elite YOUNG talent via the upcoming draft.
Marcus Smart "Impacts Winning." Boston Celtics Coach Brad Stevens

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2017, 06:41:36 AM »

Offline ETNCeltics

  • Gordon Hayward
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You could have just labeled you poll question 'Is the NBA a criminal enterprise?'


Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #37 on: August 19, 2017, 08:11:54 AM »

Offline Sophomore

  • Aron Baynes
  • Posts: 116
  • Tommy Points: 15
Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:

.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)

And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2

TP.
For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #38 on: August 19, 2017, 05:45:23 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Bill Russell
  • ******************************
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Well I think we should frame this by pointing out exactly how unlikely it is that we will end up with the #1 and #2 picks in next years draft:

Even if the regular season plays out perfectly and we end up in a scenario that gives us the greatest likelihood of landing #1 and #2. (i.e. Brooklyn has the worst record, LAL has the second worst). And ignore for a moment that this scenario has its on likelihood of not happening at all. Just pretend it already has for the sake of context.

I've taken general stats in college to get my degree. I'm pretty sure i've done this math correctly. Others might know stats better, so I will lay out how i've done my math:

Going into draft night BKN is 25% chance at #1, LAL has 18.8% chance at #2.

BKN is #1:
 25% chance of happening. But if it did it takes their lotto balls out of the equation for #2 or #3. This actually increases the probability of LAL getting #2, given it has already happened. You calculate this by subtracting the probability of BKN getting #2 (21.5%) from 100.

100 - 21.5 = 78.5

Then you divide 100% by 78.5%.

100 / 78.5 = 1.274

And multiply that number (1.274) by LAL's original chance at #2 (18.8%).

18.8 x 1.274 = 23.95%

So that's the good news! Given that BKN gets #1 overall our odds at landing #2 with the LAL pick actually increases under any scenario that both teams are in the lottery. However here is where the math takes a turn for the disheartening. In order to calculate the odds of this happening we have to multiply these two percentages against each other (25% at BKN #1, 23.95% LAL at #2 given that BKN already has gotten the #1).

.25 x .2395 = .06 (6%)

So even in the scenario where it is the most likely we receive #1 and #2 (BKN is dead last, LAL is second to last) we only have a 6% chance actually getting both 1 and 2. Those odds drops quickly in other scenarios. Say BKN is second to last, LAL is third to last, the odds of getting 1 and 2 drops to 4%.

And these are the percentages given that the regular season has worked out very well for our lottery chances. The likelihood of which cannot be calculated. In any scenario, the likelihood of us losing the #1 pick to the 76ers due to protections will be higher than the likelihood of us landing both #1 and #2

For all these reasons, i think it would be unfair to the NBA to claim that we were not allowed to receive #1 or #2.
Your math is a little off but you got the answer.

Brooklyn wins with 25% chance. That removes 250 balls out of 1000 leaving 750 balls. With LAL having 188 balls you divide 188 by 750 balls left and get slightly over 25%(25.066). You then multiply the two chances to get a 6.266% of landing the top 2 and that is with Brooklyn being the worst team and LA being the 2nd worst, in other words, best case scenario. So 6% is the highest you could expect. If the teams land elsewhere the chances drop to much lower.


Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #39 on: August 19, 2017, 10:43:03 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

  • Ray Allen
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Cleveland will somehow end up with the #1 pick. You know, to make LeBron happy.

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #40 on: August 20, 2017, 02:14:55 PM »

Offline Th3M2n

  • Terry Rozier
  • Posts: 50
  • Tommy Points: 11
The fact 13 of you guys voted "no" like there is some tinfoil conspiracy in the NBA where they could manipulate the lottery or just take draft picks from us, makes me question what is in the water you drunk while growing up...

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #41 on: August 20, 2017, 02:31:18 PM »

Offline eja117

  • Kevin Garnett
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I have serious doubts they'll let us be that much better off than the Lakers, 76ers, Bulls, and Knicks. I'll believe it when I see it

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #42 on: August 20, 2017, 02:32:09 PM »

Offline eja117

  • Kevin Garnett
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It should be noted the Celtics still have not ever moved up in the lottery. Not one time. The best we have ever done is gotten the pick we were supposed to get

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #43 on: August 20, 2017, 09:55:38 PM »

Offline Bobshot

  • Bill Walton
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I suppose Ainge would welcome it, but that's $12M for a couple of top picks--which means roster changes.

Re: Poll: Would the NBA Allow the Celtics to receive the #1 and #2 pick
« Reply #44 on: August 20, 2017, 11:09:54 PM »

Offline eja117

  • Kevin Garnett
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I suppose Ainge would welcome it, but that's $12M for a couple of top picks--which means roster changes.
#3 picks for the rest of eternity? I could go for that.