Who will surprise

[Csfan1984]

What would be a nice surprise would be if BS had the roster rotation down before all star break. Tired of experimenting going on for 80% of the season.

[RJ87]

I feel like Semi Ojeleye is my guy to watch. His defense is NBA ready and if his shooting translates to the NBA, he should be able to carve out a solid role.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I bet it'll be someone we're not expecting. 

[PaulP34]

over or under 12 ppg from Jaylen Brown this year?

I say its over. I predict him to average 16 a game this year

[billysan]

I feel like Semi Ojeleye is my guy to watch. His defense is NBA ready and if his shooting translates to the NBA, he should be able to carve out a solid role.

Don't get me wrong I like the kid. I just don't see him getting minutes ahead of Crowder, Morris or Tatum this season. If Crowder is moved or an injury hits one of them, then he may get a shot but there is still Yabusele . Awful steep odds to even get on the floor.

[ThePaintedArea]

I feel like Semi Ojeleye is my guy to watch. His defense is NBA ready and if his shooting translates to the NBA, he should be able to carve out a solid role.

His shooting looks ready now. His mechanics are picture perfect, and he has NBA 3-pt range. He can shoot off the dribble and can drive. They even played him in the low post in SL, where he showed he could find teammates spotting up. He's got great hops, too...

It's a very good bet that his shooting will translate. I love Crowder, but I think that Semi is ahead of him for the swing slot.


This guy is really good, and he's got a shot at being the steal of the draft.

[bellerephon]

I would be shocked if Semi saw significant time other than in blowouts. A few good summer league games is not enough to convince me he's NBA ready and there are too many good players ahead of him on the depth chart. I expect he will spend most of the season in Maine.

[ThePaintedArea]

I would be shocked if Semi saw significant time other than in blowouts. A few good summer league games is not enough to convince me he's NBA ready and there are too many good players ahead of him on the depth chart. I expect he will spend most of the season in Maine.

What you say is very rational and prudent. But I think that you might indeed be shocked.

There's an opportunity for him, with the lack of experienced bigs and swings. As skillful as Tatum is, Semi is more ready for the Big Show. He's got a great NBA body and athleticism, and his game is tailor-made for today's basketball - and particularly for Boston Celtics basketball.

He'll get a good long look at some point - February? - with at least low rotation minutes.

[loco_91]

I would be shocked if Semi saw significant time other than in blowouts. A few good summer league games is not enough to convince me he's NBA ready and there are too many good players ahead of him on the depth chart. I expect he will spend most of the season in Maine.

What you say is very rational and prudent. But I think that you might indeed be shocked.

There's an opportunity for him, with the lack of experienced bigs and swings. As skillful as Tatum is, Semi is more ready for the Big Show. He's got a great NBA body and athleticism, and his game is tailor-made for today's basketball - and particularly for Boston Celtics basketball.

He'll get a good long look at some point - February? - with at least low rotation minutes.

The problem for Ojeleye is that he's stuck behind so many good wings. Hayward, Crowder, Morris, Brown and Tatum will eat up all the minutes at the 3/4. Plus, all this is assuming that Horford spends all his minutes at the 5, so even Zizic + Baynes are also potential competitors for minutes. And that's not even mentioning Yabu and Nader, who are in a similar boat as Semi.

[Ilikesports17]

over or under 12 ppg from Jaylen Brown this year?

I say its over. I predict him to average 16 a game this year

Thats a ton of points.

[gouki88]

over or under 12 ppg from Jaylen Brown this year?

I say its over. I predict him to average 16 a game this year

Wow, really? More than Kobe averaged in his second year?

[bellerephon]

I don't at all agree that Semi is NBA ready, certainly not more so than Tatum. There's a reason he wasn't drafted in the first round, teams see weaknesses in his game. Looking good in summer league means just a little bit more than nothing, it certainly does not suggest he's NBA ready. His shot looked good in the summer, when there was essentially no defense, I think he'd likely shoot very poorly against an NBA defense. Tatum, on the other hand, has NBA ready offensive skills. No comparison.

[Surferdad]

I don't at all agree that Semi is NBA ready, certainly not more so than Tatum. There's a reason he wasn't drafted in the first round, teams see weaknesses in his game. Looking good in summer league means just a little bit more than nothing, it certainly does not suggest he's NBA ready. His shot looked good in the summer, when there was essentially no defense, I think he'd likely shoot very poorly against an NBA defense. Tatum, on the other hand, has NBA ready offensive skills. No comparison.

Agreed on all points.  Folks tend to fall in love the shiny new draft picks and SL does not help in that regard.  Semi cannot create his own shot and doesn't seem to have great handles.  He's a spot-up shooter and I didn't see a particularly quick release. Great athlete as shown by the Hoops House videos, but he doesn't strike me as having a good feel for the game.  He's also a tweener.

[Granath]

over or under 12 ppg from Jaylen Brown this year?

I say its over. I predict him to average 16 a game this year

I'd say 13-14 but I don't think you're too far off.

Most people don't realize that after the ASG last year Brown averaged about 15 per 36. While I know he won't get 36 mpg I do believe he's in for 28-30 since he's projected to take many of Bradley's minutes. The simple math on that is 11.65 ppg on 28 minutes per game. Feel free to disagree with the minutes but that's what I see Brown getting at this juncture. If he is getting that many minutes it's hard to argue that he'd be worse than his numbers post-ASB.

I also expect him to be a better, more assertive scorer this coming year. Brown averaged 15.6 shot attempts per 100 possessions (11.4 per 36). That's about what Smart averages and Brown isn't going to be just a defensive specialist. Avery Bradley shot 20.9 shots per 100 possessions (15.2 per 36). If Jaylen splits the difference between his rookie season and Bradley's numbers, he'd take 17.2 shot attempts per 100 possessions or about 13.3 per 36. He averaged 1.21 points per shot last year and should be able to increase that number to around 1.25-1.30 with slightly better shooting percentages.

When you do the math it ends up being somewhere between 12.5 and 14ppg. I wouldn't be surprised if it were 14 or even slightly above if he manages to do a better job of getting to the line. Of course, if he isn't ready he won't get 28-30 minutes per game and he won't average 14 ppg.

[ThePaintedArea]

I don't at all agree that Semi is NBA ready, certainly not more so than Tatum.

I want to be very, very clear about something: Tatum is going to be a star. His skills are not merely "god-given" - no one can do what he does, especially at his tender age, without a 95th percentile work ethic. So his future is rosy indeed.

But he has made only token strides up to this point in, for example, giving up the ball - he's got a lot of lectures in front of him about over-dribbling and being aware of the clock and of his teammates. Semi is miles ahead of him in this important area; he's just got an instinctive feel for team basketball.

The big area of growth for Jayson Tatum, however, is on defense - both individual, and, longer-term, team defense.  Semi - astonishingly, I think - is already playing good team defense, and his individual defense is really, really good.

There's a reason he wasn't drafted in the first round, teams see weaknesses in his game.

What weaknesses do you see? Or are you inferring this from his draft position? I'd be far from claiming that he has none...

NBA front offices are the best in the world at evaluating talent; and yet, every year someone slips through the cracks.

Looking good in summer league means just a little bit more than nothing, it certainly does not suggest he's NBA ready.

Well, you give us an important reminder here. If I may add to your point a little bit, I'd advise amateur scouts to ignore SL box scores.  You've got to look at the players in Summer League, how they move and where they move to - how they play basketball, not at highlights, not at shooting streaks.

But if you bear that in mind when watching Summer League play, you can do far more effective scouting than in college ball. It's a standard line that "SL is meaningless"; but while there is truth in that, it's got its limits. Let's not throw out the baby with the bathwater...

His shot looked good in the summer, when there was essentially no defense, I think he'd likely shoot very poorly against an NBA defense.

Frankly, I thought his 3-pt. shot looked flat - he'll need to adjust to the NBA distance.

What makes you say that he'd likely shoot very poorly against an NBA defense? To me it looks like his mechanics are outstanding and his shot-selection is quite good; I didn't see him force anything in Summer League.

Tatum, on the other hand, has NBA ready offensive skills. No comparison.

Shooting skills, yes. He has a wide repertoire of ways to get an open shot, and he can deliver.  I agree on that much; but offense is more than shooting.

This all might sound like I think that Semi is a better player than Jayson. No. In addition to Ojeleye's outstanding work ethic, he's a couple of years ahead in working with coaching and in developing his body.