Celtics draft picks this decade

[fairweatherfan]

The issue I always had with KO was that he was a safe pick and it was apparent that Boston was going to be "tanking", so taking the safe pick made absolutely no sense.  If this was the 2009 draft, then taking KO would have made a lot more sense than taking the flyer on Giannis, but in 2013, there was absolutely no reason for Boston to take a safe pick that could contribute right away that didn't have much of a ceiling.  That draft was the perfect time to take the risky pick because the team was going to be bad so why not shoot for the homerun.

I agree. We were going for either a full or near-full rebuild, depending on whether we'd made up our mind on trading Rondo. That was the spot to take a shot at the high-upside kid.

[saltlover]

The issue I always had with KO was that he was a safe pick and it was apparent that Boston was going to be "tanking", so taking the safe pick made absolutely no sense.  If this was the 2009 draft, then taking KO would have made a lot more sense than taking the flyer on Giannis, but in 2013, there was absolutely no reason for Boston to take a safe pick that could contribute right away that didn't have much of a ceiling.  That draft was the perfect time to take the risky pick because the team was going to be bad so why not shoot for the homerun.

I agree. We were going for either a full or near-full rebuild, depending on whether we'd made up our mind on trading Rondo. That was the spot to take a shot at the high-upside kid.

I disagree.  At the time, Ainge seemed to want to punt for a year while Rondo was out, and then rebuild a team around a healthy Rondo while acquiring a second star (Kevin Love).  Kelly Olynyk had the potential to be a great player to pair with Rondo.  But Ainge was never going Hinkie -- looking to take several years.  He had a franchise PG in the prime of his career (or so he thought at the time).  The goal in June 2013 was to build around Rondo, and the Olynyk pick reflected that.

Did Olynyk live up to Ainge's expectations? On the whole, I would say yes.  He was described as a role player at his opening press conference, and that's what he turned into -- a very good role player.  He was a good pick.  He wasn't the best pick.  But he certainly wasn't the worst (Shabazz Muhammad went right between Kelly and Giannis. Oof). 

[Moranis]

The issue I always had with KO was that he was a safe pick and it was apparent that Boston was going to be "tanking", so taking the safe pick made absolutely no sense.  If this was the 2009 draft, then taking KO would have made a lot more sense than taking the flyer on Giannis, but in 2013, there was absolutely no reason for Boston to take a safe pick that could contribute right away that didn't have much of a ceiling.  That draft was the perfect time to take the risky pick because the team was going to be bad so why not shoot for the homerun.

Seems to me that having something instead of nothing is always better, whether you are a championship team or a lottery team.

Not at all.  Role players are a dime a dozen.  It is very easy to find a KO, it is much more difficult to find a Giannis.  When your team isn't going to be very good and you are picking in the middle of the 1st round, that is the perfect time to take a flyer on a player rather than just add a role player that won't move the needle on a bad team at all.

Players with tons of athleticism and no basketball skills are a dime-a-dozen, too. For every super success story like Giannis there are 99 Gerald Green and Javale McGees

So you feel the bust rate (we'll say after the lottery to try to keep this more fair, although Giannis was predicted to be a lotto pick and KO wasn't) is 99 times higher than the home run rate? I find that amazing considering there are only 60 picks in the draft. And when you subtract the 14 lotto picks you'd have only 46 more picks.

Then you'd have to subtract out all the players that are just decent players...not home runs, but not busts either. 

Drafting not to totally fail doesn't really strike me as the greatest strategy.

The thing is one could argue that Gerald Green and JaVale McGee have had higher peaks than KO will ever have anyway.  So he chose two examples, which actually counter his point, and show exactly why Giannis should have been the pick in that situation especially.

One could also argue that KO had a higher peak than Giannis will ever have, too.  But that doesn't make it true.

KO just finished his age 25 season and averaged 20.5 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 2.0 apg.  Only the apg were a career best and he regressed in a number of categories including his outside shooting from year 3 to 4.  How much better do you reasonably see him getting?

Gerald Green, had a career best season of 28.4 mpg, 15.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.5 apg while shooting 40% from 3 and started 48 games (more than KO has started thus far in his entire career).

JaVale McGee had back to back seasons of over 10 points and right around 8 rebounds a game, he also blocked over 2 shots a game those seasons.  He was 23 and 24 in those seasons.  He played 27.8 and 25.2 mpg in those two seasons and started 120 of 140 games. 

Nothing in KO's career would lead anyone to the conclusion he is going to take a leap as he has basically been the exact same player all 4 years he has been in the league.  And that player has a worse best season then both Green and McGee. 

[Eja117]

The issue I always had with KO was that he was a safe pick and it was apparent that Boston was going to be "tanking", so taking the safe pick made absolutely no sense.  If this was the 2009 draft, then taking KO would have made a lot more sense than taking the flyer on Giannis, but in 2013, there was absolutely no reason for Boston to take a safe pick that could contribute right away that didn't have much of a ceiling.  That draft was the perfect time to take the risky pick because the team was going to be bad so why not shoot for the homerun.

Seems to me that having something instead of nothing is always better, whether you are a championship team or a lottery team.

Not at all.  Role players are a dime a dozen.  It is very easy to find a KO, it is much more difficult to find a Giannis.  When your team isn't going to be very good and you are picking in the middle of the 1st round, that is the perfect time to take a flyer on a player rather than just add a role player that won't move the needle on a bad team at all.

Players with tons of athleticism and no basketball skills are a dime-a-dozen, too. For every super success story like Giannis there are 99 Gerald Green and Javale McGees

So you feel the bust rate (we'll say after the lottery to try to keep this more fair, although Giannis was predicted to be a lotto pick and KO wasn't) is 99 times higher than the home run rate? I find that amazing considering there are only 60 picks in the draft. And when you subtract the 14 lotto picks you'd have only 46 more picks.

Then you'd have to subtract out all the players that are just decent players...not home runs, but not busts either. 

Drafting not to totally fail doesn't really strike me as the greatest strategy.

I mean, if you consider every player that doesn't turn into a Giannis-level player to be a bust, then sure (it's not how I'd define it, but you do you).  It's extremely, extremely rare that a player drafted with athleticism and few basketball skills turns out to be that good. Turning into a end-of-bench player like Green or McGee is much more common

I consider players out of the league to be busts and GG was out of the league for a while. JaVale was allllmmmooossstt out of the league but I don't see him as a bust because he had a good run for a little while and got hurt.

I think the ratio of Giannis to GG or JaVale is definitely better than 1 to 99. Also if the GG scenario is end of the bench than the bar is so low Giannis could have been expected to end up there anyway.  He wasn't exactly Bruno Cabacalo or something.

There's actually an article right now on the front page of CB showing there's about 1.7 franchise players per draft and several all stars.  It's not impossibly difficult to find one. But if you just go for one of the most underwhelming players (over a boom or bust) simply because you're pretty sure he'll make it in the league as a 7th man or something then you'll never get anything.

I mean you could draft 12 KOs in a row or you could draft one Giannis and 11 GGs. I'd rather have the one Giannis.

[Moranis]

The issue I always had with KO was that he was a safe pick and it was apparent that Boston was going to be "tanking", so taking the safe pick made absolutely no sense.  If this was the 2009 draft, then taking KO would have made a lot more sense than taking the flyer on Giannis, but in 2013, there was absolutely no reason for Boston to take a safe pick that could contribute right away that didn't have much of a ceiling.  That draft was the perfect time to take the risky pick because the team was going to be bad so why not shoot for the homerun.

I agree. We were going for either a full or near-full rebuild, depending on whether we'd made up our mind on trading Rondo. That was the spot to take a shot at the high-upside kid.

I disagree.  At the time, Ainge seemed to want to punt for a year while Rondo was out, and then rebuild a team around a healthy Rondo while acquiring a second star (Kevin Love).  Kelly Olynyk had the potential to be a great player to pair with Rondo.  But Ainge was never going Hinkie -- looking to take several years.  He had a franchise PG in the prime of his career (or so he thought at the time).  The goal in June 2013 was to build around Rondo, and the Olynyk pick reflected that.

Did Olynyk live up to Ainge's expectations? On the whole, I would say yes.  He was described as a role player at his opening press conference, and that's what he turned into -- a very good role player.  He was a good pick.  He wasn't the best pick.  But he certainly wasn't the worst (Shabazz Muhammad went right between Kelly and Giannis. Oof).

I don't think Ainge ever wanted to build around Rondo as he wasn't a build around type player (and I've always firmly believed that personally and firmly believed Ainge has always known that).  Love might have been, but Love wasn't on the team and Olynyk wasn't a piece to add to a non-contender, which even with Love Boston was.  As you say, KO was a role player and Ainge knew it.  He never should have drafted a guy that projected at best as a quality role player in that situation with the team he had.  It was a bad pick at the time for that reason.