Celtics draft picks this decade

[TheSundanceKid]

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

It is personal preference but some of those are bogus. Choosing Hood, Parker, Gordon and Harris over Smart is simply bias. Parker has spent most of his career injured, Gordon has worse stats than Smart without any of the defense, Hood and Harris whilst competent are not the difference makers Smart is.

We got Horford using the cap space from renouncing Sullinger, that's not nothing. Just as renouncing KO to get Hayward is not nothing.

Finding 12 players to draft ahead of KO is not likely. Covington is not better than KO, nor is Delladova. You can hide behind preference if you want but stats don't back it up.

[nickagneta]

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

It is personal preference but some of those are bogus. Choosing Hood, Parker, Gordon and Harris over Smart is simply bias. Parker has spent most of his career injured, Gordon has worse stats than Smart without any of the defense, Hood and Harris whilst competent are not the difference makers Smart is.

We got Horford using the cap space from renouncing Sullinger, that's not nothing. Just as renouncing KO to get Hayward is not nothing.

Finding 12 players to draft ahead of KO is not likely. Covington is not better than KO, nor is Delladova. You can hide behind preference if you want but stats don't back it up.

We actually had had plenty of space to sign Horford without letting go of Sully. Horford was signed on the 8th of July while the qualifying offer for Sullinger wasn't renounced until July 11th. Sully was let go with no return.

[TheSundanceKid]

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

It is personal preference but some of those are bogus. Choosing Hood, Parker, Gordon and Harris over Smart is simply bias. Parker has spent most of his career injured, Gordon has worse stats than Smart without any of the defense, Hood and Harris whilst competent are not the difference makers Smart is.

We got Horford using the cap space from renouncing Sullinger, that's not nothing. Just as renouncing KO to get Hayward is not nothing.

Finding 12 players to draft ahead of KO is not likely. Covington is not better than KO, nor is Delladova. You can hide behind preference if you want but stats don't back it up.

We actually had had plenty of space to sign Horford without letting go of Sully. Horford was signed on the 8th of July while the qualifying offer for Sullinger wasn't renounced until July 11th. Sully was let go with no return.

I don't believe that is true. To make the space for both Horford and Durant we would have needed to waive Sully, Zeller, Amir and Jonas. When Durant went to GS we kept Amir and Jonas which meant one of Zeller or Sully needed to be waived. The moratorium ended on the 10th so it makes sense that the Cs only waived Sully on the 11th.

[footey]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

What exactly was the risk in Ainge picking Giannis? Missing out on KO?

Probably the fact he had very little actual talent at the time and was stick thin. He didn't come into the league as the next big thing, he came in as a complete unknown. The Bucks (and many internet fans) went for him because he had  huge metrics. The theory was if you could teach him how to play basketball he could become great, that has been tried with many players and does not have a high success rate.
Given the circumstances around the draft I can understand the rationale for taking a flier on him but I can also understand the reluctance.
It was an extremely weak draft, if people knew what he was going to become he would have gone #1. It's fairly clear that noone knew, just like noone knew Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green would turn out the way they did.

Yeah, let's face it, the outliers are pure luck. Is Chicago's management considered stellar? Just the opposite. Ainge has done so well on trades and average on picks, that is his record. So far.

[Jvalin]

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.

Not necessarily true. IT-AB-Smart are all entering their contract year. It would have been highly unlikely to resign all 3 of them (much less since we signed Hayward).

Assuming that
- AB would still be the odd man out
- we weren't willing to just let him walk

...only difference would have been that Danny would have had more time available to test the market for AB.

my point was that AB wouldn't have needed to be traded.  also, AB wouldn't necessarily be the odd man out if he was kept.  I could very well picture Crowder coming off the bench, not AB.

The thing is, we would have still had to trade one of AB-IT-Smart (most likely one of AB-IT).

If we had kept all 3 of them (plus Hayward obviously), the luxury tax would have been ridiculous.

1. Hayward $31,214,295
2.Thomas $30+ million (??)
3. Horford $28,928,710
4. Bradley $20+ million (??)
5. Smart let's say $11 million (??)
6. Crowder $7,305,825
7. Tatum $6,700,800
8. Brown $5,169,960
9. Rozier $3,050,389
10. Yabu $2,667,600
11. Zizic $1,952,760
12. Nader $1,378,242
13. Semi ~$1.3 million (assuming he signs for the minimum)
14. Theis ~$1.3 million
15. Nets 2018 pick let's say ~$6 million (??)
Jackson $92,857

Total ~158 million

(I'm not even including the Lakers(?)-Celtics pick(s))

Highest payroll in the league right now is $133,248,620 (Cleveland). No way Wyc would have agreed to such a plan (meaning he would then have to pay the tax). Just no way.

Chances are that AB would have been the odd man out. Crowder is on a bargain contract for 3 more years.

but that's next year.  not this year.

again, AB didn't need to be traded for this coming season had the cap not had an unexpected drop due to lost playoff revenue. 

Adding Hayward to this team while keeping AB as the defensive player he is would have made us a very tough match for Cleveland in the sense that with Hayward's playmaking skills and scoring, he could be out there with both AB and Smart in the backcourt which would help stifle Kyrie (pre-trade demand Kyrie) and JR Smith. 

Hayward would also make Lebron work on D much more than what he did having to cover Crowder.  Having either Baynes or Zizic on the floor with Horford should improve the rebounding by having bigger, more solid bodies to block out Thompson and Love.

I'd happily roll into the playoffs with that roster to see how Cleveland dealt with it.  should we get to the finals, that same line-up would be quite possibly the best defense GSW's backcourt would have to deal with.  If we lost AB for nothing after that but made the finals, I could live with that.  Getting Morris for AB just seems like a bit of a step back to me.

Agreed. My point is that letting AB walk would have been an even bigger step back. Hence, I bet we would have traded him regardless of the cap shortfall. To put it another way, unless we were willing to let Bradley walk, we would have had to trade him this year. So realistically speaking, Bradley needed to be traded.

[Vermont Green]

Getting Morris for AB just seems like a bit of a step back to me.

So many moving parts, it is hard to look at this in isolation.  How about you think of it as:

Bradley + Olynyk
for
Hayward + Morris

Do you like that any better?

[BitterJim]

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

It is personal preference but some of those are bogus. Choosing Hood, Parker, Gordon and Harris over Smart is simply bias. Parker has spent most of his career injured, Gordon has worse stats than Smart without any of the defense, Hood and Harris whilst competent are not the difference makers Smart is.

We got Horford using the cap space from renouncing Sullinger, that's not nothing. Just as renouncing KO to get Hayward is not nothing.

Finding 12 players to draft ahead of KO is not likely. Covington is not better than KO, nor is Delladova. You can hide behind preference if you want but stats don't back it up.

We actually had had plenty of space to sign Horford without letting go of Sully. Horford was signed on the 8th of July while the qualifying offer for Sullinger wasn't renounced until July 11th. Sully was let go with no return.

I don't believe that is true. To make the space for both Horford and Durant we would have needed to waive Sully, Zeller, Amir and Jonas. When Durant went to GS we kept Amir and Jonas which meant one of Zeller or Sully needed to be waived. The moratorium ended on the 10th so it makes sense that the Cs only waived Sully on the 11th.

We needed to get rid of either Sully or Zeller, it seems like Zeller was the only one willing to do the 1+1 deal that Ainge likes, while Sully was looking for either longer term security (not gonna happen, plus it would have cut into our cap space this season) or a 1 year "prove it" deal like he signed in Toronto

[nickagneta]

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

It is personal preference but some of those are bogus. Choosing Hood, Parker, Gordon and Harris over Smart is simply bias. Parker has spent most of his career injured, Gordon has worse stats than Smart without any of the defense, Hood and Harris whilst competent are not the difference makers Smart is.

We got Horford using the cap space from renouncing Sullinger, that's not nothing. Just as renouncing KO to get Hayward is not nothing.

Finding 12 players to draft ahead of KO is not likely. Covington is not better than KO, nor is Delladova. You can hide behind preference if you want but stats don't back it up.

We actually had had plenty of space to sign Horford without letting go of Sully. Horford was signed on the 8th of July while the qualifying offer for Sullinger wasn't renounced until July 11th. Sully was let go with no return.

I don't believe that is true. To make the space for both Horford and Durant we would have needed to waive Sully, Zeller, Amir and Jonas. When Durant went to GS we kept Amir and Jonas which meant one of Zeller or Sully needed to be waived. The moratorium ended on the 10th so it makes sense that the Cs only waived Sully on the 11th.

If it is untrue then how did we sign Horford before pulling Sullinger's qualifying offer off the table and renouncing him. Obviously Sully still was on the salary cap as of that signing.

[More Banners]

Pretty solid run of picking NBA players. Mostly role players, but Brown and Tatum could have star upside. Not bad at all.

Not too many gambles on upside lately. Could this be a CBS effect? No Gerald Green/Al Jefferson types I mean, trying to find a star in the middle of the draft.

[mctyson]

So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

Can you please also list the draft slots each player was taken at, the expectations for the average player selected at that spot, the redo your post?

Because otherwise it is impossible to rate it.

[TheSundanceKid]

If it is untrue then how did we sign Horford before pulling Sullinger's qualifying offer off the table and renouncing him. Obviously Sully still was on the salary cap as of that signing.

Because the moratorium only lifted on the 11th. Anything signed before that didn't come into effect until then.

[SHAQATTACK]

Getting Morris for AB just seems like a bit of a step back to me.

So many moving parts, it is hard to look at this in isolation.  How about you think of it as:

Bradley + Olynyk
for
Hayward + Morris

Do you like that any better?

Hayward and Morris ......saved me from an ulcer of max contract Bradley and another year  Femlynk

[saltlover]

Pretty solid run of picking NBA players. Mostly role players, but Brown and Tatum could have star upside. Not bad at all.

Not too many gambles on upside lately. Could this be a CBS effect? No Gerald Green/Al Jefferson types I mean, trying to find a star in the middle of the draft.

I think Rozier was very much an upside gamble, as was Yabusele.  And James Young.

[Boris Badenov]

So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

Can you please also list the draft slots each player was taken at, the expectations for the average player selected at that spot, the redo your post?

Because otherwise it is impossible to rate it.

You could go and look that stuff up yourself and then post it to help everyone else out.

I should know because I pretty much did it in two posts earlier in the thread. But if you're not inclined to do that you could look at my posts, which requires only that you read the thread before posting in it.

[nickagneta]

So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

Can you please also list the draft slots each player was taken at, the expectations for the average player selected at that spot, the redo your post?

Because otherwise it is impossible to rate it.

You could go and look that stuff up yourself and then post it to help everyone else out.

I should know because I pretty much did it in two posts earlier in the thread. But if you're not inclined to do that you could look at my posts, which requires only that you read the thread before posting in it.

TP Boris. I was going to write something similar, though probably less tactful.