Celtics draft picks this decade

[nickagneta]

I think the results show that Ainge has a fairly average drafting record this decade. He hit on Bradley, and maybe Brown and Tatum. He pushed on Sully, Olynyk, Smart, and  Rozier. He hasn't landed one decent 2nd rounder except Moore who really did nothing for our team and blossomed into a rotational player after he left. And he had busts in Johnson, Young, Melo and Hunter.

Of course he has a ton of young talent on the team due to 10 draft picks over the last two years so the jury is still out on them, though Brown and Tatum look like great picks.

So overall, I think he has been pretty average.

[Boris Badenov]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way. 

Here's how it would look for the first rounders, if you ranked by WS and VORP. I'm not saying those are the perfect metrics, but they are metrics.

2010
Avery Bradley #19 (#19, #14)

2011
JaJuan Johnson #27 (#45,  #40)

2012
Jared Sullinger #21 (#10, #8)
Fab Melo #22 (#48, #28)

2013
Kelly Olynyk #13 (#9, #9)

2014
Marcus Smart #6 (#7, #2)
James Young #17 (#32, #33)

2015
Terry Rozier #16 (#28)
R J Hunter #28 (#34)

[Eja117]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

What exactly was the risk in Ainge picking Giannis? Missing out on KO?

[slamtheking]

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.

Not necessarily true. IT-AB-Smart are all entering their contract year. It would have been highly unlikely to resign all 3 of them (much less since we signed Hayward).

Assuming that
- AB would still be the odd man out
- we weren't willing to just let him walk

...only difference would have been that Danny would have had more time available to test the market for AB.

my point was that AB wouldn't have needed to be traded.  also, AB wouldn't necessarily be the odd man out if he was kept.  I could very well picture Crowder coming off the bench, not AB. 

[hwangjini_1]

2010
Avery Bradley
Luke Harangody

2011
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore

2012
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Kris Joseph

2013
Kelly Olynyk
Colton Iverson

2014
Marcus Smart
James Young

2015
Terry Rozier
R J Hunter
Jordan Mickey
Marcus Thornton

2016
Jaylen Brown
Guerschon Yabusele
Ante Zizic
Demetrius Jackson
Abdel Nader
Ben Bentil

2017
Jayson Tatum
Semi Ojeleye
Kadeem Allen
Jabari Bird

Some stats:

- 25 players were selected overall
- From 2010-2015 15 players were selected. Only 2(Smart and Rozier) are still with the team.
- Only one player earned a second contract from the team(Bradley).
- No 2nd round player ever became a rotational player for the Celtics.
- One player has sadly passed away(Fab Melo).
- The Celtics have let 10 players walk or were released for nothing in return.
- 4 players were traded for other players but only Marcus Morris remains on the team from those traded players.
- 8 players have never played in a game for the Celtics.
- 10 players are still with the team though 8 of those players were taken in the last 2 drafts and 2 wouldn't be on the team except for the newly created two way contract roster spot openings.


So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

nick, to this without locating the exact draft location of each of these players and then, comparing each pick to the percentage of players at that pick who make the nba is missing a key point in draft assessment.

plus, is any of this unusual? usual? the norm? for other teams?

those two contexts are crucial before rendering any opinions on the drafts by ainge.

[TheSundanceKid]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

What exactly was the risk in Ainge picking Giannis? Missing out on KO?

Probably the fact he had very little actual talent at the time and was stick thin. He didn't come into the league as the next big thing, he came in as a complete unknown. The Bucks (and many internet fans) went for him because he had  huge metrics. The theory was if you could teach him how to play basketball he could become great, that has been tried with many players and does not have a high success rate.
Given the circumstances around the draft I can understand the rationale for taking a flier on him but I can also understand the reluctance.
It was an extremely weak draft, if people knew what he was going to become he would have gone #1. It's fairly clear that noone knew, just like noone knew Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green would turn out the way they did.

[hwangjini_1]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

What exactly was the risk in Ainge picking Giannis? Missing out on KO?

perhaps some quick research would address your question.

he was seen as high risk due to not playing against credible teams. scuts found it was difficult to project his floor and judge his talent based on low level of competition.

next, he was seen as a project, with possible buy out problems, who might not contribute for 3 to 5 years.

third, some viewed him as skinny and lacking an outside shot. would he be strong enough for the nba? that was one valid question being asked.

i wanted ainge to draft him, but not picking him was not an unreasonable choice. Olly was clearly the safer choice. a number of GMs thought the "bust potential" on antetokounmpo was significant and steered clear of him.

please, if you wish to invoke the tired "olly versus giannis" narratives, at least update them to include the pre-draft scouting evaluations of giannis. to ignore them produces an unfair evaluation of history.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1627273-giannis-adetokunbo-breaking-down-greek-phenoms-2013-nba-draft-stock

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/giannis-adetokoubo

[moiso]

With that draft position, you want to make sure you draft someone who sticks in the league and contributes to your team.  Olynyk was far more of a guarantee than Giannis, no matter how it looks in hindsight.

[BitterJim]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

What exactly was the risk in Ainge picking Giannis? Missing out on KO?

What exactly was the risk in Ainge taking Young? Missing out on Hood?

What exactly was the risk in Ainge taking Fab Melo? Missing out on Miles Plumlee?

[Jvalin]

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.

Not necessarily true. IT-AB-Smart are all entering their contract year. It would have been highly unlikely to resign all 3 of them (much less since we signed Hayward).

Assuming that
- AB would still be the odd man out
- we weren't willing to just let him walk

...only difference would have been that Danny would have had more time available to test the market for AB.

my point was that AB wouldn't have needed to be traded.  also, AB wouldn't necessarily be the odd man out if he was kept.  I could very well picture Crowder coming off the bench, not AB.

The thing is, we would have still had to trade one of AB-IT-Smart (most likely one of AB-IT).

If we had kept all 3 of them (plus Hayward obviously), the luxury tax would have been ridiculous.

1. Hayward $31,214,295
2.Thomas $30+ million (??)
3. Horford $28,928,710
4. Bradley $20+ million (??)
5. Smart let's say $11 million (??)
6. Crowder $7,305,825
7. Tatum $6,700,800
8. Brown $5,169,960
9. Rozier $3,050,389
10. Yabu $2,667,600
11. Zizic $1,952,760
12. Nader $1,378,242
13. Semi ~$1.3 million (assuming he signs for the minimum)
14. Theis ~$1.3 million
15. Nets 2018 pick let's say ~$6 million (??)
Jackson $92,857

Total ~158 million

(I'm not even including the Lakers(?)-Celtics pick(s))

Highest payroll in the league right now is $133,248,620 (Cleveland). No way Wyc would have agreed to such a plan (meaning he would then have to pay the tax). Just no way.

Chances are that AB would have been the odd man out. Crowder is on a bargain contract for 3 more years.

[nickagneta]

2010
Avery Bradley
Luke Harangody

2011
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore

2012
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Kris Joseph

2013
Kelly Olynyk
Colton Iverson

2014
Marcus Smart
James Young

2015
Terry Rozier
R J Hunter
Jordan Mickey
Marcus Thornton

2016
Jaylen Brown
Guerschon Yabusele
Ante Zizic
Demetrius Jackson
Abdel Nader
Ben Bentil

2017
Jayson Tatum
Semi Ojeleye
Kadeem Allen
Jabari Bird

Some stats:

- 25 players were selected overall
- From 2010-2015 15 players were selected. Only 2(Smart and Rozier) are still with the team.
- Only one player earned a second contract from the team(Bradley).
- No 2nd round player ever became a rotational player for the Celtics.
- One player has sadly passed away(Fab Melo).
- The Celtics have let 10 players walk or were released for nothing in return.
- 4 players were traded for other players but only Marcus Morris remains on the team from those traded players.
- 8 players have never played in a game for the Celtics.
- 10 players are still with the team though 8 of those players were taken in the last 2 drafts and 2 wouldn't be on the team except for the newly created two way contract roster spot openings.


So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

nick, to this without locating the exact draft location of each of these players and then, comparing each pick to the percentage of players at that pick who make the nba is missing a key point in draft assessment.

plus, is any of this unusual? usual? the norm? for other teams?

those two contexts are crucial before rendering any opinions on the drafts by ainge.

I never gave an assessment, hwang. Maybe I should have put the draft position, but left that and the massive research you suggest to people who want to do so to make their own assessment.

Players I think outplayed their draft position
Bradley

Players I think played as good as the position they were drafted in
Sully
Olynyk
Smart
Rozier
Brown
Every 2nd rounder

Busts
Johnson
Melo
Young
Hunter

I think that's pretty average especially given the book is still open on Smart, Rozier, Brown, and every rookie currently on the squad(7 out of the 17 players on the roster).

[slamtheking]

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.

Not necessarily true. IT-AB-Smart are all entering their contract year. It would have been highly unlikely to resign all 3 of them (much less since we signed Hayward).

Assuming that
- AB would still be the odd man out
- we weren't willing to just let him walk

...only difference would have been that Danny would have had more time available to test the market for AB.

my point was that AB wouldn't have needed to be traded.  also, AB wouldn't necessarily be the odd man out if he was kept.  I could very well picture Crowder coming off the bench, not AB.

The thing is, we would have still had to trade one of AB-IT-Smart (most likely one of AB-IT).

If we had kept all 3 of them (plus Hayward obviously), the luxury tax would have been ridiculous.

1. Hayward $31,214,295
2.Thomas $30+ million (??)
3. Horford $28,928,710
4. Bradley $20+ million (??)
5. Smart let's say $11 million (??)
6. Crowder $7,305,825
7. Tatum $6,700,800
8. Brown $5,169,960
9. Rozier $3,050,389
10. Yabu $2,667,600
11. Zizic $1,952,760
12. Nader $1,378,242
13. Semi ~$1.3 million (assuming he signs for the minimum)
14. Theis ~$1.3 million
15. Nets 2018 pick let's say ~$6 million (??)
Jackson $92,857

Total ~158 million

(I'm not even including the Lakers(?)-Celtics pick(s))

Highest payroll in the league right now is $133,248,620 (Cleveland). No way Wyc would have agreed to such a plan (meaning he would then have to pay the tax). Just no way.

Chances are that AB would have been the odd man out. Crowder is on a bargain contract for 3 more years.

but that's next year.  not this year.

again, AB didn't need to be traded for this coming season had the cap not had an unexpected drop due to lost playoff revenue. 

Adding Hayward to this team while keeping AB as the defensive player he is would have made us a very tough match for Cleveland in the sense that with Hayward's playmaking skills and scoring, he could be out there with both AB and Smart in the backcourt which would help stifle Kyrie (pre-trade demand Kyrie) and JR Smith. 

Hayward would also make Lebron work on D much more than what he did having to cover Crowder.  Having either Baynes or Zizic on the floor with Horford should improve the rebounding by having bigger, more solid bodies to block out Thompson and Love.

I'd happily roll into the playoffs with that roster to see how Cleveland dealt with it.  should we get to the finals, that same line-up would be quite possibly the best defense GSW's backcourt would have to deal with.  If we lost AB for nothing after that but made the finals, I could live with that.  Getting Morris for AB just seems like a bit of a step back to me.

[slamtheking]

2010
Avery Bradley
Luke Harangody

2011
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore

2012
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Kris Joseph

2013
Kelly Olynyk
Colton Iverson

2014
Marcus Smart
James Young

2015
Terry Rozier
R J Hunter
Jordan Mickey
Marcus Thornton

2016
Jaylen Brown
Guerschon Yabusele
Ante Zizic
Demetrius Jackson
Abdel Nader
Ben Bentil

2017
Jayson Tatum
Semi Ojeleye
Kadeem Allen
Jabari Bird

Some stats:

- 25 players were selected overall
- From 2010-2015 15 players were selected. Only 2(Smart and Rozier) are still with the team.
- Only one player earned a second contract from the team(Bradley).
- No 2nd round player ever became a rotational player for the Celtics.
- One player has sadly passed away(Fab Melo).
- The Celtics have let 10 players walk or were released for nothing in return.
- 4 players were traded for other players but only Marcus Morris remains on the team from those traded players.
- 8 players have never played in a game for the Celtics.
- 10 players are still with the team though 8 of those players were taken in the last 2 drafts and 2 wouldn't be on the team except for the newly created two way contract roster spot openings.


So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

nick, to this without locating the exact draft location of each of these players and then, comparing each pick to the percentage of players at that pick who make the nba is missing a key point in draft assessment.

plus, is any of this unusual? usual? the norm? for other teams?

those two contexts are crucial before rendering any opinions on the drafts by ainge.

I never gave an assessment, hwang. Maybe I should have put the draft position, but left that and the massive research you suggest to people who want to do so to make their own assessment.

Players I think outplayed their draft position
Bradley

Players I think played as good as the position should be based on draft position
Sully
Olynyk
Smart
Rozier
Brown
Every 2nd rounder

Busts
Johnson
Melo
Young
Hunter

I think that's pretty average especially given the book is still open on Smart, Rozier, Brown, and every rookie currently on the squad(7 out of the 17 players on the roster).

I really think Sully outplayed his position easily.  he has the talent to probably be a top 10 player in that draft should he really apply himself.  unfortunately, there lies the rub.

[Moranis]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.

I don't think KO has outperformed his draft slot at all.  I think in a redraft he goes right around the same range if not a little worse (some of it is preference of course, but that draft while lacking top end talent aside from Giannis and maybe Gobert was pretty darn deep and even had the undrafted Covington and Dellavedova in it). 

I don't think Smart goes 6 in a redraft either (Wiggins, Embiid, Jokic, Hood, Harris, Parker, Gordon, and Randle all likely go ahead of him and that doesn't account for LaVine, Capela, or Payton who all might as well). 

Sullinger isn't even in the league anymore, and while he played very well for his draft slot while on the Celtics, Ainge got nothing for him when he left so it wasn't a salvageable draft pick (like say Fab Melo was). 

[hwangjini_1]

2010
Avery Bradley
Luke Harangody

2011
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore

2012
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Kris Joseph

2013
Kelly Olynyk
Colton Iverson

2014
Marcus Smart
James Young

2015
Terry Rozier
R J Hunter
Jordan Mickey
Marcus Thornton

2016
Jaylen Brown
Guerschon Yabusele
Ante Zizic
Demetrius Jackson
Abdel Nader
Ben Bentil

2017
Jayson Tatum
Semi Ojeleye
Kadeem Allen
Jabari Bird

Some stats:

- 25 players were selected overall
- From 2010-2015 15 players were selected. Only 2(Smart and Rozier) are still with the team.
- Only one player earned a second contract from the team(Bradley).
- No 2nd round player ever became a rotational player for the Celtics.
- One player has sadly passed away(Fab Melo).
- The Celtics have let 10 players walk or were released for nothing in return.
- 4 players were traded for other players but only Marcus Morris remains on the team from those traded players.
- 8 players have never played in a game for the Celtics.
- 10 players are still with the team though 8 of those players were taken in the last 2 drafts and 2 wouldn't be on the team except for the newly created two way contract roster spot openings.


So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

nick, to this without locating the exact draft location of each of these players and then, comparing each pick to the percentage of players at that pick who make the nba is missing a key point in draft assessment.

plus, is any of this unusual? usual? the norm? for other teams?

those two contexts are crucial before rendering any opinions on the drafts by ainge.

I never gave an assessment, hwang. Maybe I should have put the draft position, but left that and the massive research you suggest to people who want to do so to make their own assessment.

Players I think outplayed their draft position
Bradley

Players I think played as good as the position they were drafted in
Sully
Olynyk
Smart
Rozier
Brown
Every 2nd rounder

Busts
Johnson
Melo
Young
Hunter

I think that's pretty average especially given the book is still open on Smart, Rozier, Brown, and every rookie currently on the squad(7 out of the 17 players on the roster).

thanks for the update nick. you post good stuff and i enjoy reading it. tp for the hard work.