Celtics draft picks this decade

[nickagneta]

2010
Avery Bradley
Luke Harangody

2011
JaJuan Johnson
E'Twaun Moore

2012
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Kris Joseph

2013
Kelly Olynyk
Colton Iverson

2014
Marcus Smart
James Young

2015
Terry Rozier
R J Hunter
Jordan Mickey
Marcus Thornton

2016
Jaylen Brown
Guerschon Yabusele
Ante Zizic
Demetrius Jackson
Abdel Nader
Ben Bentil

2017
Jayson Tatum
Semi Ojeleye
Kadeem Allen
Jabari Bird

Some stats:

- 25 players were selected overall
- From 2010-2015 15 players were selected. Only 2(Smart and Rozier) are still with the team.
- Only one player earned a second contract from the team(Bradley).
- No 2nd round player ever became a rotational player for the Celtics.
- One player has sadly passed away(Fab Melo).
- The Celtics have let 10 players walk or were released for nothing in return.
- 4 players were traded for other players but only Marcus Morris remains on the team from those traded players.
- 8 players have never played in a game for the Celtics.
- 10 players are still with the team though 8 of those players were taken in the last 2 drafts and 2 wouldn't be on the team except for the newly created two way contract roster spot openings.


So has it been a successful 2010's decade of drafting for Ainge?

[saltlover]

You're missing Nader and Bentil in 2016.

[Somebody]

It hasn't been bad and we got some gems. That's all we can hope for in the crapshoot that's the the draft.

[slamtheking]

fair points but I think you're omitting some considerations that play into what you're critiquing.

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.
- E'twuan Moore may not be with the C's but he's still getting NBA minutes.
- Sully has the talent to play in the league if not the motivation - may still get a contract from some team that could use him.
- Fab - Awful pick and everyone knew it was an awful pick
- Olynyk was let go in order to sign Hayward otherwise he'd still be with the team.  a misnomer to say he was let go for nothing - he's basically gone for Hayward.
- Young - blown pick.  it happens.
- Rozier - shows flashes of promise but has yet to really put it together.  hoping this is the year.
- Hunter - very late pick.  didn't make it.  it happens
- Mickey - would never live up to the Triboy hype.

Ainge had a really good track record of getting second rounders that could play like Gomes, Powe and Big Baby.  Since then, it seems his track record in the second round has been closer to the average GM's performance.

I'm much more interested in seeing how Smart, Brown, Tatum and the '18 Nets and Laker picks (yes, I think we're getting that one and not the Sac/Philly one) turn out when Ainge will be picking high enough to get really good players (theoretically).

[D Dub]

I believe Ainge recognized this poor drafting record and that was a big reason he was drawn to Brad Stevens.

CBS might be the best scout in all of basketball, on any level. 

Our picks since we've under his counsel have been noticeably better. 

[BitterJim]

I believe Ainge recognized this poor drafting record and that was a big reason he was drawn to Brad Stevens.

CBS might be the best scout in all of basketball, on any level. 

Our picks since we've under his counsel have been noticeably better.

They've also been noticeably higher in the draft. Of course we've gotten better players with better picks.

[TheSundanceKid]

Draft position alongside the names would help add some context. Bradley was #15, KO #13, Smart #6, Young #17, Rozier #16, Brown #3, Yab #16, Tatum #3. These are the ones I would expect a decent hit rate with. Of those only Young failed to get into the main rotation, with Tatum and Yab not having played yet. Bradley and KO were cap casualties to get Hayward, not the best circumstance but you can't win everything, I would still call them both successes. Smart is one of our top rotation players, a RFA next year so lets see what happens there. Rozier and Brown have both been impressive. So here Danny has done a good job in my eyes.

Middle of the pack picks like Sully, Melo, Johnson have been hit and miss. Johnson, Melo, Hunter and Mickey have been misses. Sully, Zizic, Ojeleye have been or look like hits.

Late draft Ainge has been pretty successful with guys like Nader and J Bird looking solid. Obviously a lot of garbage there too but Ainge has tended to take guys who are open to going overseas to improve their games in the hope they could be a diamond in the rough.

[Boris Badenov]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

[nickagneta]

You're missing Nader and Bentil in 2016.

Now how could I forget them

[Moranis]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way. 

[Jvalin]

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.

Not necessarily true. IT-AB-Smart are all entering their contract year. It would have been highly unlikely to resign all 3 of them (much less since we signed Hayward).

Assuming that
- AB would still be the odd man out
- we weren't willing to just let him walk

...only difference would have been that Danny would have had more time available to test the market for AB.

[Eddie20]

fair points but I think you're omitting some considerations that play into what you're critiquing.

- if not for the cap shortfall, AB would probably still be with the team this season.  he wouldn't have needed to be traded to fit Hayward.
- E'twuan Moore may not be with the C's but he's still getting NBA minutes.
- Sully has the talent to play in the league if not the motivation - may still get a contract from some team that could use him.
- Fab - Awful pick and everyone knew it was an awful pick
- Olynyk was let go in order to sign Hayward otherwise he'd still be with the team.  a misnomer to say he was let go for nothing - he's basically gone for Hayward.
- Young - blown pick.  it happens.
- Rozier - shows flashes of promise but has yet to really put it together.  hoping this is the year.
- Hunter - very late pick.  didn't make it.  it happens
- Mickey - would never live up to the Triboy hype.

Ainge had a really good track record of getting second rounders that could play like Gomes, Powe and Big Baby.  Since then, it seems his track record in the second round has been closer to the average GM's performance.

I'm much more interested in seeing how Smart, Brown, Tatum and the '18 Nets and Laker picks (yes, I think we're getting that one and not the Sac/Philly one) turn out when Ainge will be picking high enough to get really good players (theoretically).

Poor Triboy still doesn't even like to talk about Mickey. The grieving process is in full effect.

[KGs Knee]

Well, Ainge has managed to draft a legit NBA player pretty much every year.

The fact that a lot of these players are no longer with the team isn't really indicative of Ainge's draft results as much as it it the fact the team has changed course a few times since 2010.

[saltlover]

You're missing Nader and Bentil in 2016.

Now how could I forget them

With the amount of Nader treads over the last 13 months, I'm not exactly sure!

[TheSundanceKid]

TP to Nick for the nice thread topic.

For perspective I've put those picks in context by listing the three guys taken after the one Ainge took. These are the best comps in terms of what other GMs valued in the same draft, at the same slot.

2010
Avery Bradley (James Anderson, Elliot Williams, Craig Brackins)
Luke Harangody (Pape Sy, Willie Warren, Jeremy Evans)

2011
JaJuan Johnson (Norris Cole, Cory Joseph, Jimmy Butler)
E'Twaun Moore (Chukwudiebere Maduabum, Targuy Ngombo, Ater Majok)

2012
Jared Sullinger (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Fab Melo (John Jenkins, Jared Cunningham, Tony Wroten)
Kris Joseph (Ognjen Kuzmic, Furkan Aldemir, Tornike Shengalia)

2013
Kelly Olynyk (Shabazz Muhammed, Giannis, Lucas Noguiera)
Colton Iverson (Arsalan Kazemi, Joffrey Lauvergne, Peyton Siva)

2014
Marcus Smart (Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh)
James Young (Tyler Ennis, Gary Harris, Bruno Caboclo)

2015
Terry Rozier (Rashad Vaughn, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant)
R J Hunter (Chris McCullough, Kevon Looney, Cedi Osman)
Jordan Mickey (Anthony Brown, Willy Hernanogomez, Rakeem Christmas)
Marcus Thornton (Norman Powell, Arturas Gudaitas, Dakari Johnson)

2016
Jaylen Brown (Dragan Bender, Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield)
Guerschon Yabusele (Wade Baldwin, Henry Ellenson, Malik Beasley)
Ante Zizic (Timothe Luwawu, Brice Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz)
Demetrius Jackson (AJ Hammons, Jake Layman, Paul Zipser)

I think the best apples-to-apples comparison is to ask how often Ainge ended up with the best player in the group ("Win"), how many times he ended up missing on someone "(Loss)", and how many times it was a tossup ("Draw").

I suspect that opinions will vary there based on everyone's perceptions and biases, so I won't show my own personal evaluation. But I can say that based on my personal evaluation Ainge has won these picks at about on average rate.

It is fair to say however that his two big losses (Butler and Giannis) are far more substantial than his clear wins (like Bradley).

On the flip side, I think that if you look at the best picks he's had (Brown and Smart), those are certainly not losses and could in fact end up being clear wins in both cases.

I find the better way to judge a draft is if you did a re-draft where would the player Ainge selected be drafted in that redo (need to give it at least 3 seasons I think).  Ainge comes out very average if you do it that way.

Does he? Looking from 2010-14, only 2011 seems to be a down year for Ainge. Bradley has outperformed his draft slot, as have KO and Smart and Sully outperformed his slot in his time in Boston which is all we should care about.

Where Ainge has fallen down is picking the unicorn players like Giannis. As was said at the time though, that was a very risky pick by the Bucks that could very very easily have gone the other way. Giannis could have been another PJIII.

In another year, 2015 could be considered a down year too, although that is more due to the lack of opportunity Rozier has had in his time in the league.