Projected wins for 2017-18 (Pelton)

[The One]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

Those of interest to us:

Celtics - 49.4
Lakers - 33.0
Nets - 29.4

This is a serious glass of cold water on our heads...

[gift]

I could see regression with so many new and young players on the roster. The other side is that the east looks to be so weak right now. I feel like the Celtics could almost win 50 by default.

[JBcat]

Interesting he has the the Hawks and Bulls worse than the Nets in the east with the Pacers and Knicks not far behind.  In the west he has the Lakers ahead of the Suns and Kings.  I'm trying not to be greedy, and will be happy with 1 top 5 pick next year.

I would have thought around 55 wins for us with a large factor being the bottom half of the east is so bad.

Also I have a dark horse for a bad team to go with the teams mentioned above, the Jazz.  Without Hayward in a loaded west I think their win total could drop dramatically this year.

[Tr1boy]

Celtics will win a ton

60 wins not out of question

[tarheelsxxiii]

The Twolves have gotten really good, but they're not winning 50 games out West.  Those youngn's won ~30 games the past 2 seasons; Butler/Teague aren't accounting for +20 more.  Pelton's model is broken. 

Accurate or not, fine with 49 wins for the Celtics.  Unfortunately, I don't see them extending their playoff run beyond another game or two unless Kyrie is traded for pennies on the dollar. 

And man, the West is loaded. 

[Moranis]

I don't buy the win totals in his model at all, but he has most of the teams about where I would expect them to be in the standings.  A few are off, but not by all that much.

[slamtheking]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

Those of interest to us:

Celtics - 49.4
Lakers - 33.0
Nets - 29.4

This is a serious glass of cold water on our heads...

don't break out the towel just yet.  the cold water will be dumped on their heads at the end of the season when everyone can see how bad these predictions were.

BARRING INJURY OR MAJOR TRADES
C's - 57 wins minimum.
Lakers - 25 wins maximum
Nets - 25 wins Maximum
Lakers and Nets both finish with records in the bottom 5 of the league.  Question is where they end up after the lottery.
--> Lakers do have a better roster on paper than the Nets however the strength of the conferences between the West and East will do a tune on the Lakers record this season.  I really suspect they'll be lucky to get 22 wins this season.  Nets only make 25 because a number of teams in the East a weaker this season.

Rest of the bottom feeders in the league:
Atlanta, Chicago, Knicks, Phx, Sac, Indy and Orlando.  Phx and Sac will do better than the Lakers I suspect.  The other teams in the East should do better than the Nets (Atlanta may be the exception) because the Nets have no good, proven players.  the Nets have some decent role players but no one jumps out as a top end talent that can push the team to a win in a close game.

[No Nickname]

Team / Last year's ('16-'17) predicted wins / Actual wins

Boston: 49.8 / 53
Brooklyn: 28.8 / 20
LA Lakers: 24.3 / 26

He was pretty close on all but the Nets.  And it took them going 7-6 to end the season to even get to 20.  Lin is healthy, they have a few new pieces, but they also lost their best player.  I'm predicting 23 wins for them this year.

For the Lakers, I say they stay exactly where they were last year.  26 wins.



 

[clintonwalker]

The Celtics have been on a steady upwards trajectory. This jack wagon conceded we got better but thinks well fall off. He said we'd have fallen off even more without the Hayward move. Ok pal so we've gotten better every year but now it's going to tank now that we're putting it all together? Nah.

[colincb]

1. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.4

After they won 53 games to claim the top seed in the East last season, why aren't the Celtics projected to improve with the addition of Hayward? First, they outperformed their plus-2.6 point differential, which is more typical of a 48-win team. Boston also benefited from opponents shooting 33.2 percent from 3-point range, the league's second-lowest mark. Both categories tend to regress heavily to the mean, so the Celtics would have been in for a steeper decline had they not added Hayward. Still, given that Boston didn't have that same good fortune in the playoffs, the Celtics should be improved when it really counts.

I expect we do better for the same reason as last year. Teams with good closers do better than the expected wins expectation based on net point differential. We also have two closers this season. He still has us as the first seed though.

[TheSundanceKid]

The model predicts the top 5 records to be in the West. And 6 of the top 8. I know the West is strong but they will be beating up on each other a lot. I see both us and Cleveland over 50 wins when all is said and done.

On the other teams I think colincb has it right, good closers win more games than the expected wins and that is where the Nets will fall down. Atlanta and Chicago both have more experience on their rosters which will make a difference at some point in the year. As for the Lakers it does not surprise me to see them overrated now that they are 'relevant' with Ball...

[bdm860]

In an 82 game season, the East has never failed to produce a 50 win team, though it did come close a couple of times (most recently in '03 when the Pistons led the conference with 50 wins).  Has happened twice in the West, but that was way back in the 70's ('70 and '75).

I know LeBron's teams have kinda been trending down during the regular season, 54, 53, 51 wins in 3 of the last 4 years.  Even with 51 wins last year, and all the turmoil in Cleveland, I have a hard time picturing a LeBron team failing to break 50 (assuming he plays at least 70 games).

[Moranis]

The model predicts the top 5 records to be in the West. And 6 of the top 8. I know the West is strong but they will be beating up on each other a lot. I see both us and Cleveland over 50 wins when all is said and done.

On the other teams I think colincb has it right, good closers win more games than the expected wins and that is where the Nets will fall down. Atlanta and Chicago both have more experience on their rosters which will make a difference at some point in the year. As for the Lakers it does not surprise me to see them overrated now that they are 'relevant' with Ball...

I think 5 Eastern teams will be right at or above 50 wins (Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Washington, and Toronto). I would then expect the 5-9 teams to all be in the 40-45 win range.  There is virtually no way the 8th seed in the East has 35.1 wins and can't see the 9th team at 33.2 and barely ahead of 10th (32.2).   I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the order pretty similar to what he has though (Toronto should clearly be ahead of Charlotte in my mind).  Utah is the team that just seems out of place out West with nearly 45 wins and the 8th seed.  that just seems way to high for a team that finished with 51 wins and then lost its best player.  The Clippers also seem high, but that might just be the system not accounting for the inevitable injuries to Blake and Danilo.  The Kings, Suns, and Lakers all have way too many wins, I just don't see any of them that high, though that order might be right. 

[mmmmm]

It never makes sense to me why people try to make these projections this far in advance of the start of the season, when there are still likely to be a lot of roster changes (i.e., Irving trade, anyone?).

Regardless of that, these projections really look pretty bad when it comes to win totals.   

None of this is surprising, because it is all based on that abhorrent trash-heap of a stat, ESPN's RPM.

[Rosco917]

Depends on the true health of IT. If we have the IT of last year, teamed with Hayward, and the potentially improving play of Tatum...54-55 wins isn't out of the question. This team is deep, and an improved team from last year IMO.

Without a healthy IT we have a team that again has one player that can consistently find his shot.