Like I said, there's aspects of his game that I like: he's an elite athlete, his work ethic seems to be there, and he's always had an NBA-ready body, but I don't see the basketball skills yet.
I'm less interested in All-Star appearances, and more interested in how a player helps the team win. While I think that Jaylen has plenty of All-Star potential, what I'm really going to address here is what he does for the team.
First, about an area that seldom contributes much to All-Star selection: Jaylen Brown is a man who was made to play NBA defense. He got thrown into the fire last season, and got a ton of developmental minutes guarding a wide range of players. Tremendous credit goes to Brad Stevens for his patience and foresight, which paid off in the post-season.
He is clearly the successor to Avery Bradley; and given Stevens' track record, I'd predict that Jaylen will be the starter for most of the year - probably on opening day. As a defender, Brown has the advantage over AB of size and length, and therefore of versatility. Boston for the last couple of years has had the smallest backcourt in the league - no more.
Going forward, Jaylen has terrific anticipation and an instinct for the open space; outstanding laterals, super-quick shoulders (leading to steals and deflections; and he has some of the best hands
in the game - fine motor skills aren't usually considered as part of "athletic", but Jaylen makes the case that they should be...).
On offense as a rookie, he was already achieving some impressive results. Since he'll have the ball in his hands often; since he'll be driving into the paint; since he'll be making plays for others (not Avery Bradley's game, needless to say) - what kinds of results was he getting at those things?
First of all, he shot .614 at the rim. Well done. He's concentrated, finishes through contact, and is a gifted improviser. He'll, predictably, have a lot of circus finishes in his future; and he gets to the line.
He had a free-throw rate of .293 FT attempts per FG attempt - that's an outstanding number for a rookie; getting respect from the referees is critical. Now he has to improve his C-minus free throw shooting. His mechanics are beautiful - he just needs reps. Needs to shoot 80%!
What about turnovers? If your game is to the hole, the chances for mistakes are exponentially bigger. How did he do? The best response, I think, is cautious optimism; at any rate he was no turnover machine (12.5%; by the way Isaiah's amazing 10.7% is an unappreciated part of his game). That's pretty good, given the high-risk nature of his game. We'll see if he can maintain or better that as his responsibility ramps up this season.
Jaylen has the reputation around here with some posters of being a poor ball-handler, but I think that that doesn't fit the case, even as it is based in a real observation: actually, he's a brilliant ballhandler who gets ahead of himself and does too much, and needs to, in Jeff Van Gundy's words, "tighten up."
What about assists? We saw some brilliant ones from him this past season, but the total picture was very unimpressive: 7.2% would be a great year for Aron Baynes, but... This is THE critical area for his growth, and what we saw in Utah/Vegas was ample reason for optimism - first of all that it was a priority, second that he made simple plays, and third that he clearly sees his leadership as including getting the whole team involved.
I mentioned his leadership - off the charts.
It's widely recognized that distance shooting opens up the drive; and here, too, the results were excellent, especially for a rookie: .341 for the year is decent, effective - but note that he shot .379 after the All-Star break, and .404 as a starter.
The midrange shooting was poor. If he's going to have the ball more, he'll wind up getting a fair number of those shots. In Summer League he had no trouble creating open midrange jumpers - typically for him, off a wide variety of moves - but in the games I saw, the harvest was small.
I wouldn't bet that Brown will ever lead the team in scoring, but it's only a part of a very well-rounded game. Perhaps that will hurt his All-Star chances. I have to say that I haven't even watched the All-Star game in years, so little it has to do with the real game of basketball played at the highest level. Jaylen Brown has the tools, the mentality, the dedication to be one of the top players in the game. His leadership will emerge this year as he gets the ball in his hands and makes things happen.
... I think Jayson Tatum has a chance to be an elite player in this league. I think "star prospect" when I watch him play.
I do, too. And as his game widens out and includes more of the team, the impact on winning will follow.