Author Topic: Smart an upgrade over Bradley  (Read 15175 times)

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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #90 on: August 10, 2017, 10:31:07 AM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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So Smart should only shoot threes from the left corner.

His right corner % is good, too.

And he should also be shooting from the back of the paint, directly in front of the rim.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2017, 11:42:16 AM by ThePaintedArea »

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #91 on: August 10, 2017, 11:35:43 AM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Fair points, though you're leaving out free throw shooting; Marcus was much better at getting to the line than Avery, and shot grade-A from there (one reason they posted him up so much)
.

Defending a guy that shoots 35% from the field and 28% from the three can't be easy.\

And yet he gets to the line - a lot - anyway.

He shot a free throw for almost exactly every three FG attempts last season (.334, an excellent number; compare to Avery at .120) - and he doesn't use a whole lot of possessions.

Most casual fans aren't including FT shooting when they talk about "shooting", but it's a good way to score points, and Marcus, in addition to taking a lot of trips there, is money when he does: .812 last season, which is grade-A.

That helps the team get in the penalty, so that Isaiah and Jaylen can shoot more free ones, too.  Casual fans focus on shooting and scoring, and are less aware of how a player impacts the whole offense of the team.

If he's going to continue to facilitate out of post-ups, he simply has to get better at putting the ball in the basket.  Casual fans are more focused on his 3-pt shooting, but he was dismal at the rim: .488 is godawful.

The ability to get to the FT line and the way it enhances the efficiency/value of a player's scoring attempts is captured in TS% (which is called "True Shooting" but really is a measure of _scoring_ efficiency, not shooting efficiency).

Yes, it's a valuable stat. But it's also valuable to break it down into its components, to look for the areas that need improving, and to assess what might be possible in the future.  FT shooting%, for example, is a steadier stat year to year, while 3-pt. shooting% is highly variable.

Look, I like Marcus and I want him to succeed as much as any Celtic fan.  And I don't want to give up and say their is no hope for his offense.

I'm going to get on my hobby horse again: FG shooting is only one part of offense. TS% is a bigger part, but still only part of offense. Marcus is already a plus on offense as a whole, despite his woeful true shooting percentage.

Modest improvements in his FG shooting would make a big difference - but, as I pointed out above, what he really needs to do is take better care of the ball. If you miss a shot, there is at least a chance at an offensive board - but turnovers are lost possessions.

The roster has changed. They'll be running a lot of offense through Gordon Hayward, who makes plays for teammates and has a low turnover%. They'll be running offense through Jaylen Brown, who as a rookie already had a lower TOV% than Marcus. I think that this means that Smart has got to get more efficient.

But there is really no point to arguments that try to waive off how bad his scoring offense has been.  It has frankly, been truly, truly horrendous and denial of that reality is silly.

Well, it wouldn't be the most critical part of our society that is suffering from a denial of reality.

In fact, I pointed out his free throw shooting to put a dose of reality in the discussion. And good free throw shooting is a sign that there is hope for improvement in Marcus eFG%. The results so far should have fans temper their expectations, however.  Reasonable goals are:

35% 3-pt. shooting (reasonable, given his corner %s);

.550 at the rim (a stretch, but not unreasonable, given his .517 in the back half of the paint)

12.5 Tov% (reasonable, given that he was at 11.7% the year before).

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #92 on: August 10, 2017, 11:45:26 AM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That number is above league average for threes overall.  But it isn't above league average for corner threes.  It's just a hair below league average for corner threes.

Where do you get your numbers? The Statsmuse chart that hwangjini linked, for instance, has league average for the right corner as 38.9, and the left corner as 38.8 - Marcus is comfortably ahead of both of those.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #93 on: August 10, 2017, 04:18:46 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Marcus is already a plus on offense as a whole, despite his woeful true shooting percentage.

How exactly are you measuring that?   I know of no offensive value metric that has Marcus Smart as net positive for this last season.
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #94 on: August 10, 2017, 06:33:34 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I'm going to get on my hobby horse again: FG shooting is only one part of offense. TS% is a bigger part, but still only part of offense. Marcus is already a plus on offense as a whole, despite his woeful true shooting percentage.

Perhaps, but total shooting percentage does not give your team mates open shots or make the D not to respect you and packing in on D.   I never hear a defender say, I really respectful his total shooting percentage.   It is a cherry picked stat because he is not so hot in some areas to defend your point.

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35% 3-pt. shooting (reasonable, given his corner %s);

Except didn't shoot that save for the end of the season.  He shot 28% for the whole season.   Again, I see this as  cherry picking the stats you like really does not sway no one.  They are stats and I cannot refute them but I am looking at the season as a whole not a hot streak.   I hope it was more than a 20 game hot streak.

He needs to improve his shooting, bottom line.   If he does he could be truly special. 

I think and know that both you and I want him to do well.   I want him to succeed but I am willing to acknowledge he has some areas where some positive growth could help the team.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #95 on: August 10, 2017, 07:28:12 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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Except didn't shoot that save for the end of the season.  He shot 28% for the whole season.   Again, I see this as  cherry picking the stats you like really does not sway no one.  They are stats and I cannot refute them but I am looking at the season as a whole not a hot streak.   I hope it was more than a 20 game hot streak.

It's not like we're cherry picking one month from the middle of the season, what gives it extra significance is that it's how he ended the season. If he's making a breakthrough then it's what we'd see, a hot streak to end a season, and hopefully it's what we still see when next season begins.
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« Reply #96 on: August 11, 2017, 12:10:18 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Marcus is already a plus on offense as a whole, despite his woeful true shooting percentage.

How exactly are you measuring that?   I know of no offensive value metric that has Marcus Smart as net positive for this last season.

For example:

http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

The margin is modest, so we shouldn't go overboard. Note also that his defensive margin is not all that impressive by this stat.

Quote
35% 3-pt. shooting (reasonable, given his corner %s);

Except didn't shoot that save for the end of the season.  He shot 28% for the whole season.   Again, I see this as  cherry picking the stats you like really does not sway no one.  They are stats and I cannot refute them but I am looking at the season as a whole not a hot streak.   I hope it was more than a 20 game hot streak.
 

I think that you have mis-read me.

I was saying that 35% is an attainable goal for him this year, and my justification is that he did better than that from both corners - I was not cherrypicking a hot streak.

As mmmmm rightly points out, his TS% was really, really bad.  I've already called it "woeful" and "dismal" in this thread, and if I keep posting here I'll have to get a thesaurus. 

It's not like 35% would be really, really good either - but he does contribute in a lot of ways, so IF he could make modest improvements in that, cut down his turnovers and get more effective at the rim, he'd be more likely to keep his job.

He has the reputation of being an outstanding defender around here - I've seen posts suggesting that he's a "defensive specialist"! - but he's got a ways to go with his team defense, too.

He needs to improve his shooting, bottom line.   If he does he could be truly special.

I agree completely.  My argument boils down to: the improvement does not need to be huge, given the other ways that he helps you win.

I think and know that both you and I want him to do well.   I want him to succeed but I am willing to acknowledge he has some areas where some positive growth could help the team.

I'd go farther than that: he's got his future with the Celtics at stake this year. 

He's a unique player, and he brings some things that Boston really needs.  In Red Auerbach's term, he's an instigator.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #97 on: August 11, 2017, 02:00:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I could almost live with Smart being a poor three point shooter if he could finish at the rim and hit a 15-20 footer at even a slightly above average rate. But he hasn't. He can make free throws but hasn't been able to make that foul line extended shot. Its frustrating to watch.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #98 on: August 11, 2017, 02:08:05 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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I could almost live with Smart being a poor three point shooter if he could finish at the rim and hit a 15-20 footer at even a slightly above average rate. But he hasn't. He can make free throws but hasn't been able to make that foul line extended shot. Its frustrating to watch.

I agree that finishing at the rim is the most critical part of his shooting to improve.  If I were setting priorities, though, I'd put reducing turnovers even in front of that.

The midrange jumper was a tiny fraction of his shooting, and that is likely to continue - we can assume that the coaching staff likes his number of attempts, and his discipline in this area is perhaps a sign of being coachable.

(He shot only 15% of his shots between 10 feet and the 3-pt line.)
« Last Edit: August 12, 2017, 10:59:18 AM by ThePaintedArea »