Author Topic: Smart an upgrade over Bradley  (Read 15178 times)

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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #75 on: August 09, 2017, 12:19:54 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
NBA.com, basketball-reference, pretty much anywhere these days.

Odd how different sites come up with different numbers. Do you have a site that you think is best?

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #76 on: August 09, 2017, 12:34:19 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
NBA.com, basketball-reference, pretty much anywhere these days.

Odd how different sites come up with different numbers. Do you have a site that you think is best?
If in doubt, I'd probably use NBA.com.
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #77 on: August 09, 2017, 01:08:29 PM »

Offline Dino Pitino

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We've got at least three reasons to be hopeful about Marcus's shooting this coming season. His 3pt% in April and the playoffs; his percentage all year on corner threes; his rising FT%. He's going to keep shooting, make or miss, so we'll get a sense pretty early into the season of whether his shot has really been evolving,
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #78 on: August 09, 2017, 03:48:39 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
i am referring to this shot chart for 2016-17.

https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/28fde82f-74fd-4eb6-955b-37c992fe7ab8
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #79 on: August 09, 2017, 04:18:01 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
i am referring to this shot chart for 2016-17.

https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/28fde82f-74fd-4eb6-955b-37c992fe7ab8

Thanks. Beautiful shot chart.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #80 on: August 09, 2017, 04:30:04 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
NBA.com, basketball-reference, pretty much anywhere these days.

Odd how different sites come up with different numbers. Do you have a site that you think is best?
If in doubt, I'd probably use NBA.com.

Cool, yeah, I like them, too.  I think they need some work on their interface/navigation, but they've got a lot of really interesting data, like charges drawn and other hustle stats.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #81 on: August 09, 2017, 04:30:21 PM »

Offline Chris22

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So Smart should only shoot threes from the left corner.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #82 on: August 09, 2017, 04:38:18 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That's intriguing. Where are you tracking shot data?
i am referring to this shot chart for 2016-17.

https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/28fde82f-74fd-4eb6-955b-37c992fe7ab8

Thanks. Beautiful shot chart.

interesting, looks like most of his terrible shots occur at the top of the 3 pt line, his best is on the left corner, his right side isn't terrible either. So besides the left corner, the top of the 3 to most of the left corners has been bad.

His inside shot isn't terrible either.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #83 on: August 09, 2017, 05:57:29 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I have my doubts that his minutes will increase, or that his role will change very much. Avery, sadly, has departed, but Hayward, Brown, and Tatum will all be getting wing minutes; and even Rozier - who came through in the playoffs when it really counted - will have a case to make for ballhandler minutes.

Smart already was playing starter minutes last season; don't look for an increase.

I think matters who your playing against.   It is one thing to go up against bench players and another starters.  Even if his minutes does not go up playing against one or the other could affect his minutes.

Smart takes more than his share of last minute, end of shot clock and end of the quarter shots.  That can't help his shooting.



Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #84 on: August 09, 2017, 06:41:53 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I have my doubts that his minutes will increase, or that his role will change very much. Avery, sadly, has departed, but Hayward, Brown, and Tatum will all be getting wing minutes; and even Rozier - who came through in the playoffs when it really counted - will have a case to make for ballhandler minutes.

Smart already was playing starter minutes last season; don't look for an increase.

I think matters who your playing against.   It is one thing to go up against bench players and another starters.  Even if his minutes does not go up playing against one or the other could affect his minutes.

Smart takes more than his share of last minute, end of shot clock and end of the quarter shots.  That can't help his shooting.
Marcus doesnt shoot the ball much worse late in the shot clock.
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #85 on: August 09, 2017, 09:02:11 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Marcus doesnt shoot the ball much worse late in the shot clock.

I have seen him miss a ton of rushed shots during the end of quarters and the like.  You know the half court shots that he seems to love taking.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #86 on: August 09, 2017, 11:33:21 PM »

Offline More Banners

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I had been starting to enjoy smart's D more than AB for his more physical game and aggressiveness on steals. I really hope he adds a jumper.

My hope is that Smart starts the season as starting 2, and that Brown takes the job by the all star break. If Brown plays like a 4th star, we could have a shot.

Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #87 on: August 09, 2017, 11:51:48 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Big downgrade for anything involving scoring the ball + defensive rebounding, and a small downgrade - I'd say very small, some might say not at all - for on-ball defense.

Don't forget shooting.  Marcus is not a shooter by any stretch and AB grew into one.

Fair points, though you're leaving out free throw shooting; Marcus was much better at getting to the line than Avery, and shot grade-A from there (one reason they posted him up so much).

Beyond that is that Smart was also a much better facilitator on offense than Avery. As he is on defense, he makes something happen when he comes in the game, keeps balls alive, makes good reads. His increased responsibility last season resulted in more turnovers - that was a problem; but maybe he just needs to get used to it.

People will be watching his 3-pt. shooting, and rightly so.  But look at turnovers and trips to the line also.

Dennis Johnson, anyone?

He's a unique player  with a range of strengths who is weak in shooting (both finishing and from the arc... )

I love Avery Bradley, but but I'm convinced that he was the least necessary of the often targeted trio of Crowder/Smart/Bradley. Oh well.
You must never have watched DJ when he was Smart's age. At 23 and 24 Dennis Johnson was more like Michael Jordan than Marcus Smart. DJ only became the grounded tough bulldog of a player that could facilitate an offense and hit big shots after injuries and age got a hold of him.

I totally concur with this.  DJ was my favorite player when I was young.  He was an athletic freak when he first showed up on those Sonics teams.  He had springs for legs and was so fast.  Rozier reminds me of the young DJ far more than Marcus does.  Especially the way he grabs rebounds.  DJ could elevate and make ridiculous plays above everyone's heads.

Most C's fans seem to only remember DJ when he was much older, playing more of a cerebral, tough & physical game.
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #88 on: August 10, 2017, 12:10:47 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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Fair points, though you're leaving out free throw shooting; Marcus was much better at getting to the line than Avery, and shot grade-A from there (one reason they posted him up so much)
.

Defending a guy that shoots 35% from the field and 28% from the three can't be easy.\

And yet he gets to the line - a lot - anyway.

He shot a free throw for almost exactly every three FG attempts last season (.334, an excellent number; compare to Avery at .120) - and he doesn't use a whole lot of possessions.

Most casual fans aren't including FT shooting when they talk about "shooting", but it's a good way to score points, and Marcus, in addition to taking a lot of trips there, is money when he does: .812 last season, which is grade-A.

That helps the team get in the penalty, so that Isaiah and Jaylen can shoot more free ones, too.  Casual fans focus on shooting and scoring, and are less aware of how a player impacts the whole offense of the team.

If he's going to continue to facilitate out of post-ups, he simply has to get better at putting the ball in the basket.  Casual fans are more focused on his 3-pt shooting, but he was dismal at the rim: .488 is godawful.
The ability to get to the FT line and the way it enhances the efficiency/value of a player's scoring attempts is captured in TS% (which is called "True Shooting" but really is a measure of _scoring_ efficiency, not shooting efficiency).

TS% incorporates points scored by both FTAs as well as FGAs.  So whether a player is efficient because he scores a lot on 3PT shots or because he gets to the line a lot, it incorporates both, appropriately weighted.   League average TS this last year was about .550.

Avery's TS% last season was .548, or right about league-average.
Marcus' TS% last season was .486, which is beyond awful.

I mean, of the 174 players with at least 500 FGA, only 6 players had a lower scoring efficiency than Marcus Smart.  (FWIW, Isaiah had the 9th highest scoring efficiency in the league among that set)

Look, I like Marcus and I want him to succeed as much as any Celtic fan.  And I don't want to give up and say their is no hope for his offense.

But there is really no point to arguments that try to waive off how bad his scoring offense has been.  It has frankly, been truly, truly horrendous and denial of that reality is silly.
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Re: Smart an upgrade over Bradley
« Reply #89 on: August 10, 2017, 12:16:17 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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What's the threshhold for Smart improving offensively where he becomes an upgrade? Shooting 35% from three and 40% overall?
the analysis with smart's shooting may also involve breaking things down a bit. his 3 point shooting from the left, center, and right wings ranged from poor to p--- poor.

but, from the corners he shot over 42%, which is above league average.

CBS needs to position him better in plays to get him open for such shots.

but, yes, aside from the corners, he does need to improve a lot on 3 pointers.

That number is above league average for threes overall.  But it isn't above league average for corner threes.  It's just a hair below league average for corner threes.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.