Smart an upgrade over Bradley

[Moranis]

Dude, the last 24 games including the playoffs means 6 games in April + 18 in the playoffs. He shot over 38 percent. Who are YOU trying to kid by selecting individual games? Even without the 7-10 game, he shot over 34 percent over that stretch. But that game does actually count. You can't just remove it, it happened.

You said over 38% the last 24 games including the playoffs.   I was trying illustrate that he did not shoot this every game.   It still does not hide the fact that he shoot poorly for the majority of the season and you are the one who first cherry picked the last 24 games, when I challenged your assertion that he shot well last season.  You can't have it both ways, bud.   

It's an average for a reason. You can argue he is streaky but arguing against an average doesn't work. He did up his percentages when it mattered most.

However you are right that over the course of a season he was not a good 3 point shooter. He needs to pick his spots better. It starts with improving his driving game, so as much as it is nice to see summer videos of him improving his 3pt shot, I'd rather see him finishing at the rim.

It is somewhat cherry picking to take the last 24 games - why 24, besides that's the number that makes him look the best?

Smart's career 3pt % (regular season + playoffs) is 30.0%.

He is really good, but that's despite being awful at shooting. If you don't allow that his shooting is awful then you can't really make a credible case.

I think it's important to look at the whole picture. Leading up to that "hot streak" in his last 24 games, over a much larger sample his monthly percentages were:

November   29%
December   27%
January    37%
February   28%
March      19%

It's not like he was consistently in the 28% range, then "upped his game when it mattered."

To the contrary, as we got into the end of the season and we were fighting for the best record in the conference, his percentages plummeted.

He then "recovered" for the playoffs. But to my eye, these numbers paint a picture of someone who is both a bad shooter and a really inconsistent one, and I see no evidence at all of improvement over the course of the year even including playoffs.

which is why he would have a lot more value if he just didn't shoot so darn much.  Scale that back to 1 to 2 shots a game instead of 4, and his value all the way around increases. 

[nickagneta]

Don't see how Marcus Smart is an upgrade in any way other than ball handling.

[fairweatherfan]

Don't see how Marcus Smart is an upgrade in any way other than ball handling.

More (aka any) positional versatility on offense and better help defense. Better passer though Bradley set a low bar there. Better at defending stronger players, especially close to the basket.

Big downgrade for anything involving scoring the ball + defensive rebounding, and a small downgrade - I'd say very small, some might say not at all - for on-ball defense.

[ThePaintedArea]

However, our best lineup, by a significant margin, was when we replaced AB with Smart. It had an outstanding +17.1 net rating. It wasn't a small sample size either: at 192 minutes, it was our second most used lineup.

To follow-up my point above, 5-man lineups are not really worth looking at because there are so many combinations, you are bound to find one that confirms your belief (and you can find one that contradicts it). 

For example, if you take the IT/Smart/Horford/Crowder core and sub-in Kelly O for Amir through 100 minutes that 5-man had a -13 net rating, whereas if you then sub-in Bradley for Smart, that new 5-man of IT/Bradley/Horford/Crowder/Olynyk is +13.  Does that make Smart worse than Bradley?

I think the 3-man combinations are a bit more reliable in that the minutes played sample size is larger and you can see who Brad considers to be the core:  Crowder, Horford, IT.  It will be interesting to see how Hayward fits.

Fine points, and your argument for looking at 3-man combinations is sound.

Smart had a fundamentally different role than Bradley on offense - not surprising, since Bradley was a non-playmaker with  a good outside shot, while Smart was the opposite.  Smart was often posting up with the offense spread around him so that he could make plays with cutters (an arrangement that made it possible to play Isaiah off the ball, giving him a break from all the ballhandling).

It seems to me that his role will be similar this year - off the bench, as sixth man.

Jaylen takes Avery's place, Hayward takes Crowder's place, Smart and Crowder come off the bench, Morris starts.

[Ilikesports17]

I dont see Marcus starting.

[Celtics4ever]

Big downgrade for anything involving scoring the ball + defensive rebounding, and a small downgrade - I'd say very small, some might say not at all - for on-ball defense.

Don't forget shooting.  Marcus is not a shooter by any stretch and AB grew into one.

[ThePaintedArea]

Big downgrade for anything involving scoring the ball + defensive rebounding, and a small downgrade - I'd say very small, some might say not at all - for on-ball defense.

Don't forget shooting.  Marcus is not a shooter by any stretch and AB grew into one.

Fair points, though you're leaving out free throw shooting; Marcus was much better at getting to the line than Avery, and shot grade-A from there (one reason they posted him up so much).

Beyond that is that Smart was also a much better facilitator on offense than Avery. As he is on defense, he makes something happen when he comes in the game, keeps balls alive, makes good reads. His increased responsibility last season resulted in more turnovers - that was a problem; but maybe he just needs to get used to it.

People will be watching his 3-pt. shooting, and rightly so.  But look at turnovers and trips to the line also.

Dennis Johnson, anyone?

He's a unique player  with a range of strengths who is weak in shooting (both finishing and from the arc... )

I love Avery Bradley, but but I'm convinced that he was the least necessary of the often targeted trio of Crowder/Smart/Bradley. Oh well.

[mr. dee]

I can't think of a single skill where Smart is an upgrade over Bradley except being bigger and slower, therefore possibly he is better at guarding bigger and slower players.

- Better team and more versatile defender
- Better ball handler and passer
- Better at posting up
- More clutch and impact on the team

[ChillyWilly]

I hope AB kills it in Detriot he seems like a SVG kind of guy.

[ChillyWilly]

I can't think of a single skill where Smart is an upgrade over Bradley except being bigger and slower, therefore possibly he is better at guarding bigger and slower players.

- Better team and more versatile defender
- Better ball handler and passer
- Better at posting up
- More clutch and impact on the team

How do you define "clutch"?
How do you define "impact"?

Marcus better be a better ball handler and passer that's his job.

Marcus is a more versatile defender because he's a different type of defensive player. (still confused why hardcore fans still think they posses same defensive skill set)

AB is an elite on ball defender not my words but those of his peers. Marcus' body lets him match up 2-5 but let's be real does he defend any position at an even all-star level forget elite?

I get why people like Marcus he rips the ball out of everyone's hands. He does a few things a game that make you go "Only MS can do that!" hell I love that too. However when you look at the full body of work to me AB impacts almost every aspect of the game including winning more than Marcus.

With all that said Hayward is an upgrade over Bradley so the Marcus "upgrade" to AB conversation is moot....so why did I type all this? 

[trickybilly]

I can't think of a single skill where Smart is an upgrade over Bradley except being bigger and slower, therefore possibly he is better at guarding bigger and slower players.

- Better team and more versatile defender
- Better ball handler and passer
- Better at posting up
- More clutch and impact on the team

Bam.

[fairweatherfan]

Big downgrade for anything involving scoring the ball + defensive rebounding, and a small downgrade - I'd say very small, some might say not at all - for on-ball defense.

Don't forget shooting.  Marcus is not a shooter by any stretch and AB grew into one.

I thought that was implied in "anything involving scoring the ball". 

[Ilikesports17]

I can't think of a single skill where Smart is an upgrade over Bradley except being bigger and slower, therefore possibly he is better at guarding bigger and slower players.

- Better team and more versatile defender
- Better ball handler and passer
- Better at posting up
- More clutch and impact on the team

How do you define "clutch"?
How do you define "impact"?

Marcus better be a better ball handler and passer that's his job.

Marcus is a more versatile defender because he's a different type of defensive player. (still confused why hardcore fans still think they posses same defensive skill set)

AB is an elite on ball defender not my words but those of his peers. Marcus' body lets him match up 2-5 but let's be real does he defend any position at an even all-star level forget elite?

I get why people like Marcus he rips the ball out of everyone's hands. He does a few things a game that make you go "Only MS can do that!" hell I love that too. However when you look at the full body of work to me AB impacts almost every aspect of the game including winning more than Marcus.

With all that said Hayward is an upgrade over Bradley so the Marcus "upgrade" to AB conversation is moot....so why did I type all this? 

Every single impact stat that I know of favors Marcus Smart.

Impact stats are suspect, but the team does better when Marcus plays than they do when Avery plays.

Marcus defends the 2 at an elite level. No doubt about it.

[droopdog7]

I can't think of a single skill where Smart is an upgrade over Bradley except being bigger and slower, therefore possibly he is better at guarding bigger and slower players.

- Better team and more versatile defender
- Better ball handler and passer
- Better at posting up
- More clutch and impact on the team

How do you define "clutch"?
How do you define "impact"?

Marcus better be a better ball handler and passer that's his job.

Marcus is a more versatile defender because he's a different type of defensive player. (still confused why hardcore fans still think they posses same defensive skill set)

AB is an elite on ball defender not my words but those of his peers. Marcus' body lets him match up 2-5 but let's be real does he defend any position at an even all-star level forget elite?

I get why people like Marcus he rips the ball out of everyone's hands. He does a few things a game that make you go "Only MS can do that!" hell I love that too. However when you look at the full body of work to me AB impacts almost every aspect of the game including winning more than Marcus.

With all that said Hayward is an upgrade over Bradley so the Marcus "upgrade" to AB conversation is moot....so why did I type all this? 

Every single impact stat that I know of favors Marcus Smart.

Impact stats are suspect, but the team does better when Marcus plays than they do when Avery plays.

Marcus defends the 2 at an elite level. No doubt about it.

I don't think Marcus is an elite on ball defender against anyone frankly.  Good, but not elite.  He lacks food speed against many PG's so that's out.  As for SGs, I'd say that his best matchup.  And he works hard.  Just wouldn't call him elite.

[PaulP34]

Marcus Smart wont be on the team after next year.