Author Topic: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.  (Read 6813 times)

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Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2017, 10:19:17 PM »

Offline jacigar

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Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.



Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2017, 10:34:26 PM »

Offline Smitty77

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I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

You do realize that, despite being 8" SHORTER, that Smart still averaged EXACTLY as many offensive rebounds as the seven-foot Olynyk, right??????????

Smitty77

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2017, 10:40:58 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

You do realize that, despite being 8" SHORTER, that Smart still averaged EXACTLY as many offensive rebounds as the seven-foot Olynyk, right??????????

Smitty77

In 40% more playing time...lets keep things in context, shall we?

Career Offensive Rebounds Per 36
Olynyk: 2,4
Smart: 1.3

Career Offensive Rebound Percentage
Olynyk: 7.1%
Smart: 4%

Really not close.

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2017, 10:42:48 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.

Sounds like what people have been saying about Smart for something like three years now. 

He's good at putting up one month of nice shooting.  unfortunately for him it never last much beyond that, and for the remaining months he shoots horribly enough to bring his overall figure for any given season well below average.

This is not hating on Smart, it's just taking off the green glasses and judging him objective for the player that he is, rather then glorifying him into some mythical beast that he isn't. 

I'm not hearing a lot of rumors about teams going out of their way to make offers for Marcus Smart, even though we are always hearing rumors of teams asking about guys like Bradley, Crowder and Brown.  I would suggest there is a reason for that - opposing teams do not value Marcus Smart nearly as much as Celtics fans do.  We (in general) have a romantacised view of how good he really is.  The rest of the league sees the reality of it - he's a role player who can start at a squeeze, but is best as a 6th man providing energy, hustle and defensive versatility off the bench. 
« Last Edit: July 27, 2017, 10:56:21 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2017, 11:03:08 PM »

Offline More Banners

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Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.

Hitting the 3 would make him a 3 and D rotation player, and the market has historically and quite consistently been mid level for such players. 

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2017, 11:17:07 PM »

Offline SCeltic34

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I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

I recognize a lot of the good things Kelly brings, particularly on offense.  I've been a staunch supporter of KO especially last season, where he was fantastic until he went down with injury.  After making improvements over his first 3 seasons, especially on defensive rotations and fouling less, he regressed this past season.  And as mentioned, he's far too inconsistent.

- KO does not offer anything special in terms of a floor spacing big.  As a matter of fact, he only shot 35% from 3 this season and 32% in the playoffs, which are rather disappointing numbers considering that most of his 3-point looks are wide open, uncontested looks.

- You speak of KO's pump fakes, which he uses far too often because he continues to be hesitant on offense.  Occasionally he'll be able to drive to the rim following a pump fake, but equally if not more often he finds himself without the daylight he had for an open shot before pump faking.  He's more effective making quick decisions, especially shooting off the catch without thinking.

- He'll take a charge for the team, which is a plus.  Otherwise, he offers next to nothing in terms of rim protection, and is among the least physical bigs in the NBA. 

- Too slow to do anything but "ice" the pick and roll.  Cannot switch effectively on to smaller players due to his poor lateral movement.  This past postseason he was a major defensive liability at times.

- He is foul prone and gets absolutely no respect from NBA officials.  That's in part due to bad/biased officiating, but more due to the fact that players earn reputations in the league.  If you play without physicality for most of the game, don't be surprised if you're whistled for a foul when you do.  He also has great difficulty staying vertical and contesting shots effectively due to his poor wingspan and lack of athleticism.

- Poor rebounder.  Does not box out.

I have my own set of criticisms of Smart as well, but I prefer him to KO by a pretty large margin.

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2017, 11:33:59 PM »

Offline trickybilly

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Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

So, can we go further and say that the only way we could nab another Marcus Smart level player in free agency next year, is if we let IT walk, which isn't happening. Therefore we may as well sign marcus to the extension now, knowing that even if his production has plateaued he will probably still be great value in year 3 and 4, no?

Seems like a no-brainer. Not sure that 50 million gets it done though.. He may want to go out and have a huge year and ask for something more around the 18-20 million mark..
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Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2017, 12:14:02 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.
For me there are two factors that play into this:

1) Do you expect Crowder to be around next season? If you think there is a good chance that some of the younger guys can replicate his production we might be happy trimming his salary to pay for Smart.

2) Because the tax is calculated at the end of the year we may extend him but not keep the salary. An AD trade may not happen next summer but could happen in season the following year. Of course that doesn't mean we should necessarily extend Smart now but it does lend itself to keeping his salary.

If I could lock him into a good value extension (c.$10m) then I think I would and I'd re-evaluate the roster in the summer.

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2017, 12:15:21 AM »

Offline Rhyso

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I think Smart will get around $14million a year on a 4 year deal. Well worth it imo considering his playoff experience, knowing brads system, and also his team first approach. This guy doesn't care for stats, he cares about winning. Although he may be a glue guy and not an all star yet, the man needs to stay. Danny wont let an asset like him walk, so either he will be traded this season or resigned.

If it's a tax issue, make room and trade a wing (ie crowder/Morris) we already have replacements waiting.

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2017, 12:19:28 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.

Hitting the 3 would make him a 3 and D rotation player, and the market has historically and quite consistently been mid level for such players.

Firstly, this underrates his defense a bit.  He's almost unique in his multi-positional abilities on defense from a guard.  Secondly, this ignores that he is in fact a capable PG, even without any shooting ability.  And finally, it misses that he'll be 24, and teams will be much more willing to bet on his upside.  Avery Bradley was essentially a 3-and-D player when we re-signed him for 40% more than the MLE.  And that worked out great.  40% more than the MLE is approximately the 4-years, $50 million that people here have been talking about.  He's a steal at that price if he can hit the 3.  Abolsute steal.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 12:26:05 AM by saltlover »

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #25 on: July 28, 2017, 12:44:23 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

I recognize a lot of the good things Kelly brings, particularly on offense.  I've been a staunch supporter of KO especially last season, where he was fantastic until he went down with injury.  After making improvements over his first 3 seasons, especially on defensive rotations and fouling less, he regressed this past season.  And as mentioned, he's far too inconsistent.

- KO does not offer anything special in terms of a floor spacing big.  As a matter of fact, he only shot 35% from 3 this season and 32% in the playoffs, which are rather disappointing numbers considering that most of his 3-point looks are wide open, uncontested looks.


- You speak of KO's pump fakes, which he uses far too often because he continues to be hesitant on offense.  Occasionally he'll be able to drive to the rim following a pump fake, but equally if not more often he finds himself without the daylight he had for an open shot before pump faking.  He's more effective making quick decisions, especially shooting off the catch without thinking.

- He'll take a charge for the team, which is a plus.  Otherwise, he offers next to nothing in terms of rim protection, and is among the least physical bigs in the NBA. 

- Too slow to do anything but "ice" the pick and roll.  Cannot switch effectively on to smaller players due to his poor lateral movement.  This past postseason he was a major defensive liability at times.

- He is foul prone and gets absolutely no respect from NBA officials.  That's in part due to bad/biased officiating, but more due to the fact that players earn reputations in the league.  If you play without physicality for most of the game, don't be surprised if you're whistled for a foul when you do.  He also has great difficulty staying vertical and contesting shots effectively due to his poor wingspan and lack of athleticism.

- Poor rebounder.  Does not box out.

I have my own set of criticisms of Smart as well, but I prefer him to KO by a pretty large margin.

Out of all the centers in the NBA who averaged at least 20.0 MIN and 2.0 3PA per game, only 6 of those centers shot 35% or better from three:

* Marc Gasol
* Joel Embiid
* Karl-Anthony Towns
* Demarcus Cousins
* Al Horford
* Kelly Olynyk

That's pretty impressive company. 

If you look at a list of all NBA 7-Footers who shot at least 50% / 35% / 70% that list gets even shorter:

* Pau Gasol
* Jonas Valanciunas
* Karl-Anthony Towns
* Kelly Olynyk

So to say Kelly Olynyk is noting special as a floor spacing big is, I think, selling the guy a little bit short.

In fact out of all the players in the NBA who played at least 20 MPG last season, only four managed to put up Per-36 stats of at least 15 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST, 50% FG, 35% 3PT and 70% FT:

* Kelly Olynyk
* Paul Gasol
* Kevin Durant
* Lebron James

Very impressive company at least, and a good big of evidence to show just how versatile Kelly Olynyk really is. 

By comparison Marcus Smart averaged Per-36 numbers of 12.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 36% FG and 28% 3PT which puts him in a company of about 15 other NBA players.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 01:24:18 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #26 on: July 28, 2017, 05:56:03 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Very impressive company at least, and a good big of evidence to show just how versatile Kelly Olynyk really is. 

Every three or four games, I agree.   The other ones he would vanish and no show.  That is why Ainge let him walk, you can't depend on him.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2017/

All over the place, he can spread the floor but he can also spread on the bench on some nights.  You can throw out the shooting stats and most concede he is a good shooter.   But here is a stat you should look at:

Points        Games
0-9            42
10-19   32
20-29   1

That is right in 42 games in he had 0-9 points.  So one can see over the half the time, he was not so special.   

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #27 on: July 28, 2017, 06:39:55 AM »

Offline bdm860

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Quote
Very impressive company at least, and a good big of evidence to show just how versatile Kelly Olynyk really is. 

Every three or four games, I agree.   The other ones he would vanish and no show.  That is why Ainge let him walk, you can't depend on him.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olynyke01/gamelog/2017/

All over the place, he can spread the floor but he can also spread on the bench on some nights.  You can throw out the shooting stats and most concede he is a good shooter.   But here is a stat you should look at:

Points        Games
0-9            42
10-19   32
20-29   1

That is right in 42 games in he had 0-9 points.  So one can see over the half the time, he was not so special.

While I agree Kelly had a tendency to disappear at times, that stat's not really fair for a guy who only averaged 9 points in 20 minutes per game in the first place.

You'd have to dig a little deeper, like in 75 regular season games Kelly scored less than 5 points 14x's, but in only 6 of those did he play 15 or more minutes.   Same thing in the playoffs, in 18 games played, 4x's he scored less than 5, but only 2 of those times did he play more 15 or more minutes.

Now it's also fair to ask why in some games he got so few minutes, but points scored without regard to his average or minutes played doesn't tell the story here.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #28 on: July 28, 2017, 08:13:03 AM »

Offline The Fawb

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One thing i see that alot of you are missing is that the free agent market next year is very strong, and the cap space is going to be very hard to come by. As a RFA, there is already a disincentive for teams to sign him as well. It looks to me that all of the cap space is going to go to the All star players available next season, and then anyone not getting a max is going to have a very weak market for their services. If role players thought they didn't get what they deserve this offseason, wait til next year. There is going to be very little money to go around, so this will be very beneficial for us on the IT and Marcus Smart front. We will have very little competition for their services. This is why an extension makes little sense unless it is extremely favorable to the C's.

Re: Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.
« Reply #29 on: July 28, 2017, 08:44:03 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

You do realize that, despite being 8" SHORTER, that Smart still averaged EXACTLY as many offensive rebounds as the seven-foot Olynyk, right??????????

Smitty77

In 40% more playing time...lets keep things in context, shall we?

Career Offensive Rebounds Per 36
Olynyk: 2,4
Smart: 1.3

Career Offensive Rebound Percentage
Olynyk: 7.1%
Smart: 4%

Really not close.

Nor should it be when YOU are comparing a center with a PG/SG.  Come on man, this is a WASTE of time!!!  Comparing a center's rebounding with a PG:-)))))))))))))))))))  Priceless!!!

Smitty77