I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.
He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.
Not in a million years...
Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too).
He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.
Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.
Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent. Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles. Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score. Every championship team needs at least one player like this.
The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value. Bad contracts are handed out all the time. One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat. But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.
I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.
IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not.
Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:
* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket
* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game
* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three
* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses
* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup
There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court.
Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency. On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).
Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one. He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards. Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.
There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year. He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.
I recognize a lot of the good things Kelly brings, particularly on offense. I've been a staunch supporter of KO especially last season, where he was fantastic until he went down with injury. After making improvements over his first 3 seasons, especially on defensive rotations and fouling less, he regressed this past season. And as mentioned, he's far too inconsistent.
- KO does not offer anything special in terms of a floor spacing big. As a matter of fact, he only shot 35% from 3 this season and 32% in the playoffs, which are rather disappointing numbers considering that most of his 3-point looks are wide open, uncontested looks.
- You speak of KO's pump fakes, which he uses far too often because he continues to be hesitant on offense. Occasionally he'll be able to drive to the rim following a pump fake, but equally if not more often he finds himself without the daylight he had for an open shot before pump faking. He's more effective making quick decisions, especially shooting off the catch without thinking.
- He'll take a charge for the team, which is a plus. Otherwise, he offers next to nothing in terms of rim protection, and is among the least physical bigs in the NBA.
- Too slow to do anything but "ice" the pick and roll. Cannot switch effectively on to smaller players due to his poor lateral movement. This past postseason he was a major defensive liability at times.
- He is foul prone and gets absolutely no respect from NBA officials. That's in part due to bad/biased officiating, but more due to the fact that players earn reputations in the league. If you play without physicality for most of the game, don't be surprised if you're whistled for a foul when you do. He also has great difficulty staying vertical and contesting shots effectively due to his poor wingspan and lack of athleticism.
- Poor rebounder. Does not box out.
I have my own set of criticisms of Smart as well, but I prefer him to KO by a pretty large margin.