Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.

[Smitty77]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.

I recognize a lot of the good things Kelly brings, particularly on offense.  I've been a staunch supporter of KO especially last season, where he was fantastic until he went down with injury.  After making improvements over his first 3 seasons, especially on defensive rotations and fouling less, he regressed this past season.  And as mentioned, he's far too inconsistent.

- KO does not offer anything special in terms of a floor spacing big.  As a matter of fact, he only shot 35% from 3 this season and 32% in the playoffs, which are rather disappointing numbers considering that most of his 3-point looks are wide open, uncontested looks.

- You speak of KO's pump fakes, which he uses far too often because he continues to be hesitant on offense.  Occasionally he'll be able to drive to the rim following a pump fake, but equally if not more often he finds himself without the daylight he had for an open shot before pump faking.  He's more effective making quick decisions, especially shooting off the catch without thinking.

- He'll take a charge for the team, which is a plus.  Otherwise, he offers next to nothing in terms of rim protection, and is among the least physical bigs in the NBA. 

- Too slow to do anything but "ice" the pick and roll.  Cannot switch effectively on to smaller players due to his poor lateral movement.  This past postseason he was a major defensive liability at times.

- He is foul prone and gets absolutely no respect from NBA officials.  That's in part due to bad/biased officiating, but more due to the fact that players earn reputations in the league.  If you play without physicality for most of the game, don't be surprised if you're whistled for a foul when you do.  He also has great difficulty staying vertical and contesting shots effectively due to his poor wingspan and lack of athleticism.

- Poor rebounder.  Does not box out.

I have my own set of criticisms of Smart as well, but I prefer him to KO by a pretty large margin.

Out of all the centers in the NBA who averaged at least 20.0 MIN and 2.0 3PA per game, only 6 of those centers shot 35% or better from three:

* Marc Gasol
* Joel Embiid
* Karl-Anthony Towns
* Demarcus Cousins
* Al Horford
* Kelly Olynyk

That's pretty impressive company. 

If you look at a list of all NBA 7-Footers who shot at least 50% / 35% / 70% that list gets even shorter:

* Pau Gasol
* Jonas Valanciunas
* Karl-Anthony Towns
* Kelly Olynyk

So to say Kelly Olynyk is noting special as a floor spacing big is, I think, selling the guy a little bit short.

In fact out of all the players in the NBA who played at least 20 MPG last season, only four managed to put up Per-36 stats of at least 15 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST, 50% FG, 35% 3PT and 70% FT:

* Kelly Olynyk
* Paul Gasol
* Kevin Durant
* Lebron James

Very impressive company at least, and a good big of evidence to show just how versatile Kelly Olynyk really is. 

By comparison Marcus Smart averaged Per-36 numbers of 12.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 36% FG and 28% 3PT which puts him in a company of about 15 other NBA players.

Kelly DOES space the floor!!!  That being said, he is one of the SOFEST seven footers in the league and arguably the LEAST athletic.  He is a TERRIBLE one-on-one defender!!!  Yes, he is a heady defender that covers for some of that, but even that canNOT hide his short arms and his utter lack of athleticism AND toughness.  Best wishes to you Kelly.

Smitty77

[Smitty77]

Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.

Hitting the 3 would make him a 3 and D rotation player, and the market has historically and quite consistently been mid level for such players.

Ryan Kelly and Demarre Carroll just said hello.

Smitty77

[td450]

Smart was outstanding  on defence late in the season. His 3point % was .286 from Oct thru Mar.and .385 for April thru play offs and end of season. if he can hold that level ,he is a steal  at 12m/yr.

Hitting the 3 would make him a 3 and D rotation player, and the market has historically and quite consistently been mid level for such players.

Firstly, this underrates his defense a bit.  He's almost unique in his multi-positional abilities on defense from a guard.  Secondly, this ignores that he is in fact a capable PG, even without any shooting ability.  And finally, it misses that he'll be 24, and teams will be much more willing to bet on his upside.  Avery Bradley was essentially a 3-and-D player when we re-signed him for 40% more than the MLE.  And that worked out great.  40% more than the MLE is approximately the 4-years, $50 million that people here have been talking about.  He's a steal at that price if he can hit the 3.  Abolsute steal.

My concern is that while he does have unique multi-positional abilities to defend, most of the really great stuff he does on defense is him playing big in the lane. He has elite anticipation, and does move his feet well, but he is not Avery Bradley. The elite guards of the league with range don't have much trouble with him. He just doesn't have Avery's recovery speed.

He'll make incredible plays in passing lanes. He'll take charges, and block shots and spot cover power forwards, but he can't body up the more elite point guards. He's better covering a small forward than a good point guard.

[Moranis]

ESPN projected Smart's salary next season at 13 million.  So that is probably something like a 4 year 55 million deal (something in that neighborhood anyway). 

[trickybilly]

One thing i see that alot of you are missing is that the free agent market next year is very strong, and the cap space is going to be very hard to come by. As a RFA, there is already a disincentive for teams to sign him as well. It looks to me that all of the cap space is going to go to the All star players available next season, and then anyone not getting a max is going to have a very weak market for their services. If role players thought they didn't get what they deserve this offseason, wait til next year. There is going to be very little money to go around, so this will be very beneficial for us on the IT and Marcus Smart front. We will have very little competition for their services. This is why an extension makes little sense unless it is extremely favorable to the C's.

Not quite. Next years dearth of cap space really only applies to about 7 teams. All others have, or can very easily create space.. Especially for a mid-level $ guy like Marcus with more ceiling, he will be overpaid barring a disaster season.

IT? Yeah, not much competition for him at his $ range

[trickybilly]

One thing i see that alot of you are missing is that the free agent market next year is very strong, and the cap space is going to be very hard to come by. As a RFA, there is already a disincentive for teams to sign him as well. It looks to me that all of the cap space is going to go to the All star players available next season, and then anyone not getting a max is going to have a very weak market for their services. If role players thought they didn't get what they deserve this offseason, wait til next year. There is going to be very little money to go around, so this will be very beneficial for us on the IT and Marcus Smart front. We will have very little competition for their services. This is why an extension makes little sense unless it is extremely favorable to the C's.

Not quite. Next years dearth of cap space really only applies to about 7 teams. All others have, or can very easily create space.. Especially for a mid-level $ guy like Marcus with more ceiling, he will be overpaid barring a disaster season.

IT? Yeah, not much competition for him at his $ range

Also, I have no idea why people keep saying next years FA class will be good.

After LeBron and Russ choose, you're pretty much left only with Avery, IT, Boogie, and maybe favors as guys getting max or near max....

[td450]

His salary range could vary wildly based on where he stands competitively with Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier.

Best case has him coming to camp with a rebuilt shot, outplaying both and making significant improvements to his offense. He might be worth something approaching $20M under those circumstances.

Worst case is that he makes little to no improvement offensively, while Brown and Rozier both improve significantly(and both should). Tatum also plays very well, so Hayward takes some guard minutes too. His minutes drop to 15-20 per night. He's worth less than $10M

[vjcsmoke]

Smart's lack of offense holds him back a lot.  Right now his closest comp in my mind is Roberson who got a deal roughly 10m per year.  Smart is not a star but he is one of the first players you want off the bench because of his defense and toughness. 

Smart's ball movement and ball control is also good and a net positive but not elite.  If he were more of a threat on offense, the ball movement, and offensive spacing would become a lot better.  But right now, I'd say he has very little value offensively and his shot selection is also still pretty poor.  If he comes back this year and hits 35% from 3 and 45% from the field he would become a pretty lethal 2-way player.  But I'm not holding my breath.  He needs to start showing us that kind of ability in games.  Hopefully this year Marcus will unveil a much improved shooting stroke?

[loco_91]

From a fan's perspective, it doesn't really matter how much we pay him. We aren't going to have any cap flexibility anyway, probably until 2021. If we balk at paying Smart, we cannot take that money and use it on someone else. So it's just a matter of how much LT Wyc pays.

I'd actually like to overpay in order to get a team option. Something like 3yrs/$55m with a  4th year team option. Try to arrange a similar deal with IT-- 3 year max + team option or 3 year near-max with no option. That way we can clear Horford, IT and Smart all at once and maximize our flexibility in 2021... when AD is a UFA.

[Moranis]

One thing i see that alot of you are missing is that the free agent market next year is very strong, and the cap space is going to be very hard to come by. As a RFA, there is already a disincentive for teams to sign him as well. It looks to me that all of the cap space is going to go to the All star players available next season, and then anyone not getting a max is going to have a very weak market for their services. If role players thought they didn't get what they deserve this offseason, wait til next year. There is going to be very little money to go around, so this will be very beneficial for us on the IT and Marcus Smart front. We will have very little competition for their services. This is why an extension makes little sense unless it is extremely favorable to the C's.

Not quite. Next years dearth of cap space really only applies to about 7 teams. All others have, or can very easily create space.. Especially for a mid-level $ guy like Marcus with more ceiling, he will be overpaid barring a disaster season.

IT? Yeah, not much competition for him at his $ range

Also, I have no idea why people keep saying next years FA class will be good.

After LeBron and Russ choose, you're pretty much left only with Avery, IT, Boogie, and maybe favors as guys getting max or near max....

James, Westbrook, George, Paul, Durant, D. Jordan, Thomas, Cousins.  That is 8 surefire max or near max players.  Obviously many of them could elect to re-sign and do so very early, but they are all technically free agents (or almost assuredly will opt out of their players options if they have one). 

[jay]

Nobody offered a huge load of cash to Nerlens Noel or JaMychal Green this summer, and now their teams might get them cheaper than previously thought.

If we don't extend Smart, what are the chances someone comes in with a $20 mil per year offer or close like Biyombo or Evan Turner? We would probably have to let him walk over luxury tax issues. If we can convince him to extend for $13 or $14 mil it might be a good idea.

[Atzar]

Marcus Smart is almost impossible to put a value on for me.

On one hand, you look at his stats and he sucks.  That's not exaggeration; he sucks.  Can't put the ball in the basket, doesn't do anything else well enough to make up for it.

On the other hand, you watch him play and he can change games when he's on the court.  He's capable of taking over for short stretches, and if there's a loose ball in crunch time then he either caused it or got it.  Very good defender who can play bigger than his size. 

Like I said, I don't know how to evaluate that.  Is he ideally a sort of mini-Draymond?  A fourth starter who would fail as a go-to offensive option, but thrives playing alongside elite scorers where he can focus on doing everything else.  Or is he just a defensive-minded bench guard?  Obviously the equation changes if he develops an adequate skill on offense, but right now, I wouldn't know what to pay him. 

[Mike Pemulis]

Has a non-star player ever taken less money to add a no-trade clause? Would a GM laugh at the question?
Example: Marcus says, I like being a celtic and don't want to leave. I'll take 33M over 4 years if you extend me and give me a no trade clause. I'll be the last man off the bench if you want. Just let me play here.

[jambr380]

Has a non-star player ever taken less money to add a no-trade clause? Would a GM laugh at the question?
Example: Marcus says, I like being a celtic and don't want to leave. I'll take 33M over 4 years if you extend me and give me a no trade clause. I'll be the last man off the bench if you want. Just let me play here.

Seems a little low on the salary side of things, but I do think Smart genuinely likes playing for the Celtics. He has been a part of the team when they were awful (they semi-tanked for him, afterall) to being a legitimate EC, possibly championship, contender. He does not strike me as the type of player to go join up with the Nets or Kings just because of a few extra dollars. Having his RFA rights should hopefully benefit us.

Hopefully we will be able to keep him - $12m/yr seems fair - he is the type of player every championship-level team needs. If he can continue to gradually improve his offense, he will be a near all-star; if not, he is still a 30mpg player. I am actually okay if he holds off on his improvement until AFTER we sign him 

[saltlover]

Has a non-star player ever taken less money to add a no-trade clause? Would a GM laugh at the question?
Example: Marcus says, I like being a celtic and don't want to leave. I'll take 33M over 4 years if you extend me and give me a no trade clause. I'll be the last man off the bench if you want. Just let me play here.

Smart is not eligible for a no-trade clause.  You have to be in the league for at least 8 seasons, at least 4 of which have been with the team that is signing you to a new contract with a no-trade clause (in other words, you can't add one in to a pre-existing contract).