Marcus Smart Extension Discussion - Deadline 17 October.

[trickybilly]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

[saltlover]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

[RJ87]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

[JHTruth]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

Smart is a valuable player, but I don't think his shooting and finishing will ever get much better. He is what he is, a nice defensive player off the bench that provide energy and toughness but that's really about it. Unless he tanks in FA, I expect him to be on another team next year..

[mctyson]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

[RJ87]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

 

Is he? Potential and what ifs aside, is he really? They're both role players that are limited. One is 7 feet tall and can hit a 3, there's always gonna be a market for that.

I've compared his contract situation to Andre Roberson. Roberson turned down a 4 year, $48m extension offer from OKC and then ended up signing a 3 year, $30m deal in the offseason.

[saltlover]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

Smart is a valuable player, but I don't think his shooting and finishing will ever get much better. He is what he is, a nice defensive player off the bench that provide energy and toughness but that's really about it. Unless he tanks in FA, I expect him to be on another team next year..

I mean, that's the question -- is he what he is, or is there something more?  Shooting can be improved, within limits, but it can be.  If he shows up to training camp with a more repeatable shop that holds up in scrimmages and pre-season games, that's something that coaching and player personnel staffs will notice.  He took a huge step forward last year in terms of being able to run an offense from the point, which I think you under-recognize.  If he's able to add even league average 3-point shooting to that, then along with his defense, he's a borderline star.

I'm not saying he WILL add that ability, but he CAN.  And if the Celtics think he's approaching the WILL side of that statement, then he can still be signed for a bargain, until he DOES add that ability, at which point it's too late.

Again, I think that the most likely course of action is to head to free agency next year and let the market decide.  But he has the potential to be a Curry-like bargain for four years.  I feel the decision on Smart will be more difficult than the one for IT.

[Surferdad]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

Smart is a valuable player, but I don't think his shooting and finishing will ever get much better. He is what he is, a nice defensive player off the bench that provide energy and toughness but that's really about it. Unless he tanks in FA, I expect him to be on another team next year..

I mean, that's the question -- is he what he is, or is there something more?  Shooting can be improved, within limits, but it can be.  If he shows up to training camp with a more repeatable shop that holds up in scrimmages and pre-season games, that's something that coaching and player personnel staffs will notice.  He took a huge step forward last year in terms of being able to run an offense from the point, which I think you under-recognize.  If he's able to add even league average 3-point shooting to that, then along with his defense, he's a borderline star.

I'm not saying he WILL add that ability, but he CAN.  And if the Celtics think he's approaching the WILL side of that statement, then he can still be signed for a bargain, until he DOES add that ability, at which point it's too late.

Again, I think that the most likely course of action is to head to free agency next year and let the market decide.  But he has the potential to be a Curry-like bargain for four years.  I feel the decision on Smart will be more difficult than the one for IT.

What saltlover talks cap, people listen.   

So what kind of QO can they offer, and do they need to do that before Oct 17 or just wait until after the season, like KO?

[crimson_stallion]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

[saltlover]

Essentially you can make a decision now, as there won't be much more substantial basketball to make a judgement.

I say yes, mainly because these rookie extensions become super valuable 99 times out of 100 (although that might be wrong). I'd say around 12 million. Not sure what that would mean for cap flexibility next summer...

Cap flexibility doesn't exist.  We are over the cap even if we let Smart and IT both walk (and we get a reasonably good pick from the Nets -- top 8 or so.)

The issue is the tax.  We are virtually a lock to be over the tax just by resigning IT, unless you are one of the crowd that thinks the Celtics would actually let him walk.  So every dollar of Smart's contract will carry an additional tax penalty, probably on average a bit over a 2:1 rate.  I would love it if the Celtics extended him, because he's one of my favorite players.  I think the more likely tactic is to extend him a QO, hope he gets squeezed out of the free agent market, and have him accept the QO.  Then potentially resign him again the following summer when a couple of other salaries come off the books (Rozier, Morris), and maybe Horford will opt out after three years to sign for a 5-year deal at less per year.

Unless the Celtics think Smart is finally going to blow up this year -- if they like what they see in camp, extend him and hope ownership buys in to a large bill.  Because Smart at his full potential makes us a true championship level team.  If he can finally score with just average efficiency, he's the player that gets us by Golden State.

Smart is a valuable player, but I don't think his shooting and finishing will ever get much better. He is what he is, a nice defensive player off the bench that provide energy and toughness but that's really about it. Unless he tanks in FA, I expect him to be on another team next year..

I mean, that's the question -- is he what he is, or is there something more?  Shooting can be improved, within limits, but it can be.  If he shows up to training camp with a more repeatable shop that holds up in scrimmages and pre-season games, that's something that coaching and player personnel staffs will notice.  He took a huge step forward last year in terms of being able to run an offense from the point, which I think you under-recognize.  If he's able to add even league average 3-point shooting to that, then along with his defense, he's a borderline star.

I'm not saying he WILL add that ability, but he CAN.  And if the Celtics think he's approaching the WILL side of that statement, then he can still be signed for a bargain, until he DOES add that ability, at which point it's too late.

Again, I think that the most likely course of action is to head to free agency next year and let the market decide.  But he has the potential to be a Curry-like bargain for four years.  I feel the decision on Smart will be more difficult than the one for IT.

What saltlover talks cap, people listen.   

So what kind of QO can they offer, and do they need to do that before Oct 17 or just wait until after the season, like KO?

A qualifying offer would be made after the season, for 1 year at a shade over $6 million.

[SCeltic34]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

[footey]

I doubt Smart is offered a big FA contract, so I say we wait it out with him, and be prepared to match or let him walk. Foolish to lock him in early IMO. There is much cap $$ to chase FA in 2018, and mid level non-star guys like Smart will suffer for it.

[timpiker]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

I seriously question if u even watch many games.  Marcus Smart is invaluable to this team

[gouki88]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

You really hate Smart don't you?

It's clouding your judgement a bit here.

[crimson_stallion]

I'd offer 4 years, $42 million. My absolute cap would be 4 years, $50 million. Unless he comes in with a substantially improved offensive game, I don't think he'd get a more lucrative offer in restricted free agency.

He is worth more the Kelly Olynyk.

Not in a million years...

Kelly Olynyk is a superior player in absolute every aspect of the game except for defense (and he's actually pretty good at that too). 

He may even be a better passer and ball handler then Smart despite the fact that he is a center and Smart is a PG.

Respectfully disagree, even as a fan of much of your posts/insights because they're always well-written and well-reasoned.

Kelly Olynyk is consistenly inconsistent.  Smart on the other hand can always be counted on every game for at least two things - elite defense and intangibles.  Even when he misses all of his shots, he impacts the game by doing the things that don't show up on the box score.  Every championship team needs at least one player like this. 

The actual number on the contract doesn't necessarily indicate a player's value.  Bad contracts are handed out all the time.  One could certainly argue that Smart is not worth 4 years $50 million, which is what Olynyk got from the Heat.  But in terms of helping your team win games, Smart is far more valuable than Olynyk IMO.

I'm disappointed that you recognize the intangible things Smart does to impact the game when his shots aren't falling, but not that of Olynyk.

IMHO Olynyk impacts the average game at least as much as Smart does, if not more, regardless of whether he is scoring or not. 

Watch many of Boston's games carefully enough and you'll see that while Olynyk is on the floor he plays a large part in almost every positive possession the Celtics have, many of which do not make the box score = such as:

* Drawing a defender off his assignment to run out and contest him at the three point line, then making a well timed pass to that (now unmarked) teammated, who then makes the extra pass to an open player for a basket

* Taking a well timed charge that leads to a Celtics possession at a critical part of the game

* Running in for a well timed offensive rebound, then passing out to a teammate for an open three

* Sliding over to cut off an open drive from the opponent, an using his length to force the opponent into a difficult shot that misses

* Catching the ball on the perimeter, ball faking (defense must respect because of his shooting ability), then putting the ball on the floor and driving to the basket, forcing defense to rotate over, drops off a pass to teammate for an open layup

There are so many ways Kelly Olynyk impacts the game when he is on the court - everything starts to run more smoothly on both ends of the court. 

Smart on the other hand only really impacts the game on defense with any kind of consistency.  On offense he often is a no-shot (but in terms of scoring and in terms of general offensive impact) - and while he's a good rebounder for  guard, Kelly has far greater impact on the boards then Smart does (to the tune of some 8 rebounds per 36 for his career).

Olynyk is also a far more EFFICIENT offensive player, and a far more versatile one.  He can score from three (which also helps stretch the floor), at the basket (among Celtic leaders every year in FG% in the paint), from midrange, while also creating with his passing and having some presence on the offensive boards.  Offensively he does a bit of everything, and defensively he has far greater impact then most give him credit for.

There is a reason why Olynyk's advanced stats are among team leaders pretty much year on year.  He makes a major impact that goes well beyond box scores, and losing him is going to hurt us significantly.