Author Topic: Could the Celtics run two five man teams  (Read 3754 times)

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Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2017, 07:51:18 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Why don't teams try this? Everyone off - new five man team takes the floor.

Because this isn't hockey.  Some college teams have used this gimmick though and I think even Pitino did it once.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2017, 07:54:00 AM »

Offline Erik

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Look, I don't know why it's so difficult to understand.... with Avery Bradley gone, Smart and IT will be married on the court. Someone has to do the defensive switches when the little guy gets posted or PnR'ed:

https://www.celticsblog.com/2017/4/11/15252938/the-read-react-defending-1-boston-celtics-brooklyn-nets-defense-wins-championships

Anyone that watches Celtics games recognizes that first GIF.

Smart will be starting along with IT, Hayward, Crowder and Horford. It's just that simple. Brown will get 20 minutes a game and Tatum will see limited minutes depending on his progress. What you saw in Summer league against D-League players doesn't mean squat once he goes up against Kahwi Leonard and LeBron James. Tatum will have to earn every minute (starting with 0) because there are 8 players on this team that deserve minutes over him at this point in his career (starting lineup I just mentioned + Morris, Rozier, Brown). There is no way the Celtics are sending out a lineup including Brown, Tatum, and Theis for 24 minutes.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 08:04:21 AM by Erik »

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2017, 07:54:36 AM »

Offline loco_91

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The basic reason you don't split minutes evenly among players is that the 25th minute of IT/Horford/Hayward is much better than the 23rd (or even the 1st) minute of Rozier, Baynes or Theiss. However, the C's do have a deep  team and they probably will play some 10-man lineups, including bench units with 0 or 1 starters in.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2017, 08:01:48 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Look, I don't know why it's so difficult to understand.... with Avery Bradley gone, Smart and IT will be married on the court.
It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2017, 08:20:13 AM »

Offline Erik

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Look, I don't know why it's so difficult to understand.... with Avery Bradley gone, Smart and IT will be married on the court.
It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.

What you just said was deception... you're either just trying to be **** or hoping I wouldn't catch you.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2017_start.html

Once Bradley went down, they started experimenting with lineups:
First 2 Brown Started
Next 3 Smart Started
Next 2 Both Started
Next 6 Brown Started
By Jan 24th, Smart started over Brown every game until Bradley was back.

Also, Smart played significantly more minutes in most of the games that Brown started. He was playing upwards of 30-35 minutes a night while Brown was in for about 15 minutes.

Game 1 of the season (barring injury), the starting lineup will be IT, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Horford.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2017, 08:53:48 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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Look, I don't know why it's so difficult to understand.... with Avery Bradley gone, Smart and IT will be married on the court.
It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.

What you just said was deception... you're either just trying to be **** or hoping I wouldn't catch you.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2017_start.html

Once Bradley went down, they started experimenting with lineups:
First 2 Brown Started
Next 3 Smart Started
Next 2 Both Started
Next 6 Brown Started
By Jan 24th, Smart started over Brown every game until Bradley was back.

Also, Smart played significantly more minutes in most of the games that Brown started. He was playing upwards of 30-35 minutes a night while Brown was in for about 15 minutes.

Game 1 of the season (barring injury), the starting lineup will be IT, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Horford.

Brown and Smart were about 50/50 starting for Bradley last year.  There's no way you can state with certainty what the starting lineup will be.  There's a reasonable chance Baynes or Morris end up starting as well.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2017, 09:43:06 AM »

Offline OHCeltic

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Crowder wont start over Morris at PF

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2017, 09:48:37 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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What you just said was deception... you're either just trying to be **** or hoping I wouldn't catch you.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2017_start.html

Once Bradley went down, they started experimenting with lineups:
First 2 Brown Started
Next 3 Smart Started
Next 2 Both Started
Next 6 Brown Started
By Jan 24th, Smart started over Brown every game until Bradley was back.
I've got no idea what you're talking about. Were you reading the schedule upside down?

Here is what actually happened (harvested from the link you provided):

Bradley is out from Jan 7, his one-game return attempt notwithstanding.

Smart starts the next 4 games.

Bradley returns for 1 game.

Smart starts 3 more games.

Jaylen Brown starts 10 games in a row (Smart also starts 2 during this stretch -- for the injured Crowder).

Smart starts 3 games then is bumped in favor of Brown (2 games) at which point Bradley returns.

It is now February 27th. Bradley will miss 4 more odd games over the remainder of the season, and Brown will start every single one of them.

The final tally: Brown, 16 starts. Smart, 12 starts. Brown started 16 of the last 19 games in which Bradley wasn't on the court. It's clear that despite the fact the team was willing to give Smart multiple chances at SG, they concluded Brown is the better option.


Game 1 of the season (barring injury), the starting lineup will be IT, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Horford.
Yes, 3 to 4 players from this list may be in the starting lineup. That's about it.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2017, 10:14:09 AM »

Offline chilidawg

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IT, Hayward and Horford will be starters, I think that's all you can say with certainty.  The rest will evolve, most likely change as the season goes on, and probably surprise us.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2017, 10:25:29 AM »

Offline Erik

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What you just said was deception... you're either just trying to be **** or hoping I wouldn't catch you.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2017_start.html

Once Bradley went down, they started experimenting with lineups:
First 2 Brown Started
Next 3 Smart Started
Next 2 Both Started
Next 6 Brown Started
By Jan 24th, Smart started over Brown every game until Bradley was back.
I've got no idea what you're talking about. Were you reading the schedule upside down?

Here is what actually happened (harvested from the link you provided):

Bradley is out from Jan 7, his one-game return attempt notwithstanding.

Smart starts the next 4 games.

Bradley returns for 1 game.

Smart starts 3 more games.

Jaylen Brown starts 10 games in a row (Smart also starts 2 during this stretch -- for the injured Crowder).

Smart starts 3 games then is bumped in favor of Brown (2 games) at which point Bradley returns.

It is now February 27th. Bradley will miss 4 more odd games over the remainder of the season, and Brown will start every single one of them.

The final tally: Brown, 16 starts. Smart, 12 starts. Brown started 16 of the last 19 games in which Bradley wasn't on the court. It's clear that despite the fact the team was willing to give Smart multiple chances at SG, they concluded Brown is the better option.


Game 1 of the season (barring injury), the starting lineup will be IT, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Horford.
Yes, 3 to 4 players from this list may be in the starting lineup. That's about it.

Yes, I read it backwards. Early morning, coffee, insert whatever excuse.

The point still stands:

It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.

This is a lie. Mine is a mistake, yours is a lie.

The numbers are
Smart Solo: 11
Brown Solo: 14
Smart+Brown: 2

Minutes Per Game:
Thomas 33.8
Bradley 33.4
Crowder 32.4
Horford 32.3
Smart 30.4
Olynik: 20.5
Johnson 20.1
Brown 17.2
Rozier 17.1
Jerebko 15.8

Here are the lineups in terms of total minutes played together (without bradley)
Lineup // GP // MIN
J.Crowder, A.Horford, A.Johnson, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   27   192
J.Crowder, A.Horford, K.Olynyk, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   25   103
J.Brown, J.Jerebko, K.Olynyk, T.Rozier, M.Smart   BOS   30   99
J.Brown, J.Crowder, A.Horford, A.Johnson, I.Thomas   BOS   12   98   
J.Crowder, A.Horford, J.Jerebko, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   17   56   
J.Brown, J.Crowder, A.Horford, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   12   44   
J.Brown, A.Horford, K.Olynyk, T.Rozier, M.Smart   BOS   14   43
J.Brown, J.Jerebko, K.Olynyk, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   19   42   
J.Brown, J.Crowder, J.Jerebko, A.Johnson, I.Thomas   BOS   5   40   
J.Brown, A.Horford, J.Jerebko, T.Rozier, M.Smart   BOS   8   38
J.Brown, J.Crowder, A.Horford, J.Jerebko, I.Thomas   BOS   7   30   
G.Green, J.Jerebko, K.Olynyk, T.Rozier, M.Smart   BOS   8   29
J.Brown, A.Horford, A.Johnson, M.Smart, I.Thomas   BOS   5   23


I bolded the sections with IT in the game and Bradley out. As you can see, not only did Smart play by far the bulk of Bradley's minutes, All but 168 minutes (bold+italics) in the entire season that Bradley wasn't in the game, Smart was out and Brown was in.

(source: http://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&TeamID=1610612738)

We will see more of the same this season. The celtics have correctly identified that the worst defender in the league (IT) has to be paired with their best defender at the same time on the court (Bradley/Smart).

You three are correct. I cannot 100% say for certainty that the lineup will be Thomas, Smart, Hayward, Crowder, Horford, but these 5 players are the most important for the team this season and will get the most minutes. Smart is there because he is needed for the switches, as I mentioned in the first post. If I miss, I think it will be because of Marcus Morris. But I don't believe that will be a long term mistake that Stevens will make.

Brown will be playing the bulk of his minutes on the 2nd team with Rozier, and will be doing a great job.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 10:41:11 AM by Erik »

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #25 on: July 28, 2017, 10:39:00 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.

This is a lie. Mine is a mistake, yours is a lie.
It's not. The team gave Smart every chance to run away with the starting SG job early on and he couldn't. So they chose Brown.

This is not a question of who will play more, it's question of who will start. There is no reason to think that if the choice is down to starting either Smart or Brown they would choose differently this time.
"I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #26 on: July 28, 2017, 10:47:40 AM »

Offline Erik

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It is "hard to understand" because it didn't happen last year, when the Celtics missed Bradley for long stretches. The team chose to start Brown, even though he was less experienced and possibly not as great a defender.

This is a lie. Mine is a mistake, yours is a lie.
It's not. The team gave Smart every chance to run away with the starting SG job early on and he couldn't. So they chose Brown.

This is not a question of who will play more, it's question of who will start. There is no reason to think that if the choice is down to starting either Smart or Brown they would choose differently this time.

Yeah and what was my original point?

Look, I don't know why it's so difficult to understand.... with Avery Bradley gone, Smart and IT will be married on the court. Someone has to do the defensive switches when the little guy gets posted or PnR'ed.

YOU are the one who decided to turn this into a full debate on who will be in the starting lineup. when you took my "hard to understand" about the IT&Smart pairing and used it to refute my starting lineup theory. I just gave a prediction based on the obvious truth that Smart+IT is going to be a very common pairing on the court. I suppose they can get cute and start Brown for a few minutes like they did with Johnson and then put Smart in, but for the OP to state that the team will run 2 lineups with Smart and IT never on the floor at the same time is what I was refuting.

Re: Could the Celtics run two five man teams
« Reply #27 on: July 28, 2017, 10:56:48 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Could the Celtics be competitive if they played two full five man line-ups 24 minutes each ? Basically: everyone on, everyone off? If so, they could do things like full court press, and everyone could stay in motion, because all of the players would be resting so much.

My ideas for the "two fives" are below:

Starting 5: IT4, Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Baynes, M. Morris.

(IT4 and Hayward carry the scoring load, and everyone else plays defence).

Second 5: Marc Smart, Tatum, Crowder, Horford, Theis

(Tatum and Horford play a pick and roll game, and everyone else plays defence)*

*I think Tatum is going to be a huge star, you'd have to adjust the line-ups if you didn't believe this.

Why don't teams try this? Everyone off - new five man team takes the floor.



Bench: Yabusele, Rozier, Zizic, Larkin.

The Cs could and this is similar to what Hubie Brown did while the coach of the Grizzles. However the Cs top of the rotation players are too good to play limited minutes.

Without getting to into the minutes involved I suspect the Cs will play basically 4 different rotations .

Starting Group (not sure if Morris or Baynes but I will use last season as precedent)

IT
Hayward
Crowder
Horford
Baynes

First substitution

Smart
Brown
Hayward
Morris
Horford

Second Substitution

IT
Smart
Brown
Morris
Baynes

Finishing Team

IT (offense) Brown (defense)
Smart
Hayward
Crowder
Hordord

this grouping will also feature Rozier and Tatum getting working in for minutes but the basic idea holds that at NO point will the team go extended minutes without Hayward or IT on the court.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see a the occasional gimmick lineup of

Brown
Hayward
Tatum
Crowder
Morris

this all wing lineup could be used in short stretches against teams without an inside presence to exploit size advantages on the perimeter. I can see this being really effective against a team like Washington when Wall is on the bench.
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