Author Topic: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum  (Read 5808 times)

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Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2017, 12:43:43 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2723568-nba-scouts-dish-on-boston-celtics-rookie-jayson-tatum
Basically the few concerns are:
-Does he stop the ball

Yes, but clearly he's coachable. One of his many virtues is being careful with the ball, and If I could speculate, I'd say that part of his lack of passing is a reluctance to risk.

-Can he shoot the 3 better or more consistently

Yes, of course.  His shot mechanics are a thing of beauty, and he clearly has the range already. We saw him upfake on the closeout, take a dribble to his left, and nail the shot in Summer League, so he's evidently been working on how to be effective from the arc.  Since it's apparent that this will open up his game, he'll be putting in a ton of work on it, and we can safely count on him to do that.

-does he force taking low percentage shots instead of passing

Yes, he should pass more. But he'll make a lot of those low-percentage shots, too.

-will he reach his ceiling

I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2017, 12:54:04 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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I like Tatum's potential on both ends and also on the boards.

I think his defense is very underrated, and that he has a chance to be very good on that end.  He has long arms, a wide upper body to guard bigger guys eventually, quick hands, plays the passing lanes well, and is a high-IQ guy. 

If his offense can become more efficient (which it will under Brad Stevens), he gets more consistent from three, and starts passing a little bit, he will be a star in this league.

Good points all on his defense and rebounding. Also, regarding his body: he's got good balanced joints and upright posture. I can't help thinking that Markelle Fultz' knees gave Ainge pause; apart from Tatum's leadership potential, his body looks better able to withstand the rigors of the long season than Fultz'.


Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2017, 01:18:30 PM »

Online ChillyWilly

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.
ok fine

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2017, 01:28:01 PM »

Offline CELTICSofBOSTON

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2017, 02:03:00 PM »

Offline loco_91

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2017, 03:38:09 PM »

Online rocknrollforyoursoul

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.

To me, the basketball world's emphasis on athleticism in recent times has been a big flaw in the evaluation process. So many guys have been put on a pedestal because they can "jump out of the gym," but most of them never become much as players, because they don't put in the time to develop skills and an actual game.
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Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2017, 04:27:37 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2723568-nba-scouts-dish-on-boston-celtics-rookie-jayson-tatum


Basically the few concerns are:
-Does he stop the ball
-Can he shoot the 3 better or more consistently
-does he force taking low percentage shots instead of passing
-will he reach his ceiling

These concerns can be fixed by proper coaching and development. Not a better coach than Stevens.
They say he could either become pierce/Anthony/Hayward Or worse case is a Harrison barnes

I would expect that 95% of players 6'8 or taller coming into the league have the concern re: 3pt shooting.

Regarding the second point: I have no idea (nor does anyone else) if he will reach his ceiling. How would anyone know if a young player will reach their potential? I guess I don't get your point (or someone else's point).

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2017, 04:54:43 PM »

Offline moiso

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #23 on: July 29, 2017, 05:12:30 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.


I hope this is where he ends up. It is a fine line.  Will he be just good enough at ball movement, extend out to the three and draw contact in the paint, and end up as pierce/carmelo? Or will he stay a ball stopper, shooting midrange shots at an average rate and not drawing contact and end up as al thornton?

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #24 on: July 29, 2017, 06:41:55 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.

While the #3 pick should theoretically yield a top-end player, I don't think that it is reasonable to expect Pierce/Anthony production. I think many people are comparing Tatum's style to theirs. They are right to do so- he is a smooth iso player with a refined offensive game. He has miles to go before he can be compared to either. It would be similar to comparing an interesting start up company to Apple or Amazon.

Say what you want about Carmelo. He has averaged 25 pts and 7 rebs over his career, and has averaged at least 20ppg in all of his 15 years in the league. That is impressive. At times, he has looked like the best player on Team USA.

And I don't need to say anything about Pierce that people here don't know about- the guy is an all time Celtic great.

I would love to think that Tatum will be leading the Celtics in scoring 15 years from now, but this would probably more of an outlier than something to bank on.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #25 on: July 29, 2017, 06:43:18 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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On the 3 point question specifically, it's useful to look at both college 3pt% and FT%, as both are predictors of pro success (with FT% being a slightly better predictor according to many analyses):

https://fansided.com/2017/05/19/nylon-calculus-projecting-3-point-shooting-2017-nba-draft-prospects/

https://medium.com/push-the-pace/fact-or-fiction-is-college-free-throw-percentage-better-than-college-three-point-percentage-at-8c77a7e3f09a

With that in mind, here are the freshman 3pt/FT shooting percentages for some players mentioned as comps above, as well as the other top-scoring SFs in the league last year:

Player                 3pt%         FT%       Ast/40
Kevin Durant           40.4%        81.6%      1.5
Carmelo Anthony        33.7%        70.6%      2.4
Paul Pierce            30.4%        60.6%      2.8
Paul George            44.7%*       69.7%      1.9
Gordon Hayward         44.8%**      81.5%      2.0
Harrison Barnes        34.4%        75.0%      2.0
Tobias Harris          30.3%        75.3%      1.3
Kawhi Leonard          20.5%        72.6%      2.4
Jayson Tatum           34.2%        84.9%      2.6


* - fell to 35.3% sophomore
** - fell to 29.4% sophomore

Based on these figures there's clearly no cause for alarm. To the contrary, Tatum is the top-ranked SF on the list by the best predictor (FT%), and no worse than middle of the pack by the other metric. Indeed, the only guys who were on Tatum's level in both 3pt and FT percentages were Durant and Hayward. And even Hayward slipped to 29.4% as a sophomore.

Also, as you can see I've also listed assists per 40. It's not a perfect measure of passing ability by any stretch, due to the big differences in system and role you will see at the college level. But Tatum's numbers are in fact 2nd highest on that list too, trailing only our very own Paul Pierce.

To sum up: the two biggest "concerns" raised by these reports seem overblown.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #26 on: July 29, 2017, 06:43:23 PM »

Offline moiso

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.


I hope this is where he ends up. It is a fine line.  Will he be just good enough at ball movement, extend out to the three and draw contact in the paint, and end up as pierce/carmelo? Or will he stay a ball stopper, shooting midrange shots at an average rate and not drawing contact and end up as al thornton?
Im pretty certain that he will become a very good 3 point threat.  Hopefully Stevens will help him get out of his ballstopping ways but that's a concern.  And hopefully he will learn to spot some open teammates.  I'm not very worried about his defense and rebounding long term. 

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #27 on: July 29, 2017, 07:04:09 PM »

Offline loco_91

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.

It's easy to underestimate how rare it is to draft a Paul Pierce-level player. These guys are just super rare and for all but the very best prospects, they need to develop unusually well to reach that level. I love Tatum, but objectively his odds of becoming a top-5ish player like prime Pierce are well below 50%. I would've said the same about literally every incoming rookie since AD.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #28 on: July 29, 2017, 07:09:37 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Regarding the second point: I have no idea (nor does anyone else) if he will reach his ceiling. How would anyone know if a young player will reach their potential?

Good point.

And, beyond that: how would anyone ever know if a player in fact ever DID reach their potential? People talk about potential as though it were something fixed, settled, real - and even knowable (though good luck figuring out how it could be known!).

In the end, it's always in comparison to someone's expectation; and even the seasoned experts in the field vary a lot in their expectations.

Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Hedging their bets. Journalistic laziness?

He’ll probably be an all-star, good chance of perennial all-star. He’s come a long way with fundamentals, skills, and repertoire already. He’s got a great NBA body and hasn’t forgotten where he came from; he’s a leader.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

Thanks, my friend.

The more that I’ve seen, the more I’ve liked what I see.

It’s the player - but it’s also the fit, both for today’s game and for Boston Celtics basketball in particular.

I agree with Danny Ainge and his staff.

To me, the basketball world's emphasis on athleticism in recent times has been a big flaw in the evaluation process. So many guys have been put on a pedestal because they can "jump out of the gym," but most of them never become much as players, because they don't put in the time to develop skills and an actual game.

I have several points to make here:

“Athleticism”, at least as far as fans are concerned, is pretty much running and jumping.  But shouldn’t it include everything that a player does with muscles and his nervous system? What about Jaylen Brown, who for sure can run and jump - but who also has superb fine motor skills.

You’re right that nowadays there is an increased emphasis on athleticism, and the reasons are not hard to find: the game has opened up, has more movement, and is now being played in a much larger space than in the ’80’s - let alone the 1970’s and before; closing out to the 3-pt line is just a more essential skill than it used to be, and the movement is constant.

Surely we can say confidently that Jayson Tatum’s impressive combination of skills and athleticism are evidence of someone who has put in impressive work, and will predictably continue to do it; the PRECISION of his moves, the sheer muscular efficiency - and most of all, the variety - argue that he has all-star games in his future.

Re: Collection of what scouts say about Tatum
« Reply #29 on: July 29, 2017, 07:18:11 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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Maybe it's my poor reading comprehension skills but overall these quotes make me feel the scouts have a moderately low ceiling for him.

Most scouts believe players have a low ceiling unless they are freak athletes.

I love the quote by ThePaintedArea earlier: "I don't believe that there's a ceiling, for him or anyone else.  This is a concept invented by spectators, not by performers."

The truth is, we don't know how good any of these young guys are going to be.  Even the draft "experts" can only speculate based on what they've seen.  Jayson Tatum can be the best player from this draft.  Danny Ainge and his staff clearly thought so.

I think Jayson Tatum can be very good on both sides of the ball, and with good coaching in his young career (dude is 19) he should be able to fix some of his weaknesses and improve under Brad Stevens.

He is a good athlete, with great size for a wing and an unbelievable knack for scoring.  I don't think his "ceiling" is low at all.

I think "ceiling" is a useful concept, but as you say it is incorrectly used as a synonym for athleticism. To me Tatum's ceiling is clearly high, as there is a small but nonzero chance that he will be as good as Paul Pierce. Conversely, Terry Rozier has always been a low-ceiling prospect despite his athleticism, as he's an undersized SG who lacks the skill level that you need to be a star offensive guard.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I really expect Tatum to be in the Paul Pierce/Carmelo Anthony tier.  It will be a pretty big disappointment if he doesn't end up on their level, especially if Fultz and Ball end up on a higher level.

Yes, he's that good.

Ball is also very good - is this the beginning of yet another Celtics/Lakers rivalry?!

I love Fultz' game, and he's the perfect complement to Embiid and Simmons. I wonder, though - and I wonder the same thing about those two - will his body stop him at some point? Specifically his knees, which are shockingly extended in his normal standing posture; I heard tell that he had two hyperextension injuries in high school, which would not be surprising given the position of the joint. We'll see!