2018 NBA Draft

[JHTruth]

OK I've seen enough of Bagley. He's coming out in 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7P04msq9xTk

No way hes going to wait an extra year to get drafted no 1 lol

[CelticsElite]

IF we somehow get either Bagley or Porter.... Either one fits very nicely at the 4. The consolation prizes ayton and bamba also fit very nicely at the 4 for us which is our need. Doncic is a nice wing/ point forward to have as well.

[JHTruth]

The idea is bringing all the Brooklyn picks and laker pick off the bench so they gain chemistry, so they one day become the starting lineup. You see just through their first summer league game how much chemistry Tatum and brown gained

Now imagine adding porter, ayton or Bagley to that brown and Tatum

We're gonna literally have the McDonald's all American team come off the bench for us if the ping pong balls fall correctly

Don't forget Zizic. He's not as flashy as the others but every team needs a tough enforcer like him..

[CelticsElite]

The idea is bringing all the Brooklyn picks and laker pick off the bench so they gain chemistry, so they one day become the starting lineup. You see just through their first summer league game how much chemistry Tatum and brown gained

Now imagine adding porter, ayton or Bagley to that brown and Tatum

We're gonna literally have the McDonald's all American team come off the bench for us if the ping pong balls fall correctly

Don't forget Zizic. He's not as flashy as the others but every team needs a tough enforcer like him..

yup. Love zizic role at the 5 for the bench. Goes for every Rebound. If he can complete his simple role of "get rebound, pass to open man" we will be solid

[GreenFaith1819]

If those picks hold up and things go south in NOH................

[green_bballers13]

I haven't seen the projected wins and standings (or read math written by math people), but I would expect something like a 65% chance BKN gets a top 5 pick and the Lakers have something like a 40% chance of getting one. That would be something like a 26% chance of them both getting one. Bump BKN up to 80% and the Lakers at 60% chance, and its still less than a 50% chance of them both hitting. Ha I'm winging it here- I'm really not sure.

[CelticsElite]

Meh.  Odds are extremely long that we end up at those two spots.

based on what?  Nets finished as worst team and Lakers finished as 3rd worst team. They both made flopped trades and signed bad players. They stayed significantly worse than the comoetition

Based on probability.  Even if the Nets and Lakers are the two worst teams in the league, the chance of getting #1 and #2 or #3 are 9%.  That's if everything works out to our wildest dreams.  Since it's not a guarantee that the Nets and Lakers will be the two worst teams, the odds are considerably lower.

where did you get the number?
While it's true that the competition for the absolute worst record got tougher, right now the Nets are still a bottom 5 team and that's all that really matters. The Lakers might be closer to the 7-10th worst team, but because they play out West, wins will be harder to come by, while most of the teams below them play in the East and will feed wins to each other by default. The East has only 5 teams (BOS/CLE/TOR/WAS/MIL) that are clearly .500 or greater, while the West has only 4 teams (LAL/PHO/DAL/SAC) that wouldn't clearly be .500 teams in the East.

If you assume weak teams go .500 against each other on average, the West teams have ~12 games against each other and 20 games against weak East teams. Meanwhile the weak East teams have ~36 games against each other and 8 games against the bad West teams. Based on that, the East teams could win up to 22 just be splitting games against bad teams, while the West teams would only get 16 wins by doing that.

Obviously it won't play out exactly like that, but it illustrates how much harder wins will be to come by out West for bad teams.

the Nets might win a few more than their talent level, but they're still really bad and should stay around the same area of the lottery, and the Lakers should win a few less than their talent level, which hopefully is enough to keep that pick in the 2-6 range.

[Ogaju]

If those picks hold up and things go south in NOH................

if we get these picks why would we spend them on one guy? He really does not move the needle that much.

[manl_lui]

If those picks hold up and things go south in NOH................

if we get these picks why would we spend them on one guy? He really does not move the needle that much.

seriously? I'd trade the BKN + Lakers/Philly pick and others for Davis in a heartbeat. He single handily bought his team to the playoffs 2 years ago, a very bad team. I think AD is legit, I know it's a pipe dream, but if AD wants to come here, he's one of the few players worth gutting the farm for

[PaulP34]

If we gat the #1 and either 2,3,4 or 5 picks, Danny is trading the #1 pick for either a player + a future #1 pick or he's  trading both for AD.

If he cant get AD and keeps them picks then i see him going with Porter at #1 abd either Bamba, Ayton or Doncic

Imagine the future starting 5

Ayton
Zizic
Porter Jr.
Tatum
Brown

Learning from

IT
Hayward
Horford
Crowder
Smart

[JHTruth]

If we gat the #1 and either 2,3,4 or 5 picks, Danny is trading the #1 pick for either a player + a future #1 pick or he's  trading both for AD.

If he cant get AD and keeps them picks then i see him going with Porter at #1 abd either Bamba, Ayton or Doncic

Imagine the future starting 5

Ayton
Zizic
Porter Jr.
Tatum
Brown

Learning from

IT
Hayward
Horford
Crowder
Smart

Yeah I think he'll target Davis if he gets the No 1 or 2. If that doesn't happen, he'll just draft Porter or Bagley and then nab Doncic. Remember he has a bunch of other picks to offer to get him in the exact draft position he needs to get the guys he wants.

Doncic/Brown/Tatum/Porter or Bagley/Zizic is the future superteam he's building as they all develop on a deep playoff team.

[gouki88]

If we gat the #1 and either 2,3,4 or 5 picks, Danny is trading the #1 pick for either a player + a future #1 pick or he's  trading both for AD.

If he cant get AD and keeps them picks then i see him going with Porter at #1 abd either Bamba, Ayton or Doncic

Imagine the future starting 5

Ayton
Zizic
Porter Jr.
Tatum
Brown

Learning from

IT
Hayward
Horford
Crowder
Smart

Yeah I think he'll target Davis if he gets the No 1 or 2. If that doesn't happen, he'll just draft Porter or Bagley and then nab Doncic. Remember he has a bunch of other picks to offer to get him in the exact draft position he needs to get the guys he wants.

Doncic/Brown/Tatum/Porter or Bagley/Zizic is the future superteam he's building as they all develop on a deep playoff team.

There is no way he'd consider Porter over Bagley if things pan out as expected. Bagley is a step above Porter as a prospect (at this stage).

That being said, I'm not too high on Porter. See more Rashard Lewis than I do KD.

[coffee425]

There is no way he'd consider Porter over Bagley if things pan out as expected. Bagley is a step above Porter as a prospect (at this stage).

That being said, I'm not too high on Porter. See more Rashard Lewis than I do KD.

Has better footwork/handle/shot creation than Rashard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkHjwinwL88&t=221s

[JHTruth]

There is no way he'd consider Porter over Bagley if things pan out as expected. Bagley is a step above Porter as a prospect (at this stage).

That being said, I'm not too high on Porter. See more Rashard Lewis than I do KD.

Has better footwork/handle/shot creation than Rashard
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkHjwinwL88&t=221s

Yeah agreed. Rashard was basically a spot-up shooter. I see a lot more skills in Porter. But agreed, if given the choice you take Bagley over Porter..

[BitterJim]

Meh.  Odds are extremely long that we end up at those two spots.

based on what?  Nets finished as worst team and Lakers finished as 3rd worst team. They both made flopped trades and signed bad players. They stayed significantly worse than the comoetition

Based on probability.  Even if the Nets and Lakers are the two worst teams in the league, the chance of getting #1 and #2 or #3 are 9%.  That's if everything works out to our wildest dreams.  Since it's not a guarantee that the Nets and Lakers will be the two worst teams, the odds are considerably lower.

where did you get the number?
While it's true that the competition for the absolute worst record got tougher, right now the Nets are still a bottom 5 team and that's all that really matters. The Lakers might be closer to the 7-10th worst team, but because they play out West, wins will be harder to come by, while most of the teams below them play in the East and will feed wins to each other by default. The East has only 5 teams (BOS/CLE/TOR/WAS/MIL) that are clearly .500 or greater, while the West has only 4 teams (LAL/PHO/DAL/SAC) that wouldn't clearly be .500 teams in the East.

If you assume weak teams go .500 against each other on average, the West teams have ~12 games against each other and 20 games against weak East teams. Meanwhile the weak East teams have ~36 games against each other and 8 games against the bad West teams. Based on that, the East teams could win up to 22 just be splitting games against bad teams, while the West teams would only get 16 wins by doing that.

Obviously it won't play out exactly like that, but it illustrates how much harder wins will be to come by out West for bad teams.

the Nets might win a few more than their talent level, but they're still really bad and should stay around the same area of the lottery, and the Lakers should win a few less than their talent level, which hopefully is enough to keep that pick in the 2-6 range.

Math? It's actually a little off because of how the Nets getting the #1 pick would impact the odds, but it's a good back of the envelope calc.  If the Nets are the worst and Lakers are 2nd worst, that's a 25% chance that the Nets are #1, 26.5% chance that the Lakers get the #2 pick and 26.5-33.5% chance of the #3 pick assuming that the Nets get #1.  So altogether it works out to 13.3%-15.0% (it's actually some number in between those, but I don't have time to do the weighted average right now) chance that we could get the #1 and either the #2 or #3 pick, and that's assuming that the Nets have the worst record and the Lakers have the 2nd worst.

And you keep saying "the 2-6 range" for the Lakers pick, but it's wrong.  We only keep it if it's 2-5, if it's #6 it goes to Philly