Author Topic: Idea - Thomas for Irving  (Read 3788 times)

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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #45 on: July 21, 2017, 11:19:08 PM »

Offline jakeopp

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Why keep IT:

- Leadership
- Better & more efficient scorer on a higher usage.
- Proven #1 option on an ECF team. (Irving was a tank commander before Lebron, still struggles to carry the team when Lebron rests)
- Slightly better assist numbers, better passer (imo)
- Gets to the line much more

Why Irving:

- Younger, potential to surpass IT
- Better contract situation
- Better 3 point shooter
- Higher ceiling on defense (if he ever puts his mind to it...)



Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #46 on: July 21, 2017, 11:20:31 PM »

Offline max215

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Way, WAY too much to give up.  Irving is not that much better than Thomas.

ummm yes he is

Care to expand at all?

- more efficient scorer
- possibly best ball handler/dribbler of this generation..maybe of all time
- NBA champion - knows what it takes to win a title at just 25.
- 5 inches taller. Better at getting in passing lanes and disrupting opposing offenses.
- better rebounder
- more proven clutch shooter
- better pulling up off dribble

you could argue that having IT4 at 7 million  season is better than having Kyrie at 20 mill a season, but if you're arguing IT4 is a better player then you are delusional and don't really know basketball.

2017 stats:

Kyrie Irving:
25.2 PPG
3.2 RPG
5.8 APG
.53 eFG%

Isaiah Thomas:
28.9 PPG
2.7 RPG
5.9 APG
.54 eFG%

Im not sure where did you get the Kyrie is a "much better scorer", nor a "much better rebounder" narrative when their number are quite close. Best ball-handler, sure. But is he really a winner? Couldn't take his team to the playoffs before Lebron arrived. IT, meanwhile took a bottom 5 team to the playoffs and the Celtics are slowly improving to a powerhouse team.

Robert Horry is a 7x champion and is just as clutch as Kyrie. I guess he's a better player than both of them.

First of all Thomas's stats on scoring are of course going to be better.  He was the only true scorer on the team, stats can lie.  Irving had to share the ball with James and Love both guys that can drop 20 points easy daily.

When it was simply Irving of course he didn't take them to the playoffs, the rest of the team blew.  Thomas got traded to a good overall team needed help.

That's not the main point. Irving is only a second option, but his eFG% is still lesser than Thomas who were carrying the whole offense of the team. Kyrie's highest scoring season is last year, where he is the second option. Before Lebron came, he's the primary option of the team, only averaging 18.5, 22.5 and 20.8 PPG respectively. So being "second option" with Lebron is invalid since Kyrie is the Cav's primary option on crunch time while Lebron is giving him open looks.

IT, on the other hand had to create for himself and his team mates because all the defensive attention goes to him.

Not to mention, when Irving was the primary weapon last year (Kyrie On, LeBron Off), the Cavs' NTRG was -8!

http://stats.nba.com/impact/advanced/#!?LineupIDs=202681&VsLineupIDs=2544&TeamID=1610612739&VsTeamID=1610612739

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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #47 on: July 21, 2017, 11:26:13 PM »

Offline max215

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Why keep IT:

- Leadership
- Better & more efficient scorer on a higher usage.
- Proven #1 option on an ECF team. (Irving was a tank commander before Lebron, still struggles to carry the team when Lebron rests)
- Slightly better assist numbers, better passer (imo)
- Gets to the line much more

Why Irving:

- Younger, potential to surpass IT
- Better contract situation
- Better 3 point shooter
- Higher ceiling on defense (if he ever puts his mind to it...)

Much as I will vouch for IT, there are legitimate arguments for Irving. Arguing that Irving is currently a better player is, in my opinion, not a great argument. Arguing that Irving is a better scorer is, factually, not a great argument. Your list contains a bunch of good arguments.
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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #48 on: July 21, 2017, 11:41:31 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Wow.

Reading this thread ... I can feel my brain cells screaming as they die ...

Time to log off of CelticsBlog for a while until the insanity fades back into the background.
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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #49 on: July 21, 2017, 11:42:31 PM »

Offline Sketch5

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Way, WAY too much to give up.  Irving is not that much better than Thomas.

ummm yes he is

Care to expand at all?

- more efficient scorer
- possibly best ball handler/dribbler of this generation..maybe of all time
- NBA champion - knows what it takes to win a title at just 25.
- 5 inches taller. Better at getting in passing lanes and disrupting opposing offenses.
- better rebounder
- more proven clutch shooter
- better pulling up off dribble

you could argue that having IT4 at 7 million  season is better than having Kyrie at 20 mill a season, but if you're arguing IT4 is a better player then you are delusional and don't really know basketball.

- more efficient scorer--Nope

- possibly best ball handler/dribbler of this generation..maybe of all time--Give you that

- NBA champion - knows what it takes to win a title at just 25.--Thanks Lebron!!

- 5 inches taller. Better at getting in passing lanes and disrupting opposing offenses.
--Would be true if he actually tried to play D.

- better rebounder--He's 5 inches taller he should be, but he barely is.

- more proven clutch shooter
--Mr. 4th Quarter say's whatchya been smokin?

- better pulling up off dribble--Do you even watch IT play??

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #50 on: July 21, 2017, 11:43:21 PM »

Offline jakeopp

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Why keep IT:

- Leadership
- Better & more efficient scorer on a higher usage.
- Proven #1 option on an ECF team. (Irving was a tank commander before Lebron, still struggles to carry the team when Lebron rests)
- Slightly better assist numbers, better passer (imo)
- Gets to the line much more

Why Irving:

- Younger, potential to surpass IT
- Better contract situation
- Better 3 point shooter
- Higher ceiling on defense (if he ever puts his mind to it...)

Much as I will vouch for IT, there are legitimate arguments for Irving. Arguing that Irving is currently a better player is, in my opinion, not a great argument. Arguing that Irving is a better scorer is, factually, not a great argument. Your list contains a bunch of good arguments.
24 years old, and under contract beyond this season is a great reason to want him IMO. Claiming he's a better player would be hard to back up, though I wouldn't be shocked to see Irving surpass IT in the near future.

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2017, 11:49:27 PM »

Offline max215

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Why keep IT:

- Leadership
- Better & more efficient scorer on a higher usage.
- Proven #1 option on an ECF team. (Irving was a tank commander before Lebron, still struggles to carry the team when Lebron rests)
- Slightly better assist numbers, better passer (imo)
- Gets to the line much more

Why Irving:

- Younger, potential to surpass IT
- Better contract situation
- Better 3 point shooter
- Higher ceiling on defense (if he ever puts his mind to it...)

Much as I will vouch for IT, there are legitimate arguments for Irving. Arguing that Irving is currently a better player is, in my opinion, not a great argument. Arguing that Irving is a better scorer is, factually, not a great argument. Your list contains a bunch of good arguments.
24 years old, and under contract beyond this season is a great reason to want him IMO. Claiming he's a better player would be hard to back up, though I wouldn't be shocked to see Irving surpass IT in the near future.

All fair, which is why I believe Irving's trade is far higher than Isaiah's. Isaiah's still the better player for now.
Isaiah, you were lightning in a bottle.

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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2017, 12:06:14 AM »

Offline colincb

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Over their 6 year careers, Irving has had slightly better numbers. However, in three of those years, KI played with James (and Love). Irving's offensive rating without James is 6 points lower than with him.

ITís stats have been better than Irvingís for each of the last two years (significantly last year) despite being the primary defensive focus of the opposition in both years, unlike Irving. In particular, Thomas is a markedly more efficient shooter than Irving. Both are known defensive liabilities with Thomas being the slightly weaker because of his size.

Contract money will be in the same ballpark for the next 6 years assuming both get maxed out. I would guess that assuming he is healthy next year, IT would get the max and stay with BOS. I have far less confidence that Irving would. Irvingsís biggest advantage is in being 3 years younger and would end his next contract at 32 vs 35 for IT.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5RInt
http://bkref.com/tiny/s7GuW
http://bkref.com/tiny/qXime
https://labs.statmuse.com/questions/157456c5-9994-47da-aaa7-a9bf2d402368

IMO, at this point in their careers, IT is the better player and would be more likely to resign as a UFA than Irving, and that these factors trumps Irvingís age advantage and potential upside, if any. 
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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #53 on: July 22, 2017, 05:08:08 PM »

Offline ssspence

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I would trade Thomas, Crowder and Smart for Irving. I think Ainge would too. I doubt another team could match that offer, considering it has both short term AND long term value for the Cavs.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2017, 08:41:56 AM by ssspence »
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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #54 on: July 25, 2017, 09:47:17 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I wanted to look at the finances myself. Obviously it goes out the window if you think you can get IT for less than the max, but I donít think you can bank on that at all, given the FA money floating around.

Here are the cap estimates I used:
Cap:
2016-17: 94
2017-18: 99
2018-19: 104
2019-20: 109
2020-21: 114


So then I think it would look like this:
For each player, it has their age in years.days, followed by the # season it would be followed by the playerís age that season followed by the annual salary.


IT:
28.168 yrs
2016-17: 9: 28: 6.3
2017-18: 10: 29: 31.2
2018-19: 11: 30: 33.7
2019-20: 12: 31: 36.4
2020-21: 13: 32: 39.3
2021-22: 14: 33: 42.4

So thatís 6 yrs 189.3 million, or 31.6 per year through his age 33 season


Irving has 2 options. He could decline his player option, sign the max extension when possible; or he could pick up his player option and sign the 5 yr max a year later, which would make him a 10 yr player when he signs, so it would be 35% instead of 30%.

Irving (decline player option)
25.124 yrs
2016-17: 7: 25: 18.9
2017-18: 8: 26: 20.1
2018-19: 9: 27: 32.7
2019-20: 10: 28: 35.3
2020-21: 11: 29: 38.14
2021-22: 12: 30: 41.2
2022-23: 13: 31: 44.5

So that would be 7 seasons, 230.8 million, or 33 million per year for 7 years through just his age 31 season.



Irving (pick up player option; sign 35% max):
25.124 yrs
2016-17: 7: 25: 18.9
2017-18: 8: 26: 20.1
2018-19: 9: 27: 21.3
2019-20: 10: 28: 39.9
2020-21: 11: 29: 43.1
2021-22: 12: 30: 46.5
2022-23: 13: 31: 50.3
2023-24: 14: 32: 54.3

This option is 8 years, 294.3, or 36.8 million per year through his age 32 season.



So thatís tough. IT is really good offensively. Both are poor defensively. If Irving takes the middle option, with the earlier raise to max contract, the money is pretty much a wash; given that. Iíd take the Irving option, all else being equal, since he will likely age a little better given his size, he may not have fully hit his peak yet whereas itís hard to imagine IT maintaining this current level (though he may remain close, obviously I like him a lot; itís just more bankable that Iriving will sty the same or even get better over the next few years), and because the Irving contract would only go through his age 31 season.

But, thatís all things being equal; so it really depends what you else you have to give up to get him. Probably not worth the BKN pick, for example, probably not even the SAC/LAL pick. But tough to tell what it would take.

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #55 on: July 26, 2017, 12:14:26 AM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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With all the talk of salaries, stats and all the rest there's only one factor that I would take in to considering when making this decision - probability of winning a title.

Are we more likely to win a championship with Kyrie on the roster or IT? 

A lot of people out there strongly question whether a team can win a championship led by a 5'9" shoot-first PG who is as great a defensive liability as Thomas is.  As much as I love IT I have to admit, that's a legit question.  Especially when the team that's waiting for you is this stacked Golden State team (who likely will be the team waiting for the next 2-4 years). 

I think you have to ask the question - does Kyrie match up better with Steph Curry then Isaiah does?  If I take off my green glasses and look at the situation objectively, then I think my answer has to be yes.

« Last Edit: July 26, 2017, 12:58:00 AM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #56 on: July 26, 2017, 11:01:20 AM »

Offline Moranis

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read an article, think it was on ESPN, that basically said Irving in the 2000 minutes or so he has played without James (which is close to a full season), was essentially statistically exactly the same as Thomas was last year getting somewhere just over 30 ppg and 6.3 apg on fairly similar shooting percentages.  So this notion that Irving can't perform as well as a #1 option is misleading, especially when you consider his teammates for those 2000 minutes are geared towards James' style of play and not Irving's. 
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Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #57 on: July 26, 2017, 04:35:34 PM »

Offline jakeopp

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With all the talk of salaries, stats and all the rest there's only one factor that I would take in to considering when making this decision - probability of winning a title.

Are we more likely to win a championship with Kyrie on the roster or IT? 

A lot of people out there strongly question whether a team can win a championship led by a 5'9" shoot-first PG who is as great a defensive liability as Thomas is.  As much as I love IT I have to admit, that's a legit question.  Especially when the team that's waiting for you is this stacked Golden State team (who likely will be the team waiting for the next 2-4 years). 

I think you have to ask the question - does Kyrie match up better with Steph Curry then Isaiah does?  If I take off my green glasses and look at the situation objectively, then I think my answer has to be yes.

Kyrie is a shoot first PG, and nearly as much a defensive liability as IT, so I'm not sure what your point is other than "Kyrie is better because he's taller". Looking at the numbers there's no debate who the better player was last year.

Kyrie doesn't matchup with Curry well unless he suddenly decides he's going to start playing defense. As far as I'm concerned no one matches up with Curry well, he's far away the best PG in the league.

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #58 on: July 26, 2017, 05:26:34 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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one way or another , Boston will certainly have to exceed the cap to be able to contest the warrior .

The team will have to eat the tax to compete with GS

Re: Idea - Thomas for Irving
« Reply #59 on: July 26, 2017, 05:45:27 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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So isn't the conclusion from all of this that Irving and Thomas are relatively comparable players?  I think the season that Thomas had last season is better than any season Irving has had but Thomas may not be able to repeat that.  Irving is young enough to still have some upside, perhaps more so than Thomas but Thomas has improved every season up to this point.  Over 5 or 6 seasons, both will be max and end up costing about the same.  Which hair do you want to split?

I am not real keen on a trade of Thomas plus whatever Irving.  Unfortunately it is the "whatever" that would tip the scales of this trade in favor of Cleveland so I see it as a hard one to win.