Author Topic: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?  (Read 4151 times)

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Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #30 on: July 17, 2017, 10:49:35 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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Hayward is a capable defender, not as good on ball as Bradley, but his length should actually provide some benefits that Bradley could not in the overall team scheme. Hayward is more than able to check most shooting guards, he's a better defender than many think. Having said that, I wouldn't be surprised if CBS went with Brown in the starting line up, he played good D last year and did well as a starter. A lineup of IT, Brown, Hayward, Horford and one more (Baynes, Morris, Crowder...take your pick) makes sense too.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #31 on: July 17, 2017, 10:51:23 PM »

Offline tarheelsxxiii

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I'm not sure Hayward is anything more than a short term answer at the 2,

I don't get this thinking at all.   Hayward has played the 2 a ton throughout his NBA career, including a lot this last year.  He's one of the best wings in the NBA.  He's elite on offense and an above average defender.

How is he NOT the answer at the 2?

In the past 4 seasons, 14% of his total possessions played were at the 2.  And that's even skewed -- 12% came in '15-'16. 

He can guard at SG on switches, but not ideal at his size.  Jaylen is probably the best option unless you believe Rozier can be relied upon to lead a 2nd unit.  I truly don't. 
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Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #32 on: July 17, 2017, 10:56:50 PM »

Offline jambr380

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I'm not sure Hayward is anything more than a short term answer at the 2,

I don't get this thinking at all.   Hayward has played the 2 a ton throughout his NBA career, including a lot this last year.  He's one of the best wings in the NBA.  He's elite on offense and an above average defender.

How is he NOT the answer at the 2?

Hayward really hasn't played the 2 with any type of consistency since 2012-13. And this past season, his time at the 4 really spiked (70%-SF, 30%-PF). During the playoffs that number at PF raised to an astounding 62%.

I realize Hayward wasn't necessarily brought in to replace Amir's front court role, but his recent history shows very little time at the SG position.

Combine this with the fact that, as players age, they are more likely to move to 'bigger' positions (usually decrease in quickness, increase in strength) and the direction the NBA is going with big men and it is much more likely Hayward starts at PF than SG on opening day.

Now I don't necessarily agree with my argument, just pointing out that it isn't as obvious as it seems.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2017, 11:14:02 PM »

Offline bellerephon

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You also need to consider that mismatches work both ways. Hayward might be a bit slow to guard quicker twos, but he would be an absolute nightmare for a two to guard. I tend to think that he would do more than enough damage on offense to make up for any shortcomings on defense.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2017, 07:46:49 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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I'm not sure Hayward is anything more than a short term answer at the 2,

I don't get this thinking at all.   Hayward has played the 2 a ton throughout his NBA career, including a lot this last year.  He's one of the best wings in the NBA.  He's elite on offense and an above average defender.

How is he NOT the answer at the 2?

In the past 4 seasons, 14% of his total possessions played were at the 2.  And that's even skewed -- 12% came in '15-'16. 

He can guard at SG on switches, but not ideal at his size.  Jaylen is probably the best option unless you believe Rozier can be relied upon to lead a 2nd unit.  I truly don't.

I'm guessing that you got those numbers from basketball-reference.com's Play-by-Play stats.  Those are misleading.  My understanding is that those are based on the substitution log. 

82games.com has Hayward's positional splits at pretty much 50/50 between SG & SF this last year.  And that makes a lot of sense given he shared the floor a ton with Joe Ingles or Joe Johnson, neither of whom are as quick as Hayward (Johnson has been primarily guarding forwards instead of guards since he was still a Net).
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Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2017, 07:50:51 AM »

Offline footey

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I see Brad taking advantage of Brown's length and quickness defensively.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2017, 07:56:24 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
I'm guessing that you got those numbers from basketball-reference.com's Play-by-Play stats.  Those are misleading.  My understanding is that those are based on the substitution log. 

82games.com has Hayward's positional splits at pretty much 50/50 between SG & SF this last year.  And that makes a lot of sense given he shared the floor a ton with Joe Ingles or Joe Johnson, neither of whom are as quick as Hayward (Johnson has been primarily guarding forwards instead of guards since he was still a Net).

I think most should trust basketball reference over 82games.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2017, 08:01:21 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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I'm not sure Hayward is anything more than a short term answer at the 2,

I don't get this thinking at all.   Hayward has played the 2 a ton throughout his NBA career, including a lot this last year.  He's one of the best wings in the NBA.  He's elite on offense and an above average defender.

How is he NOT the answer at the 2?

Hayward really hasn't played the 2 with any type of consistency since 2012-13. And this past season, his time at the 4 really spiked (70%-SF, 30%-PF). During the playoffs that number at PF raised to an astounding 62%.

I realize Hayward wasn't necessarily brought in to replace Amir's front court role, but his recent history shows very little time at the SG position.

Combine this with the fact that, as players age, they are more likely to move to 'bigger' positions (usually decrease in quickness, increase in strength) and the direction the NBA is going with big men and it is much more likely Hayward starts at PF than SG on opening day.

Now I don't necessarily agree with my argument, just pointing out that it isn't as obvious as it seems.

Yeah, um, no.  Hayward did not spend 30% of his time at PF this last year.  The Play-by-Play numbers at basketball-reference.com are not a correct tracker of positional splits.  They are based on play-by-play substitution logs, which have only the tiniest correlation with what position the player actually played.

82games.com's positional splits tend to correlate well with sportsVU positional defense tracking.   I would refer to them long before using the bb-ref numbers.

And they have Hayward at pretty much an even 50/50 split between the 2 & the 3 this last year.  That also correlates well when you look at the 5-man units that Hayward spent the bulk of his time in.  If you look at those, there is no way he spent hardly any time (if any) at PF. 
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Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2017, 09:09:07 AM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Start with Smart, and hope that by the end of the year it's either clearly Brown's starting spot or Smart's starting spot in a good way (ie, if Brown just looks awesome and beats out Smart as the season goes on, great; if Brown is in fact good but Smart takes another step forward, great).

Edit:

This is assuming IT at PG and Hayward at SF, either starting small with Crowder at 4 or Morris at 4 and Crowder off the bench.

Re: Who takes Avery Bradley's Spot in the Lineup?
« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2017, 06:42:12 AM »

Offline RockinRyA

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I think Brown did pretty dang good last year when he played SG with the starters. Stevens was able to hide his rookie mistakes and deficiencies by playing him with starters. By the time the playoffs started Brown was guarding SGs and SFs well enough to be a regular contributor. Brown is your starting SG this year.

As for his handle, remember when Bradley took over for Ray Allen? It was because he proved he could play NBA defense. Bradley's handle and shooting back then sucked. But he improved into a great two way player. I see Brown doing the same. And with Stevens all switch system of defense, Brown being able to guard multiple positions, much like almost everyone else except IT, will be key to him staying a starter.

I am actually excited to see Brown become a 20 year old starter on this team. I expect big things from him and Tatum this year. I think they are that good. They will be inconsistent but good.

Our numbers with the Horford-Jerebko-Crowder-Brown-Thomas lineup was our best the entire season.