Author Topic: With a weaker Eastern Conference, could the Celtics win 60+ games this season??  (Read 3861 times)

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Offline SHAQATTACK

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IF IT had his hip fixed 60 is a,done deal.  Probably that flew,out the window with him procrastinating surgery .

Offline CFAN38

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I'm not so confident that this teams wins more regular season games then they did last year. The combination of needing to build chemistry between new players, the large quantity of young players, and IT coming off of the hip injury could cause some earlier season losses.

I do think this team is more talented then last years and will be a much better match-up for the Cavs in the playoffs. 

Offline nickagneta

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The only way this team wins 60+ games is if their top 10 rotational guys have excellent health all year. If Horford goes down for 10-12 games, IT misses a bunch because of his hip or any other important player goes down for a considerable amount of time, this team will have to turn to inexperienced NBA players. That means losses and no 60 win season.
couldn't you say that about any really good team
Not really. Most really good teams won't win 60+ games, that's only for elite teams. And elite teams usually have 3 or sometimes 4 current or former All-Stars on their team and have very good, experienced benches. We have 3 All-Stars but an extremely inexperienced bench.

If the starting lineup is IT, Hayward, Crowder, Morris, Horford that means our entire bench...10 other players have...have a combined 11 years of NBA experience. If the starters aren't healthy its most likely we don't get anywhere near 60 wins

Offline Moranis

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.
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Offline nickagneta

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IF IT had his hip fixed 60 is a,done deal.  Probably that flew,out the window with him procrastinating surgery .
Its been reported that IT will not need surgery and will be ready to go at the start of camp

Offline Surferdad

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.
No sorry, that is pretty easy to disprove.  Just list out all the player movements so far in this off-season.  The vast majority of GOOD players who changed conferences went East to West with Hayward being a notable exception, followed distantly by JJ Reddick and Jeff Green.

Offline bdm860

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.

Not disagreeing with anything you're saying here, but I have an interesting tidbit about Miami.

On the 7/7 Lowe Post podcast, Tom Haberstroh was a guest (ESPN Insider), and regarding Miami he said he did the research and when you look at the 10 biggest surges in win % from the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half of the season over the last 20 years, that following season's record doesn't reflect the 2nd half prior season win % but rather the whole prior season win %.  So if you're trying to project what Miami will do this year, use the entire '17 season, not the 2nd half. (Both Lowe and Haberstroh said they expect high 40's out of Miami next year).

He then used Portland as the most recent example.  In 2016 they were 17-24 (34 win pace) in the first half of the season, and then 27-14 in the 2nd half of the season (54 win pace), finishing 44-38, then this year after bringing everyone back and adding to the team (Turner!) they ended up finishing 41-41.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19897425
Starts around 28 minute mark if anybody really cares (first 10 minutes talks about Bradley trade and C's which many here may be interested in as well).

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Offline Moranis

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.
No sorry, that is pretty easy to disprove.  Just list out all the player movements so far in this off-season.  The vast majority of GOOD players who changed conferences went East to West with Hayward being a notable exception, followed distantly by JJ Reddick and Jeff Green.
Good players on bad teams, doesn't alter the conference that much is the point I'm making.  Atlanta won 43 games.  Indiana won 42 games.  Chicago won 41 games.  Those teams were average teams.  Obviously the players that moved make Minnesota, Oklahoma City, and Denver better teams than they were and make those 3 mediocre teams in the East worse, but I think those mediocre teams are easily replaced by other mediocre teams in the East who got better.  Charlotte added Dwight Howard.  He makes them better.  Detroit got Bradley, he makes them better.  Miami added Olynyk to a team that closed on a 60 win pace for half the season.  They will be better.  Giannis will continue to get better and the Bucks should make another jump in wins.  The Jazz and Clippers were both 51 win teams and both will almost certainly be a lot worse next year (replaced in the standings by the Thunder and Wolves most likely). 

This notion that the East got worse and the West got better from top to bottom, I just don't buy.  The West had 3 great teams and 2 very good teams last year.  The West still has 3 great teams (Houston got even better) and might have 3 very good teams this year (or it might just be 2 very good teams like last year).  The bottom of the West is still going to be very bad though.  LA, Sacto, and Phoenix will rival Brooklyn, Atlanta, and Orlando as the worst teams in the league.   Dallas isn't going to be very good either.  Memphis is declining and lost some key vets (and still hasn't re-signed Green).  They will be mediocre at best. 
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Offline Moranis

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.

Not disagreeing with anything you're saying here, but I have an interesting tidbit about Miami.

On the 7/7 Lowe Post podcast, Tom Haberstroh was a guest (ESPN Insider), and regarding Miami he said he did the research and when you look at the 10 biggest surges in win % from the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half of the season over the last 20 years, that following season's record doesn't reflect the 2nd half prior season win % but rather the whole prior season win %.  So if you're trying to project what Miami will do this year, use the entire '17 season, not the 2nd half. (Both Lowe and Haberstroh said they expect high 40's out of Miami next year).

He then used Portland as the most recent example.  In 2016 they were 17-24 (34 win pace) in the first half of the season, and then 27-14 in the 2nd half of the season (54 win pace), finishing 44-38, then this year after bringing everyone back and adding to the team (Turner!) they ended up finishing 41-41.

http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=19897425
Starts around 28 minute mark if anybody really cares (first 10 minutes talks about Bradley trade and C's which many here may be interested in as well).
I don't think Miami will win 60 games or anywhere near that, but I do think they are a pretty solidly above .500 and a playoff team by bringing everyone back and adding KO. 
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Online Darío SpanishFan

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.

I don't think you can support that. The East was very bad, and it has become awful, talent-wise.

Offline nickagneta

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I get what Moranis is saying. The mediocre teams in the East that lost stars will be worse and some less than mediocre teams will take their place making the conference as a whole about the same...recordwise.

Where I think his logic fails is that a mediocre team from the West will be a much better team than a mediocre team from the east. The top three teams in the West are going to be better than the best team in the East. The West's mediocre teams will be about as good as the top teams in the East. The bad teams in both conferences are bad, with the East having more bad teams.

So overall, yeah Moranis is right in a way given how the East will come out but there is a difference in overall quality between a 40 win or 50 win team in the East and a 40 or 50 win team in the West. The West's mediocre teams are just better teams than the East's making the West the better overall conference.

Offline dreamgreen

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It's possible but they would have to gel right out of the gate add to that I don't know what is going on with IT injury wise. I'd say it's more likely they win 54-57.

Offline RockinRyA

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I'm not sure the East is really that much weaker.  I mean it isn't like Butler, George, and Millsap were on good teams.  Toronto should still be pretty good.  Washington should still be pretty good.  I expect Milwaukee to take a pretty decent jump into that group (i.e. high 40's, low 50's in wins).  Philadelphia, Charlotte, and Detroit should all be better and will basically replace Atlanta, Chicago, and Indiana in the standings.  Miami was on a 60 win pace for half the season and return their team (with the addition of KO).   

Boston is still pretty clearly the second best team in the East (though may again end up as the 1 seed), but I think this notion that the East got a lot worse is a stretch.  Some teams will move around, but I expect a pretty similar level of play from the East on the whole.
No sorry, that is pretty easy to disprove.  Just list out all the player movements so far in this off-season.  The vast majority of GOOD players who changed conferences went East to West with Hayward being a notable exception, followed distantly by JJ Reddick and Jeff Green.
Good players on bad teams, doesn't alter the conference that much is the point I'm making.  Atlanta won 43 games.  Indiana won 42 games.  Chicago won 41 games.  Those teams were average teams.  Obviously the players that moved make Minnesota, Oklahoma City, and Denver better teams than they were and make those 3 mediocre teams in the East worse, but I think those mediocre teams are easily replaced by other mediocre teams in the East who got better.  Charlotte added Dwight Howard.  He makes them better.  Detroit got Bradley, he makes them better.  Miami added Olynyk to a team that closed on a 60 win pace for half the season.  They will be better.  Giannis will continue to get better and the Bucks should make another jump in wins.  The Jazz and Clippers were both 51 win teams and both will almost certainly be a lot worse next year (replaced in the standings by the Thunder and Wolves most likely). 

This notion that the East got worse and the West got better from top to bottom, I just don't buy.  The West had 3 great teams and 2 very good teams last year.  The West still has 3 great teams (Houston got even better) and might have 3 very good teams this year (or it might just be 2 very good teams like last year).  The bottom of the West is still going to be very bad though.  LA, Sacto, and Phoenix will rival Brooklyn, Atlanta, and Orlando as the worst teams in the league.   Dallas isn't going to be very good either.  Memphis is declining and lost some key vets (and still hasn't re-signed Green).  They will be mediocre at best.

Actually it does. You arent just playing Washington-Cleveland-Raptors. The mere fact that some of the East teams got weaker means there are better chances of sweeping them, which correlate to what we are talking about here, additional wins.

Offline Moranis

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I get what Moranis is saying. The mediocre teams in the East that lost stars will be worse and some less than mediocre teams will take their place making the conference as a whole about the same...recordwise.

Where I think his logic fails is that a mediocre team from the West will be a much better team than a mediocre team from the east. The top three teams in the West are going to be better than the best team in the East. The West's mediocre teams will be about as good as the top teams in the East. The bad teams in both conferences are bad, with the East having more bad teams.

So overall, yeah Moranis is right in a way given how the East will come out but there is a difference in overall quality between a 40 win or 50 win team in the East and a 40 or 50 win team in the West. The West's mediocre teams are just better teams than the East's making the West the better overall conference.
True, but that was the same last year.  The top 3 teams in the West last year all had better records than Boston.  The 4th and 5th team in the West last year (Utah and LAC) both are going to be much worse and will be replaced both in record and strength by OKC and Minnesota.  I just don't really see a whole lot of difference from last year to this year.  The West is still the better conference, but I don't think the East is really any worse this year than last year.  A team like Philly, for example, is going to add the last two # 1 picks and presumably will have Embiid for more than 31 games (and added Redick, Amir, and Bayless will play more than 3 games).  Accounting for that, is Philly this year going to be any different than Atlanta, Indiana, or Chicago last year.  I just don't see it.  And the four top seeds in the East, will all still be basically the same teams or better than last years versions and I fully expect Milwaukee to make the jump into that same general range. 

And I will say again just to be clear, the West is much better than the East.  I just think it was last year at roughly the same amount as it will be this year.
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Offline nickagneta

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I get what Moranis is saying. The mediocre teams in the East that lost stars will be worse and some less than mediocre teams will take their place making the conference as a whole about the same...recordwise.

Where I think his logic fails is that a mediocre team from the West will be a much better team than a mediocre team from the east. The top three teams in the West are going to be better than the best team in the East. The West's mediocre teams will be about as good as the top teams in the East. The bad teams in both conferences are bad, with the East having more bad teams.

So overall, yeah Moranis is right in a way given how the East will come out but there is a difference in overall quality between a 40 win or 50 win team in the East and a 40 or 50 win team in the West. The West's mediocre teams are just better teams than the East's making the West the better overall conference.
True, but that was the same last year.  The top 3 teams in the West last year all had better records than Boston.  The 4th and 5th team in the West last year (Utah and LAC) both are going to be much worse and will be replaced both in record and strength by OKC and Minnesota.  I just don't really see a whole lot of difference from last year to this year.  The West is still the better conference, but I don't think the East is really any worse this year than last year.  A team like Philly, for example, is going to add the last two # 1 picks and presumably will have Embiid for more than 31 games (and added Redick, Amir, and Bayless will play more than 3 games).  Accounting for that, is Philly this year going to be any different than Atlanta, Indiana, or Chicago last year.  I just don't see it.  And the four top seeds in the East, will all still be basically the same teams or better than last years versions and I fully expect Milwaukee to make the jump into that same general range. 

And I will say again just to be clear, the West is much better than the East.  I just think it was last year at roughly the same amount as it will be this year.
Yup...I agree.