Debatable.
I would say we will be either on par or perhaps slightly worse this year, but our future (around 2 years from now) is much brighter after these moves.
Losses:
Amir Johnson
Jonas Jerebko
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
James Young
Mickey
Gerald Green
Zeller
Gains:
Gordon Hayward
Jayson Tatum
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Semi Ojeleye
Abdel Nader
Daniel Theis
Ante Zizic
Yabusele
With growth we should expect from Brown and Smart it's very hard for me to see how the current roster doesn't project to be better than last year's. But anything is possible.
Smart has shown close to zero growth since he entered he league 3 or 4 years ago. When you have a guy who has the motor and work ethic that Smart has and STILL shows minimal sign of development over a 3-4 year span, that leaves me leaves me with serious doubts about whether he's capable of improving or whether he simply is who he is. As it stands I'm not expecting anything from Smart beyond what he's given is the last few years, as far as I'm concerned any gains on the Smart front should be treated as an unexpected bonus.
Brown certainly has upside, and I do expect improvement. However he's still very young and (aside from one game) did not dominate Summer League as I would have expected him too, so again I'm going to be cautious and expect only minor gains to start the season, with more development hopefully coming by around the All-Star break.
We know what we will get from Hayward, and that is a highly efficient all-round scorer and playmaker. He's a guy who has extremely high offensive efficiency (at around 0.38 points per FGA) due to combination of:
a) His ability to hit the here at a high rate
b) His ability to get to the free throw line and convert there at a high rate
c) His overall solid percentages
He'll give us a dependable scorer night in, night out who will help take a lot of the load off Thomas which will be huge.
Baynes I feel could be the wildcard acquisition for us. I like the size, toughness, physicality and rebounding that he brings. He gives us some nice insurance for Zizic in case the youngster takes longer than expected to develop. I wish we could count on those attributes for longer periods of time on the court, but his past history (never playing more than 16 MPG, and average of 5.1 fouls Per 36 last season) indicate that he'll likely struggle to stay on the court for more than 15-20 MPG. Still think he could make a big impact in those minutes though, and brings a grit that we haven't really had since Perk.
Morris I really have mixed feelings about. I like his length and defensive versatility on the perimeter and think it'll be a big help against Cleveland and GS if we get that far. I also like his motor, his physicality, and the fact he plays hard every night. That said I am a concerned about his outside shooting (which is very streaky), his rebounding (which is consistently horrendous) and his offensive play style (which is lots of ISO and not a lot of team play). I'm a bit worried he will provide all the ball stopping of Carmelo Anthony minus the talent.
Tatum could be another wildcard. I think he is an NBA ready scorer right now, and better then advertised as both a defender and rebounder. But I've only seen him against Summer League competition, so that could change dramatically once he faces actual NBA talent. My hopes are high, but we'll have to wait and see. He could be the difference maker for us and may well be starting at the small-ball PF by the end of the season.
The rest of the guys we are getting are too hard to call, because ultimately they're all rookies who haven't played a single minute of NBA basketball. Nader? Semi? Zizic? Theis? We have no idea what we will / won't get from any of those guys, with and I'm not sure if any of them will be able to produce on a consistent basis for us.
The challenging part is that we are losing a bunch guys who aren't really standouts, but who are solid contributors - you kind of knew what you were getting out of them, and they had all been with the team long enough to have built strong chemistry with the coach an with each other.
I also worry a little about the locker room effects of the Avery Bradley trade. All reports are that he was loved around Boston much like Perkins, and I expect his loss to impact the team not only on the court, but also in the locker room. He might have been the closest thing Boston had to a true locker room leader the last couple of seasons...and I don't see any of the guys we added filling that role. It will put a lot of weight on Isaiah's shoulders to be the emotional leader for this team, because Horford seems too 'nice guy', Hayward doesn't seem interested in being a leader, Coach Stevens is too polite, and nobody else has it in them.
My big concerns are:
1. Rebounding:
The only capable rebounders on the team right now are Baynes (who's never played more than 16 MPG) and Zizic (who has not played an NBA game). I'm doubtful that either guy can be depended on to play more than 20 MPG. Once you go past those two guys our next best is probably 19 year old Jayson Tatum. There's a good chance that the Celtics will be
the worst rebounding team in the NBA this year, and that title hurt us enough when we had Pierce, Ray, Kevin and Rondo to carry us - it'll be hard to overcome it with this roster.
2. Defense:
Assuming we start Hayward at SG and Morris at PF (seems to make the most sense), I'm actually a bit worried about our perimeter defense. Hayward is coming from a team where he had George Hill (a solid defensive guard who can hold his own) at PG and Rudy Gobert (maybe the best rim protector in the NBA) at center. Now he comes to a team with one of the worst defensive PG's in the NBA and next to no rim protection at all. He not only has to keep a body on his own man defensively, he also has to help out on Thomas' man AN has to worry about not letting his guy get past him to the rim. I'm not sure how that Hayward/Thomas defensive pairing will go. I also worry a bit about the frontcourt. If we face a team with legit bigs (Aldridge, Drummond, Dwight, Gortat, Cousins, Davis, Embiid) we are going to get our butts absolutely handed to us. Horford has already shown he can't defend guys like that, and Morris is even less equipped for the task. We better hope and pray that Baynes and Zizic prove dependable, because we'll need a lot from them against bigger teams.
3. Chemistry:
We've lost around 4 o 5 guys who all had 2+ years of experience playing together, and have replaced them with 8 guys who have never played in our system - 5 of whom who have never played in an NBA game, period.
So while I feel we have improved a little on paper, the points above do leave me more than a little concerned.