Author Topic: Are we Better?  (Read 3812 times)

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Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #45 on: July 16, 2017, 06:36:41 PM »

Offline Greyman

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Marginally better but not ready to challenge GSW.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #46 on: July 16, 2017, 07:10:51 PM »

Offline Granath

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To be frank, I believe we are unequivocally better and really not even close. I would take this team 10 times out of 10 over last year's squad. The main reasons for this go as follows...

 8)*Please note I'm well aware that my views may be tinted by green colored glasses* 8)

1. I think Gordon Hayward is going to be a special fit in Boston and it will be far more impactful than people are giving him credit for. Hayward is an absolute stud moving into a system that fully utilizes his skill set. He has improved every year and in my opinion will have a unique on court bond with Horford, and provide Isaiah a pressure release valve unmatched by 95% of the players in the league.

2. We are such a bigger team than last year and the size difference from last year's squad will be stark from the first game we play. Look at the Warriors, they get all the credit in the world for being the most skilled team in the league(in history?) but arguably an equally important point is just how freaking large they are at every position. That size allows them to switch at everything on defense and shoot over nearly any defender on offense.

With the addition of Hayward, Tatum, Morris, Baynes, Semi, (Yabu?) and a conservative expectation of improvement from Smart and Brown I just don't see how we won't bully most teams at every spot save for Isaiah... and Isaiah clowns defenders whenever he gets the chance, degrading their self confidence. Bully ball at its finest.

3. Brad Stevens has so far made every roster put in front of him overachieve and now that we have arguably one of the more talented squads in the league I have no doubt that we will meet expectations and I will not count out that Brad will exceed them.

Bradley is a loss mitigated by rising young talent. Kelly is a loss mitigated by a shift to more physicality at the position. Nothing but clear skies for 2017 and beyond.

TP for this.

We are bigger, longer, stronger, more talented, deeper and more flexible than we were last year. We're vastly less experienced with our depth but still have plenty unless injuries kill us.

I just did an analysis of minutes played in a different thread but it boils down to this - 6 of our top 9 guys returned. Take out the 3 who are gone - Bradley, KO, Amir - and put in Hayward, Baynes and Morris and the new guys collectively played 1,300 more minutes last year than the old ones and are significantly more talented to boot.

After that we lose a lot of experience. And while guys like Zeller, Green and Jerebko knew the system and how they fit in it, their replacements are far more talented. Furthermore, those guys didn't really contribute all that much in many games and they're going to have to fight harder to see minutes.

This team is *significantly* better.  And if some of our new guys mature a bit faster than expected we will be a nightmare matchup for every other team in the league.
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #47 on: July 16, 2017, 07:46:23 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Debatable.

I would say we will be either on par or perhaps slightly worse this year, but our future (around 2 years from now) is much brighter after these moves.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #48 on: July 16, 2017, 08:26:05 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Debatable.

I would say we will be either on par or perhaps slightly worse this year, but our future (around 2 years from now) is much brighter after these moves.

Losses:
Amir Johnson
Jonas Jerebko
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
James Young
Mickey
Gerald Green
Zeller

Gains:
Gordon Hayward
Jayson Tatum
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Semi Ojeleye
Abdel Nader
Daniel Theis
Ante Zizic
Yabusele

With growth we should expect from Brown and Smart it's very hard for me to see how the current roster doesn't project to be better than last year's.   But anything is possible. 

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #49 on: July 16, 2017, 09:34:40 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Debatable.

I would say we will be either on par or perhaps slightly worse this year, but our future (around 2 years from now) is much brighter after these moves.

Care to elaborate why you feel this way?
I AM A CELTIC

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #50 on: July 16, 2017, 09:36:24 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Debatable.

I would say we will be either on par or perhaps slightly worse this year, but our future (around 2 years from now) is much brighter after these moves.

Losses:
Amir Johnson
Jonas Jerebko
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
James Young
Mickey
Gerald Green
Zeller

Gains:
Gordon Hayward
Jayson Tatum
Marcus Morris
Aron Baynes
Semi Ojeleye
Abdel Nader
Daniel Theis
Ante Zizic
Yabusele

With growth we should expect from Brown and Smart it's very hard for me to see how the current roster doesn't project to be better than last year's.   But anything is possible.

Smart has shown close to zero growth since he entered he league 3 or 4 years ago.  When you have a guy who has the motor and work ethic that Smart has and STILL shows minimal sign of development over a 3-4 year span, that leaves me leaves me with serious doubts about whether he's capable of improving or whether he simply is who he is.  As it stands I'm not expecting anything from Smart beyond what he's given is the last few years, as far as I'm concerned any gains on the Smart front should be treated as an unexpected bonus.

Brown certainly has upside, and I do expect improvement.  However he's still very young and (aside from one game) did not dominate Summer League as I would have expected him too, so again I'm going to be cautious and expect only minor gains to start the season, with more development hopefully coming by around the All-Star break.

We know what we will get from Hayward, and that is a highly efficient all-round scorer and playmaker.  He's a guy who has extremely high offensive efficiency (at around 0.38 points per FGA) due to combination of:

a) His ability to hit the here at a high rate
b) His ability to get to the free throw line and convert there at a high rate
c) His overall solid percentages

He'll give us a dependable scorer night in, night out who will help take a lot of the load off Thomas which will be huge. 

Baynes I feel could be the wildcard acquisition for us.  I like the size, toughness, physicality and rebounding that he brings.  He gives us some nice insurance for Zizic in case the youngster takes longer than expected to develop.  I wish we could count on those attributes for longer periods of time on the court, but his past history (never playing more than 16 MPG, and average of 5.1 fouls Per 36 last season) indicate that he'll likely struggle to stay on the court for more than 15-20 MPG.   Still think he could make a big impact in those minutes though, and brings a grit that we haven't really had since Perk.

Morris I really have mixed feelings about.  I like his length and defensive versatility on the perimeter and think it'll be a big help against Cleveland and GS if we get that far.  I also like his motor, his physicality, and the fact he plays hard every night. That said I am a concerned about his outside shooting (which is very streaky), his rebounding (which is consistently horrendous) and his offensive play style (which is lots of ISO and not a lot of team play).  I'm a bit worried he will provide all the ball stopping of Carmelo Anthony minus the talent.

Tatum could be another wildcard.  I think he is an NBA ready scorer right now, and better then advertised as both a defender and rebounder.  But I've only seen him against Summer League competition, so that could change dramatically once he faces actual NBA talent.  My hopes are high, but we'll have to wait and see.  He could be the difference maker for us and may well be starting at the small-ball PF by the end of the season.

The rest of the guys we are getting are too hard to call, because ultimately they're all rookies who haven't played a single minute of NBA basketball.  Nader?  Semi?  Zizic?  Theis?  We have no idea what we will / won't get from any of those guys, with and I'm not sure if any of them will be able to produce on a consistent basis for us. 

The challenging part is that we are losing a bunch guys who aren't really standouts, but who are solid contributors - you kind of knew what you were getting out of them, and they had all been with the team long enough to have built strong chemistry with the coach an with each other. 

I also worry a little about the locker room effects of the Avery Bradley trade.  All reports are that he was loved around Boston much like Perkins, and I expect his loss to impact the team not only on the court, but also in the locker room.  He might have been the closest thing Boston had to a true locker room leader the last couple of seasons...and I don't see any of the guys we added filling that role.  It will put a lot of weight on Isaiah's shoulders to be the emotional leader for this team, because Horford seems too 'nice guy', Hayward doesn't seem interested in being a leader, Coach Stevens is too polite, and nobody else has it in them.

My big concerns are:

1. Rebounding:
The only capable rebounders on the team right now are Baynes (who's never played more than 16 MPG) and Zizic (who has not played an NBA game).   I'm doubtful that either guy can be depended on to play more than 20 MPG.  Once you go past those two guys our next best is probably 19 year old Jayson Tatum.  There's a good chance that the Celtics will be the worst rebounding team in the NBA this year, and that title hurt us enough when we had Pierce, Ray, Kevin and Rondo to carry us - it'll be hard to overcome it with this roster. 

2. Defense:
Assuming we start Hayward at SG and Morris at PF (seems to make the most sense), I'm actually a bit worried about our perimeter defense.  Hayward is coming from a team where he had George Hill (a solid defensive guard who can hold his own) at PG and Rudy Gobert (maybe the best rim protector in the NBA) at center.  Now he comes to a team with one of the worst defensive PG's in the NBA and next to no rim protection at all.  He not only has to keep a body on his own man defensively, he also has to help out on Thomas' man AN has to worry about not letting his guy get past him to the rim.  I'm not sure how that Hayward/Thomas defensive pairing will go.  I also worry a bit about the frontcourt.  If we face a team with legit bigs (Aldridge, Drummond, Dwight, Gortat, Cousins, Davis, Embiid) we are going to get our butts absolutely handed to us.  Horford has already shown he can't defend guys like that, and Morris is even less equipped for the task.  We better hope and pray that Baynes and Zizic prove dependable, because we'll need a lot from them against bigger teams. 

3. Chemistry:
We've lost around 4 o 5 guys who all had 2+ years of experience playing together, and have replaced them with 8 guys who have never played in our system - 5 of whom who have never played in an NBA game, period. 

So while I feel we have improved a little on paper, the points above do leave me more than a little concerned.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 09:54:43 PM by crimson_stallion »

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #51 on: July 16, 2017, 09:38:34 PM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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Marginally better but not ready to challenge GSW.

I think we are significantly better against the rest of the league, Cleveland included.

But losing AB took away so much of what made us such a good matchup against Golden State. Can we really find another team that's played them as well as we have the last two seasons?
I AM A CELTIC

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #52 on: July 16, 2017, 10:02:21 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Marginally better but not ready to challenge GSW.

I think we are significantly better against the rest of the league, Cleveland included.

But losing AB took away so much of what made us such a good matchup against Golden State. Can we really find another team that's played them as well as we have the last two seasons?

Actually tbh that is the one thing that I think we've improved.

We did ok about GS, but our previous roster really didn't match up very well with them.  Horford against Green is fine, but it gets tough after that.

IT4 vs Curry = GS favor (5" advantage)
Bradley vs Klay = GS favor (Klay has a 6" advantage)
Crowder vs Durant = GS favor (Kd has around a 5" advantage and huge skill advantage)

With the new roster we will probably struggle more to contain Curry, but I think Hayward vs Klay is pretty evenly matched, while Morris will be much more effective against KD defensively then Crowder.

Admittedly, I think we match up a bit better against Cleveland too.

Hayward's size at the SG spot (and the fact that Hayward, Crowder, Morris can essentially all switch on D) I think makes us a more difficult matchup for those teams. 

Also Cleveland is going to probably have to put Lebron on Hayward now defensively, which will force him to expend some energy...rather than the past couple of years where theycoudl put JR Smith / Shumpert on IT and then Lebron could play lazy defense on Crwoder and never really had to try.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #53 on: July 16, 2017, 10:21:09 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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We're better on paper, we have to prove it on the court.   Nuff said.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #54 on: July 16, 2017, 11:12:40 PM »

Offline triboy16f

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yes

team has more size overall

a legit big that can take on the Gortat, Zaza of the world

add a top 5 worthy SF

and if brown, rozier, smart can collectively do a better job AB did alone on both ends (likely),.... this team is set

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #55 on: July 16, 2017, 11:16:35 PM »

Offline Dannys Chipotle Guy

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Marginally better but not ready to challenge GSW.

I think we are significantly better against the rest of the league, Cleveland included.

But losing AB took away so much of what made us such a good matchup against Golden State. Can we really find another team that's played them as well as we have the last two seasons?

Actually tbh that is the one thing that I think we've improved.

We did ok about GS, but our previous roster really didn't match up very well with them.  Horford against Green is fine, but it gets tough after that.

IT4 vs Curry = GS favor (5" advantage)
Bradley vs Klay = GS favor (Klay has a 6" advantage)
Crowder vs Durant = GS favor (Kd has around a 5" advantage and huge skill advantage)

With the new roster we will probably struggle more to contain Curry, but I think Hayward vs Klay is pretty evenly matched, while Morris will be much more effective against KD defensively then Crowder.

Admittedly, I think we match up a bit better against Cleveland too.

Hayward's size at the SG spot (and the fact that Hayward, Crowder, Morris can essentially all switch on D) I think makes us a more difficult matchup for those teams. 

Also Cleveland is going to probably have to put Lebron on Hayward now defensively, which will force him to expend some energy...rather than the past couple of years where theycoudl put JR Smith / Shumpert on IT and then Lebron could play lazy defense on Crwoder and never really had to try.
we matched up really well with KD-less GSW.

We matchup better with GSW now.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #56 on: July 17, 2017, 07:41:24 AM »

Offline Fred Roberts

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IT4 is hurt.  Torn hip labrum? Serious injury .... and he hasn't had surgery. He'll probably have to but is clearly hoping it heals naturally.

IT4's health is a major IF. Not sure why it isn't a bigger discussion point. He was the best player last season and may be limited significantly this year.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #57 on: July 17, 2017, 07:47:52 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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IT4 is hurt.  Torn hip labrum? Serious injury .... and he hasn't had surgery. He'll probably have to but is clearly hoping it heals naturally.

IT4's health is a major IF. Not sure why it isn't a bigger discussion point. He was the best player last season and may be limited significantly this year.

it does not heal naturally ,pain subsides , but the tear is still there and and now the whole thing is weakened and more,easily inflamed from ruff treatment.   normal people with normal jobs could,exsist ok.  His game requires the quick acceleration and deceleration ,  landing hard on his butt nearly ever game his,legs are knocked out from under him. To make up for be short he has to leave the ground and the return jolt is very hard on those hips.  Controling the swelling and pain will. as a NbA player will be very hard.  Maybe this,is,why the trainers left ....not wantimg to deal,with players like IT.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #58 on: July 17, 2017, 08:28:14 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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I just said the same thing on the 60+ win topic.


This team is more talented then last years but the young, IT injury, and lack of chemistry early in the season is going to cost them some wins. Come the playoffs they will be a more competitive team vs the cavs. One injury to Irving or Love and the Cs are playing in the finals. 

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #59 on: July 17, 2017, 08:33:08 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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IT4 is hurt.  Torn hip labrum? Serious injury .... and he hasn't had surgery. He'll probably have to but is clearly hoping it heals naturally.

IT4's health is a major IF. Not sure why it isn't a bigger discussion point. He was the best player last season and may be limited significantly this year.

it does not heal naturally ,pain subsides , but the tear is still there and and now the whole thing is weakened and more,easily inflamed from ruff treatment.   normal people with normal jobs could,exsist ok.  His game requires the quick acceleration and deceleration ,  landing hard on his butt nearly ever game his,legs are knocked out from under him. To make up for be short he has to leave the ground and the return jolt is very hard on those hips.  Controling the swelling and pain will. as a NbA player will be very hard.  Maybe this,is,why the trainers left ....not wantimg to deal,with players like IT.

One fear I have is that IT is avoiding surgery in order to play for his contract. If he had surgery and was out till Dec/Jan and then had to play himself back to 100% that would have affected his perceived value. Placing myself in his position and given the opportunity to play through the pain in order to earn enough money to set me for life, I can see why he might do it. Long term this is not good for IT or the Cetlics.

Lets hope the only motivation here is to be the best player he can be and that he truly will be healthy for the tart of the season.