Author Topic: Are we Better?  (Read 2121 times)

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Are we Better?
« on: July 16, 2017, 10:37:12 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I lined up all the changes to the roster as best I could.  Of course they are not all one for one but it worked out pretty close.  Try not to get bogged down in who may play SG or if you think Crowder will play PF.  Here is my analysis of this.

PG, no change, that is easy.  At SG, Hayward for Bradley is most likely the most impactful change.  I think the consensus is that this is an upgrade but my view is that this is closer than most people think.  More scoring yes but less defense and intangibles.  I also think Hayward is more durable which is important.

At SF, Tatum in for Green is an interesting one.  I view this as good for both the near term and the long term.

Our bigs is where there is the most change.  I see Morris for Johnson as an upgrade but Zizic in for Olynyk as a downgrade, at least to start.  The net of the combination may end up being a wash although Zizic may improve.  Baynes and Theis should be an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey but these are bench players who won't move the needle all that much.

Nader, Ojeleye, and who ever ends up replacing Jerebko just don't make that much difference.

I think this all adds up to us being only a little better than last year in terms of wins and loses but I like the roster much better in terms of how we are set up for the future.  Tatum, Zizic, and even Ojeleye are all nice additions.


Thomas      Thomas   
Smart        Smart   
Rozier        Rozier   
         
Bradley      Hayward    Up
Brown        Brown   
Hunter       Nader      Wash
         
Crowder      Crowder   
Green         Tatum      Up
Young         Ojeleye    Wash
         
Johnson       Morris      Up
Olynyk        Zizic         Down
Jerebko       TBD   
         
Horford      Horford   
Zeller         Baynes    Up
Mickey       Theis       Up

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2017, 10:58:26 AM »

Offline bellerephon

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I agree that the number of wins we can hope for should be modestly higher, not dramatically higher. I disagree about the impact of Hayward, however. I think he is a significant upgrade over Bradley.

Bradley has turned himself into a capable catch and shoot guy to go along with his excellent on ball defense, but really does not create his own shot. Hayward can put a lot more pressure on defenses than Bradley. Bradley's defense is certainly better than Hayward's on ball, but Hayward is a much better defender than many give him credit for, and his length should help in the team defense. He won't put the same kind of pressure on opposing ball handlers, but I think will be more effective in switches and the overall team defense may end up being better.


Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2017, 11:00:04 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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I don't think we need to do a "1 for 1" comparison.

Among rotation players, we added Hayward, Morris, Baynes and Tatum. We lost AB, KO, and Amir.  On paper, I think that's a big upgrade.  Plus, Jaylen and Smart will hopefully be better.

More importantly, we filled the role of secondary scorer and rebounding / rim protecting specialist.


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Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2017, 11:01:00 AM »

Offline billysan

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I just don't see the starting line that way and it's relevant IMO.

In my world we start

Baynes
Horford
Hayward
Brown
IT

With Crowder,  Smart  and Morris off the bench first based on need.

Next is Rozier,  Zizic and Tatum

As far as improvement,  Baynes is an upgrade over Amir and Hayward is an upgrade from Crowder.

Brown is a slight downgrade from Bradley but may bring more offense. I think he will be more versatile this year especially on defense.

The bench switches Olynyk, Green, Jerebko  and Brown to Crowder, Morris,  Zizic and Tatum with Rozier and Smart the same. Without trying to compare player to player, I take the second 4 over the first 4 as a group anytime.
"First fix their hearts" -Eizo Shimabuku

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2017, 11:08:15 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Hayward was the big prize of the off-season and we got him. I absolutely loved what AB brought to our team and he will be missed, but Hayward is huge. The rest of the comparisons don't really even matter.

In saying that, you have Zizic in for KO when it should be Baynes for KO. That is a much more even trade-off. Zizic is going to be deep bench until he proves to better than Baynes (less likely) or Baynes moves on after this season (more likely).

tl;dr - we are DEFINITELY better!
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 11:18:47 AM by jambr380 »

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2017, 11:11:25 AM »

Offline Smitty77

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I lined up all the changes to the roster as best I could.  Of course they are not all one for one but it worked out pretty close.  Try not to get bogged down in who may play SG or if you think Crowder will play PF.  Here is my analysis of this.

PG, no change, that is easy.  At SG, Hayward for Bradley is most likely the most impactful change.  I think the consensus is that this is an upgrade but my view is that this is closer than most people think.  More scoring yes but less defense and intangibles.  I also think Hayward is more durable which is important.

At SF, Tatum in for Green is an interesting one.  I view this as good for both the near term and the long term.

Our bigs is where there is the most change.  I see Morris for Johnson as an upgrade but Zizic in for Olynyk as a downgrade, at least to start.  The net of the combination may end up being a wash although Zizic may improve.  Baynes and Theis should be an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey but these are bench players who won't move the needle all that much.

Nader, Ojeleye, and who ever ends up replacing Jerebko just don't make that much difference.

I think this all adds up to us being only a little better than last year in terms of wins and loses but I like the roster much better in terms of how we are set up for the future.  Tatum, Zizic, and even Ojeleye are all nice additions.


Thomas      Thomas   
Smart        Smart   
Rozier        Rozier   
         
Bradley      Hayward    Up
Brown        Brown   
Hunter       Nader      Wash
         
Crowder      Crowder   
Green         Tatum      Up
Young         Ojeleye    Wash
         
Johnson       Morris      Up
Olynyk        Zizic         Down
Jerebko       TBD   
         
Horford      Horford   
Zeller         Baynes    Up
Mickey       Theis       Up

What was our GREATEST WEAKNESS last year?  Well, it could be two-fold.  Lack of rebounding and being one of, if NOT the SOFTEST team on the interior.  Zizic helps to fix that.  35 rebounds in the last three summer games!!!  Olynyk was horrifically and frustratingly INCONSISTENT and was an absolute terrible one on one post defender and a weak rebounder.  I think Zizic, based on our needs, makes us better NOW.

Saying that Baynes and Theis SHOULD BE an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey is truly laughable!!!  Baynes was rated out as the 10th best center defender last year according to defensive RPM on ESPN's plus/minus!!!  Zeller was absolutely a TERRIBLE defender!!  Mickey should NOT even be mentioned as he could NOT even dominate for our Red Claws!!  Theis was the defensive player of the year in his German Pro League!!!  Come on man!!

Regarding Nader and Semi vs. Jerebko.  I LOVED JJ, but Nader to literally about do it all.  I saw him play in PERSON twice at the Greensboro Swarm.  In the first game on February 24th, he dropped 32 with 9 assists, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block!!  I see a lot of Evan Turner in Nader.  He can facilitate, rebound, score, and is a pretty good defender (which ET was not, but ET did play decent D in his last year in Boston!!)!!

Tatum for Green is a HUGE up!!  Tatum can flat be a good defender, but GG could not be a good defender on his BEST day.  And I loved me some GG and regularly drove about 2 hours each way to see GG and Amir play for the Fayetteville Patriots!!

If we do NOT win 60 games with this team in the weak Eastern Conference (an upgrade from the 53 we won last year!!), I will be disappointed.

Smitty77

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2017, 11:13:29 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I just don't see the starting line that way and it's relevant IMO.

In my world we start

Baynes
Horford
Hayward
Brown
IT

With Crowder,  Smart  and Morris off the bench first based on need.

Next is Rozier,  Zizic and Tatum

As far as improvement,  Baynes is an upgrade over Amir and Hayward is an upgrade from Crowder.

Brown is a slight downgrade from Bradley but may bring more offense. I think he will be more versatile this year especially on defense.

The bench switches Olynyk, Green, Jerebko  and Brown to Crowder, Morris,  Zizic and Tatum with Rozier and Smart the same. Without trying to compare player to player, I take the second 4 over the first 4 as a group anytime.

I was trying to frame this as a discussion about who is added vs. who is subtracted, not who starts or who plays what position.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2017, 11:15:02 AM »

Offline gouki88

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We are massively better.
Quote from: PhoSita
It's not rational, but sports fandom isn't supposed to be.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2017, 11:20:33 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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Hayward was the big prize of the off-season and we got him. I absolutely loved what AB brought to our team and he will be missed, but Hayward is huge. The rest of the comparisons don't even really matter.

In saying that, you have Zizic in for KO when it should be Baynes for KO. That is a much more even trade-off. Zizic is going to be deep bench until he proves to better than Baynes (less likely) or Baynes moves on this season (more likely).

tl;dr - we are DEFINITELY better!

Yeah, you could look at it that way, Olynyk out for Baynes and Zeller out for Zizic.  I don't see Olynyk+Zeller as even with Baynes+Zizic.  I think we have a net subtraction on that one.  Olynyk signed for 4 years $50M, Baynes signed for 1 year $4M.  It is all part of Blog debating but "the market" put a much higher value on Olynyk.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2017, 11:21:20 AM »

Offline adam8

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I really hope that this years jaylen brown and last years jaylen brown are not the same thing, we should see progress in the young guys I think Marcus will be a more competent point guard next year as he looked a lot better at it last year. Terry rozier might even start to show some consistency now by his third year. I don't think anyone will really regress much to counteract the young guys progress.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2017, 11:24:36 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I lined up all the changes to the roster as best I could.  Of course they are not all one for one but it worked out pretty close.  Try not to get bogged down in who may play SG or if you think Crowder will play PF.  Here is my analysis of this.

PG, no change, that is easy.  At SG, Hayward for Bradley is most likely the most impactful change.  I think the consensus is that this is an upgrade but my view is that this is closer than most people think.  More scoring yes but less defense and intangibles.  I also think Hayward is more durable which is important.

At SF, Tatum in for Green is an interesting one.  I view this as good for both the near term and the long term.

Our bigs is where there is the most change.  I see Morris for Johnson as an upgrade but Zizic in for Olynyk as a downgrade, at least to start.  The net of the combination may end up being a wash although Zizic may improve.  Baynes and Theis should be an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey but these are bench players who won't move the needle all that much.

Nader, Ojeleye, and who ever ends up replacing Jerebko just don't make that much difference.

I think this all adds up to us being only a little better than last year in terms of wins and loses but I like the roster much better in terms of how we are set up for the future.  Tatum, Zizic, and even Ojeleye are all nice additions.


Thomas      Thomas   
Smart        Smart   
Rozier        Rozier   
         
Bradley      Hayward    Up
Brown        Brown   
Hunter       Nader      Wash
         
Crowder      Crowder   
Green         Tatum      Up
Young         Ojeleye    Wash
         
Johnson       Morris      Up
Olynyk        Zizic         Down
Jerebko       TBD   
         
Horford      Horford   
Zeller         Baynes    Up
Mickey       Theis       Up

What was our GREATEST WEAKNESS last year?  Well, it could be two-fold.  Lack of rebounding and being one of, if NOT the SOFTEST team on the interior.  Zizic helps to fix that.  35 rebounds in the last three summer games!!!  Olynyk was horrifically and frustratingly INCONSISTENT and was an absolute terrible one on one post defender and a weak rebounder.  I think Zizic, based on our needs, makes us better NOW.

Saying that Baynes and Theis SHOULD BE an upgrade over Zeller and Mickey is truly laughable!!!  Baynes was rated out as the 10th best center defender last year according to defensive RPM on ESPN's plus/minus!!!  Zeller was absolutely a TERRIBLE defender!!  Mickey should NOT even be mentioned as he could NOT even dominate for our Red Claws!!  Theis was the defensive player of the year in his German Pro League!!!  Come on man!!

Regarding Nader and Semi vs. Jerebko.  I LOVED JJ, but Nader to literally about do it all.  I saw him play in PERSON twice at the Greensboro Swarm.  In the first game on February 24th, he dropped 32 with 9 assists, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 block!!  I see a lot of Evan Turner in Nader.  He can facilitate, rebound, score, and is a pretty good defender (which ET was not, but ET did play decent D in his last year in Boston!!)!!

Tatum for Green is a HUGE up!!  Tatum can flat be a good defender, but GG could not be a good defender on his BEST day.  And I loved me some GG and regularly drove about 2 hours each way to see GG and Amir play for the Fayetteville Patriots!!

If we do NOT win 60 games with this team in the weak Eastern Conference (an upgrade from the 53 we won last year!!), I will be disappointed.

Smitty77

All good discussion.  My point with Baynes and Theis is that I don't think they will play an important enough role to move the needle all that much.  Same with Nader and some others.  I like all those pieces though.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2017, 11:26:49 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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I really hope that this years jaylen brown and last years jaylen brown are not the same thing, we should see progress in the young guys I think Marcus will be a more competent point guard next year as he looked a lot better at it last year. Terry rozier might even start to show some consistency now by his third year. I don't think anyone will really regress much to counteract the young guys progress.

I agree with that in terms of young players improving.  Smart, Rozier, Brown all should improve and be a net addition.

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2017, 11:33:54 AM »

Offline billysan

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I just don't see the starting line that way and it's relevant IMO.

In my world we start

Baynes
Horford
Hayward
Brown
IT

With Crowder,  Smart  and Morris off the bench first based on need.

Next is Rozier,  Zizic and Tatum

As far as improvement,  Baynes is an upgrade over Amir and Hayward is an upgrade from Crowder.

Brown is a slight downgrade from Bradley but may bring more offense. I think he will be more versatile this year especially on defense.

The bench switches Olynyk, Green, Jerebko  and Brown to Crowder, Morris,  Zizic and Tatum with Rozier and Smart the same. Without trying to compare player to player, I take the second 4 over the first 4 as a group anytime.

I was trying to frame this as a discussion about who is added vs. who is subtracted, not who starts or who plays what position.

I know and I tried to answer saying I compare different players based on different criteria.

Like the comment about Olynyk  Zeller vs Baynes Zizic.  If we are talking market then Olynyk  Zeller  wins hands down. I think Baynes Zizic will adress our interior defense and rebounding much better though. All 4 are NBA  big men, but with different skill sets. If  we compare Olynyk  passing to Baynes rebounding then it is a matter of need and what helps us most. That's part of the reason we didn't keep Olynyk.  We needed something else.

Thanks for the thread anyway. TP
"First fix their hearts" -Eizo Shimabuku

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2017, 11:41:30 AM »

Offline CELTICSofBOSTON

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60 wins

The 1 on 1 comparison isn't perfect but i'll give it a shot:

Gordon Hayward > Avery Bradley
Marcus Morris > Kelly Olynyk
Aron Baynes = Amir Johnson

Jaylen Brown > Jaylen Brown last year
Terry Rozier > Terry Rozier last year
Marcus Smart > Marcus Smart last year

Jayson Tatum > Jonas Jerebko
Ante Zizic = Tyler Zeller

Semi Ojeleye and Guerschon Yabusele > James Young and Jordan Mickey
Abdel Nader > Demetrious Jackson

Re: Are we Better?
« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2017, 11:47:05 AM »

Offline liam

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I think we are clearly better but it does remain to be seen. A Basketball team is always more than a sum of it's parts. There are a lot of new players to integrate into the team. Last years team was a very tight group. This team looks very good for the regular season, in that it's a very deep team. Brad will play loads of these guys this year. I think by the time The Celtics get to the playoffs they should be a tight cohisive  unit.  Unfortunately it's a loooong time until training camp. I can't wait to see what this team has.